U.S. Scientists See Long Fight Against Ebola

[B2G]

The numbers in this article are sobering...

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U.S. Scientists See Long Fight Against Ebola
By DENISE GRADYSEPT. 12, 2014

The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.

“We hope we’re wrong,” said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.

Both the time the model says it will take to control the epidemic and the number of cases it forecasts far exceed estimates by the World Health Organization, which said last month that it hoped to control the outbreak within nine months and predicted 20,000 total cases by that time. The organization is sticking by its estimates, a W.H.O. spokesman said Friday.

But researchers at various universities say that at the virus’s present rate of growth, here could easily be close to 20,000 cases in one month, not in nine. Some of the United States’ leading epidemiologists, with long experience in tracking diseases such as influenza, have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic at the request of the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.

(more at link):

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/africa/us-scientists-see-long-fight-against-ebola.html?ref=world&_r=0#

[B2G]

1. Over 54K in 9 months

Graphs at link.

[SidDithers]

4. Those are amazing graphs...

which might be exponentially more informative if the axes were labeled.

Sid

[B2G]

5. Yeah, they look a lot better at the link.

Lol...gonna delete since they're essentially meaningless.

[SidDithers]

6. Here's a screencap...

Sid

[B2G]

7. Thanks Sid! nt

[magical thyme]

2. they're talking 20K/month

Dr. Shaman’s research team created a model that estimated the number of cases through Oct. 12, with different predictions based on whether control of the epidemic stays about the same, improves or gets worse. If control stays the same, according to the model, the case count by Oct. 12 will be 18,406. If control improves, it will be 7,861. If control worsens, it will soar to 54,895.

[B2G]

3. I really can't see control getting better

Certainly not in the next 6 weeks...

[magical thyme]

8. agreed. nt