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Wed Jan 22, 2014, 06:34 AM

facebook will soon lose 80 percent of its users study says

http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-users-study-says/

Social media like a disease that spreads wuickly then dies.

65 replies, 5434 views

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Arrow 65 replies Author Time Post
Reply facebook will soon lose 80 percent of its users study says (Original post)
arely staircase Jan 2014 OP
yellowcanine Jan 2014 #1
MattBaggins Jan 2014 #15
joshcryer Jan 2014 #23
Lizzie Poppet Jan 2014 #39
azurnoir Jan 2014 #2
greymattermom Jan 2014 #3
avebury Jan 2014 #10
TexasProgresive Jan 2014 #12
bobclark86 Jan 2014 #47
sendero Jan 2014 #4
glowing Jan 2014 #5
arely staircase Jan 2014 #8
glowing Jan 2014 #11
RKP5637 Jan 2014 #32
newfie11 Jan 2014 #6
shenmue Jan 2014 #7
customerserviceguy Jan 2014 #21
RKP5637 Jan 2014 #34
Lex Jan 2014 #42
riqster Jan 2014 #9
davidpdx Jan 2014 #14
groundloop Jan 2014 #13
Arugula Latte Jan 2014 #40
Codeine Jan 2014 #58
anneboleyn Jan 2014 #54
Quantess Jan 2014 #16
CFLDem Jan 2014 #17
anneboleyn Jan 2014 #55
Blanks Jan 2014 #18
Heywood J Jan 2014 #19
arely staircase Jan 2014 #20
laundry_queen Jan 2014 #24
marlakay Jan 2014 #48
onenote Jan 2014 #22
PasadenaTrudy Jan 2014 #25
hfojvt Jan 2014 #28
RKP5637 Jan 2014 #35
SteveG Jan 2014 #50
NightWatcher Jan 2014 #26
Coyotl Jan 2014 #27
anneboleyn Jan 2014 #57
frogmarch Jan 2014 #29
babydollhead Jan 2014 #45
Cha Jan 2014 #62
Brainstormy Jan 2014 #30
Tommy_Carcetti Jan 2014 #31
Inkfreak Jan 2014 #36
pipi_k Jan 2014 #38
geek tragedy Jan 2014 #33
wercal Jan 2014 #37
jberryhill Jan 2014 #43
wercal Jan 2014 #46
jberryhill Jan 2014 #63
wercal Jan 2014 #64
jberryhill Jan 2014 #65
Johonny Jan 2014 #41
Sunlei Jan 2014 #44
magical thyme Jan 2014 #49
jtuck004 Jan 2014 #51
magical thyme Jan 2014 #52
jtuck004 Jan 2014 #53
we can do it Jan 2014 #56
AngryAmish Jan 2014 #59
nyquil_man Jan 2014 #60
TeamPooka Jan 2014 #61

Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 06:45 AM

1. Well one first has to accept the premise that social media follows a disease model.....

A huge premise to accept.
More likely, social media follows something more like a technology adoption model. In that case, Facebook will be around until something replaces it, which could be Facebook version 2.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:26 AM

15. Bingo. It's like saying cars on the road, or TVs in our house will suddenly plummet 80%

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 10:05 AM

23. They make a bold prediction, which will be tested by the end of this year.

20% reduction by the end of 2014.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:12 PM

39. Agreed. The "death of Facebook" will be a more popular alternative.

 

Facebook has already faded away in terms of popularity among kids and teens. They overwhelmingly use social media via smartphones (and to a lesser degree, tablets), and there are better choices than Facebook for those devices.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 06:56 AM

2. Now if only they could come up with a vaccination..........

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 06:59 AM

3. Ad block

It's so easy to block the ads on facebook. I use it to keep up with my kids and grandkids, but I use adblock. Most of my friends have stopped looking at it but haven't actually quit. How can they make money from that?

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Response to greymattermom (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:40 AM

10. What is the easiest way to block

the ads on Facebook?

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Response to avebury (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:44 AM

12. I don't Facebook but ADBlock is an addon for

Mozilla Firefox browser. I don't see any ads on any site.

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Response to avebury (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 01:06 PM

47. As a Chrome user...

I use AdBlockPlus, which lets me hide elements on a page.

I also haven't seen an ad on YouTube in a year.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:01 AM

4. I think the article is a stretch at best..

.. but look at how fast the once mighty MySpace tanked. I agree with another poster here, as soon as something "better" (not objectively but subjectively) comes along Facebook will be toast.

