Three early but positive signs that things may get better in the Middle East.

[Uncle Joe]

On a thread by Purveyor in the Latest Breaking News Forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901383

Damascus Says Washington Informed Syrian UN Envoy Before Striking Islamic State Group In Syria

DAMASCUS, Syria — Syria's foreign ministry says the United States informed Damascus' envoy to the United Nations before launching airstrikes against the Islamic State group in Syria.

(snip)

On a thread by flamingdem in the Latest Breaking News Forum

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901407

David Cameron to meet Iran leader over Isis campaign

PM to meet Hassan Rouhani in New York for first bilateral talks in decades, signalling improvement in countries’ relations

David Cameron is to hold the first bilateral talks between a British prime minister and an Iranian president since the 1979 revolution when he has a face to face meeting with President Hassan Rouhani in the next two days in New York.

(snip)

On a thread by flamingdem in the Latest Breaking News Forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901304

Iranian talks with Saudi Arabia may signal thaw in relations


Shia Muslim Iran and conservative Sunni kingdom, bitter rivals for influence in the Gulf, meet in New York

Iran and Saudi Arabia have held their first foreign minister-level meeting since the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, official Iranian media have reported, signalling a possible thaw in relations between the rival Gulf powers.

(snip)

The first thread tells me that President Obama is giving some measure of respect to the Syrian government, a warning so that Syria doesn't shoot down U.S. and up to five Arab Nation planes bombing Daesh/ISIL/ISIS, or both.

To my knowledge Syria never fired on those planes.

The second thread tells me there is the possibility that relations between the West and Iran has the potential to thaw, especially when coupled with the third thread that Iran and Saudi Arabia are talking again as well.

As the second word in my OP stated this is "early" but should these trends continue I believe there is a stronger possibility that stability will take hold when Daesh is defeated.

I also believe that perhaps the world; has stared into the abyss; which has in large part been a creation of the estrangement between the West, Iran, Sunni, Shia and is trying to find a way back to a relatively sane environment.

Normalization of relations with Iran would go a long way toward those ends.

There are still risks to avoid and many hurdles to cross, but I'm hopeful.

[dipsydoodle]

1. All good news. Compliation/recap much appreciated

Thanks for posting Uncle Joe.

[Uncle Joe]

2. There is still a long way to go, but I believe the dynamics are in play

for positive change in the Middle East.

I can't stress enough however, the importance of normalizing relations with Iran for this to work.

We're all the weaker on every side, because of this long standing chill.

Thanks for the thanks, dipsydoodle.

[cali]

3. I hope you're right, but those seem like slight straws to me in a sea of dark things

[Uncle Joe]

4. I hear you, Eva, but it has been 35 years since a British Prime Minister

has held talks with Iran, coupling that with Saudi Arabia speaking to them again and to my way of thinking, that elevates the potential of rapprochement to above a "slight" possibility.

I believe they saw the writing on the wall as to how at worst, if left unchecked, this could escalate into a major regional war, so now they show signs of pulling together, at first against a common enemy but this cracks the door to broader issues as well.

There is no upside to continued estrangement between the West and Iran for either side.

Peace to you, Eva.

[Cha]

5. Thank you for your analysis, Uncle Joe.. and how you feel about..

it being "hopeful" so far, anyway.. why these are positive steps.

And, mahalo for the links to flamingdem's threads in LBN.

I'm calling them "Daesh".. thanks for the reminder. I've read Islamics say they are "heretics" and have nothing to do with them or a "state".. they're "terrorists".

And, it looks like you read applegrove's OP .. or read it somewhere else..

"The Islamic State Is Upset With The French Government's New Name For Them"

applegrove http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025568362

Good for David Cameron in England talking to President Rouhani of Iran.. we know SOS John Kerry and President Obama have given it a lot of energy.. and I would imagine it's neverending.

Rouhani.. has been a fierce critic of Isis, but has derided the US air strikes campaign as it involves no commitment to ground forces. .. they definitely need to talk that out.

Damn, such a precarious world.

[Uncle Joe]

6. I believe this is a critical point in time for the Middle East.

U.S. ground forces en masse would complicate matters.

I believe it would be best if the moderate Sunnis, Shia, Syrians and Iraqis carried out the ground fight with air support coming from the U.S. and its coalition partners both Western and Arab.

Air support coupled with the locals of that region will turn the tide and it will take longer but it will also feed less fuel to the race, ethnic and religious furnace.

Thanks for the thanks, Cha and peace to you.

[Cha]

7. ".. but it will also feed less fuel to the race, ethnic and religious furnace." Excellent point,

UJ. Besides nobody wants to go back to Iraq with ground forces. I just hope the airstrikes are able to pinpoint Daesh and not kill any innocents.

