A question on climate change

[nadinbrzezinski]

The San Diego fires in May...are one of the predicted event by climate change science. Not the fires specifically, but the more severe, more frequent, wild fires. Will this be the year Americans finally get it? Climatic change is happening!!! We are now seeing the effects in your back yard. Or are we going to continue to pretend none of this is happening? FYI, your neighbors to the south are actually leading with this, but they have been feeling the effects before we named it.

I should add, fires like these are a September/ October event. But as Cal Fire chief officers keep reminding us, California is now in a year round fire season.

[AverageJoe90]

1. It's indeed possible that climate change may have had an (indirect) effect on the wildfires.........

Though unfortunately, we'll have to wait for the long term trends to get any real confirmation on that.

In any case, it does seem that many are still waking up, even if not as quickly as we'd like. Let's hope that continues......



(P.S. Also, is Northern Mexico dealing with lots of wildfires as well? )

[Benton D Struckcheon]

2. Saw yesterday that Rubio's taking flak for his climate change denial,

so maybe this year even the Republicans will come around? Stranger things have happened...

[immoderate]

3. The more fires you show deniers, the more they double down on their obstinacy.

Sorry, they don't get smarter.

--imm

[Swede Atlanta]

4. Plus anything that hurts Californians is seen as good for them....

they all think California should just fall off into the ocean because it is and has historically been fairly liberal.

[rufus dog]

22. Winner winner chicken dinner

People need to understand the enemy, and they are the enemy.

They take joy with CA being on fire. The problem on our side is we keep underestimating their hate.

[jwirr]

5. Nadin, I think that people by and large are still looking at these events from the in my back yard

picture and making it something that is only in my back yard. Many have failed to connect the dots. I don't know what it will take to get people to realize that this is going on all over the world and it is not normal. I guess a severe shortage of water and food might do it. If California cannot produce the food the country needs and prices go shy high maybe the rest of us will begin to see the connection.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

6. That'll start happening very soon.

Should be fun to see what they say when lettuce and grapes and walnuts and pecans all go way up in price.

[jwirr]

7. Yes, and I think it is already showing up in some foods. We are still getting most of the foods but

they are very expensive.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Oh fully agree

This is what I ran on my blog and will not pretend to try to recreate the dam thing, so heavily sourced.

But this is the relevant paragraph on this

Partly I have a global view because of my experience in emergency services in another country, as well as seeing the leading edge of Climate Change affect my home country of Mexico. This week Mexico expects to get substantial rains on her South West Coast. This is way early for this. Just as our fire season never quite stopped, the floods will be bad if this is just the beginning. Floods in Mexico have been of historic levels for the last ten years. And the climate in Mexico City has changed radically to the point it is nothing like what anybody remembers. (For the record, the report states that past climate is not a good predictor of future actions because of the changes in it.)

http://nadinabbottblog.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/climate-change-impacts-on-the-united-states/

[malaise]

59. Well said

Just think weather in Australia versus the USA last December/January and recall the discussions. The morons said lots of snow means no climate change while Australia was experiencing a massive drought and burning.
California has been facing massive drought as well.

[jwirr]

60. Many in this country did not even know about the droughts in Australia because our MSM does not

cover much other than war regarding other countries. And that is not new. When I was in college one of my Nigerian friends made that statement and said the only thing that we knew about overseas was that the Vietnam War was in Vietnam. I started listening to the BBC and it was surprising how many important events we miss in the rest of the world. We are truly uneducated.

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. Trust me, I know

And that provincialism is going to kill us... By the way what is this Australia you speak off? (I kid, I kid)

[pscot]

8. There may be a new El Niņo

building. It's been years since we've had one. If it occurs I think we'll see the mask come off. How many Californians still believe that global warming may be benign? We are in deep trouble.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. The advanced patterns... gave me flashbacks

not seen since 1997. I remember that year fondly... the floods were something to behold.

[Dreamer Tatum]

10. Nine fires in one day in a definite pattern, and you call it global warming.

If this was global warming, so was 9/11.

[Niceguy1]

42. need a long term

View....and rule out the currently suspected human involvement. Plus a long look back at California history that jas had 30 year droughts long before climate change came along.

