Nate Silver: Republican chances are about 55 percent now.
In the world of statics, that means it's a dead even heat (usually around a +- 4% error).
When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.
What’s happened? The chart below lists the change in our forecast in each state between Sept. 3 (when our model launched) and our current (Sept. 15) update.
---------------------snip------------------------------------------------------
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/
= new reply since forum marked as read
Is what happened to Cantor.
Don't beat me up for this - but I agree with something Jon Huntsman said on Bill Maher this past Friday - and it's something I'm seeing in District . . .
Young people (Millenials) don't watch Chuck Todd or Bill O'Reilly. They have a wider group of resources for political information that impacts them.
On another note - they lean heavily towards cell phone use only.
I just don't believe that if we get them to the polls the Senate is going to flip.
And what I'm seeing in my district? Corey Booker could literally flip the NJ 7th. The Senator is going to stay - lets see who he brings into the House in November. 