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Response to sendero (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:14 AM

5. It loaded to slowly and wasn't quick enough to link conversations.

 

But I did like the general idea of it.. And Facebook used to be limited to age. Now that everyone and everything is on it, it's kind of like e-mail. U check it so often, catch up a little bit, but there's so much crap on it, it's just another item that we must have to keep up with PTA and football and school announcements.

I remember when it was so fun to hear "you've got mail". Now, it's mindless crap most of the time to send into the trash box.

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Response to glowing (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:19 AM

8. checking e-mail has indeed become a great chore

Both my personal and work accounts are 90 percent crap that is not useful. It is a very inefficient way of communicating. I often miss messages that were kinda important because they were like needles in haystacks of bullshit.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:41 AM

11. No kidding, 1 day equals at least 50-100 emails.

 

It's used for work and personal use.. Anything job related gets shoved into an email I want to use. What's the point of maintaining 2 accounts to weed out.. So it's all in 1 spot and ridiculous. I feel like dealing with email is like having a job now.. Lol.

And yes, it's not the best way sending things about, but it's semi-private still and like the fax machine, there's still bed of it.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:50 AM

32. Do you use an automatic sorting mechanism on incoming email ... All of my incoming

email sorts to folders, then, I occasionally check the folders. Some of it's just crap that is sometimes fun to read, but my important email gets automatically sorted into respective folders. It's not as bad now, but in my heavy work days I often had around 2,000 or so emails in my active folders.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:16 AM

6. I like Facebook for talking to friends all over the world

As well as my kids and friends in America.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:17 AM

7. They've predicted its death many times before

Never seems to happen.

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Response to shenmue (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 09:56 AM

21. It does enough things to sabatoge itself

I've forbidden my lady to go to it on my computer, she can mess up her own with the spyware and the browser misdirections that they scatter all over a computer's hard drive. Facebook is malware, and as soon as enough sheep figure that out, it'll be on a death spiral.

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Response to customerserviceguy (Reply #21)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:52 AM

34. Yep, I've always thought of Facebook as one giant spyware app. n/t

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Response to shenmue (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:23 PM

42. EXACTLY. nt

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 07:20 AM

9. "The study, which has not been peer-reviewed"...

All I needed to see. Premature publication.

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Response to riqster (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:24 AM

14. I agree

Let them submit it for publication and see if it withstands scrutiny.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:20 AM

13. There might be something to this - my daughter and her friends have quit Facebook

So, judging by that small sample size I think the author might be onto something. Plus, it gets annoying as hell hearing all about what color someone painted their fingernails or what they fed their cats for lunch.

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Response to groundloop (Reply #13)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:15 PM

40. Facebook seems to be the social media outlet of choice for the over-35 crowd.

 

Middle aged people seem to enjoy the pace and format of Facebook, while the teens/20s crowd has moved on to Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, etc. But I don't see many middle aged people adopting those (at least, not that I'm aware of -- I'm one who is just sticking to Facebook).

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Response to Arugula Latte (Reply #40)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:37 PM

58. That's a plus in my book.

 

I watch my fiancee using Snapchat and Instagram and it seems quite silly and pointless; social media without all those confusing words and conversations.

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Response to groundloop (Reply #13)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:26 PM

54. Yes. It is not "cool" anymore. I noticed that younger users (20s and teens) were starting

to leave a few years ago. Teens don't want their parents and everyone else having access as "friends." That and the spam (the "do you love Jesus" crap that goes around), non-stop advertising and tricky use of users' info were I think the beginning of the end for Facebook.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:26 AM

16. Predicted to happen between 2015 and 2017

Could be...

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:44 AM

17. I don't even access mine anymore.

 

Way too much going on in my feed from way too many people I'll never see again.

I suppose I could pare down friends but I don't want to completely lose contact.

I guess mines more of an aquaintance-book than anything....

Now twitter and snapchat- those are much less annoying.

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Response to CFLDem (Reply #17)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:28 PM

55. Exactly. We stopped using ours for similar reasons.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 08:56 AM

18. Oddly, I cheer for Facebook going the way of the dinosaurs...

It's great that I can see what people that I haven't seen for decades are up to, but the format sucks for discussions.

If they had the indent for side discussions feature that is here at DU, I would like it better.

I expect something better will come along though, and everyone will migrate there. Just like they did from MySpace. I thought it might be google+, but that doesn't appear to be going to happen.

Every time they update Facebook - I like it less.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 09:25 AM

19. No one could have foreseen this.

Now I'm off to let every one of my ICQ friends know! I might just post it on Myspace.

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Response to Heywood J (Reply #19)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 09:39 AM

20. I actually found out about on facebook

True

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Response to Heywood J (Reply #19)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 10:15 AM

24. LOL forgot about ICQ

geez that's so 90's. I somehow managed to miss the myspace boat.

