Fresh Focus on Siberian Permafrost as Hole Count Rises: DotEarth.

[AverageJoe90]

Okay, I realize this article is a couple of weeks old, but it's so good, I just had to share it. I'm sure many of you have been paying attention to the Siberian hole discoveries of late, whether out of worry, or curiosity, or perhaps, a mixture of the two. Well, in any case, Andrew Revkin of the impeccable DotEarth blog did an interview with Marina Leibman, one of the chief scientists of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who happens to be a veteran permafrost expert with as much as 40 years' experience in her field.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/25/fresh-focus-on-siberian-permafrost-as-second-hole-is-reported/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=arctic&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0#more-52809

I had a Skype chat Wednesday about Siberian permafrost in the context of climate change with Marina Leibman, a top Russian permafrost expert who had just returned from examining the unusual crater spotted on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia late last week.

We talked just before fresh reports circulated about reindeer herders finding another such hole in the region.....

Leibman, the chief scientist at the Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has studied permafrost since 1973 and has a remarkable publication record.

She describes how the first hole (and presumably the new one) appear to have formed as methane is released from a warming mix of ice, water and soil, building up pressure that explosively pushed out the top of the hole, heaving chunks of earth many yards in some directions.....

She said there were no signs of combustion, that the hole had to be at least a year old because there was fresh greenery from this summer season with no overlying layer of mud or the like.

Leibman stressed that there were no indications that such events were more than the normal process of lake formation in the area and predicted that the hole she inspected would end up being a lake in coming years.

She also stressed that she sees no signs of current or imminent warming producing a great destabilization of permafrost in the Arctic: “You can’t say in 20 years it will be 2 degrees warmer so permafrost will be thawing. It will make it 2 degrees warmer, but not thawing – at least in the far north.....

So, there we go. To be honest, this doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about permafrost anymore. We should be. However, though, this does shine some (much needed!) new light on the phenomenon and may hopefully bring the conversation a little bit back towards Earth.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

1. TBH

[redqueen]

5. ...

[XemaSab]

21. +1

[CreekDog]

25. Joe is saying, TBH, it's really not that bad

TBH, don't panic.

TBH, don't hastily try to do something about climate change.

TBH TBH TBH, he really, really does believe that climate change is bad, TBH, just not as bad as all those other people, and TBH, we really should do something about climate change, but TBH, not as much as the people who say we should do A LOT about climate change.

[AverageJoe90]

26. That's false and you know it.

Yes, I really do believe we should try to do something about climate change, and as quickly as possible, at that, preferably.

But yes, the truth is, whether we like it or not, panic is not helpful. Never has been, never will be. And if you believe otherwise, well, then I've got a lovely tropical beachfront house in Colorado to sell you.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

31. FYI...

On Wed Aug 13, 2014, 05:53 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Joe is saying, TBH, it's really not that bad
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5380752

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

This user has been engaging in continual disruption for the past few days now. And frankly, debunking his B.S. is getting rather tiring at this point.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Aug 13, 2014, 06:05 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The post is incoherent, but if we hid all those this place would be awfully barren.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I am not familiar with the last few days of CreekDog's postings... but this post hardly rises to hide-worthy status. Creekdog and I may not get along, but this post has nothing that says HIDE to me...
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: ?
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The alerters comments seem at odds with the post which isn't inappropriate as far as I can see. I have no interest in exploring a particular posters actions over "the past few days". Please keep your alerts limited to the post under consideration.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

34. "And frankly"

[BainsBane]

28. TBD

Nothing ever relates to global warming and we totally need to chill out about it.

[RobertEarl]

2. Russia loves global warming

Soon many Russian ports near the arctic will be ice free year round. Can you say warm water ports?

They also have more fossil fuel reserves than any other country on the planet. The last thing the oligarchs want is for the US to quit burning up fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow.

Other than that, it is a cool article which explains the rapidly changing arctic climate due to global warming. Thanks, Joe!

[AverageJoe90]

3. The oligarchs also thrive on paralyzing fear, too.

And goodness knows there's been a lot of that swirling around lately.

Other than that, it is a cool article which explains the rapidly changing arctic climate due to global warming. Thanks, Joe!

Not sure if this is genuine or an attempt at snark.....

[RobertEarl]

4. No Fear!!

Why would anyone fear global warming or climate change?

Just can't imagine why there would be any fear. We should embrace it!!


***************

Now that was snark, Joe. While you recover, just for grins and giggles, tell us why we should have no Fear of global warming and climate change.

[AverageJoe90]

6. *eyeroll*.

tell us why we should have no Fear of global warming and climate change.

Never said that. Never implied that. But honestly, why bother?

[RobertEarl]

7. Russia doesn't fear it

They embrace it. All that formerly frozen land will grow food now. Much easier in the future to strip the land of the resources, too. Heck, just look at Canada. Canada is cashing in on global warming.

