3 polls tonight all put Scottish vote at 48% Yes, 52% No once don't knows stripped out

[muriel_volestrangler]

A pair of opinion polls have put support for a No vote at 52% and support for a Yes vote at 48% ahead of Thursday's independence referendum.

The figures, when undecided voters are excluded, are from a poll by ICM for The Scotsman and another poll by Survation for the Daily Mail.

The ICM poll of more than 1,000 voters found 14% were undecided, 45% backed a No vote and 41% backed a Yes vote.
...
The Survation poll found the 'don't knows' were at 8.3%, No was at 47.7% and Yes was at 44.1%.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/292365-new-opinion-poll-puts-no-campaign-ahead-52-to-48-in-referendum/

Two polls last night suggested the no campaign is narrowly ahead. An Opinium/ Daily Telegraph poll showed that the No side is ahead with support among 52% of those polled. Just under half (48%) support independence. The figures apply among those who are certain to vote. If the figure includes those who have not decided how to vote, the no side is still ahead – by 49% to 45%. But the poll shows that the yes side have made up ground since the weekend when they were behind by six points in the last Opinium poll.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/16/scottish-independence-nhs-leak-miliband

[still_one]

1. It will be down to the wire

[Scootaloo]

2. Either way, best of luck to Scotland

I'm kinda feeling like the only American who honestly doesn't care one way or another on this. Which is weird, given that the entire family is Welsh-Irish-Scots.

Will it make futbol more interesting?

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Football is one of the least affected sports

Scotland already competes internationally as a separate team, and has jealously guarded that. The UK does not normally enter soccer teams in the Olympics, since Scotland refuses to cooperate in forming one - they fear that if they did, FIFA would suggest that should be just one UK team; for 2012, as hosts, it was felt there really, really ought to be one, and FIFA promised it would not take GB Olympic teams as in any way suggesting a more permanent merger of the 4 national teams; Wales and England agreed (not sure about Northern Ireland, to be honest - they probably wouldn't have got players into the teams anyway), but Scotland still told its players to not take part.

And Scotland already takes more delight in defeating England in soccer (or rugby, or probably anything) than any other country.

The Guardian has a piece about sporting repercussions - Berwick Rangers, the one English team in the Scottish League (only just inside England, they are physically closer to most Scottish opponents than English ones) will be able to stay in that league, apparently.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

4. John Oliver brings this Scottish independence vote issue...

... into sharp focus here:

[DonCoquixote]

5. it's a shame

that Dave Cameron cannot do half the job Oliver did...where is Monty Pyhton when you need them, or Dr. Who..

Whoops, I forgot, all the best DR Whos are Scottish

[Generic Other]

18. I think Dr. Who stole the Stone of Scone in an episode

Perhaps, he and Tardis are with the other Scots today?

[Raffi Ella]

14. THAT.

was awesome. and informative, thanks.

[malaise]

16. Excellent

[Generic Other]

19. Okay that was hilarious

I wonder if he changed anyone's mind?

[cwydro]

6. Hey! how come all they had to do is have a vote?

We had to have a dang war!!!

(this is a tongue in cheek post for the humor impaired.)

[KamaAina]

7. They had one, too

but they lost.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland#Medieval_period

The death of Alexander III in March 1286, followed by that of his granddaughter Margaret, Maid of Norway, broke the centuries-old succession line of Scotland's kings and shattered the 200-year golden age that began with David I. Edward I of England was asked to arbitrate between claimants for the Scottish crown, and he organised a process known as the Great Cause to identify the most legitimate claimant. John Balliol was pronounced king in the Great Hall of Berwick Castle on 17 November 1292 and inaugurated at Scone on 30 November, St. Andrew's Day. Edward I, who had coerced recognition as Lord Paramount of Scotland, the feudal superior of the realm, steadily undermined John's authority. In 1294, Balliol and other Scottish lords refused Edward's demands to serve in his army against the French. Instead the Scottish parliament sent envoys to France to negotiate an alliance. Scotland and France sealed a treaty on 23 October 1295, known as the Auld Alliance (1295–1560). War ensued and King John was deposed by Edward who took personal control of Scotland. Andrew Moray and William Wallace initially emerged as the principal leaders of the resistance to English rule in what became known as the Wars of Scottish Independence (1296–1328).

The nature of the struggle changed significantly when Robert the Bruce, Earl of Carrick, killed his rival John Comyn on 10 February 1306 at Greyfriars Kirk in Dumfries. He was crowned king (as Robert I) less than seven weeks later. Robert I battled to restore Scottish Independence as King for over 20 years, beginning by winning Scotland back from the Norman English invaders piece by piece. Victory at the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314 proved the Scots had regained control of their kingdom. In 1315, Edward Bruce, brother of the King, was briefly appointed High King of Ireland during an ultimately unsuccessful Scottish invasion of Ireland aimed at strengthening Scotland's position in its wars against England. In 1320 the world's first documented declaration of independence, the Declaration of Arbroath, won the support of Pope John XXII, leading to the legal recognition of Scottish sovereignty by the English Crown.

However, war with England continued for several decades after the death of Bruce. A civil war between the Bruce dynasty and their long-term Comyn-Balliol rivals lasted until the middle of the 14th century. Although the Bruce dynasty was successful, David II's lack of an heir allowed his half-nephew Robert II to come to the throne and establish the Stewart Dynasty. The Stewarts ruled Scotland for the remainder of the Middle Ages. The country they ruled experienced greater prosperity from the end of the 14th century through the Scottish Renaissance to the Reformation. This was despite continual warfare with England, the increasing division between Highlands and Lowlands, and a large number of royal minorities.

[jwirr]

9. If they had stood together they would have been the ones who rule England today but unfortunately

Scots tended to fight as much between themselves as against England. I would have liked to see what it would have been like had they moved as one.

[craigmatic]

8. If the yes vote wins i hope Rowdy Roddy Piper runs for PM.

[KamaAina]

10. Nae!

[craigmatic]

12. Or Groundskeeper Willy or Scrooge McDuck

[KamaAina]

13. That was Groundskeeper Willie

And are we sure Scrooge McDuck isn't Irish?

[craigmatic]

15. Of course he's a Scot. He wears spats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. What the final polls tell us

It’s been a long journey, but we’ve finally arrived at the eve-of-referendum polls. For a lot of the Scottish referendum campaign the discussion about polls was one of right or wrong – we had lots of polls showing the same trend (flatlining!), but showing different absolute figures. Companies like MORI, TNS and YouGov were showing big NO leads; companies like Panelbase and Survation were showing a tight race. Then we had a period of some companies showing a strong movement towards YES, some not, and we have ended up with everyone showing much the same figures (what was the true picture earlier in the campaign we will never know for sure – by definition you can check eve-of-election results against reality, but never mid-term ones). With one MORI poll still to come, here are the YES shares in the latest polls from each company (taking the online and telephone methodologies seperately for those companies who have done both):

Ipsos MORI (phone) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
Panelbase (online) 48%
ICM (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 48%
Survation (online) 48%
Survation (phone) 47%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8995

[malaise]

17. More here

http://www.theguardian.com/uk