[villager]

52. Um, the fires happened because there were fire *conditions*

Prolonged drought, accompanied by winds.

So the observation of California being in a year-round fire cycle are correct.

California has always had its share of deliberately-set, or human-caused fire -- they're not all lightening strikes -- but they happen in fire season.

And fire season is what has been extended by climate change, your usual empty snark notwithstanding.

[Dreamer Tatum]

57. Yes, I see it now. Scientists DID predict

that fires due to global warming would start all on the same day in one city, and that city is San Diego.

Give me a fucking break.

Oh, wait, I think I get it: fires are ALWAYS deliberately set, except NOW, with global warming, they stay lit and spread.

Whereas all of those millions of deliberately-set fires in the past, BEFORE global warming, would have been magically extinguished by
"Mother Nature," with the logic that it isn't fire season.



"Say, Dave, be careful with that cigarette! You might start a fire!"

"Start a fire? What? It isn't even fire season!

My god, what some people contort themselves to believe.

Nine separate fires in one day, in a pattern, in ONE city.

Please.

[villager]

61. In your world of bitter snark, perhaps the arsonists work on rainy days

Certainly, weather never impedes you in your quest to vomit out as many nasty comments into the world as you're capable of.

Still, back in the reality-based world the rest of us live in, an increase in fire-prone conditions tends to lead to... an increase in fires.

[Dreamer Tatum]

66. Belief without critical examination is better known as religion.

Enjoy yours.

[villager]

67. And you have absolute faith in your wrong-headedness and mean-spiritedness

n/t

[Dreamer Tatum]

68. One city, one day, nine wildfires.

I have absolute faith that this is arson, and that's all I have absolute faith in.

[villager]

69. Absolutely made possible by the spreading of dry, droughty, fire-prone conditions

That's the whole point.

[Dreamer Tatum]

71. No question that it was and is very very very very dry.

But if you don't set something dry on fire, it tends not to burn.

[villager]

72. Of course. No one's saying the pattern doesn't indicate arson. But we've always had arson

...as an unfortunate component of "fire season" here in California, along with all the other man-made causes.

The point is that global warming / drought /climate change will create far more of those "opportunities."

Alas.

[Johonny]

11. As long as money controls legislation we won't do very much as a nation on this issue

I think it is encouraging that this round of reports on the information we know about climate is getting more and more press and people are talking about it more on social media. But within capital hill you're not seeing much action. Remember in 2000 Bush pledged to regulate carbon dioxide emissions as central component of his energy policy. He did nothing. Republicans will adopt this language again and then do nothing in power. Their voters simply do not hold them accountable for doing nothing. They ran on jobs, jobs, jobs and did nothing for years now. If the entire Republican voting block in the house is swept out of office in anger for their inaction the past 3.5 years then I believe this country will act on the biggest threat to the country in the modern world. When they aren't, then I think you can be certain the worst of climate predictions are likely to become reality.

This isn't bad... bad is what the climate will be like in 50-200 years.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Partially right

we have some other issues here at play. And one of them is... climate change is happening, but I do not want any effect on my personal life, and damn it will do all to prevent that change. And this is to the point of lawsuits.

I will leave it at that. People who will be directly affected (industrial back country green energy development) have to change their approach to how to mitigate the effects, or have utilities pay good quid for their lands. They are coming, they have really bad effects on local residents, how do we mitigate it? The fight right now is to keep them out. That ain't gonna happen.

And I will add, that goes for urban residents too, we all need to change how we do a lot of stuff, and start pressuring for public transportation

[rudolph the red]

13. How does this point to climate change?

I'm curious...The fires seem to have been deliberately set.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. You might want to read this

http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/climate-change

This

http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/climate-action-plan

This

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/05/140516-san-diego-fires-climate-change-california/

and this

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fires-fuel-climate-change/

Just for starters. That was one of the most worthy question I have read in a long time. But I fear I cannot say anything that might make sense to you.

