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[lostincalifornia]

This message was self-deleted by its author (lostincalifornia) on Sat Aug 2, 2014, 11:42 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[onehandle]

1. That almost never works. nt

[LiberalFighter]

29. I would generally agree.

If it is unorganized it usually won't work.

But if there is an organized campaign even if it is a stealth campaign it can work. I wasn't aware of any campaign in the Lugar Murdock election in 2012. But it appears that there was as many that usually voted in the Democratic primary in the past voted in the 2012 Republican.

[VanillaRhapsody]

2. I firmly believe it IS what happened....

when you look at all the evidence before you....its the only thing that makes sense.

[2pooped2pop]

7. just read yesterday that there was such a campaign

and Cooter from the old Dukes of Hazard was suppose to be behind it.

[FSogol]

10. His campaign consisted of writing one article to Huffpost. Hardly a campaign

and had little effect. Cantor has done nothing in Congress. His constituents noticed. Cantor barely ran a campaign. Brat had boots on the ground.

[yeoman6987]

28. Canter was at a fundraiser in Washington DC yesterday during the voting

that tells you all you need to know about Canter......He was so out of touch with his constituents that he was begging to lose. He lost by the Republicans not to say a few Dems played the Rush Limbaugh game.....but I doubt many.

[2pooped2pop]

40. lol, o i c

I can't believe that made any news. (the Cooter thing, I mean)

[FSogol]

43. I guess the message is: Cantor lost and its the Democrats' fault.

As for me: :cheers:

[2pooped2pop]

44. as long as Cantor lost......

well then, it's all good.

[kelliekat44]

34. I believe that some of that happened and is what is responsible for the huge margin of the win. But

I still think Canto would have lost anyway. There was some bigoted talk behind the scenes in that area. My cousin's girl friend is from that district...blood red in many areas.

[Kaleva]

3. Cantor's internal poll numbers showed he had a comfortable lead

I don't think that polling accounted for possible crossover voting.

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. Nope...Karl Rove's software never take into consideration return ratfucking!

[2pooped2pop]

41. lol

[hlthe2b]

16. Apparently turn out was horrendously low... sounds like polls didn't take in to account....

who would actually turn out, in addition to any Democratic cross over.

[leftynyc]

18. Not so

Turnout was UP as compared to the 2012 primary. I don't know if the Dems had anything to do with it but turnout was not the culprit.

[hlthe2b]

23. Interesting as I have read at least three articles citing low turn out... I'll have to go find links

Here: (maybe not ultimately accurate, but boy have all the "pundits" concluded it to be the case)

Despite the political ramifications of his loss, the election had a low turnout of approximately 12 percent in Commonwealth's left-leaning 7th District. According to Virginia's "sore loser" law, Cantor cannot run as a third-party candidate in the 7th District election, but can be a written in candidate.

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Va-Voters-Go-to-Polls-in-3-US-House-Districts-262495581.html

It was a race many pundits thought Cantor couldn’t lose, but he did. In a low-turnout Republican primary, Tea Party favorite Dave Brat beat Cantor by more than 10 points.

http://www.wjla.com/articles/2014/06/who-is-dave-brat--104003.html

f decisions are made by those who show up, then the primary which ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., was a decision made by just 12 percent of the congressional district's voting age population who turned out in this summer primary. But it was clearly the most committed activists who did, and those most motivated to send a message not just to Cantor but, most likely, to Washington and the Republican leadership in a year where congressional approval has hovered near historic lows.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-did-david-brat-defeat-eric-cantor/

[leftynyc]

25. Here's a Wash Post link

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/

[FSogol]

32. And the conclusion: "Cantor's loss seems to be much more the result of weak support among

Republican voters"

[leftynyc]

35. So our best chance is to not

only make sure our voters get out there but make sure Cantor voters don't show up to vote the teabagger in. We need to turn him into Cuccinnelli.

[FSogol]

36. I'm sure Dave Brat will begin to seal his fate by flapping him gums today.

Last night he called his win, "a miracle from Gawd."

GOTV.

[lostincalifornia]

37. That sure is indicative of that

[B Calm]

4. Oh yes!

Watching the GOP self destruct with a little help from democrats! It was our plan all along!

[pinboy3niner]

6. CNN mentioned the possible effect of Dem crossover votes this morning

The end is near!

[Laughing Mirror]

8. Brat's savvy use of social media ... Facebook, Twitter, etc.

is why he won, according to a journalist from The Nation on DemocracyNow this morning. Brat spent less than $200,000 on the campaign, compared to the many millions Cantor spent, about 25 times the amount of Brat. But he worked the social media.

There is an important lesson to learn in this about winning an election in this age that should not be forgotten.

