Audi gets first California permit to test self-driving cars on public roads and highways.

[CK_John]

This is going to be the biggest issue in 2016 and the DNC better get a platform position.

The progress thinker will jump on the bandwagon for technical development but beware... the problem of job loss could end in 80% layoff of over the road drivers, totally gut the teamsters.

Link
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/california-begins-issuing-permits-testing-self-driving-cars-n204906

[Todays_Illusion]

1. The self driving cars will be safer than the texting while driving cars.

[CK_John]

2. I agree but I believe they will displace millions of middle class jobs.

[Todays_Illusion]

3. What will be the standard of measuring a human's value if it is not on the value of their labor?

We are moving from a worker based economy, we better speak up or the wealthy will speak for us.

The libertarians have a slick plan, take a subsistence allowance in exchange for leaving the economic and political life of the nation, take the basic income, surrender your economic and political rights. They decide how much.


Does that appeal to you?

[CK_John]

6. I don't understand your question?

[NYC_SKP]

4. What jobs? I can't imagine what jobs would be displaced?

Personal drivers, maybe? Taxi drivers? Who would be losing their job behind this?

[CK_John]

5. I would thing UPS and most 18 wheelers, taxis alone would be a very large group.

[politicat]

7. Trucking, delivery, bus driving. Just to name three off the top of my head.

Though I don't think those are good for automation because the combination of complex route finding and other duty complexity makes them still require human beings. Bus drivers have to wait for cyclists to load their bikes, and assist the disabled with the lifts, plus make space decisions (such as when bus is full, nobody getting off, and 20 people at the stop -- does the bus stop and sardine in a few more, pissing off those who can't squeeze on, or annoy them all, knowing that the next bus is 5 minutes back?) no matter how sophisticated the software, that's going to be tricky. Delivery robots will have issues negotiating stairs, paths, gates and temporary obstacles (like toys in the yard). OTR requires massive decision making -- weather, traffic, construction.

The best use for autonomous driving is commuting and individual trip, with a central subscriber system rather than individual ownership of cars. Take a family of four, two kids in two different schools, two adults working at two different jobs. Instead of each parent having to drop off a child at school, or one parent having to drop both off, the autonomous car picks up each person individually, drops off, and goes off to next customer (elderly single person who no longer drives, then a midday dentist appointment, then a grocery trip, et cetera). The cars are in use 90% of the time, and rarely parked. But that diminishes significant waste -- parking lots can be down to 10 or 15% capacity instead of 200% as they are now; which makes neighborhoods more walking/bike friendly; which diminishes the carbon footprint of car manufacturing (since 5 cars can serve 20 households instead of the current 30-60) and the carbon footprint of machines burning oil (warm cars are more efficient than cold, and just fewer cars at all), which cuts the amount of wear on roads and bridges. It will also be safer for everyone to be a pedestrian or cyclist, which helps both pollution and traffic, and encourages the New Urbanist/Strong Town model of planning.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

8. I think some of the first uses will be over the road truckers.

Though I don't think automation will remove the driver (initially). Like airline pilots, the divers' work load will be diminished to improve safety. But, yeah, they will get rid of drivers as soon as possible.

[CK_John]

10. Spain is testing convoys of 15 18 wheelers with only a driver in the lead truck.

Tests are run on their version of our interstate. Tests completely span the country.

[politicat]

13. And I think that's the worst place to start.

Now, admittedly, I'm kind of a freak on this, but I think the interstate system should not only have dedicated truck lanes, but rails, and trucks should have the same rail/tire systems that train repair trucks have. (The logic being that rails have much lower rolling resistance, making the trucks far more efficient.)

But even trains aren't autonomous (though, to be fair, neither are planes) and the potential for train accidents due to driver distraction/attention failure/error is orders of magnitude lower than any vehicle with tires. (Rails are limited.)

But I'm known to be utopian about transportation and logistics. I grew up with a civil engineer, and bad engineering was always good for a few hours of grousing.

[MADem]

30. +1 nt

[snooper2]

15. you are addicted to this whole self-driving-car thing LOL

If you end up going to a convention or something make sure they have the race feature-


I.E., when "self-driving-car" is at a red light and you are next to it revving your engine, the car knows to go into race mode

[CK_John]

17. Tunnel vision blocks out 99% of the big picture.

[snooper2]

20. Self driving car only gets tunnel vision if relays #3, #17 and rear#9 fail

So, are you going to promote the race feature PLEASE!

I want to see if a self driving car can side-step the clutch Or, even just a neutral drop

[CK_John]

21. Let me try to answer, the technology is here, it will have great social change.

It will require major changes in the laws of every state. Ergo it will be a political opportunity for every senate and house crook in the country to demand payoffs.

