Wed May 7, 2014, 09:39 AM

Laelth (32,014 posts)

Who will choose our 2016 nominee?

Last edited Wed May 7, 2014, 12:21 PM - Edit history (1)

This is not a poll. It's supposed to be educational, and it's a response to a naive but well-intentioned DU thread that appeared recently and sank like a stone. That thread questioned whether or not Elizabeth Warren's populism resonated sufficiently within the Democratic Party to allow Warren to win the nomination were she to seek it.

There are many of us who still believe (or cynically advance the proposition) that our nominees are selected based upon their stands on "issues" that affect the electorate. The idea is that Democrats will vote for the primary candidate that most closely reflects and advances his or her own political ideology, and that the person who is closest to "mainstream" thought within the Democratic Party should win. This notion is now absurd (and it may have always been absurd).

Most people who are paying attention realize that money drives politics in the United States, and this rule applies to the Democratic Party's nominating process as well. The best indicator of a candidate's chances to win a primary election is that candidate's ability to fundraise. Policy and ideology (while not entirely irrelevant) are but minor concerns in the grand scheme of our national politics. As such, when we consider who our likely nominees will be for the 2016 Presidential election, our first concern should be the fundraising capacity of the candidates in question.

Here's the list of the top three fundraisers in the Democratic Party, in order:

1) Barack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) Elizabeth Warren

Noam Scheiber, in a seminal essay, explains that there are two, separate, and competing money-generating machines working in the Democratic Party. One is controlled by President Barack Obama, and it is dominant. Obama inherited this machine from John Kerry who, by endorsing Obama and throwing his machine behind him, allowed Obama to secure the 2008 nomination. Obama, for his part, improved Kerry's machine and created the greatest and most powerful donation-generating mechanism in the history of American politics, but it remains true that the Clinton machine (inherited by Hillary from her husband) remains potent and can not be dismissed. Elizabeth Warren, for her part, is building her own, separate fundraising machine, and she has been remarkably successful in doing so, but her fundraising capacity lags behind that of our President and Hillary Clinton significantly.

Given this dynamic (considering the reality of fundraising capabilities in the Democratic Party today) it seems clear to me that Barack Obama will choose our next Presidential nominee. Someone will inherit his fundraising machine, and that person is likely to win the nomination. To whom he will give his machine is the only relevant question.

I hope, of course, that he decides to throw his weight behind Elizabeth Warren. Those who take Warren at her word that she's not running for President are rather naive, I suspect. At the very least, Warren is keeping her options open (as she should--being the savvy politician that she is), but the release of her latest book, A Fighting Chance, is the best indicator I have yet seen that she intends to pursue the nomination. A book like that (laying out a general political philosophy and advancing specific policy proposals to address the nation's ills) is a prerequisite for a Presidential run these days. As an aside, liberals who want to support Warren and who would like to see her run should buy the book. She needs the money, and she needs to be able to point to significant sales of the book in order to convince the "money people" who run the Democratic Party to back her.

That said, the main "money person" in the Democratic Party, at the moment, is President Barack Obama. His machine is our strongest, and the person to whom he gives this machine is likely to win the nomination. I hope he chooses wisely, but I don't believe for a second that our nominating process has anything to do with "issues" or "ideas." If only that were true. Instead, money runs the process. The best indicator of our likely nominee in 2016 is that candidate's ability to marshall and unite the big donors (with some help from millions of small donors) who drive American politics today. Ultimately, it's up to President Obama. Whomever Barack Obama chooses to inherit his colossal (and unprecedented) machine is likely to win.

