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nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:24 PM Mar 2014

Russian troops massing on the Ukranian border

MOSCOW — With a referendum on secession looming in Crimea, Russia massed troops and armored vehicles in at least three regions along Ukraine’s eastern border on Thursday, alarming the interim Ukraine government about a possible invasion and significantly escalating tensions in the crisis between the Kremlin and the West.

The announcement of the troop buildup by Russia’s Defense Ministry was met with an unusually sharp rebuke from Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who warned that the Russian government must abandon what she called the politics of the 19th and 20th centuries or face diplomatic and economic retaliation from a united Europe.


Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk in Independence Square in Kiev on Feb. 27. Many thought him out of place during the opposition rallies.Ukraine’s New Premier, the ‘Rabbit,’ Seems to Be in His ElementMARCH 12, 2014
“There are a lot of variants here, which is why it is urgent that we have this conversation with the Russians,” Secretary of State John Kerry said.Kerry Plans 11th-Hour Meeting With Russians Over CrimeaMARCH 12, 2014
“Ladies and gentlemen, if Russia continues on its course of the past weeks, it will not only be a catastrophe for Ukraine,” she said in a speech to the German Parliament. “We, also as neighbors of Russia, would not only see it as a threat. And it would not only change the European Union’s relationship with Russia. No, this would also cause massive damage to Russia, economically and politically.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/14/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0

