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tabatha

(18,795 posts)
Wed Dec 21, 2011, 11:49 AM Dec 2011

Notice that the Arab Spring is really more of a Big Bang - Rami G. Khouri

At a panel discussion I participated in earlier this week on the Arab uprisings, a key point of debate was whether the Arab world was experiencing a crisis of regimes or of states.

Looking around the region today, with unsettled conditions in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya in particular, it seems obvious that the answer is “both.” One of the eventualities that some Arab countries must come to grips with, but that remains largely unspoken, is that some countries may not survive in their present configurations, and may undergo modifications of borders, populations and national identity – as happened to much acclaim in places after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

The Arab world has suffered the humiliation of authoritarian or dictatorial regimes in the past half-century because of reasons related to the nature of states and regimes. Artificial states that were created by the retreating Europeans early last century often could be held together only by a strong central government headed by strongmen of the ilk of Saddam Hussein or Hafez Assad. The antidote to state artificiality was authoritarianism. In other cases like Egypt, where the state was never vulnerable because of its artificiality, the state succumbed to dictatorial rule for other reasons – military assertion, the repercussions of the Cold War, and the conflict with Israel.

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/Dec-21/157480-notice-that-the-arab-spring-is-really-more-of-a-big-bang.ashx#ixzz1hBVfAyPx
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

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Notice that the Arab Spring is really more of a Big Bang - Rami G. Khouri (Original Post) tabatha Dec 2011 OP
Hard to imagine any of this happening peacefully zipplewrath Dec 2011 #1

zipplewrath

(16,646 posts)
1. Hard to imagine any of this happening peacefully
Wed Dec 21, 2011, 12:01 PM
Dec 2011

Major reorganization of borders rarely happens peacefully. Egypt probably has little to worry about, but Iraq may have alot to worry about, with Syria, Jordan AND Lebanon having the potential to influence their situation, not to mention Turkey and the Kurdish situation. And it isn't clear how well Kuwait will survive the future either.

I can't see how much of this settles out peacefully, especially with an Iran that shows a penchant for agitation, even if not aggression.

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