NATO Sees 'High Probability' Of Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

[Katashi_itto]

BRUSSELS/DONETSK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - NATO said on Monday there was a "high probability" that Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine, where the government said its troops have been closing in on Donetsk, the main city held by pro-Russian rebels.

Kiev said it was in the "final stages" of recapturing Donetsk, by far the biggest city under the control of the pro-Russian rebels. The battle for the city could be a decisive turning point in a conflict which has caused the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

An industrial metropolis with a pre-war population of nearly 1 million, the main rebel-held redoubt rocked to the crash of shells and gunfire over the weekend and heavy guns boomed through the night into Monday from the outskirts of the city.

Ukraine appears to be pressing ahead with its offensive, undeterred by the presence of what NATO says are some 20,000 Russian troops massed on the nearby border for a potential ground invasion.
BRUSSELS/DONETSK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - NATO said on Monday there was a "high probability" that Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine, where the government said its troops have been closing in on Donetsk, the main city held by pro-Russian rebels.

Kiev said it was in the "final stages" of recapturing Donetsk, by far the biggest city under the control of the pro-Russian rebels. The battle for the city could be a decisive turning point in a conflict which has caused the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

An industrial metropolis with a pre-war population of nearly 1 million, the main rebel-held redoubt rocked to the crash of shells and gunfire over the weekend and heavy guns boomed through the night into Monday from the outskirts of the city.

Ukraine appears to be pressing ahead with its offensive, undeterred by the presence of what NATO says are some 20,000 Russian troops massed on the nearby border for a potential ground invasion.

[jamzrockz]

1. Putin must be thinking

If I invade Ukraine, then I loose all arguments against USA invading Syria and I am sure he doesn't want that. This is one is going to keep him up all night

[Katashi_itto]

2. We hope.

[Igel]

3. He'll find a way that is ambiguous enough

that either nobody stops him until it's too late--then everybody can breathe a sigh of relief and say, "Ah, well, there's no crying over spilt milk"; or he'll arrange it so that enough people think it's a good and justifiable thing that NATO and the US are divided and tied up in knots.

The "humanitarian convoy" might be just such a thing. Lavrov has Russians and some DUers thinking that everybody's agreed, while the ICRC is being merely platitudinous. "Yes, we welcome your help, provided it meets all the necessary criteria and conditions previously discussed and the previously agreed upon stipulations in an acceptable manner." Some such nonsense that really means pretty much nothing to anybody but everybody goes, "Well, yes, that's perfectly clear."

Odd that so many are willing to take Lavrov's word that everybody has agreed, so that a 2k tons of stuff is heading from Moscow. Nobody else is quite saying that.

The Ukrainians are saying that it's (a) for Luhansk, (b) for civilians only, (c) the logistics are up to the ICRC for the most part, (d) it must entered Ukrainian-controlled border crossings, (e) must be part of an international mission that includes OSCE countries and NATO countries. The ICRC is set to meet to determine need and based on that logistics ... later this week. Most prominent EU and US leaders are pointing to Poroshenko and saying, "What he said."

Russia is insisting that it be Russia-only, that it be now, that the ICRC has already blessed it and Ukraine also agreed to all the details of the current mission, and the convoy can enter wherever it wants to and distribute it as it sees fit using whatever personnel Russia provides. It's also said that the convoy is for Luhansk and Donets'k. Of course, there's a bit of a military assault scheduled for Donets'k in the next day or two, so if nothing else that'll give time for more weapons to flow across the border and the Donetchane to prepare for (a) the assault and (b) the counterattack that the rebels are promising out of Rovenky through Krasnyi Luch.

So either the convoy goes in and Russia wins because it shows it controls the border, the terms of any negotiations, and the territory. And Russia gets to bill itself as the great Savior of the Donbas people against the fascist gay Jewish junta. And gets to delay what may be the final assault on Donets'k and/or Luhans'k.

Or their convoy comes under some sort of attack, in which case the bad gay Jewish fascist elected junta in Kiev has attacked a humanitarian convoy that all Russians and their tools believe was agreed upon, or the Ukrainians are in a position of turning back food from a city that is in rough shape. (Although to be honest, it doesn't need to be in such rough shape: I mean, really, to void having people group up in the few spots that has cell phone coverage some wizz-bang LPR dolt told or allowed the fighters to knock out the cell tower. That's how it goes. They need a really bad humanitarian crisis, and they're getting one.)

And there's no telling what, exactly, is in the convoy of 300 KAMaz trucks (that's how many the Russians said, but 2 000 tons ... KAMazes can carry from 2 tons up to 10 tons. Don't know which kind they're using (pictures of rows of trucks painted white just for this said nothing to me). They can also carry troops.

So, what could go wrong? And do you see any kind of ambiguity that would make an armed incursion by Russian troops seem ... hard to attack? At least long enough for do-nothing Western politicians to hold off until "doing nothing" is a reasonable course of action?

[sabrina 1]

4. That's what NATO is HOPING for, trying to provoke but so far as the Kiev govt kills more and more

of its own citizens, Putin doesn't appear to be going to give them that excuse to start a nuclear war in Europe. Hopefully somewhere among the old Imperial States, wiser heads will prevail and they will tell the Neocons to get lost as that would be a war that would make Iraq look like a walk in the park.

Hopefully no Democrat is pushing for this. We know the NEOCONS are of course.

The only people I see dropping bombs on the Ukrainian people are the gang from Kiev. It is shameful, it is what could have been expected considering the makeup of that regime.

And now they cannot even disarm those who helped in the coup who want to be sure they are not sidelined. Between the parents of soldiers demanding they bring them home and 'stop killing their own people' and the neo-nazis in Maiden refusing to leave, not to mention the huge economic collapse they are facing, one wonders how they have all this money to spend on bombing their own people.

Hopefully Putin will show more maturity than those bullies have so far.