How do some of you think you can predict how a terrorist cell will operate?

[Agschmid]

It bothers me that so many on here are "Monday morning quarterbacking" what's happened up to this point.

Yes we do have historical knowledge which gives us an idea how a terror cell, group, whatever might function... And that historical knowledge is highly useful but it sure doesn't predict their actions.

I get it, this is DU, this kind of thing will happen from time to time. But for you to tell me that you could have predicted the exact actions of ISIS had we paid the ransom for any of these journalists is unrealistic, and just sort of off the wall. These people are here to terrorize, and to be honest they seem to be pretty functional at that.

That's my rant, I'm sure I'll get some heat. Have at it.

[leftstreet]

1. Unlike the US, DU doesn't have 17+ Intel Agencie$

So expecting members to "know" exactly what would happen is ridiculous

But that shouldn't prevent discussion

[Agschmid]

2. Not trying to prevent discussion but trying to encourage people to keep an open mind.

I certainly can't tell what would have happened had we paid?

[NYC_SKP]

3. Benghazi! or New War!!!. We need longer devices to measure the depths.

One more word and some random alert will hide my reply.

We have a lot of members armed with Huffington Post bullets that will take us down.

Don't even try to resist!

K/R

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. What is the antecedent to this rant? nt

[Agschmid]

5. In general I was annoyed by the thought that...

Had we paid said ransom, both journalists would be alive today. I don't think we could have accurately predicted ISIS actions after the payment.

And again I am all up for discussion but some folks seem to be blind to reality.

Does that help?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

7. Yes, that explains it more fully. nt

[AnalystInParadise]

6. There are many methodologies to predict this

In fact the U.S. Army runs a school that teaches how to do this at Fort Huachuca Arizona. I use to teach there. Predicting the Psychological motivations of individual terror groups is not difficult. Sifting through all the information to do that job is very difficult. We as Intelligence Analysts are great at predicting what will happen next, the problem is that we have WAY too much data to sift through. Technology has helped and crippled Intelligence Agencies, we now have access to tools unheard of for the generation of analysts before us, BUT we now have significantly more loads of data to process to make our predictions.

[Agschmid]

8. Good input thanks.

Again I support the idea of using collected as well as historical data to make these types of determinations I just don't think they can always be 100% accurate. I am sure they can get really close.

Thanks.

[Autumn]

9. I don't think that paying the ransom would have kept them alive

but the parents seem to have had that hope. If it were my child I would have held on to that hope. But here's what I really think. When journalists go into war zones or dangerous areas the chance they may be killed is high and the families should know and accept that I'm sure that journalists are aware that death could happen.

[Agschmid]

10. Agree.

I and really agree with the belief that if I was a parent (I'm not) I could have never given up on that hope, and I don't think I could every really ask anyone to do that.

[CJCRANE]

11. We're all self-appointed experts here.

The beauty of DU is that we get a variety of different perspectives, including yours.

Somewhere amongst the morass you will find some useful information, probably more than by listening to the pundits' blather on TV.