-Laelth

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71 replies	Author	Time	Post
Who will choose our 2016 nominee? (Original post)	Laelth	May 2014	OP
We have this thing called "Primaries"	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#1
We know unconstitutionally required ID's will make the difference this november	randys1	May 2014	#2
Hmm ...	Laelth	May 2014	#3
99% don't get out and get OTHER people to vote WITH Them	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#4
Then get out in the real world and do something other than admonish those that WILL vote	Dragonfli	May 2014	#48
Are you accusing me....because I did door to door last election....so	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#49
You should be doing it now if GOTV were as important to you as you claim	Dragonfli	May 2014	#50
Already making plans to travel to another state to do exactly that....	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#51
Stop making "plans", get out the vote or STFU	Dragonfli	May 2014	#58
I don't JUST make plans.....I carry them out....	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#60
You are the one constantly yelling at DUers to get out and vote, not me	Dragonfli	May 2014	#61
I already told you....I do...	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#63
If they were more than posers looking for a pat on the back here	Dragonfli	May 2014	#47
LOL. Good post. Thanks. n/t	Laelth	May 2014	#52
May not need them if Joe Biden decides to run?	hughee99	May 2014	#32
VP gets poll position....	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#40
Is there any poll which lists Biden as the favorite in a Democratic primary?	hughee99	May 2014	#42
What do YOU think happens it Biden decides to run even with Hillary in?	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#43
If Biden gets in while Clinton is in, we're still going to need a primary.	hughee99	May 2014	#44
Not messy at all...unusually UNMESSY in fact.....UNLESS Joe Biden decides to run...	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#46
I occasionally see these posts that say 'we don't need a primary' when an incumbent is running	Bluenorthwest	May 2014	#38
and I didn't say we didn't need it....do you know the history of being Vice President	VanillaRhapsody	May 2014	#41
Obama had his own fundraising behemoth a year before Kerry's endorsement	frazzled	May 2014	#5
I suspect Kerry threw his weight behind Obama long before January 10, 2008.	Laelth	May 2014	#7
"Supposing" is mere conjecture	frazzled	May 2014	#14
I mentioned in the OP that Obama improved upon Kerry's machine.	Laelth	May 2014	#22
Very true	davidpdx	May 2014	#10
Great post, Laelth!	Octafish	May 2014	#6
Thanks for the response and for the kind words. n/t	Laelth	May 2014	#37
Your problem is that Obama's machine no longer exists. It was a one time thing, successful but...	CK_John	May 2014	#8
Interesting response. Thanks.	Laelth	May 2014	#15
Thanks for this thread	NV Whino	May 2014	#9
If Hillary wants to run (and Joe Biden does not), I agree.	Laelth	May 2014	#55
Excellent essay	Le Taz Hot	May 2014	#11
Obama will back either Clinton or Biden and that has nothing to do with "corporatism"	stevenleser	May 2014	#19
"a serious stab in the back" Oh well we're used to that.	L0oniX	May 2014	#25
Ultimately, I agree.	Laelth	May 2014	#26
I have to admit I'm interested in Warren	davidpdx	May 2014	#12
I linked to Amazon in the OP.	Laelth	May 2014	#28
For overseas	davidpdx	May 2014	#65
Very cool. Thanks. n/t	Laelth	May 2014	#66
The voters will choose. That's why there are primary elections.	MineralMan	May 2014	#13
Mineral Man, I have to admit ...	Laelth	May 2014	#16
Idealism only dies when people stop striving for the ideal.	MineralMan	May 2014	#17
My idealism died many years ago and has been replaced by reality and sarcasm	Exposethefrauds	May 2014	#24
If you are a compelling candidate, you can raise enough money to compete in the first 2-3 contests	stevenleser	May 2014	#18
Perhaps, but ...	Laelth	May 2014	#56
The 1% will give us our "choices"	LittleBlue	May 2014	#20
Message auto-removed	Name removed	May 2014	#21
Kick this sad, but true thread.	Scuba	May 2014	#23
Thanks, Scuba.	Laelth	May 2014	#70
Wall Street and the upper crust.	SamKnause	May 2014	#27
President Obama has NEVER chosen or appointed someone from the Progressive Wing of the Party...	bvar22	May 2014	#29
In all fairness ...	Laelth	May 2014	#30
...and there was Hilda Solis, appointed as Labor Srcretary in his frist administration,	bvar22	May 2014	#34
Cabinet appointments matter a great deal.	Laelth	May 2014	#54
The money already has. n/t	Orsino	May 2014	#31
i didn't think my vote mattered, anyway.	Sheri	May 2014	#33
I sincerely hope you're not talking about my poll	Fearless	May 2014	#35
No. I wasn't.	Laelth	May 2014	#53
Interesting post...but, I'd say it isn't Barack Obama who will decide...	KoKo	May 2014	#36
Excellent points, Laelth. My only addition to your post is to ask since we now KNOW that money	sabrina 1	May 2014	#39
Thanks for the kind words and for the response.	Laelth	May 2014	#69
Ahhh so refreshing to see someone who thinks we	Exposethefrauds	May 2014	#45
Recommend	KoKo	May 2014	#57
Thanks. n/t	Laelth	May 2014	#71
K & R !!!	WillyT	May 2014	#59
Bankers and Wall Street	alarimer	May 2014	#62
Did it ever occur to any of you Warren supporters that maybe Hillary is the one Democrat	Beacool	May 2014	#64
I don't think there'd be any difference between a President H. Clinton	ecstatic	May 2014	#67
I suspect their cabinets would be very different.	Laelth	May 2014	#68