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Response to laundry_queen (Reply #24)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 01:13 PM

48. Lol I met my husband on ICQ

Looking for someone girl or guy to hike with. We got talking over a few weeks then went out.

That was 15 yrs ago.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 10:01 AM

22. I'd bet against that prediction

First, something will have to come along to replace it.
Second, unlike some earlier social media, Facebook transcended age. (How many people over the age of 40 did you know who used MySpace?) The fact that an older generation has adopted FB as a means of staying in touch with friends and family suggests to me that it isn't going to disappear all that soon. Indeed, some of the younger users abandoning it now may just return to it as they get a older.

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Response to onenote (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:31 AM

25. I did!

I met my boyfriend at 42 on MySpace. We've been together seven years now. So, I am very grateful for MySpace I did leave Facebook a couple years ago when they added that timeline thing. It just got too visually overwhelming for me. I'm really enjoying Twitter, I follow a lot of writers, artists, and other interesting people.

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Response to onenote (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:46 AM

28. nothing needs to replace it

Just the human attention span. I've already seen people go through phases where they post on FB a lot and then quit. It turns out you are NOT really "staying in touch with old friends" because the old friends neither post all that much, check the site all that much, or respond to your posts all that much.

If people really wanted to stay in touch, they could exchange email addresses.

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Response to hfojvt (Reply #28)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:56 AM

35. Yep, that's what I do and IMO email works extremely well for that. Also, I'm not

interested in the 'group experience' on FB and nebulous friends, etc. Additionally, I feel I have more control with email as to what is occurring and my privacy.

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Response to onenote (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 01:47 PM

50. I agree

Most of the people I know who use facebook are over 40, many in the late 60's and 70's. I also note that many tend to be in affinity groups, political, High School Class, clubs, etc. I'm in my 60's and don't have the patience for Twitter and the newer social media, but then I have an attention span greater than a flea. One of the things I like about it, is that I've reconnected with a number of old friends who I'd lost contact with over the years, mostly because of moves.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:36 AM

26. I can see that happening.

Every time my friend ( 38 years old) posts a funny or a slightly rude comment, his grandma and/or mom comes on to correct him or chastise his use of swear words. I can see the kids getting tired of using the same social media as their mom. No one wants to post party pics when mom might see them.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:44 AM

27. It is obviously already happening. We Facebook users are seeing the impact already.

 

People have disappeared in droves, especially the young crowd. Still a lot of retirees there, and activist stuff.

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #27)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:33 PM

57. That's what we noticed -- "kids" in their twenties and so on leaving in huge numbers.

That does not look good for Facebook in the long term.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:47 AM

29. I love Facebook!

Not only am I treated to frequent pictures of my kids, grandkids and great-granddaughter, I can renew old friendships and stay in touch with friends and acquaintances from days of yore.

Because of Facebook I’ve also reconnected with my first real boyfriend. He loved me 50+ years ago and still does. Much to mr. froggy’s disapproval. I like that.

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Response to frogmarch (Reply #29)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:45 PM

45. that's been fun for me. finding old loves.

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Response to frogmarch (Reply #29)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 10:40 PM

62. I love it too, frogmarch. I'm a relatively recent

convert. Started out slow but am gaining speed. It's fun fun fun. My son is on there with his wife.. Lots of Democratic sites for me.. plus old dear friends in NY and California.

Good connect with ol boyfriend. Reminds of a movie I just saw with Barbra Streisand and Seth Rogan .. Very Funny!

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:47 AM

30. Mostly just teenagers leaving

the old folks have ruined it for them.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:49 AM

31. I'd rather Twitter die first.

And that it die a horrible, painful, humiliating death.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #31)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:00 PM

36. Ya, it's a sewer pipe of obnoxiousness. (nt)

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #31)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:04 PM

38. If I could coat

Twitter with honey and leave it out in the sun to attract biting ants I would.

I decided to give it a try a couple of years ago.

Most worthless piece of shit I've ever seen.

Or maybe I just feel that way because I've never liked, or been good at, "cocktail party conversation". Shallow little one-liners for people with limited attention spans.

Which probably describes nearly everyone under the age of 18 or so...

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:52 AM

33. Nobody eats there anymore, it's too crowded. nt

 

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:01 PM

37. Lets not forget, Facebook is getting sued

Link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/18/us-facebook-ipo-lawsuit-idUSBRE9BH0VD20131218

Why are they getting sued? In short, they are accused of hiding information about problems with their business model when they went public. Most of these problems revolve around the fact that pop up ads are a lot less effective on mobile devices. I also think, as the suit progresses, Facebook will have to fess up and acknowledge that a measureable percentage of users are duplicate accounts, which will ultimately reduce their advertising rates. Quite frankly, this suit may trigger a criminal investigation...not so good for Facebook.

