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magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
Sat Sep 20, 2014, 10:46 AM Sep 2014

Chasing a rolling snowball (this is actually perversely good news. The money people have noticed)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21618783-world-still-acting-too-slowly-stop-ebola-chasing-rolling-snowball

....Yet Ebola is now growing exponentially, with the number of new cases roughly doubling every three weeks or so. In Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, it is thought to be doubling every two weeks. Previous outbreaks were usually in rural villages where it was easier to contain. At this rate of progress, small numbers quickly become big ones, and there is a real risk of the disease spreading to cities such as Lagos, which is home to more than 10m people. The longer Ebola is allowed to replicate in humans, the greater the risk that it will become more contagious. Some virologists fret that it might even acquire the ability to be transmitted through the air by coughs and sneezes. Although this seems unlikely, nobody wants to find out just how quickly Ebola can adapt to humans.

America’s response is the first by a government on a large scale. Until now the burden has been carried by charities such as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which has 2,000 staff in the affected countries. Yet even America’s large commitment may not be enough to get ahead of this epidemic in Liberia, the country most affected. By the time the troops actually get there, the situation in Liberia could be far worse....

...The second need is for trained staff to run the treatment centres and work in them. Poorly run ones with weak infection controls may hasten the spread of the disease. Both are needed soon, as the cost of halting Ebola’s spread is also rising exponentially. In August the World Health Organisation estimated that it would take nine months and cost $490m to contain Ebola. Now it reckons the cost has risen to over $1 billion. The longer the world prevaricates, the harder and costlier it will be to contain this outbreak.
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marble falls

(57,081 posts)
1. "The longer the world prevaricates, the harder and costlier it will be to contain this outbreak"...
Sat Sep 20, 2014, 11:42 AM
Sep 2014

and the more money Big Pharma will rake in.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
2. big Pharma isn't making any money off of this. The most promising vaccine
Sat Sep 20, 2014, 12:06 PM
Sep 2014

is out of Canada and the most promising drug therapies are in development by a tiny company with fewer than a dozen mostly scientist employees.

I think you meant "procrastinates" not "prevaricates."

The longer the world procrastinates, the more opportunity Ebola will have mutate to become more contagious to humans. Given enough time, it may also mutate to become less deadly, but a bucketload of Africans, and possibly non-Africans, will die before that happens.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
4. Some day, maybe. But not today or even real soon.
Sat Sep 20, 2014, 12:25 PM
Sep 2014

The vaccines and treatment are untested, and the more the virus mutates, the greater the chance that the vaccines and treatment will lose whatever effectivess they may have.

Right now, the only treatments are supportive. Providing plasma from recovered patients seems to be effective as well.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
6. the big budgets are going to PPEs, care facilities, IV fluids, disinfectants, andmilitary personnel.
Sat Sep 20, 2014, 12:38 PM
Sep 2014

What portion of those big budgets are going to Big Pharma?

marble falls

(57,081 posts)
7. And so it begins:
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 09:01 AM
Sep 2014
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901190

You don't think Big Pharma makes big bucks managing health and offering services beyond drugs?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901487

You don't think there's a fortune to be made with the Ebola vaccine? There'll be one soon enough. How many tens of millions live in just the area of this latest breakout?

There's Texas Congressmen claiming Ebola is just waiting to get here from Mexico. That's a boondoggle just waiting to happen and make someone rich even richer.

All it'll take is a "war" on Ebola. Motto - "End Ebola in our time!"©.
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