Princeton Election Consortium: Senate steady, House on the move (for Republicans)

[brooklynite]

Good morning! From a polling standpoint, there was little genuine news over the weekend. However, other sites are moving toward the Princeton Election Consortium estimate. There are several likely reasons.

First, I spy several new Senate polls. None change the picture. We have two new surveys in North Carolina, one showing Sen. Kay Hagan (D) up by 10 percentage points. That’s an outlier. But the fact that such an outlier is even possible illustrates the fact that she is ahead (Hagan +3.0%). In New Hampshire, CNN just released a New Hampshire poll showing Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) tied with Scott Brown (R). This is also an outlier, since the race is currently at Shaheen +6.0%. Net effect: virtually no change to either race or the overall snapshot: a Meta-Margin of D+1.0%, and a most probable outcome of 50 D+I, 50 R. [update: new poll in Alaska shows Begich +5.0%. That's significant.

Second, as the election approaches, other sites are decreasing the bias that they add by using fundamentals. This will inevitably make them approach the PEC snapshot, day by day. If everything converges on the PEC Election Day prediction, I would score that as an argument in favor of using polls only – or at least letting readers see the difference added by the use of fundamentals.

Finally, the House. In the last four weeks, it’s become obvious that the generic Congressional poll has slid by about 3 percentage points. With a conversion of 3 seats per percentage point, that translates to GOP gains of about 3*3=9 seats. That could change…but it is looking like the GOP will get a popular.



http://election.princeton.edu/2014/09/15/monday-morning-senate-steady-house-on-the-move/

One cautionary note: his model assumes that the two "I"s stick with the Democrats; in a 50-50 split, King might consider switching.

[BlueCaliDem]

1. Doesn't look good for Democrats. What's wrong with people??

Why reward your employees for doing absolutely NOTHING?! And yet, that's what some will be doing come November 4th - rewarding a do-nothing, obstructionist House, maybe even give control to those lazy asses in the Senate.

FRUSTRATING!

[davidn3600]

2. Typical political cycles

The party in power of the White House has headwind during mid-terms. There is really nothing odd about that.

It has to do with turnout. When Obama is not on the ballot, the minorities go back to pre-2008 turnout numbers.

It's also psychologically easier to motivate opposition to the guy in power than it is to motivate support for him....especially true if the public believes things are not going well. Obama has a lot of issues with foreign policy and internationally. Russia, Syria, ISIS, Ebola fears, Immigration, etc.. And then domestically the economy is really just kind of sputtering along. The stock market is doing well, and low-level jobs are being created, but that's about it. Then the whole domestic spying scandal. There really isn't much here to motivate the Democrat base. The only motivation is to keep the GOP out.