Anecdotally, the young people in my life are using it less (and Twitter and Instagram more). Now Instagram is owned by Facebook....but I don't think Facebook will continue to have enough cash to buy up pseudo competitors forever. Instagram will eventually be replaced by something else (Snapchat?), and that's the way I see these sites going - a rapid rise, followed by a Myspace cliff. I just can't imagine Facebook being 'cool' in ten years, since it will be what 'mom and dad' use. Something else will have taken its place - and probably a lot sooner than ten years from now.

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Response to wercal (Reply #37)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:25 PM

43. Any large business is always being sued for something

 

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #43)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:45 PM

46. I don't think this is a 'run of the mill' lawsuit

What is alleged is criminal - insider trading. The creative forces behind Facebook, like Zuckerberg, will be devoting their energy towards keeping this from snowballing into a criminal investigation. I think it will be a large distraction, as its more than 'just money' on the line.

And just a general sense of exasperation can drain the energy of the top brass. I can't remember the last time I saw a positive story about Zuckerberg or Facebook. All I see are stories about privacy complaints, people changing citizenship before selling stock to avoid taxes, and of course the glitches during the IPO, and now the accusations of hiding information before the IPO. Facebook may be becoming a lot less 'fun' to work at, and that slowly takes a toll.

BTW, one of the litigants in the suit is the public employee pension fund of California. This isn't some small fry who can be bought off for a half million dollars - it looks very likely to go to trial....and Facebook will get even more bad press.

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Response to wercal (Reply #46)

Sat Jan 25, 2014, 10:51 AM

63. It's a mundane derivative suit

 

It's a classic shareholder derivative suit - "I invested in this POS and lost money, so now I'm going back to the prospectus to allege you omitted to warn about something that happened."

The suit is not about insider trading. The suit claims that FB failed to disclose that increase in mobile platforms was already eating into their revenue. Instead, they only warned that increase in mobile platforms would possibly eat into their revenue.

This kind of lawsuit is extremely common.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #63)

Sat Jan 25, 2014, 04:38 PM

64. You say it isn't insider trading...

http://m.tmz.com/#Article/2012/06/04/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-sued-insider-trading

..then you describe insider trading.

Here is another story describing what Zuckerberg is facing. Note the article terms it (correctly) as insider trading. There is nothing ordinary about insider trading being alleged in a huge ipo like this.

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Response to wercal (Reply #64)

Sat Jan 25, 2014, 10:35 PM

65. If it brings down Facebook, I'll buy you a beer

 

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:20 PM

41. Posting about the death of social media and a social media board seems ironic.

The one clear thing is social media will survive and prosper although no one knows which companies will ultimately come to dominate the market. It would be hard to bet against the company with a lot of capital to invest for the future though.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 12:38 PM

44. 52 week 22.67 - 59.31 - time to sell?

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 01:27 PM

49. well, I may do my part toward killing it off in a hurry...

 

I've stubbornly refused to join Facebook. However, there are a couple of clubs I would very much like to join, but their interaction is strictly facebook, so I've been toying for a few weeks with breaking down an joining Facebook.

I can pretty much guarantee, the minute I do, the death knell for Facebook will begin to toll. It's just my karma or something. Club, company, dinner party. I join something. It dies.

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Response to magical thyme (Reply #49)

Wed Jan 22, 2014, 11:19 PM

51. Have you thought about becoming a Republican? I mean, if

 

you have a skill, you should consider developing it, finding ways to practice. Especially if it brings you joy.

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Response to jtuck004 (Reply #51)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 12:48 PM

52. the crux of the problem is that it must be something that brings me joy...

 

Alas, the mere thought of becoming republican brings me heartburn.

And while the thought of becoming republican with the sole purpose of killing them off *does* bring me joy, that also reverses the karma. Instead of dying off, they would probably gain strength. I'd be miserable, of course, and horrified.

And everybody here on DU would consider me as something well below a turd...

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Response to magical thyme (Reply #52)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:08 PM

53. lol. n/t

 

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:31 PM

56. good riddence

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 09:44 PM

59. So?

 

There will be other ways of showing people my food.

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Response to AngryAmish (Reply #59)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 10:24 PM

60. +1 nt

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Thu Jan 23, 2014, 10:37 PM

61. My MySpace page is waiting for everyone to return. nt

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