Of course a study on fire behavior, relationship with humidity levels, winds and temps perhaps is also in order. And how those are a changing pattern from a September-October pattern to a year round pattern. I suggest you go ask Chair Dianne Jacob what she meant with those comments in repeated pressers.

Very few fire fighters deny it anymore, but they deal with it every day.

[rudolph the red]

15. Ridiculous

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Translation, I got nothing and I am standing with THIS GUY

?1389725625

[rudolph the red]

19. You are making shit up and blaming it on everyone else

There is no logic in your post. Please show me how the 2014 San Diego fires relat to global warming/change.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. If you have no idea how Sept-Oct weather patterns in May

and more violent fire storms are related to Climate Change, I suggest you read at least a few of the sources provided.

[laundry_queen]

21. Does biggest drought in recorded history for California ring a bell? nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Let's be fair, last 500 years

and a May like this, since 1889. And 2013 was the hottest year on record.

I gave him actual science, and actual links. And he wants to debate science. It is kind of cute.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. So let me get straight...

you are joining Rush Limbaugh, and Speaker Boehner, and Congressman Eric Cantor in calling the National Climate Assessment ALARMIST? Again, I recommend that instead of arguing with me, you sit down and read what you were given. Becuase you know what? That is exactly the company you are with right now. I forgot Marco Rubio is also in that company and Mrs's. David and Charles Koch

[Dreamer Tatum]

58. Then why isn't LA on fire? Fresno? Palm Springs?

I wish you'd get a grip. As soon as they catch the assholes that did this, you'll be the FIRST to crow about it.

[kristopher]

17. Let's exaggerate the consequences of wind energy and try to turn public opinion against it!

Perhaps that will help.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4965020
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4965132
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4965136

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Let's pick and choose science, as we see fit

like the climate denial folks do.

Please proceed sir.

By the way. those projects, whether you like it or not, for the San Diego Region, include the Sierra Juarez Project, did you know Sempra Energy has a few of it's execs facing money laundering and tax evasion charges in Mexico? But that be a discussion on corporate ethics which your type refuses to engage in.

I guess the Koch brothers also control the EEEEVVVIIIIILLLL Mexican AG office who charged them.

Oh and forgot, you want a true climate denial person, look at the post above you. That be 12

[rudolph the red]

23. are you just a fanatic?

There's no discussion with you.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. I suggest you educate yourself

with the sources I gave you. It is not my job to educate you. If you are really curious, go check those.

Science is not a pick and chose buffet.

[rudolph the red]

25. Did climate change cause the arsonist?

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Again, winds, humidity, and rapid rate of spread

with extremely high temps... in MAY is what is related to this pattern changing. The overall major incidents CAL FIRE has been responding to. The UP-STAFFING two months in advance. The fire hardening in the back country for Electrical infrastructe, all of that is related to it. Read the DAMN MATERIAL and stop arguing. EDUCATE yourself.

95% of all wild fires are caused by humans. The intensity is caused by climate change.

Go read those sources. Go argue with the WH Climate Commission that produced the report. A report that is a one stop shopping for the science.

Oh and if you mean fanatic = educated, I guess I am.

[rudolph the red]

29. California has never had a drought before

I get it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Well, they are *more freqeunt and severe* as well

and the El Nino Pattern will have you guys screaming see NOT REAL...

[rudolph the red]

33. Read (and understand a book) a freaking book

Climate always changes. You are an alarmist

[haele]

73. Sigh. No, climate change produced the environment for large brush fires by possible arsonists.

Being in San Diego and being passing familiar with the history, ecology, and geology of the area, I can appreciate how unusual this weather pattern is. There's two things going on that are affecting the "base" of the standard fire triangle (fuel) that makes the past week of fires here so unusual.

1. The Santana (or Santa Ana) wind phenomena. For people who are not familiar with the phenomena, this occurs usually twice a year when the North American jet stream pushes a high pressure that sits and stalls over the Mojave Desert, causing somewhat cyclonic high winds at fairly low altitudes. Santanas blow hot, dry 45 - 80mph winds from the desert to the coast, disbursing the normal onshore flow off the cold Pacific ocean and driving them north, over central California.
The largest, longest lasting, and most dangerous ones that cause wild fires into the >1K Acre level usually happen during September/October in a normal year, August/Sept and then early November on off years where there is either a strong El Nino or La Nina which have affected change in temperature of the Pacific Ocean during July/August when it typically warms up along the West Coast.

