Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working

[Are_grits_groceries]

Let me be the first to admit it: President Obama's strategy for handling Russia and its incursions into Ukraine had seemed to me, as it did to many others, pretty unlikely to succeed.

Obama dismissed Russia as a "regional power" acting "out of weakness," but it was the US that looked weak: it could only cobble together some targeted sanctions that, while tough, appeared to do nothing to stop Russia's meddling in eastern Ukraine. He needed Europe's support for broader economic sanctions that would actually hurt the Russian economy and he didn't get it. Obama implicitly abandoned Crimea, giving no sign that he thought that, weeks after Russia invaded and annexed the territory, it might ever be returned to Ukraine. The official US position has been to threaten broader sanctions that seem unlikely to get the European support necessary to make them hurt, while arguing that Russia's actions will be so self-defeating that the problem would just sort itself out.

THE SYSTEM WORKED: PUTIN IS BACKING DOWN ALL ON HIS OWN

It sounded silly, a shrug of a policy. And maybe it even was. But it also turns out to be working surprisingly well. Russian President Vladimir Putin has over-reached in Ukraine, creating problems for himself so bad that they may force him down as or more effectively than plausible American actions alone might have (although they helped). Putin is hanging himself by his own rope.

This has been so effective, and has apparently taken Putin by such surprise, that after weeks of looking like he could roll into eastern Ukraine unchallenged, he's backing down all on his own. Official Russian rhetoric, after weeks of not-so-subtle threats of invading eastern Ukraine, is backing down. Putin suddenly looks like he will support Ukraine's upcoming presidential election, rather than oppose it, although it will likely install a pro-European president. European and American negotiators say the tone in meetings has eased from slinging accusations to working toward a peaceful resolution.

Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out.
<snip>
Much more:
http://www.vox.com/2014/5/16/5717674/obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working

I said use economic sanctions from the beginning.
As the article states, Russia is no longer able to isolate itself from the global economy. Earlier in their history they had much less interconnection with it.

In addition, the richest man in the Ukraine has entered the fray. He sent his workers from one of his industrial businesses to patrol an area of unrest. They calmed it down pretty quickly.

[Ilsa]

1. Our president is a patient man.

He sees the big picture, unlike some politicians who would rather go blow stuff up and send more money to the industrial war complex.

[GeorgeGist]

2. Oligarchs are winning?

Quelle surprise.

[JEFF9K]

3. GIVE-EM-ENOUGH-ROPE-AND-THEY'LL-HANG-THEMSELVES ...

... may be an under-used strategy. In any case, Republican strategies NEVER work, except when it comes to winning elections.

[groundloop]

4. I pity the poor poor neo-cons, they don't get their war with Russia

[KG]

5. please. russia was never going to invade ukraine. he saw the ass-kicking the russian army took

in chechnya against determined resistance and understands its limitations.

he got crimea, which he considered russia, w/o firing a shot.

he left the separatists, a drunken rabble, hanging.

and last time i looked putin still runs things in russia.

[Demeter]

9. Correct--DU is now a fact-free and history-free zone, for the most part

It's tiring and ultimately pointless to try to bring the DU awareness level up to something approaching the basic knowledge one should have learned in history and economics classes.....

Of course, after Reagan, there were no such things....only indoctrination classes.

Facts are stubborn things. Reagan called them "stupid things". The rest is "history."

[brush]

16. Please expand your comments on DU's awareness level. nt

[ensemble]

15. JMO

Putin would like to keep NATO out of Ukraine completely, and by annexing the eastern 1/3 or so, Russia would probably see NATO in the western 2/3 eventually. Now its a political game to gain the most influence in the rest of Ukraine. If things get too messy Russia may have to intervene militarily, but I think they would prefer not to. Agree that Russia was never going to give up the naval base in Crimea.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Ruble collapsed

and what became Russia had to be bailed out by the IMF and others. The only reason why they were able to recover was because the price of oil skyrocketed. And even though the massive infusion of oil from new sources should have dropped the prices, greed and speculation have maintained those prices. But that is a fragile situation. And at this point, the Ruble has plummeted again as folks flee that currency given the current geo-political situation, just like in the mid-late '90s.

[drm604]

7. But in the end, Russia still controls Crimea.

I've been wondering if that was the sole goal all along.

I suspect that this was Putin's plan:
[o]

Take Crimea then, when the rest of the world starts complaining, stir up unrest elsewhere in the Ukraine raising fears of a repeat of Crimea.

Back down under international pressure and leave the rest of the Ukraine.

World leaders can tell their constituents "we succeeded". The rest of the world breathes a sigh of relief.

Meanwhile, Russia gets to keep Crimea.

It's diabolically clever.

[awoke_in_2003]

20. And there was little we could do about it. nt

[drm604]

21. You'll get no argument from me.

I have no idea what we could have done short of force, which would be insane.

[awoke_in_2003]

22. Indeed. nt

[spanone]

8. mccain & graham would have dead bodies on the battlefield by now

[DeSwiss]

10. So everything's all settled?!?!

- Great. Thanks Obama.


“I believe in intuitions and inspirations…I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am.” ~Albert Einstein

[bemildred]

11. It's amazing how often doing nothing is the best possible option.

And how much we fear being accused of it ("doing nothing&quot .