So how does the board feel about quite possibly Cold War II, or worst?
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Russian troops massing on the Ukranian border (Original Post) nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 OP
I call it another good reason to not interfere in squabble. Tierra_y_Libertad Mar 2014 #1
there will be no cold war. Russia doesn't have the game for it. geek tragedy Mar 2014 #2
I think at a minimum, we have have another Cold War. If Putin invades Ukraine, then neverforget Mar 2014 #3
I agree, I think this is a guns of august scenario nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #4
Well that didn't take long bigdarryl Mar 2014 #5
Or AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #6
Unless... look back a hundred years nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #7
I expected it to go this far AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #13
For the moment, economically nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #15
But how AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #19
Article five nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #21
How does Article 5 AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #23
I said if POLAND invokes it nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #26
I am not trying to be a jerk AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #29
Tense, it could be as simple as a fighter getting too close to a border nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #35
Putin doesn't want Poland AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #44
Right now I expect economic sanctions and saber ratttling nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #49
That I can agree with AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #56
That is where events can take a life of their own nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #61
If we were dealing with a truly important part of the globe AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #65
That is where miscalculations come in nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #68
I can agree with that AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #69
And to me this is more like 1913 leading to 1914 nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #77
If the Brits are not serious AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #31
The brits have been giving signals that they want out of the EU nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #39
The Fulda Gap? rdharma Mar 2014 #40
So, you think that the US and Europe won't punish him economically? geek tragedy Mar 2014 #10
Europe won't punish Russia too hard AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #14
Well, we tend to reward certain other countries for occupations and illegal annexations Scootaloo Mar 2014 #55
I bash the hell out of Israel for doing geek tragedy Mar 2014 #60
Good. Our government doesn't Scootaloo Mar 2014 #64
It 's a big deal because it is a big deal geek tragedy Mar 2014 #71
Okay. Can you tell me why? Scootaloo Mar 2014 #72
It doesn't AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #75
For one, it's an unstable situation. geek tragedy Mar 2014 #78
So really, it IS just "Because Russia"? Scootaloo Mar 2014 #79
Well, if China tried to annex part of Korea or Thailand there would geek tragedy Mar 2014 #80
Ironically AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #83
Unlikely in any event because Russia was able to do a soft annexation geek tragedy Mar 2014 #84
People are trying to make this a big deal AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #74
That's sort of been my thought Scootaloo Mar 2014 #76
That's pretty naive view. KGB has nothing on CIA. functioning_cog Mar 2014 #36
Huh? AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #57
You and Putin underestimate the CIA at your peril functioning_cog Mar 2014 #59
What? AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #62
I'll bet you a DU donation of $10 the U.S. will go functioning_cog Mar 2014 #63
Let's define Serious bats AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #67
I want to say that I agree with both you and Nadin, bemildred Mar 2014 #91
A bully bullies. Not shocked at who supports this bully. William769 Mar 2014 #8
I think your bully analogy does not really work nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #9
There will be consequences for Crimea, let alone the rest of Ukraine. geek tragedy Mar 2014 #11
How? AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #20
Asset freezes on Russia's plutocratic buddies for one. geek tragedy Mar 2014 #22
And what would Russia's response be? AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #24
Unknown, probably torpedo Iran deal. nt geek tragedy Mar 2014 #25
Two initial steps AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #28
Winter is over. Europe--unlike North America-- geek tragedy Mar 2014 #42
Yeah actually we have AnalystInParadise Mar 2014 #54
Good analysis. Spot on. go west young man Mar 2014 #89
The U.S. does not need Russia. It will drag Europe kicking and screaming functioning_cog Mar 2014 #41
He's the worst kind of bully... one_voice Mar 2014 #30
Agreed! William769 Mar 2014 #47
I like worst Brother Buzz Mar 2014 #12
Das ist mir Wurst. nt rdharma Mar 2014 #48
worse? sad-cafe Mar 2014 #16
"At this time, the United States, will no longer accept the Russian Ruble as currency." Separation Mar 2014 #17
That is not too shocking actually. It follows the economic punishment nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #18
The U.S. can bury Russia economically AND functioning_cog Mar 2014 #43
Translates to: sacrifice more US middle class to do it, just like Iraq and Afghanistan... pragmatic_dem Mar 2014 #66
No. Reagan cold war + Reagan tax cuts destroyed middle class. functioning_cog Mar 2014 #70
we have even more income disparity and our war on terror, war on drugs, war on immigration, ... pragmatic_dem Mar 2014 #90
Apparently this development is a complete surprise to NSA and CIA who have just pragmatic_dem Mar 2014 #27
Folks need to pick a spot. Last I heard, CIA started Ukraine functioning_cog Mar 2014 #45
I want to believe that even CIA isn't that fucking stupid. On other hand situation is totaly FUBAR pragmatic_dem Mar 2014 #52
Sorry...dupe..I just posted this cilla4progress Mar 2014 #32
Not a problem nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #37
... seems Sunday will likely be a catalyst. My gut feeling is it's only the beginning, that this RKP5637 Mar 2014 #33
I did not expect him to go this far nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #38
His style reminds me of the strong armed dictatorial leaders in my youth. He seems RKP5637 Mar 2014 #51
I know exactly what you mean nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #53
I think Putin is an evil bigot. hrmjustin Mar 2014 #34
Why what a coincidence, that's what I think too! NuclearDem Mar 2014 #46
I would like to add one qualifier nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #50
Very true! hrmjustin Mar 2014 #73
I think Putin will open Olive Garden restaurants in Crimea ... kwassa Mar 2014 #58
..and they're all armed with e-cigs!!! U4ikLefty Mar 2014 #81
You know, your attempt at humor fails nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #82
Yes it was juvenile. I guess I should hang around adults more often, but U4ikLefty Mar 2014 #85
Even more juvenile nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #86
My issues result from smoking too much e-crack in the car with my toddler. U4ikLefty Mar 2014 #87
And even more juvenile. nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #88
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
2. there will be no cold war. Russia doesn't have the game for it.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:27 PM
Mar 2014

It's a regional power, not a global one.

If Russia liked its experience in Afghanistan, it would love the fallout from invading Ukraine.

Ukraine has a large border, plenty of opportunities for all kinds of people with scores to settle with Mother Russia to cross over and conduct (and arm) an insurgency.

Russia's rough treatment of the Muslim tatars in Crimea won't go unnoticed by the usual suspects.