[hedgehog]

14. You're right - we need to pay absolute attention to this -

and maybe look back to Obama's use of social media in the Primaries and General campaign. I also think the speed of social media means that Elizabeth Warren has an excellent chance at getting the nod!

[Laughing Mirror]

19. Also Brat's strong anti-Wall Street position

with which he attacked Cantor. That's another avenue to explore.

[LiberalFighter]

30. Our Supt of Public Education won based in large part to social media in 2012.

[DetlefK]

9. Very likely. Just read that Cantor was up 39% in the polls the week before.

And then he lost by 10%.

[LiberalFighter]

38. Cantor's poll was 62-28 with Vox Populi at 52-39

Here are some key numbers and points in that election.

DailyKos states that McLaughlin & Ass used by Cantor are the worst pollsters.

64,418 votes were cast. A 37 percent increase from 2012. That would mean much higher than 37 percent for a normal election held in an off year.

He received fewer votes than he did in the 2012 primary. Not really a good comparable election. He did not face a primary challenger in 2010.



In general elections Cantor has been receiving a lower percent of the votes starting in 2002. He did receive a substantial percent higher in 2004 but likely because there was not a Democratic challenger and there was a challenge from a third party that received nearly 25 percent of the votes. His high was 69 percent in 2002 with 58 percent in 2012.


44.5% ---- 28,898 Cantor
55.5% ---- 36,110 Brat

From a 52-39 projected win to a 44.5-55.5 loss.

[JustAnotherGen]

11. Yes

From reading DU and going to the links folks in VA are providing us -

I think the Democratic Party members had a late entry candidate, an unopposed candidate, and they are sick to death of Cantor. So they threw their vote and voted for Brat.

And on another thread someone pointed out that they have seen at least two people at DU who (maybe not in this election but another???) were registered as Republicans for the sole purpose of 'primary power' and I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that a DUer in VA in that district posted they voted against Cantor yesterday.

Sometimes a little trouble making is necessary to shake things up. It's not something I would do as I always take the positive approach to voting - but if it worked for the folks of VA's 7th then kudos to them.

That's not my Congressman - but I know how much it sucks to have a weak willed lead around by the winds Republican representing me.

[struggle4progress]

12. Mebbe. But the turnout was low, as expected in an off-year primary.

Mebbe the Tea Pots just got a few more folk to the polls than the GOP regulars did

[City Lights]

13. Based on stuff I've read I do think that is a possibility. nt

[JimDandy]

17. Eric Cantor is Obama's best ally on the right?

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha (takes a drink of water) hahahaha.

The newbie is upset about Cantor's defeat. Hmmmm.

[JimDandy]

24. Oh puhlease...

Go back to where you came from. All of your posts so far on DU are complaining about Cantor's defeat. I'm thing about why THAT is.

Cantor's defeat is a big win for the Dems and a huge upset for the Republicans. We have an opening in the Nov election, now. Aren't you happy about that?

[B Calm]

22. LOL +1

[JimDandy]

26. It was dispatched.

Last edited Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:36 AM - Edit history (1)

[B Calm]

27. He's history! Republicans know Cantor's loss was a democrat victory!

[leftynyc]

21. LOL - you sound so

CONCERNED. The reps weren't doing anything on immigration, were never going to do anything on immigration. Their base wouldn't let them.

[OverseaVisitor]

31. NOPE

Low turnout indicate the people total disgust with the choice they have.

And yes it can happen to the dem too.

Likely the politician will mess it all up again.

[hollowdweller]

33. My brother crossed over and voted against him

Brother is an independant. Voted for Obama first time Romney second.

Now he's fascinated with the Tea Party and the libertarians.

He was voting for the other guy because Cantor is Jewish and he felt that he was only conservative when it came to working people but liberal when it came to bailing out the Jewish bankers.

Felt the other guy would be more libertarian. So he crossed over but not because he was a democrat to sabatage Cantor but because of somewhat racist libertarian tendencies.

[sufrommich]

42. "somewhat racist" seems to be putting it mildly. nt

[jwirr]

39. Of course using crossover in primaries is an old practice.

[MinM]

45. George Wallace won the 1972 Democratic Presidential Primary in Michigan ..

due to this ..

Alabama governor George Wallace, with his "outsider" image, did well in the South (he won every single county in the Florida primary) and among alienated and dissatisfied voters. What might have become a forceful campaign was cut short when Wallace was shot while campaigning, and left paralyzed in an assassination attempt by Arthur Bremer. Wallace did win the Maryland primary and the Michigan primary both held the following day (Tues. May 16), but his near assassination effectively ended his campaign...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1972

They have since put in measures to guard against that in Michigan.