Response to Laelth (Original post)

Wed May 7, 2014, 09:43 AM

VanillaRhapsody (21,115 posts)

1. We have this thing called "Primaries"

but we may not need them if Joe Biden decides to run....furthermore we have MIDTERMS in November to think about and it doesn't even matter which Democrat is elected in 2016 if we don't win big this November....as all that will happen is.....4 more years of obstruction.

You want to see Progressive change for the next 6+ years....GOTV this Summer!

Who will choose our 2016 nominee?

1. We have this thing called "Primaries"

2. We know unconstitutionally required ID's will make the difference this november

3. Hmm ...

4. 99% don't get out and get OTHER people to vote WITH Them

48. Then get out in the real world and do something other than admonish those that WILL vote

49. Are you accusing me....because I did door to door last election....so

50. You should be doing it now if GOTV were as important to you as you claim

51. Already making plans to travel to another state to do exactly that....

58. Stop making "plans", get out the vote or STFU

60. I don't JUST make plans.....I carry them out....

61. You are the one constantly yelling at DUers to get out and vote, not me

63. I already told you....I do...

47. If they were more than posers looking for a pat on the back here

52. LOL. Good post. Thanks. n/t

32. May not need them if Joe Biden decides to run?

40. VP gets poll position....

42. Is there any poll which lists Biden as the favorite in a Democratic primary?

43. What do YOU think happens it Biden decides to run even with Hillary in?

44. If Biden gets in while Clinton is in, we're still going to need a primary.

46. Not messy at all...unusually UNMESSY in fact.....UNLESS Joe Biden decides to run...

38. I occasionally see these posts that say 'we don't need a primary' when an incumbent is running

41. and I didn't say we didn't need it....do you know the history of being Vice President

5. Obama had his own fundraising behemoth a year before Kerry's endorsement

7. I suspect Kerry threw his weight behind Obama long before January 10, 2008.

14. "Supposing" is mere conjecture

22. I mentioned in the OP that Obama improved upon Kerry's machine.

10. Very true

6. Great post, Laelth!

37. Thanks for the response and for the kind words. n/t

8. Your problem is that Obama's machine no longer exists. It was a one time thing, successful but...

15. Interesting response. Thanks.

9. Thanks for this thread

55. If Hillary wants to run (and Joe Biden does not), I agree.

11. Excellent essay

19. Obama will back either Clinton or Biden and that has nothing to do with "corporatism"

25. "a serious stab in the back" Oh well we're used to that.

26. Ultimately, I agree.

12. I have to admit I'm interested in Warren

28. I linked to Amazon in the OP.

65. For overseas

66. Very cool. Thanks. n/t

13. The voters will choose. That's why there are primary elections.

16. Mineral Man, I have to admit ...

17. Idealism only dies when people stop striving for the ideal.

24. My idealism died many years ago and has been replaced by reality and sarcasm

18. If you are a compelling candidate, you can raise enough money to compete in the first 2-3 contests

56. Perhaps, but ...

20. The 1% will give us our "choices"

23. Kick this sad, but true thread.

70. Thanks, Scuba.

27. Wall Street and the upper crust.

29. President Obama has NEVER chosen or appointed someone from the Progressive Wing of the Party...

30. In all fairness ...

34. ...and there was Hilda Solis, appointed as Labor Srcretary in his frist administration,

54. Cabinet appointments matter a great deal.

31. The money already has. n/t

33. i didn't think my vote mattered, anyway.

35. I sincerely hope you're not talking about my poll

53. No. I wasn't.

36. Interesting post...but, I'd say it isn't Barack Obama who will decide...

39. Excellent points, Laelth. My only addition to your post is to ask since we now KNOW that money

69. Thanks for the kind words and for the response.

45. Ahhh so refreshing to see someone who thinks we

57. Recommend

71. Thanks. n/t

59. K & R !!!

62. Bankers and Wall Street

64. Did it ever occur to any of you Warren supporters that maybe Hillary is the one Democrat

67. I don't think there'd be any difference between a President H. Clinton

68. I suspect their cabinets would be very different.