Speculation on MH370 aircraft demise

[AnalystInParadise]

Let's have a thread where we have a polite discussion on what could have gone wrong with MH370 that is now missing and presumed lost.

EDIT: Interesting, I saw this after my post. http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/09/Missing-MAS-flight-Uighur-link/

It could be simple mechanical failure, it could be explosive decompression, it could be many things. My job is as an analyst and this region is not my focus, but I have an interesting theory. I believe there is a low level insurgency against the Chinese government. The knife attacks a few weeks ago killed dozens and it seems that a Uighur separatist group are the source of that attack. Here is what we know about MH370. Over half the flights passengers were Chinese nationals. There were two passports that were stolen and used by someone, these passports were Austrian and Italian. Uighurs can pass for southern Europeans in certain cases due to appearance. Also there is the luggage snafu, it would not difficult to bribe airport workers in a country like Malaysia to look the other way for a baggage switch, hell it isn't that difficult in this country

I have no proof, I have no evidence, all we have is the mystery. But I could see a logical path where two Uighurs travelling on false passports could be on a mission to bring down a plane full of Chinese nationals. It fits the definition of terror in being random, unexpected, and effective.

Any evidence that negates my theory is VERY likely to occur, but until more evidence is secured, this seems a potential. Any one else have any theories?

Honestly flight failure of the airframe is probably the most likely. But the fact that there was a recent terror attack in China, most of the passengers were Chinese and the plane originated in a Muslim country lead me to SPECULATE, that's all this is speculation. Let's hear what you have.

[okaawhatever]

1. I'm not speculating, but I'll add some info:

The authorities are currently looking into 4 individuals.
The FBI has gotten involved, supposedly because 3 Americans were on the flight, and that may well be true, don't know
The US has sent an aircraft crash expert from Atlanta to work on this.
The two individuals bought their tickets together, although they each had different ending destinations. They were both scheduled to go to Amsterdam then one onto Italy (I believe) and the other somewhere else in Europe.
The aircraft may have turned back. That is curious since a mechanical issue would have had the pilots looking for the nearest airport and that was almost certainly in Vietnam.


Okay, just wanted to throw that in.

[AnalystInParadise]

3. Excellent points

We definitely have some non-normal activities surrounding this flight. I don't want to raise the flag of conspiracy because I generally don't believe in them, but there are some odd things about this.

[FarCenter]

16. Debris may account for the radar indication that the plane was turning back

It was apparently at the edge of the Malaysian radar's range. If it came apart in an explosion, the radar return from the debris which was suddenly slowing (and some may have been ejected backwards) may have appeared to be an indication of turning.

[1000words]

2. Interesting thesis

What do you suppose is the beef, in particular? What are it's goals?

[AnalystInParadise]

4. Attack on Chinese interests

in other words pure terror. The only thing holding me back is no one has claimed credit for it. That makes my theory difficult to sustain.

But, Al Qaeda offshoots don't always claim attacks, it makes them susceptible to counter targeting efforts.

[FarCenter]

5. A simple mechanical failure would not disable communications before a Mayday could be sent

Mechanical failure is possible, but it would have to be a major failure, such as a fuel tank explosion, an engine detaching, a wing failing or a major fuselage failure like the Aloha 737.

[AnalystInParadise]

6. Indeed

I am leaning away from mechanical, but am not yet ready to say it is human initiated yet. Need something to confirm my beliefs. I really do think this could be connected to the Uighur separatists. Something odd happened here.

[BlueStreak]

17. Right, and if the plane turned around without sending out a distress message?

That would be pretty strange. News reports today implied that radar indicated the plane did a 180 before it disappeared. I would be curious to know the timing of that. If the maneuver happened in the last minute before the plane disappeared, then it is entirely possible that mechanical failure left no time to send out a distress call.

A 180 for mechanical reasons doesn't make a lot of sense because I believe the closest land was Viet Nam, so they would have tried to head there.

If terrorists had captured the flight crew but not entered the cockpit, perhaps they could have ordered a return to Kuala Lampur or some other destination, and then if interrupted they might have set off an explosive. That seems like a scenario that would fit the reported facts, except that if terrorists were not in the cockpit, then the pilots should have put out a distress message.

Another scenario is that there was a catastrophic problem and the indication of a 180 was not an intentional pilot action, but just happened as the plane was going down.

[FarCenter]

19. I wonder whether the Malaysia Airlines pilots lock the cockpit doors

Or maybe they were rushed when one left the cockpit.

The terrorisms possibilities seem to either be that a bomb caused catastrophic destruction or that the radar transponder was turned off in the cockpit after a takeover by terrorists.