I don't know it will play out but I know that it is up there with the flag and apple pie.

Our party will need to be aware and ready for the blowback from the public.

At 74 whose 1st car was 46 mercury, it will not affect me very much.

[snooper2]

22. So when we get ice storm here in DFW can I tell my self driving truck to drift down Plano Parkway?

Self Driving car-

ENGAGE DRIFT MODE till next intersection!

People need to be thinking these things out as well

[CK_John]

25. Its up to the auto companies to present their products, this OP is about the politics.

Contact your Congress rep and find out how they stand on self-drive or if they even know about it.

[LanternWaste]

26. As does an irrational obsession...

As does an irrational obsession...

[CK_John]

31. How so is it any different from thinking if Sanders will run as an IND or not?

[Nye Bevan]

9. And the introduction of the gas powered automobile hurt the blacksmiths.

Some jobs will be lost, others will be gained.

[CK_John]

12. But the timing of the introduction of this technology melds with the 2016 elections.

Every NIMBY and local political hack will be breaking out his/her soapbox. The social change will be something and our party better discuss and prepare for this issue.

[LanternWaste]

28. And the timing of the U.S. auto industries development coincided with the Taft/Parker elections...

And the timing of the U.S. auto industries development coincided with the Taft/Parker elections...

In each case the premise lies entirely on the logical fallacy of post hoc ergo prompter hoc.

[KittyWampus]

11. So rather than benefit the environment and society by providing mass transit>

we end up with millions of self-driving cars?

So "drivers" can do what?

I can see where these cars might be worthwhile to handicapped.

But to fully abled citizens, it comes across as a way to enable deeply dysfunctional behavior.

[CK_John]

14. The technology is here and these issues will need to be faced. I'm just trying to avoid waiting

until Oct 2016 to face the issue, doing our old reactive OMG how could they do that.

[KittyWampus]

19. I appreciate your bringing it up as a potential issue.

[Xithras]

16. Actually, there is a potential for major environmental benefit.

Self driving cars can be tuned to provide maximum fuel efficiency, and to always drive like "hypermilers". They can be tuned to always find the shortest route, and to automatically avoid traffic jams. One of their greatest environmental promises is that they might eliminate those smog belching, fuel burning traffic jams in the first place.

One of the biggest environmental problems with todays cars is the DRIVER. Automating the car solves that problem.

[KittyWampus]

18. a fraction of the benefit than would be had by mass transit. It's like crowing over energy savings

you get using X technology but you build a house 5x larger and use 10X more energy. In the end you either still end up using more energy over all or there is no benefit at all.

Mass transit solves the problems of too many drivers, too much traffic etc.

Sorry, on an individual level I would only support these for severely handicapped.

On larger scale only for mass transit.

Americans need to get over their sick addiction to individual cars. It's sophomoric, expensive on so many levels and dysfunctional.

[The2ndWheel]

27. It's not really about getting over it

The cheaper X is, the more individual X will get. Then, of course, if you can take the individual out of the equation and just automate it, even better.

If you want people to take more mass transit, you either have to make cars more expensive, gas more expensive, or make mass transit more convenient, which will probably cost more money.

[politicat]

24. Millions fewer cars, ultimately.

The reason I own a car is because it cannot drive itself. I use mine no more than an hour a day. The rest of the time, it's just taking up space in either my driveway or a parking lot. If I could have a share of a car, I would not own one. (That service is beginning to exist in my area, but it's not there yet. It's glorified Enterprise or Hertz, which isn't the point.)

Now imagine a car sharing service with autonomous cars and many people using the same car for the service. Abby goes to work at 7, the car picks up Brian at 7:30, drops him off, picks up Conan at 8, drops him off, picks up Dana at 8:30, then Edith at 9. Then it goes to get Frank for a doctor's appointment, then Gennie for grocery shopping, then Henry for lunch, then Irina from school for a piano lesson, then Jess for basketball then Kim for dinner out then Lee for an evening shopping trip then Mike from happy hour then Nat from a date. Another car picks up Frank at 11, Gennie at 2, Abby at 4, Brian at 5, and so on. The cars are never in a parking lot until middle of the night service. The people use them for transportation, then dismiss it and it goes on to next job.

It costs $9k a year to own a car. Our local bus passes are $960 a year. If you assume a car fare for an autonomous service is around $5 a use, a single user commuting is going to be about $3500 a year -- but couple an autonomous service with multi-modal transit (walking, biking, transit) and cost to user will be less than a car for fewer cars over all. Most households in the US are not efficiently sharing cars -- each adult has one, and that car spends most of its time sitting parked.