That and it would get its sickly economy squashed like a grape.

neverforget

(9,513 posts)
3. I think at a minimum, we have have another Cold War. If Putin invades Ukraine, then
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:28 PM
Mar 2014

I think the chance of war goes way up, not that I think we want one, but because of miscalculations on both sides or some hothead firing the first shot.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
4. I agree, I think this is a guns of august scenario
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:31 PM
Mar 2014

and a hundred years later... almost poetic.

 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
5. Well that didn't take long
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:32 PM
Mar 2014

Putin is basically saying to everybody fuck you all I got 10,000 nuclear weapons and a lot of oil and gas to sell

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
6. Or
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:33 PM
Mar 2014

more likely if Russia actually follows through people will gnash their teeth for six months to a year and the go back to business as normal. Putin was a recruiter for the KGB, he knows how to size up people and predict their responses to stimuli. He knows the West in general will do nothing to stop him. It sucks that one of the smartest leaders on the planet is also one of the worst people on the planet. He knows how this dance is going to go. Still not sure he is going to actually pull the trigger on an invasion of Ukraine, but if he does it will be because he has rightly predicted that no one will SERIOUSLY stop him or try to stop him.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
7. Unless... look back a hundred years
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:36 PM
Mar 2014

there were plenty of those, the other side will not further escalate.

Just saying. I did not expect him to go this far, assuming those troops close the border that is.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
13. I expected it to go this far
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:55 PM
Mar 2014

and still expect a grab for Eastern Ukraine. But let's be honest Nadin, I have lurked this place forever, we both have some type of background in intelligence or analysis, so let's be honest........How exactly does Europe escalate this? With what? We surely won't

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
15. For the moment, economically
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:58 PM
Mar 2014

though they are moving forces forward (mostly fighters). That is the miscalculation that could be trouble

Let's be honest. When both WW I and WW II started we were all but ready. If it goes nuclear, well climate change will be solved, you and I won't be around, we both live in strategic targets, but how long that winter lasts, will be finally settled.

If it does remain conventional... as I said, WW I comes to mind, and in the same region, for the same reasons, or very similar. The only thing that has changed is the royal houses of Europe are gone.

And my background is only my advanced degree, but I like to try to look at things in depth. It is the escalation potential that gives me the creeps on this.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
19. But how
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:18 PM
Mar 2014

How does it escalate? Do you really see Western Europe riding to the rescue of the Ukraine? And if so, what means will they use.

And how, what catalyst would even push it to the possibility of nuclear? I am not making fun of you or attacking you, I am asking honestly, do you really see any path where this leads to a wider war? And what is that path? I cannot see, the people I work with cannot see it, granted we are just one shop in the IC, but I can see no set of second and third order effects that lead us to respond forcefully either through economics or worse. What we see is Russia having accurately and unfortunately for the Ukraine judged that the world won't react too harshly.

This is nothing like Europe in 1914 other than it being 100 years in the future. Again not attacking you, but what set of circumstances would lead to us getting involved, what set of circumstances would lead to nuclear exchanges? There aren't any for the nuclear question and I think it wildly irresponsible for anyone to claim it is a possibility. No one is going to detonate Megatons of nukes because of Kiev........

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
21. Article five
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:22 PM
Mar 2014

and Poland could invoke it if they feel threatened.

And none will detonate due to Kiev, you are right, but to stop forces from advancing down the Fulda Gap.

As I said, right now, economically. But if you think they are taking military options off the table, I will disagree. And no, I am not one who wants total war. Hell, I did not want a pretty low intensity conflict in the Levant either.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
23. How does Article 5
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:32 PM
Mar 2014

get invoked by a non Nato member? And you really expect all members of NATO to abide by an Article 5 request from Poland that will be under no threat? Cmon, Nadin? Seriously you think that could happen? An attack on the Ukraine does not equal 9/11 and the only invocation of Article 5 in Nato's history.