You did imply there should be no Fear. Can you imagine who in this world might rightly harbor such Fears? Well, can you?

[AverageJoe90]

10. *Paralyzing* fear. That's what I said. And there IS a difference.

Did you honestly miss that? Or did you just not care?

[RobertEarl]

14. What's the difference?

And why can't you answer a rather simple question?
Who should Fear GW, Joe?

As for paralyzing Fear, who is being Paralyzed with Fear?

[A-Schwarzenegger]

8. Here you are just trying to give away free climate change back rubs

and (barely) no takers. It's just not fair, Joe, honestly.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

9. Is that the case, IYHO?

.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

11. I love back rubs, to be honest,

but not all back rubs are equal.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

15. I guess it all depends on who's doing the rubbing, IMHO nt

[A-Schwarzenegger]

16. You know when somebody's got kinda clammy hands...

[AverageJoe90]

12. So, I guess you're willing to totally discard.....

the research of a permafrost expert, with 4 decades of experience in her field, simply because you dislike the person posting the OP, and because you don't like the conclusion she came to?

Hey, man, shoot the messenger all you like, but I'll take the word of an expert with several decades' worth of accumulated knowledge in a specialized field, than some random fearmongering nut on Blogspot, or Wordpress, or whatever.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

13. DISLIKE YOU?

I love you, Joe. I can't get enough of you. H.

[CreekDog]

24. So Joe, you're saying that we shouldn't fear climate change?

figures.

[AverageJoe90]

32. "So Joe, you're saying that we shouldn't fear climate change?" I didn't say.....

that we shouldn't be concerned, and you know it.

Hell, I even made it clear that we shouldn't stop being concerned about the permafrost:

So, there we go. To be honest, this doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about permafrost anymore. We should be.

I get that you really don't like me all that much, but you could at least try not to engage in constant bullshittery, taking things out of their proper context, etc.

[Warren DeMontague]

17. Interesting read.

Thanks.

[AverageJoe90]

20. You're welcome.

In all truthfulness, all we need to really do here is look at Dr. Leibman's credentials. She really does know her stuff.

[deathrind]

18. The problem with all of these climate

Scientist is that they hedge their bets too much on this issue. More often than not the models and conclusions made turn out to be woefully short and a few years later they come back a say what they thought would take 20yrs to happen has now happened in 10yrs.

[AverageJoe90]

19. "They hedge their bets too much" This is true, in a way, but not quite how you thought, TBH.

Arctic ice melt(and a select few other things) aside, mostly, it seems, it turns out that quite a few projections have actually been a little too pessimistic, and not the other way around; this is especially true with climate sensitivity but there's been others as well.

In other words, we've actually been overestimating things a bit, in the short term, at least. Of course, you won't hear that from the right-leaning mainstream media, whose job isn't so much to inform, as it is to sell headlines, and grab as much profit as possible. To be truthful, fear sells, no matter how much based on actual facts it may be.

And to be frank, as I've said before, I'd take the word of a scientist with 40 years' experience in her line of work, than some attention-seeking fearmonger on a blog, no matter how well-meaning the latter may be.

[CreekDog]

23. well how good are you at predicting something that's never happened before?

[deathrind]

35. Fair point.

[CreekDog]

22. I am 100% this article was not written so that you can say this news isn't as bad as we thought

your bolded text indicates you still are trying to minimize any news you read.

[AverageJoe90]

27. "you still are trying to minimize any news you read." According to whom?

I mean, this is a person who has 40 years' worth of experience in her field. I would suspect that she knows her stuff quite well.....

[Rex]

29. Honestly, true story, with much truth and justice in the world and minimal embellishment I say

BY THOR'S HAMMER! Yep...those pesky Asgard's are at it again!

[AverageJoe90]

30. LOL. Is Ragnarok upon us, perhaps? =p

All joking aside, though, I do believe it's quite important to keep a level head when discussing important issues like this. Yes. we do need to be concerned about climate change. Yes, we do need to mitigate AGW as soon as possible. But no, we can't afford to indulge in these frankly utterly absurd doomsday fearmongering or permanent decline fantasies, as some folks have(unfortunately, that kind of sensational wackiness is often what grabs the most headlines. Just ask FOX News or Hollywood).

[Rex]

33. 'Permanent decline fantasies' or 'next extinction cycle'? All fantasy has it's roots in reality.

That is the rub, imo. We can laugh at it, we can ignore it, we can dismiss it. BUT as soon as we take it seriously, we see the potential and tremendous change to the biosphere coming. It just is up to the ones in the know, to educate the ones that don't know...then there are the ones that just don't care.

It won't be you or I that gets us killed, it will be the ones that showed complete indifference.