[jwirr]

12. He handles many issues like this. He is great a rope a dope.

[flamingdem]

14. So true

He also works the weak spots in this case the Russian economy.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

13. Two specifics to support the OP

1. 220 billion in capital flight from Russia according to the ECB, which complained that the amount was so large it was actually causing the euro to go higher in value than they wanted: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10817511/ECB-capital-flight-from-Russia-has-hit-220bn.html

2 - Russian companies finding that getting loans from the West got a lot harder: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/991d1386-db85-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl

Note that this is in addition to whatever pain the official sanctions caused. The thing with money is this: if you put your money into something, the first thing you want to know is, can I get it out when I want it? That is the reason the FDIC worked to stop bank runs in the Depression, while the Fed failed miserably. It's what's behind Keynesian economics, and why it works.
And it's why sanctions like these work: once the idea you may not be able to get the money you put in back when you want it becomes more than just a distant risk, you are far more hesitant about putting your money into someplace or keeping it there.

[stevenleser]

18. I agree but I also potentially agree with some saying Putin got exactly what he wanted.

We also have some difficult choices depending on what Putin does now. For instance:

If he pulls his troops back from the border with Eastern Ukraine and the border of rest of Ukraine proper, makes it clear he is no longer supporting the rebels in Eastern Ukraine, and in all other ways seems to be behaving, what then? That is perhaps the most perplexing circumstance.

Do we then cancel the sanctions? Then he really gets away with grabbing Crimea. But will European countries support additional sanctions at that point? I think support for sanctions would collapse. Europe really didnt want to have to do anything to begin with.

Fortunately, for as clever as Putin seems to be about some things, he doesn't seem to understand the effect of doing what I just outlined would have on those arrayed against him. At least he doesnt seem to yet.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

19. The fact he has kept his forces arrayed along the border ...

... seems to indicate a desire to want to go further. The problem he has now is reasonably complex:

1 - Crimea depends for water and electricity on the mainland. There is of course also no way now to get from Crimea to Russia over land except by going through Ukraine.
2 - Multiple people have noted that Russia's arms currently depend on spare parts supplied from eastern Ukraine. Without grabbing it, he's going to have problems with those supplies until Russian industry can replace/supersede those parts.
3 - Odessa was used as the shipment point for arms exports, including, importantly, to Syria. So it's going to be a bit of an inconvenience to set up a different route. Obviously not impossible, but another problem to be worked around.

All of these point to a larger plan to take eastern Ukraine and possibly the entire Black Sea coast and leave Ukraine landlocked. It appears that may have been his initial plan. Whether or not that is true, it's better to proceed on that assumption than not, especially given all the above. That argues for sanctions remaining in place until the elections are done and his forces actually do withdraw from the border.

[Cha]

24. THanks for your insight, Benton.

[Igel]

17. Convenient straw man.

What was Putin's goal in the Donbas? Until you know that, you don't know if there was a workable plan, if the plan is trashed, or if the plan's going along reasonably well.

First, separate out Crimea from the Donbas. It's hard, I know, but they're different sorts of things and always have been. The only commonality is that they were part of Ukraine, had been part of the Russian empire, and have both a reasonably sized ethnic Russian population and a large Russian speaking population. (Keeping in mind that Putin blurs the two, but that's like saying all ethnic Latinos that speak English are "white". Mix culture and ethnic background and you get gibberish if the correlation doesn't hold.)

Old state of affairs in Donbas: Strong central government in Kiev, heavy reliance on Russia for economics but fairly poor. Kievan government was all for strong central government as was the Donbas.

Intermediate state of affairs, c. 4/1/14: Central government in Kiev weakened by dissent and revolt in the East, with a fair number of Russian citizens working here and there in key spots even if the rebels are from all over Ukraine (which, as far as the rebels are concerned and for this purpose only, includes the Crimea). A fair amount of chaos in the East as the central government still runs things. Central government wants to keep strong central government; Donbas suddenly wants federalization (dead set against it when one of theirs ran things; it's immoral and makes you fat, when their lessers run things ... with no awareness of hypocrisy or irony).

New state of affairs. Kiev government now talking federalization, in which something like the EU would require ratification by what amounts to a confederacy of Russian regions with the rest of Ukraine. They'd be "autonomous" republics, with the threat of secession always present, and with a veto over what anybody else wants.

Lots of people treat their Potemkin election as valid. They have a new constitution--approved by a couple hundred people, a referendum to join Russia isn't needed because the new constitution says that they can always appeal to join Russia. And that's valid because they did it "for the people". A Russian is in charge of the army; a Russian is the first minister. One minister is still on Kiev's payroll as she declares that they're independent.

Meanwhile, in Russia a seige mentality has taken hold. Their sensitivities and feelings are wounded. They're wronged. And rather than back down, they'll hunker down behind their symbol. Aggrieved senses of justice--they should be powerful and on top, and again their lessers are working against them. You can't blame one of your own unless he's ridiculous--El'tsyn comes to mind for that.

Only fools for whom money is the only thing that matters, the prime value in their value system, disregard honor and national or personal pride, fail to take into account perceived histories, overlook religious sensibilities. They're distinct things. It's also easy to overlook the way that personal and national pride can be conflated.

[LittleBlue]

23. Yeah, it's working so well that Putin has Crimea

and everyone has seemingly forgot. What happened to the big sanctions from Europe/US that were supposed to cripple Russia?

Any more Obama chess strategy and Putin should have the entire country within 5 years.