Good lord do you really see a scenario where the Russians advance into Western Europe? Honestly? you really can envision that? I promise I will not attack you, but you really can see that?

I want Putin to be brought to heel, but right now I think he understands the weakness of the West and knows how to exploit it.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
26. I said if POLAND invokes it
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:38 PM
Mar 2014


Now, per that map they are members of NATO. Why we have forces now deployed forward in POLAND and RUMANIA

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26521311

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20140313/NEWS08/303130042/First-F-16s-arrive-Poland-bolster-training-mission

So yes, there are many ways that a miscalculation could lead to that. We are not talking 911 either. but thanks for throwing that.
 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
29. I am not trying to be a jerk
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:47 PM
Mar 2014

I am asking legit questions. How is there a miscalculation. You keep saying if one occurs, you aren't telling me what that miscalculation could be......Do you really think Putin will continue into Poland? That would be a miscalculation. do you really think NATO will do anything to save only the Ukraine? That would be a miscalculation.....BUT what trigger events would cause this mythical miscalculation. Remember, I am not saying you are wrong, I am asking you to quantify your analysis, what any good analyst in disagreement with another would do.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
35. Tense, it could be as simple as a fighter getting too close to a border
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:52 PM
Mar 2014

or troops getting too close to a border. And we all know that people on trigger release can do things that in normal situations lead to just a bunch of screaming at each other, but it is not me calling it the worst crisis since the fall of the Berlin Wall, that be Angela Merkel.

I am not being a jerk either, but at least WW I came out from shit like this, after two years of war on and off in the Balkans. That one went to the races due to interlocking alliances that were trigger in the summer of 1914.

Now I suppose we could abandon Poland like we abandoned Poland in 1939 (and I mean the West, not the US, and I mean specifically England and France)

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
44. Putin doesn't want Poland
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:59 PM
Mar 2014

He wants to reestablish that buffer with the West while he rebuilds parts of the USSR but under Russian nationalism instead of Communism. Same reason he won't violate the Baltic Republics, he wants to rebuild his power bloc, not fight NATO. He wasn't in power to prevent the Baltics from leaving, so he will let them go. He will not do the same for the Ukraine. Hell I believe he would even let rump Ukrainian state survive, but one dictated by his whims.

RIGHT NOW (could change) I see no way the West gets involved even in an invasion. We might try sanctions, but sanctions against Russia have second and third order effects that could hurt us almost as bad so while we might try limited sanctions, I think right now that is as far as we could go.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
49. Right now I expect economic sanctions and saber ratttling
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:03 PM
Mar 2014

I also expect a few cuts to be quietly restored and a certain old plane to come back from the ashes, assuming they remember what that thing was designed for... remember that Fulda Gap?

But we all must be aware that things are indeed that tense.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
61. That is where events can take a life of their own
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:15 PM
Mar 2014

a silly example, Mexico was not going to enter WW II, until a few of her merchant navy vessels were sunk. That was not at all calculated by anybody.

Did Mexico play a critical role in the war? No, but where Marines slated to land on Operation Olympic? (and removed from the order of battle by day three) yes. Hiroshima and Nagasaki happened so they never landed.

I give that as a real minor example of things that can happen in far left field.

By the way, that is a piece of historical trivia, as well as Squadron 201, that flew in the South Pacific, and was as popular as the Red Tails in the ETO, and for the same reasons.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
65. If we were dealing with a truly important part of the globe
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:18 PM
Mar 2014

I would agree with you. But Ukraine is not the Levant, Middle East, North Africa, Strait of Moulacca, or South China Sea. It is not a fulcrum on the world stage, we will gnash our teeth and try sanctions, but hell even the Germans are starting to back off of sanctions.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-raises-stakes-crimean-standoff-putin-22805939

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
68. That is where miscalculations come in
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:21 PM
Mar 2014

in reality any worst case will not happen, but neither the best case. As usual it will be middle of the road situation.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
69. I can agree with that
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:25 PM
Mar 2014

Personally I think this is a Rhineland 1936 moment or an Austria 1938 moment rather than a Poland 1939 moment

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
77. And to me this is more like 1913 leading to 1914
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:37 PM
Mar 2014

and the Serbia and Montenegro crisis.