Slight Santana conditions for a day or two can occur during the winter and early spring when the jet stream dips, usually after a heavy pacific storm from Alaska pushes through, and in those situations, the four major counties affected by Santanas in Southwest CA might get localized slow burn brush fires (at most a couple hundred acres) that are fairly easily controlled - even in year 5 of a drought.

2. The topography of coastal/inland valley San Diego County (where we have had these fires) and Southern Orange County - both are somewhat climate protected coastal environments; where the coastline of California has the greatest amount of inland curving that catches the natural moisture that is always coming up from the equator and creating more of a Mediterranean climate - more stable humidity - in pockets within the inland valley than can be found even in Norther OC and LA counties; our onshore flow creates "May Grey" and "June Gloom" overcast even in the hottest years.

The temperature of the Pacific Ocean has been within normal range for April and May. This year, we should have had enough humidity in the air that even with this unseasonable Santana, we wouldn't be hearing about backhoes, cigarette butts and catalytic converters or even thrill-seeking arsonists sparking out of control brush fires verging on wildfires for four straight days in San Diego County. We shouldn't be seeing temperatures in the upper 90's/100's this time of year.

Maybe in LA County, or Riverside, as they are more coastal or high desert and there is not as much onshore flow that gets trapped into micro-climates to create a marine cloud layer that, true, does little more than pump up humidity in the air, but not in inland San Diego county. Not in May.

That is what is freaking so many of us down here, and what is worrying us about the rest of the year and future years. It's not normal cycle - and we've had over 250 years of written records plus a major climate science institute that has been studying the local environment to prove it. The shift has been way too sudden.
True, it might be a one time weather anomaly, but it sure feels as if the climate wobble that has been studied over the past couple decades has finally tilted.

Haele

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. By the way, I am not exagerating by citing actual documentation

but you or your pals had to alert. I find the hide hilarious and I wear as a badge of honor. Now, with no further adieu. PLONK

[Bigmack]

28. Got a few.. well, more than a few minutes to spare?

Check out this local newspaper comments section.... 290 comments. The local paper supports the view that change/warming is here, and is man-caused.

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2014/may/10/our-view-costs-of-climate-change/#axzz31pWjfraD

The deniers are there in force... and they lie and make shit up and put their fingers in their ears and go "nananananana I can't hear you."

If you want a primer on what they think(?)... and rational responses to them... check it out.

Have drugs handy. You'll need it.

Yes, I am the Bigmack on those pages.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. The Climate National Assestment was a depressive read

but one I am glad I did

[rudolph the red]

35. You may have read it, but you didn't comprehend anything.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Says the one who keeps personally attacking me

and has not read it.

SNICKER

[rudolph the red]

38. show me the personal attack

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. There are plenty sir

but you are entertaining. Go argue with these quotes

The amount of future climate change will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.

U.S. average temperature has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since record keeping began in 1895; most of this increase has occurred since about 1970. The most recent decade was the nation’s warmest on record. Because human-induced warming is super- imposed on a naturally varying climate, the temperature rise has not been, and will not be, uniform or smooth across the country or over time.

Evidence of climate change is also visible in the observed and measured changes in location and behavior of species and functioning of ecosystems. Taken together, this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming, and over the last half century, this warming has been driven primarily by human activity. Data show that natural factors like the sun and volcanoes cannot have caused the warming observed over the past 50 years. Sensors on satellites have measured the sun’s output with great accuracy and found no overall increase during the past half century. Large volcanic eruptions during this period, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, have exerted a short- term cooling influence.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads

Now, go read the whole thing, and learn something. I am as serious as a heart attack.

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. For quoting science?

Ok, I am a nut. You are in good company. And I do not mean that in a good way. Back to ignore with you. I hoped you could be educated somehow, but I see you can't. so why try to educate you when 10K + acres have burned.