Peace to you~

[flamingdem]

14. Fingers crossed for a silver lining Cha

Let's hope sanity prevails and they work out some lasting agreements.



Por un mundo mejor

[drm604]

8. But then there's this.

The Israeli military says it has shot down a Syrian aircraft that infiltrated its airspace over the Golan Heights.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014901430

[Uncle Joe]

11. That is one of the major risks, drm.

I consider Netanyahu to be a political clone of Cheney/Bush so it wouldn't surprise me if he tried to throw a wrench into the works.

[Scootaloo]

26. Whose airspace? n/t

[Enthusiast]

9. Kicked and recommended!

Thank you, Uncle Joe.

Of course I hope you're wrong. We wouldn't want to waste a perfectly good opportunity to start a new expanded war in the Middle East.

[Uncle Joe]

12. Thanks for the thanks, Enthusiast.

[tridim]

10. Kicking for the big picture that few are seeing. nt

[Uncle Joe]

13. At this time, tridim,I believe the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Haider al-Abadi sees the big picture.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/23/world/meast/iraq-prime-minister/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told CNN's Christiane Amanpour that Iraq has "paid a heavy price" for polarization in the region and instability in Syria, saying ISIS fighters have inflicted tremendous pain, suffering and losses on his people after crossing into Iraq. He expressed hope the airstrikes will do what U.S. President Barack Obama has vowed: degrade and destroy the group, which calls itself the Islamic State.

It's good some Arab nations have joined the American-led military campaign, al-Abadi added, though he said he wished they had understood and acted on the danger posed by ISIS sooner.

"We have warned ... this is going to end in a bloodbath if nobody stops it," he said. "Nobody was listening."

(snip)

As to bringing the country together, the Iraqi leader said, "We've worked hard to make (the government) more inclusive" and "I think we've got (Sunnis) almost on board right now." Al-Abadi said a priority for him after he leaves New York -- where he, like other world leaders, are at the U.N. General Assembly -- will be nominating defense and interior ministers, one of whom will be Sunni.

Its history of secular and political division, not to mention bloodshed, notwithstanding, al-Abadi said Iraq can survive if Shiites and Sunnis can work together.

[flamingdem]

15. Good news from al-Abaidi

Wow, I'm feeling optimistic after reading your post Uncle Joe

[Uncle Joe]

16. al-Abaidi seems like a good, sound leader to me.

You helped inspire two thirds of the OP with your LBN threads, so thank you, flamingdem.

[DavidG_WI]

17. It'll...

never et better till it's out of natural resources to exploit.

[Uncle Joe]

18. Two points.

1. Stability will provide easiest uninterrupted access to those natural resources.

2. In the meantime, the world is changing and those "natural resources" are becoming obsolete.

Even the Gulf Nations are switching over to renewables; primarily solar. they recognize the end days of fossil fuels are fast approaching.

http://news.kuwaittimes.net/kuwait-eyes-alternative-energy-meet-growing-demand-solar-power-station-ready-2016/

KUWAIT: Kuwait is embarking a number of ambitious projects to expand use of alternative energy sources to meet the growing demand for electricity and secure sustainable development. The efforts exerted in this regard are spearheaded by Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) which has recently launched three projects for producing power from renewable energy sources.”The three power projects include a thermal station with a capacity of 50 MW, photovoltaic solar station with capacity of 10 MW and the wind power station with a capacity of 10 MW, Director of the renewable energy program at KISR,” Dr Salem Hajraf told KUNA yesterday. He added that the stations will feed the national electricity grid directly. “These projects or stations will help ease the pressure on the conventional power plants in the summer season,” he said.

(snip)

http://www.unep.org/climatechange/ClimateChangeConferences/COP18/News/Gulfcountriestakingonthechallengeofrenewab.aspx

To find an alternative energy source in the Middle East, just look up. In a region where the sun shines intensely year round, it is no wonder that so far, most renewable energy investments have been made in the solar technology sector. Abu Dhabi's carbon-neutral Masdar City, Saudi Arabia’s huge solar heating plant in Riyadh, Dubai’s plan to construct a 1GW solar park, and Qatar’s Solar Schools project are just a few indications that the region is undergoing a “Green Energy Revolution.”

An increasing number of governments in the region have indicated their intention to invest heavily in green energy. For example, the Saudi royal family has stated that it would like the country to go 100% renewable and low-carbon in the coming decades.

Recently, the UAE signed on to the United Nations’ Sustainable Energy for All initiative. Led by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the initiative aims to mobilize all sectors of society to support three goals by 2030: universal access to modern energy services, doubling the rate of energy efficiency gains, and doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. And the UAE is the proud host of IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency.