We are truly working from similar, but not quite the same frame of reference.

The only reason I am using the Balkans is that it is the same exact region, including the crimea

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
39. The brits have been giving signals that they want out of the EU
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:54 PM
Mar 2014

and at times I wonder from NATO

 

rdharma

(6,057 posts)
40. The Fulda Gap?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:55 PM
Mar 2014

The Fulda Gap is way inside Germany.

The Fulda Gap lost its strategic importance in 1990 with the reunification of Germany and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from East Germany.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
10. So, you think that the US and Europe won't punish him economically?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:40 PM
Mar 2014

Or do you think that only military tools are at our disposal?

Don't forget we fucked the USSR in Afghanistan. We could do it again in Ukraine if they were stupid and evil enough to invade.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
14. Europe won't punish Russia too hard
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:57 PM
Mar 2014

that's exactly what I am saying. They will appease the crocodile hoping it eats them last (metaphorically)

As for us, I imagine we will try, but will throw in the towel when we are hanging out there by ourselves. India and China surely won't punish Russia. And if you expect Germany to actually act aggressively (sanctions wise) towards Russia I have oceanfront property in Kansas to sell you.

Don't mistake my post, Russia and Putin are acting like nationalist criminals, but if you expect the world to unite in punishing them if they invade, I think you are wrong.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
55. Well, we tend to reward certain other countries for occupations and illegal annexations
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:08 PM
Mar 2014

So does germany, for that matter - Remember wh was helping Saddam's efforts to conquer Western iran?

If it weren't "The ruskies" I'm hard pressed to imagine a single American would ever give a flying fuck.

In fact i have a hard time imagining any poster on DU honestly gives a flying fuck, to be honest. Sounds like it's more about counting coup against other DU'ers than anything.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
60. I bash the hell out of Israel for doing
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:13 PM
Mar 2014

what Putin is doing and threatening to do. So do lots of others.

Putin is Bibi on steroids, complete with his Lieberman on steroids, Zhironovsky.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
64. Good. Our government doesn't
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:18 PM
Mar 2014

It doesn't bash Ethiopia or uganda when they did it, either. There was certainly no self-bashing going on in Afghanistan and iraq. And I really wonder if buying out a country's leadership is any better than what Russia is doing. We're shoulders-deep in China's behind, but haven't heard anything from the government about Tibet in a good long time...

Point being, it's just a little strange that suddenly this is a big deal, and I really can't help but wonder, if it were Suriname trying to annex part of Guyana, would it even reach CNN's news crawl?

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
71. It 's a big deal because it is a big deal
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:26 PM
Mar 2014

and because it is happening now and is not a fait accompli.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
72. Okay. Can you tell me why?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:30 PM
Mar 2014

i mean besides of course "OMG RUSSIA!"

i mean okay. First off, any nation trying to invade an annex another nation is a big deal. But what i want to know is why this instance apparently matters so much more. What has Crimea got, that Palestine, Tibet, Somaliland, Timor, Papua-new Guinea,Djibouti, Congo, et al lack?

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
75. It doesn't
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:34 PM
Mar 2014

this is because it is Russia. and the media need hard copy. I would like to see where we are six months from now if Putin goes in......

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
78. For one, it's an unstable situation.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:56 PM
Mar 2014

The others are more stable, for better or worse.

Two, it's in a more strategic location--in Europe, between Russia and the rest of Europe.

Three, there are big implications riding on the result--there's an oblast similar to Crimea in NATO member Lithuania--and there are majority-Russian provinces in all three Baltic states on their borders with Russia.