Parking lots are an enormous cost, not only to business (because parking lots must be based on highest demand rather than average use, that's why 95% of parking lots are 80% empty 90% of the time --they have to build for Black Friday, not Tuesday at 10:30), but environmentally and socially. A giant parking lot is a moat. It physically divides communities and makes walking difficult and they exist entirely for the convenience of the car, not the people. They contribute to the heat island effect in cities, and they're terrible for rain water and ground water since they're non-permeable and usually made of petroleum. The parking lot model of business development makes walking, biking and public transit more difficult and less attractive.

An autonomous system will also have the option of special request vehicles. I need a truck about three times a year. I need my hatchback (I drive a Soul) about once a month. The rest of the time, I need one seat. If I were one of my siblings, I might need two or three seats on a regular basis (sibs have kids; I don't), but an autonomous system can have highly efficient, one person units, or two or three, or six seaters. 85% of all car trips in the US are one person, going under 10 miles. We should build our traffic structure for most common, but instead, we've built it for trucks carrying tons of cargo and buses going 300 miles with 80 passengers. It's bad design, and suburbanization, the cul de sac and street-road hybrids have made the bad design necessary. (Note that this stuff didn't exist until 50 years ago. This is not how we built cities for 5000 years.) the bad design is the result of cars. Change the ways cars behave, and the bad design becomes a tragic footnote in civil engineering, much like Brutalist architecture or Victorian Gothic.

[KittyWampus]

36. Easier to imagine mass transit like the rest of the first world countries have.

[politicat]

43. Depends where you are.

The cities that were born before automobiles can do mass transit easily because they're built for walking. But out here in the west, with the exception of Portland, our cities are mostly post-car. We're stuck with that map for at least another decade. The development of mass transit in cities that are many square miles in size is hugely expensive, and the current infrastructure has significant barriers to walkability and mass transit currently built in. And mass transit doesn't work well at all in small towns.

I'd like to see a tiering system -- neighborhoods have jitney circulators that connect to hubs that connect to regional systems -- but it's going to take redevelopment, and to stop building 50k square feet big boxes that have 30 year life spans that are in the middle of 5 acre parking lots. It means that we have to stop building highways in the middle of residential neighborhoods. We have to stop approving single buildings on a whole block surrounded by parking. (Think any fast food restaurant.) we have to stop with the cul de sac neighborhoods where just getting out of the neighborhood is a mile hike. We have to build wide, shaded, straight streets with sidewalks.

Mass transit does little good if the most granular subdivision (the neighborhood) is not walkable. If little Jamie has to wade through a foot of snow over a half mile with no or minimal sidewalk to get to the bus stop, then has to cross 6 lanes of traffic, that's not functional for mass transit. Walkability is cheap -- turn the 6 lane highway in the middle of suburbia into a boulevard, with a pleasant walking/biking space down the center, parking on the sides, and slow it down. Put redevelopment money into bringing row buildings up to code, rather than knocking them down and replacing with a big box and a fast food restaurant. Stop giving franchises small business benefits because they're hurting us.

It's all a system -- it all works together. The 50 year experiment with suburbia is failed, but we have to live on this map for a while longer. Which makes small, autonomous vehicles the transition to full mass transit, and the solution in small towns and rural areas.

[PasadenaTrudy]

23. I can't see this

being an issue for a very long time. What, are they going to make everyone go out and buy one of these cars?

[politicat]

33. The national fleet turns over about every 8 years.

Some people buy a new every couple years, some stretch them until the wheels fall off, but the good bet is always that within a decade, much of the fleet is rotating out. If autonomous cars appeared on the market tomorrow, by 2024, 80% of the fleet would be autonomous capable, and by 2034, it would be 99%. (Currently, less than 2% of cars on the road were built before 1994.)

I will personally camp out like it's a Lord of the Rings opening night to buy an electric autonomous. I hate driving, I hate putting gas in the tank, I hate everything about cars except the fact that they get me from place to place without making me carsick like the bus does. (It's the stops and starts and not being able to predict them coming because I can't see the traffic.) I have so many better uses for my time than driving.

But getting the legal infrastructure in place is something we have to think about -- this will be as disruptive a technology as the car was. It will change how we insure, how we develop neighborhoods, how we handle streets and roads and sidewalks and pedestrians. How we license and how we hold people responsible (can I put a 12 year old in an autonomous programmed to take her to school? Or does she need an adult in the car? She's allowed to call a taxi, or walk to school, so.... What will be the law?)

It will be an issue, and a lot sooner than expected. After all, 15 years ago, nobody was making laws about hands-free cellphones and banning texting.

[PasadenaTrudy]

35. I love driving

I love my Mazda. Not giving it up unless I have to.