Good bye. Permanently now. When you continue to personally attack me... ce la vie. I do not alert, I do not play juries, good bye, and enjoy the company you keep.

[edgineered]

39. Thank to some -

for keeping me laughing tonight!

This is one amusing thread!

edit - spellcheck

[Brother Buzz]

45. I can't address San Diego, but my rural Northern California area totally gets it

Three of the four candidates running for the open seat in my state assembly district are solidly committed to mitigating climate change. The fourth candidate, the lone wackadoodle republican/libertarian, is wooing the 'Agenda 21' nut cases and is going nowhere.

My US congressman and state senator are totally on board, too.

There is a common theme among all these people: They do not run around like their hair is on fire screaming, "Climate change, climate change", but are choosing to get to work resolving complicated problems.

It's real, and it's here NOW, so stop listening to the claptrap the right wing echo chamber is pitching and get to work finding solutions.

[SheilaT]

47. Well, climate change is real

and is probably a factor in these fires. As is the drought. However, the current drought is nothing compared to what has happened in the past. I recently read A Great Aridness by William deBuys which points out that there have been droughts that lasted decades and longer in the southwest.

The huge number of people who live in Southern California are also a factor in that with so many people there are lots of homes and buildings of all sorts that can burn. Unfortunately. I know, we all have to live somewhere, and almost everywhere is subject to some sort of nasty natural phenomena: earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, flooding. None of it is pretty.

It also seems as if at least some of these recent fires were deliberately set. It's scary enough that there is a fire season there, but to have fires set by people is beyond despicable.

[nadinbrzezinski]

50. The issue is not with deliberately set

95% of fires are human caused, per CAL FIRE, last awareness week data.

The problem is how fast they spread because of Sept-Oct weather patterns in May. And I do hope those two kids face the extent of the law, and that the rest are caught.

We have been having a lot of fires in San Diego in the recent past. Was going through the paper's list just for the last three months, and it matches CAL FIRE's experience. It is absolutely nuts.

Things that start a fire, apart of the deliberately set. Any spark will do when it is this hot, a catalytic converter falling apart, a few of the local recent fires were that. Some idiot playing with shot guns... we have had a few of those. I could go on

[laundry_queen]

48. Many Americans will never get it.

Because you cannot point to any one event as proof. So there will be some that will deny it is happening even if there is an EF5 tornado in North Dakota in January. Because climate change requires nuanced thinking, people who view the world in black and white will never get it. Ever.
BTW, it's not just Americans...plenty of people around the world will never get it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. Yeah, but your neighbors to the south

have actually gotten it much easier. Part of it is that there is no denial of it at the highest levels of government.

The Partido Verde Ecologista (green party) will argue with the PAN on what to do about it, not whether it is happening. And that makes a world of difference.

[spanone]

49. as long as supposedly intelligent u.s. senators call it the greatest hoax....

there will be plenty of deniers

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. Yup, because they have politiced science

and as long as some of us get attacked by those who are fanatical (on both sides) because we look at the whole science...

[daleanime]

53. kick, kick, kick.....

[Louisiana1976]

55. Excellent thread. K&R

[Jamastiene]

62. I don't think Californians are the ones doing most of the denying.

What is worse is that down here in the south, "tornado season" is no longer a "season" but something I have come to expect any month of the year, including one recent Christmas Day, when we were under a tornado watch. I believe in global warming, but a lot of people around me still do not. I'm not sure if anything will change their minds. They refuse to believe it no matter what hideous weather strikes us harder and more often than it used to.

[nadinbrzezinski]

63. The denial is all over.

It is not just the south. Even on this thread you can see one of my neighbors doing the usual. And pols are not leading

[joshcryer]

65. American's won't get it until the arctic sea ice is gone for a few years.

Then there will be massive methane clatharate releases.

So basically, it'll be too late to stop it.

We can only mitigate it with geoengineering.

[randome]

70. Space mirrors would buy us some time. Refreeze the Arctic.

Then we can work on the other factors.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[joshcryer]

74. Nah, nothing that high tech.

It's simply a matter of changing the albedo, just spray some shit into the atmosphere:

This has been the plan for nearly a decade.