Four , the whiff of history repeating itself ala 1954 and 1968.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
80. Well, if China tried to annex part of Korea or Thailand there would
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:07 AM
Mar 2014

also be a huge freak out.

If Russia was trying to bite off a piece of Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, no one would give a shit.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
83. Ironically
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:18 AM
Mar 2014

I would care more if it was Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan because of the real dangers war in those two regions would mean.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
84. Unlikely in any event because Russia was able to do a soft annexation
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:23 AM
Mar 2014

of both at zero cost.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
74. People are trying to make this a big deal
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:32 PM
Mar 2014

IF Russia invades Ukraine and ends resistance quickly, this will not be a big deal in a year. If Russia goes in and can't subdue the Ukrainians, it starts to become a big deal. We are not going to fight Russia over this. AT WORST we would arm Ukrainian insurgents and maybe support moderate economic sanctions, but Western Europe will not cut its throat over Ukraine.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
76. That's sort of been my thought
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:35 PM
Mar 2014

From a realistic perspective, based on actual history... it looks to me like Russia is gleefully jumping face-first into a bear trap. Ukraine is wobbling on the edge of a civil war, and frankly it seems to me that a Russian move into that mess is just going to blow up in Russia's face, even without "the west" (oh how I loathe that term... Men of Númenor! Show me your white hides!) getting involved.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
36. That's pretty naive view. KGB has nothing on CIA.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:53 PM
Mar 2014

CIA intelligence failures in lead up to 9/11 and Iraq War? Those weren't failures.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
62. What?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:16 PM
Mar 2014

Dude I have worked for a three letter agency, not CIA or NSA or FBI (should make it easy to figure out, but as an Army Intelligence Analyst I worked for one for a few years, I was a simple analyst, I have no great insight, I have no secret knowledge, but I have worked within the community. So with that being said, what are you trying to say?

I am on our side, but anyone who thinks we are going to serious bats for the Ukrainians is high.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
91. I want to say that I agree with both you and Nadin,
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:06 AM
Mar 2014

the key being that you are speaking rationally, and Nadin is saying that reason does not always serve in these situations, WWI being the classic example. In this case I think YOU are right about how it goes, but I share Nadin's concerns about delusional narcissists near the levers of power.

It is worth noting, in my view, that like Bush in the Georgia case, Obama went on vacation.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/07/obama-biden-stick-to-vacation-schedules-despite-ukraine-crisis/

William769

(59,147 posts)
8. A bully bullies. Not shocked at who supports this bully.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:37 PM
Mar 2014

The bully will keep bullying up until the people on the sidelines say enough is enough, then the bully will run with his tail tucked between his ass cheeks. We see it over & over.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
9. I think your bully analogy does not really work
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:38 PM
Mar 2014

lets just say...

But what works is that there were really no consequences with South Ossetia, thanks dubya...

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
11. There will be consequences for Crimea, let alone the rest of Ukraine.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 09:40 PM
Mar 2014

The Russian people will suffer if he annexes Crimea.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
20. How?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:20 PM
Mar 2014

Again this is not an attack, but let's wargame this out. What is the West's response when Putin annexes Crimea? HONESTLY, what is the response?

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
22. Asset freezes on Russia's plutocratic buddies for one.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:24 PM
Mar 2014

and their companies. They stash their billions in euros.

Withdrawal of European investment in Russia, etc.