The rest of the world is changing as well researching, developing, and building sustainable sources of energy whether it be solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, etc. etc.

Humanity is slowly but steadily seeing the writing on the wall, once this is complete, a major source of conflict will be eliminated.

[DavidG_WI]

19. Too bad then...

That a Trillion dollars with a capitol T's worth of Lithium deposits have been found in Afghanistan http://news.discovery.com/earth/afghanistan-minerals-lithium.htm

and that the only way to hold together these shattered city states and religious factions is by force of dictatorship unless we want to topple ALL of the Mid East governments and let them sort themselves out while also trying to keep every other nation on earth from moving in during the total chaos.

The region was FUBAR by the US, England, France etc after the world wars and theres no hope of us fixing it unless you want to turn it into one big country thats in a constant civil war.

[Uncle Joe]

20. Afghanistan's new leadership gives me hope as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashraf_Ghani

He is the co-founder of the Institute for State Effectiveness, an organization set up in 2005 to improve the ability of states to serve their citizens. In 2005 he gave a TED talk, in which he discussed how to rebuild a broken state such as Afghanistan.[1] Ghani is a member of the Commission on Legal Empowerment of the Poor, an independent initiative hosted by the United Nations Development Programme. In 2013 he was ranked second in an online poll to name the world's top 100 intellectuals conducted by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines,[2] ranking just behind Richard Dawkins. He previously was named in the same poll in 2010.[3]

(snip)

When the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) communist party came to power in 1978, most of the male members of his family were imprisoned and Ghani was stranded in the United States. He stayed at Columbia University and earned his PhD in Cultural Anthropology. He was invited to teach at University of California, Berkeley in 1983, and then at Johns Hopkins University from 1983 to 1991. During this period he became a frequent commentator on the BBC Farsi/Persian and Pashto services, broadcast in Afghanistan. He has also attended the Harvard-INSEAD and World Bank-Stanford Graduate School of Business's leadership training program. He served on the faculty of Kabul University (1973–77), Aarhus University in Denmark (1977), University of California, Berkeley (1983), and Johns Hopkins University (1983–1991). His academic research was on state-building and social transformation. In 1985 he completed a year of fieldwork researching Pakistani Madrasas as a Fulbright Scholar. He also studied comparative religion.

(snip)

After leaving Kabul University, Ghani co-founded the Institute for State Effectiveness with Clare Lockhart, of which he is Chairman. The Institute put forward a framework proposing that the state should perform ten functions in order to serve its citizens. This framework was discussed by leaders and managers of post-conflict transitions at a meeting sponsored by the UN and World Bank in September 2005. The program proposed that double compacts between the international community, government and the population of a country could be used as a basis for organizing aid and other interventions, and that an annual sovereignty index to measure state effectiveness be compiled.

(snip)

Ghani was recognized as the best finance minister of Asia in 2003 by Emerging Markets. He carried extensive reforms, including issuing a new currency, computerizing treasury operations, instituting a single treasury account, adopting a policy of balanced budgets and using budgets as the central policy instrument, centralizing revenue collection, tariff reform and overhauling customs. He instituted regular reporting to the cabinet the public and international stakeholders as a tool of transparency and accountability, and required donors to focus their interventions on three sectors, improving accountability with government counterparts and preparing a development strategy that held Afghans more accountable for their own future development.

On March 31, 2004, he presented a seven-year program of public investment called Securing Afghanistan’s Future[6] to an international conference in Berlin attended by 65 finance and foreign ministers. Described as the most comprehensive program ever prepared and presented by a poor country to the international community, Securing Afghanistan’s Future was prepared by a team of 100 experts working under a committee chaired by Ghani. The concept of a double-compact, between the donors and the government of Afghanistan on the one hand and between the government and people of Afghanistan on the other, underpinned the investment program. The donors pledged $8.2 billion at the conference for the first three years of the program—the exact amount requested by the government—and agreed that the government’s request for a total seven-year package of assistance of $27.5 billion was justified.

Ghani seems imminently more qualified for the job than his predecessor, he's an intellectual that understands exactly what Afghanistan needs to rebuild, that's his calling.

I believe he's the man for the times.

Having said that it will be critical for him and Abdullah Abdullah to mesh together effectively.

[DavidG_WI]

21. Wont protect them from Russia, China or US invading for their resources...

Thats how it works, how dare they have "OUR" resources in their dirt!?

[Uncle Joe]

23. Of course it's too early to tell for sure as to how those international negotiations will

pan out, but Ghani is no lightweight.

He seems to have some degree of integrity which will be most beneficial to Afghanistan.

Under Karzai they suffered far too much corruption.

