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Tropical storm watch issued for the coast of East-Central Florida as of 11 PM EDT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010301.shtml000
WTNT31 KNHC 010301
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
3 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
91L Near Tropical Depression Status; Entire SE U.S. Coast Could be Impacted
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida on Monday morning (Invest 91L), has grown more organized this morning. Surface pressures are falling, and 91L is close to tropical depression status. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 91L had a well defined surface circulation, with heavy thunderstorms building and steadily organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed these bands were already affecting the coast of Central Florida. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over 91L at high altitude, and these winds were creating light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. However, water vapor satellite loops show that the atmosphere has dried noticeably to the north of 91L since Sunday, and the northerly winds are driving this dry air in the heart of the storm. This dry air is interfering with development and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 91L on Monday afternoon.
Forecast for 91L
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track of 91L. The disturbance should continue a slow southward to southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida by Tuesday. The system is expected to meander near the coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a trough of low pressure to the north begins pulling the system to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Monday through Wednesday. Heavier rains of 4 - 8" are likely, since I expect 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will spread to coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Thursday and Friday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model shows the atmosphere surrounding 91L will get even drier this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, will slow development of 91L. If 91L makes landfall over Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, interaction with land will also interfere with development. However, the storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when the center is offshore, and we should not dismiss the possibility that 91L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength late this week, as some of the members of the 00Z Monday morning European model ensemble were suggesting. It is more likely, though, that 91L will struggle with land interaction, dry air and wind shear, and be at worst a medium-strength tropical storm named Arthur with 50 - 55 mph winds as it brushes the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned.
Jeff Masters
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida on Monday morning (Invest 91L), has grown more organized this morning. Surface pressures are falling, and 91L is close to tropical depression status. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 91L had a well defined surface circulation, with heavy thunderstorms building and steadily organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed these bands were already affecting the coast of Central Florida. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over 91L at high altitude, and these winds were creating light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. However, water vapor satellite loops show that the atmosphere has dried noticeably to the north of 91L since Sunday, and the northerly winds are driving this dry air in the heart of the storm. This dry air is interfering with development and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 91L on Monday afternoon.
Forecast for 91L
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track of 91L. The disturbance should continue a slow southward to southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida by Tuesday. The system is expected to meander near the coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a trough of low pressure to the north begins pulling the system to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Monday through Wednesday. Heavier rains of 4 - 8" are likely, since I expect 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will spread to coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Thursday and Friday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model shows the atmosphere surrounding 91L will get even drier this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, will slow development of 91L. If 91L makes landfall over Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, interaction with land will also interfere with development. However, the storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when the center is offshore, and we should not dismiss the possibility that 91L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength late this week, as some of the members of the 00Z Monday morning European model ensemble were suggesting. It is more likely, though, that 91L will struggle with land interaction, dry air and wind shear, and be at worst a medium-strength tropical storm named Arthur with 50 - 55 mph winds as it brushes the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned.
Jeff Masters
The comments section often has some good images and animations of the storms in question, so you might want to scroll through those as well.
Looks like the 4th is going to be rained out for some. Stay safe, y'all