Ruble will plummet.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
24. And what would Russia's response be?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:33 PM
Mar 2014

I want to hear your answer before mine. Russia has the US by the short curly hairs, which is why Putin feels emboldened.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
28. Two initial steps
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:44 PM
Mar 2014

1. Cut off Oil and Gas to Western Europe, most pipelines run through Ukraine and Belarus.....Russia has plenty of customers in China, India and SE Asia that would not mind increased oil supplies. Also this move would drive the price of Crude oil higher which benefits Russia.
2. Shut down the Central Asian Air Pipeline by denying U.S. forces access to their airspace. By doing that it nearly strands all U.S. forces in Afghanistan as nearly 100% of all supplies and personnel moves into and out of Afghanistan. Nearly all supplies are flown into Afghanistan through Russian airspace. Pakistan denies us the use of their airspace as does Iran. We could maybe force Pakistan to give us renewed air space rights, but there is no guarantee

Russia has about three move easy moves it could engage in. I want Putin's face smashed in, but he really has set the table to his advantage right now.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
42. Winter is over. Europe--unlike North America--
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:57 PM
Mar 2014

had a very mild winter, so its reserves are full. Europe lived without Russian oil before, it can do so again. The Saudis will cooperate.

The US has not been so thoughtless as to depend on Russia for its military campaigns.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
54. Yeah actually we have
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:08 PM
Mar 2014

I was in Afghanistan last year, our supply routes are out of Kyrgyzstan then through Russian airspace back to Europe. 70% of supplies move through Russian air space, the rest is ground transport through Pakistan (ground) and a small corridor through Turkmenistan. They can't cut us off completely, but they can hurt us.


Look at the map, how else do we fly into and out of Afghanistan?

Winter is over, and I agree point one is less potent, but most European nations do not have a large Strategic Reserve and the increased price of crude oil would be harsh on Europes economies which are already suffering.

My point is not to say Russia is great or we are completely screwed, but in the modern world we would suffer nearly as much as they would and over what? A country most people in this nation could care less about? I think PBO would not risk further economic turmoil over Ukraine.

Nadin said this resembled WW1 or WW2.....I think it resembles 1936-1938 when The Nazis knew how far they could push the West. They got greedy in 1939 and that led to war. We aren't at the 1939 point yet.

 

go west young man

(4,856 posts)
89. Good analysis. Spot on.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 02:18 AM
Mar 2014

Personally I think East Ukraine may annex itself. Maybe with Russia's help but most likely without it. Video's coming out of the region show major demonstrations with a strong desire to join with Russia.

Something else a lot of the "cold War" fans seem to miss is that Russia has been building up it's fleet of nuclear subs while we have been building a $30 billion dollar aircraft carrier. They have over 20 subs now with multiple long range warheads on board so the mutual destruction scenario would still be in play in any major war regardless of any EU missile sites.

Personally I don't think Russia is as interested in all the land grabbing that folks are projecting on them. This has thrown a wrench in Putins plans for recovering Russia's economy but if you think about where Russia was 2 decades ago this is just a small sidestep and nothing too major (especially as they have the oil leverage) ...if anything there is probably disappointment as Russians as a whole think the West is just using the whole scenario to kick them once again. They are used to it and their lack of trust of us...is hurting us more than I think we realize. So many opportunities have been lost it's sad.

Some posters here are also ragging on Russia's economy without a clue as to how well it has recovered since 2000. It is actually quite amazing to visit Russia and see how much it has changed each time I go over. Basic info in regards to this can be found quite easily. Misinformation seems to be a large part of the problem and I see that all the time at DU. A lot of nationalism and cheerleading, but not much information or first hand experience.

Anyway just wanted to commend you for your knowledge. I'm considered a Putinista so my accolades won't help your rep but that comes with the territory here. I'm actually a former Marine myself. 0341 1st battalion, 6th Marines, 2nd Mar Div 85-88 Semper Fi and Peace.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
41. The U.S. does not need Russia. It will drag Europe kicking and screaming
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:56 PM
Mar 2014

To Economically fuck Russia and Putin. And yes, I see a major Fracking boom taking place in Ukraine for better or for worse.

one_voice

(20,043 posts)
30. He's the worst kind of bully...
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:47 PM
Mar 2014

power and supporters. They think they're invincible. UNTIL, someone knocks them on their ass, they're not so tough then.