[Scootaloo]

27. Stability also means an increase in prices, generally

Which is why the US has spent all this time with a policy of either backing dictators (cheap, cheap, cheap!) or fomenting chaos (logic beign that if we can't have it, neither cna anyone else... until we get a pliable dictator in power).

Dictatorships are inherently unstable, of course. But since they mean we spend less money than that most frightful of things, Democracy, that's what we aim for in this region. It's why we keep seeing Kerry fumbling around in Fattah al-Sissi's pants like two teenagers on a date, why we back up the Bahraini oppression of democracy activists, and arm the Saudis to the teeth... arms they use mainly to oppress their own people.

[Uncle Joe]

28. There is a third critical dynamic that comes into play as well.

Israel must make peace with the Palestinians, this would greatly stabilize the region giving no excuse for another oil shock.

Should the West make a good peace with Iran, funding of Palestinian opposition forces against Israel should dry up, contingent on Israel making peace with the Palestinians and allowing them to have their own nation and all the rights that go with that.

I also believe the world is waking up and changing in regards to the use of fossil fuels in general, recognizing the growing dangers it poses to life as we know it, even the Gulf States.

One dynamic working against a sudden increase in oil prices would be in creating additional impetus to rapidly transitioning to renewable sources of energy, solar and wind energy sources would become cheaper as a result.

I don't believe the new Prime Minister of Iraq will rule as a dictator, they've learned that lesson the hard way and with Iraq having major influence in both Shia and Sunni camps, a success there could and over time I believe would influence other nations in that region to adopt a more democratic model.

I don't believe the U.S. has anything against democracy so long as our corporate, economic, national interests aren't damaged as a result.

Of course supporting dictators carte blanche costs our nation more over the long haul anyway and I believe we're on the throes of waking up to that reality as well.

[ucrdem]

22. Good roundup of good news.

Thanks!

[Uncle Joe]

24. Thanks for the thanks, ucrdem.

[Uncle Joe]

25. Iranian minister says Saudi talks

'constructive'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/us-saudi-iran-idUSKBN0GQ1VC20140826

(Reuters) - Iran's deputy foreign minister said he held "positive and constructive" talks with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on Tuesday where Islamist militancy in Iraq - that both see as a threat - was one of the topics discussed.

(snip)

Saudi Arabia and Iran back opposing sides in wars and political struggles in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Bahrain, usually along sectarian lines, and vie for influence across the Middle East.

However, both Tehran and Riyadh were aghast at the rapid advances made by Islamic State in June and July and welcomed the departure of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki this month.

Maliki was a close political ally of Iran but Tehran came to see him as a liability after many Sunni Iraqis, who felt sidelined or persecuted by the Shi'ite prime minister, sided with Islamic State.

Maliki was seen in Riyadh as being too close to Iran, and King Abdullah believed he had failed to fulfil promises to rein in the power of Shi'ite militias that targeted Sunnis.

The ongoing enmity between conservative Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia dominated Iran is a principle empowering cause for the rise of the extremist factions; all across that region of the world and that have now alarmed both camps while uniting a coalition of nations against them.

The Sunni and Shia need to make peace and I believe this crisis my create an impetus for them to do so.

There are at least two other primary dynamics that need to take place for this to succeed, the new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq needs to create a more moderate and inclusive government taking Sunni and Kurdish concerns into consideration and at this point I believe he is trying.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-holds-first-meeting-with-iraqi-prime-minister-abadi-1411583617



NEW YORK—President Barack Obama met Wednesday for the first time with Iraq's new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, expressing confidence the Shiite leader will govern more inclusively than his predecessor.

(snip)

Administration officials noted that Mr. Abadi recently fired two of his top commanders in Iraq. "He's looking for new leadership in the ranks," one official said. "He's looking to correct the mistakes of the past."

Mr. Abadi also discussed relations between Baghdad and Irbil, the heart of the Kurdish region, the administration officials said. The chief of staff to Iraqi Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani also attended the meeting to discuss relations between Arabs and Kurds, the officials said, and both sides expressed a commitment to working out differences.

Mr. Obama said he was impressed with Mr. Abadi. "Prime Minster Abadi understands that in order for Iraq to succeed it's not just a matter of a military campaign," Mr. Obama said, but also political outreach.

"I want to say directly to the prime minster that we fully support his political vision," Mr. Obama said, adding he is confident Mr. Abadi is "the right person" to lead Iraq at this time.

The second dynamic that would help tremendously is for the West and Iran to establish normal diplomatic relations, to be estranged from each other weakens both sides and creates more fertile ground for extremism to sprout.

It's long past due that we worked out our differences and create an environment for peace and stability.