[Cali_Democrat]

29. "This is going to be the biggest issue in 2016"

[CK_John]

32. Name something else that will effect every voter in the country.

[belcffub]

34. I will love it when I can get one

at an affordable price

I live in an urban area... work 3.5 miles away... to take a bus I have to switch busses or walk about a mile... tried it for a while but in the end I did not feel like doing it...

I used to ride my bike but that is only an option about half the year... and then I get caught in the rain more then I care too... I then need to carry a change of clothing, lunch, laptop... almost getting hit by cars (maybe less of a problem when most cars drive themselves) makes things less then fun...

I drive a large SUV... a small car does not work for me... I have country property and need a 4x4 to get to it and be able to haul things... I'm assuming most self driving cars will still allow me to drive myself when needed... my commute is so short the gas mileage does not matter so much...

I'm also a Vol Fire Fighter... The large SUV allows me to pull out of my driveway at 2am when the roads are not plowed, there's two feet of fresh powder is down and get to the scene... A self diving car would allow me to get my gear on in transit... maybe... for ems I can get my first aid kit ready if I'm the first person there (we have a vehicle that comes with full first aid kit but sometimes if its not far from my home I could be there a couple of minutes before them)

When I do not have to drive my self I can take care of other things... I am looking forward to it...

[KamaAina]

37. Is anyone testing a self-driving truck?

I have not heard of such a thing, and I'm in the "Capital of Silicon Valley".

[CK_John]

38. Below is link for truck testing in Nevada, Spain and Japan.

Reminds of the old song, we got us a convoy.

http://www.vox.com/2014/6/3/5775482/why-trucks-will-drive-themselves-before-cars-do

[KamaAina]

39. It has to be done

[KamaAina]

47. You called it

https://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/mercedes-benz-reveals-future-truck-2025--the-optimus-prime-of-self-driving-semis-204305500.html

U.S. trucking firms have long complained that they have more jobs than drivers — about 30,000 more, according to the most recent figures from the American Trucking Association. And who can blame someone for choosing another profession, what with the weeks on the road away from family and the stress of just-in-time delivery schedules for the chance to earn an average of $50,000 a year.

Today, Mercedes-Benz revealed the full details of how it sees the trucks of the future making the drivers of today more of a profession than a trade — with an Optimus Prime-like rig that can drive itself while the "transport manager" types away in his luxury studio....

The radical rethink extends to the cabin, where Mercedes has tried to answer the question of what a truck driver will do if he or she doesn't have to drive for several hours. In place of the bank of controls in a modern semi, Mercedes has reduced most of the necessary info into a few screens, turning the cabin into a expanse of wood and leather like a high-end New York hotel room. The driver's seat swivels 45 degrees to the right, so that a driver can stretch out when controlling the truck through its iPad-like touchscreen. And there's a digital picture frame in back for remembering the family while on the road.

In that one flourish, Mercedes may be trying to assuage worries that Future Truck and similar projects will eliminate jobs rather than alter them, making truck driving more white collar, or like the ultimate telecommuter. "The profession of truck driver will become more attractive – autonomous driving is therefore also a compelling answer to the shortage of drivers," the company said today. "With autonomous driving, the truck and its driver become a team more than ever before, an intelligent, highly capable and cost-effective combination of man and machine." We may not know before 2025 whether Future Trucks will serve as a real-life Optimus Prime — or become an economic Decepticon for drivers.

[Bosonic]

40. Humans Need Not Apply (Unemployability in the next 10 years)

[CK_John]

45. That was excellent presentation, and one of the reasons I'm pushing to lower

the Soc Sec age to 50yrs. It is a stop gap solution to give a safety net during the transition.

[LiberalAndProud]

41. Should we have legislated against automobiles

to preserve jobs in the harness factory?

I think there may be valid arguments taken in favor of that position, but it is the same argument, isn't it?

[CK_John]

42. I have no position but I believe that our party needs to debate and get one fast.

The technology is out of the bottle and it will effect society big-time and I'm hoping to prevent the typical "they can't do that response" before it's too late.

[LiberalAndProud]

44. I understand.

The prospect does beg a whole lot of questions. I think we won't contain this technology, but there are many peripheral areas of concern. Who is culpable it the case of mechanical failure? Should commercial enterprises be allowed by law to deploy unmanned fleets? I tend to think not, any more than trains should operate without engineers.

What sorts of legislation would you propose should be considered?

[CK_John]

46. I would push for limiting self driving to the interstates during a transition period.

Mainly because it is the most uniform and easiest to review and keep safety data on.

I would limit convoys to 10 vehicles in coastal areas and maybe 15 or 20 in the plains states.

Also have some reasonable restrictions in bad weather areas.