[FourScore]

21. There is this past incident. Those people are very lucky to be alive.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/08/1283269/-Families-struggle-with-Six-Mysteries-about-missing-plane-during-second-full-day-of-searching

Lib Dem FoP brings to our attention This Detailed Report:

I offer this as another possibility rather than a set theory so that people do not focus entirely on a terrorist explanation.

An Egypt Air 777 encountered a cockpit fire just before take off. This report on the outcome of the inquiry has some interesting elements:

The photos in that article show a huge hole below the FO's window. What if this, or another case of an aircraft not complying with the plans in respect to another detail, cause such a fire at cruising height. Remember this involved the oxygen supply to one of the crew and was intense because of it. That would mean the fire could be maintained even at a height that would normally not support combustion readily.

Such a scenario, possibly taking out the communications and avionics, would have had a devastating effect and could account for the lack of a mayday and attempts to return to land without notifying ATC.

[AnalystInParadise]

7. LOL

I just saw this now.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/09/Missing-MAS-flight-Uighur-link/

[FarCenter]

9. Yes, I had also read the bit about Malaysia being a Uighur's target due to the deportations to China

Relying only on a passport that is carried by a person is poor security. The agents should always check with the home countries authoritative database to see whether it is valid and not revoked, as well as getting biometric to be used to check identity.

Note that cell phones always check the home registry. If phones can do it, so can passport control.

[villager]

8. Then there were the 20 employees from "Freescale Semiconductor" on board.

Which could be coincidence, if they were all going to/coming from a meeting, gathering, factory, etc.

But with that many from a single company on a single flight that meets an untimely end, I suppose it's at least worth asking what the company was up to, or what someone else might have thought they were up to.

[longship]

10. That seems to be a bit of a reach.

There's 220+ people on an airliner. There are always going to be collections of people with a common origin. A company booking a flight for a group is going to inevitably book them together, on the same flight.

So that's not much of a surprise. And certainly nothing to trigger any warning bells.

These post hoc explanations are always going to be incorrect. It is going to take forensics to solve this, if they ever find the plane's wreckage.

Meanwhile, speculation is just going to feed the conspiracy theories.

[AnalystInParadise]

11. Perhaps

but this is a message board. But we do have some indicators that suggest something other than mechanical failure. Indicators are what drive intelligence collection. So for me it is not a conspiracy to speculate on indicators.

[longship]

13. One should not discount catastrophic failure.

Airliners are pretty tough as long as the airframe maintains integrity. But the outer skin is pretty damned thin. It is reinforced by ribs which gives it rigidity without sacrificing the flexibility it needs. Watch the wings bend on an airliner the next time you fly. That's good. They are made to do that.

But if the integrity of fuselage breaks down, the whole thing would break up quickly, possibly without warning.

Yup! A bomb could do that. But so could weakness from a previous collision, which this airplane had.

I'd rather not speculate beyond that. We may never know if they don't find the wreckage.

[jsr]

20. It was a bunch of company engineers/managers traveling as a group to a meeting

probably to a management/operations review or product meeting. The Freescale people on the flight were local employees based in either Kuala Lumpur or Tianjin. Group travel is fairly common in the electronics business with overseas assembly plants.

[malaise]

12. The problem with this theory is that the passports were stolen over two years

so why would they be connected to a very recent railway attack.
Something catastrophic happened and the aircraft turned around but never signaled anyone.
Debris is appearing now - we'll soon have a clue.

[AnalystInParadise]

14. Passports can be sold on the black market

Happens in the Maghreb of Africa a lot.

[malaise]

15. We'll see n/t

[morningfog]

18. No confirmed debris from missing jet: Malaysian official

A Malaysian official said Monday that no confirmed debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane has been found yet.

"Unfortunately ... we have not found anything that appears to be objects from the aircraft, let alone the aircraft itself," Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, director general of the Department of Civil Aviation, said at a press conference here.

Vietnamese authorities, he added, have not confirmed the reported finding of some objects believed to come from Flight MH370, which lost contact with traffic control in the wee hours of Saturday with 239 people on board.

http://www.ecns.cn/2014/03-10/104111.shtml

[Crepuscular]

22. Mentioned in another thread

that the two individuals traveling on stolen passports had their tickets booked by the same travel agency and that the bookings were conducted by an Iranian middleman, not directly by the passengers. That kind of makes you go Hmmmm....
Two people traveling together on stolen passports on tickets obtained through an Iranian connection.

In addition, the physical description of the passenger traveling on the stolen Italian passport did not appear to be that of your typical Uighur.