Separation

(1,975 posts)
17. "At this time, the United States, will no longer accept the Russian Ruble as currency."
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:06 PM
Mar 2014

The threat of even saying that would probably be almost as bad as letting a few ICBM's fly.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
43. The U.S. can bury Russia economically AND
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:58 PM
Mar 2014

They have way more assets which could be deployed in Russia and Ukraine to foment costly and demoralizing insurgencies.

 

pragmatic_dem

(410 posts)
66. Translates to: sacrifice more US middle class to do it, just like Iraq and Afghanistan...
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:20 PM
Mar 2014

The cold war came at a horrible cost to this country as well.



 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
70. No. Reagan cold war + Reagan tax cuts destroyed middle class.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:25 PM
Mar 2014

Agree or disagree with the cold war, the U.S. middle class was growing and prospering during much of it.

 

pragmatic_dem

(410 posts)
90. we have even more income disparity and our war on terror, war on drugs, war on immigration, ...
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:21 AM
Mar 2014

and any economic sanctions of a new old war with Russia strong enough to cause pain in Russia will cause pain in US and Europe considering the 10s of billions of trade each of these countries maintain with Russia.

This is not Iran or Iraq. In US and Europe resources/raw materials, oil, etc come from Russia, US and Europe sends heavy equipment, vehicles aircraft, etc to Russia.

If any sanction is going to be effective the pain will (as it always does) be felt almost exclusively by the middle class, either by declining shares on exchanges, job cuts as exports dry up, high prices for goods/serves but probably all of the above.

The middle class ALWAYS pays for war. The difference this time is middle class has continued to shrink dramatically since 1970s cold war which set the stage for the Reagan recession in the 1980s which I remember.

 

pragmatic_dem

(410 posts)
27. Apparently this development is a complete surprise to NSA and CIA who have just
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:40 PM
Mar 2014

noticed that Russia annexed Ukraine.

In it's defense, NSA has indicated that Russia isn't nearly as interesting as spying on the porn habits of internet users.






 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
45. Folks need to pick a spot. Last I heard, CIA started Ukraine
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:00 PM
Mar 2014

Protests and ultimately assisted in coup. Make up your goddamned minds.

 

pragmatic_dem

(410 posts)
52. I want to believe that even CIA isn't that fucking stupid. On other hand situation is totaly FUBAR
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:06 PM
Mar 2014

so maybe CIA did have something to do with it.

RKP5637

(67,112 posts)
33. ... seems Sunday will likely be a catalyst. My gut feeling is it's only the beginning, that this
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:51 PM
Mar 2014

is a test of will and resolve by Putin as he shapes his agenda.

RKP5637

(67,112 posts)
51. His style reminds me of the strong armed dictatorial leaders in my youth. He seems
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:06 PM
Mar 2014

to be quite hardened in what he wants. Incidents like this, of course, can trigger years of aggression ... passive or active. There's a feeling in the air I just don't like.

kwassa

(23,340 posts)
58. I think Putin will open Olive Garden restaurants in Crimea ...
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:13 PM
Mar 2014

serving only breast-feeding cornflake-coated pitbulls.

Well, maybe not.

U4ikLefty

(4,012 posts)
81. ..and they're all armed with e-cigs!!!
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:14 AM
Mar 2014

Those Russians are gonna blow heavy metal vapor and release the angry birds...damn that shirtless devil!

U4ikLefty

(4,012 posts)
85. Yes it was juvenile. I guess I should hang around adults more often, but
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:25 AM
Mar 2014

4th graders are such good e-cig customers...I'm making millions!!!

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
86. Even more juvenile
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:38 AM
Mar 2014

So you have an issue with research, and statements from public officials? Or is this just....

U4ikLefty

(4,012 posts)
87. My issues result from smoking too much e-crack in the car with my toddler.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:59 AM
Mar 2014

I've gotta get this deadly e-monkey off my back before the CDC, WHO and FDA come to get me!!!

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