General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsEbola is less contagious than the flu. Fact.
It has an R0 of 2. Measles has an R0 of 18. But let's not let facts get in the way of our hysteria, shall we?
NPR has a good summary:
The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on average, in an outbreak.*
SNIP
Many factors contribute to the R0, such as how long you're infectious** and how many virus particles are needed to make another person sick.
With exponential growth, the numbers can get big, quickly.
But in Ebola's case, the mode of transmission probably helps keep its R0 low. Ebola isn't spread through the air, like the measles or flu. It requires close contact with some bodily fluid, such as blood or vomit, containing the virus.
Now at this point, you're probably thinking, "OK. But an R0 of 2 is nothing to brush off." You're right. R0 of 2 means one person infects two people, who then infect four people, then eight, 16, 32 — the numbers go up fast.
But that isn't likely to happen in a place with a good public health system, like the U.S. Why? Because people with Ebola aren't contagious until they show symptoms.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/02/352983774/no-seriously-how-contagious-is-ebola
The point being that this is not a disease we should fear. I understand that the media have whipped up a frenzy about this disease, but in a country with a decent public health system, we should not be overly concerned. To be sure, the people who work directly with these patients are most at risk. But most of those other 80 people probably do not have anything to worry about.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)They were in no way ready for this, and they would never be capable of handling a mutated flu that is as deadly as the 1918 flu.
Louisiana1976
(3,962 posts)KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)
ReRe
(10,597 posts)... a few years ago with a strain of flu which wasn't included in the flu shot I had taken in advance of flu season. I thought I was a goner. Pissed me off. I thought when you get a flu shot, it protected one from all flu. I still get one every fall.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)predict will be the most potent strain. It can't protect against all strains.
ReRe
(10,597 posts)... and I found out the hard way. Now, I just take the flu shot and pray I don't come in contact with a flu bug I'm not immunized for.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)And do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth with your hands if you have not washed them.
ReRe
(10,597 posts)... I worked in microbiology and set up cultures of all kinds for a living. I learned then to wash hands and never ever put anything to my mouth (like fingers, pens, etc). Never once came down with strep throat or any other disease. Also ran the autoclave for the entire lab system. 
alarimer
(16,245 posts)I don't see a problem.
I do see an issue with the hospital initially turning the guy away, but not the CDC.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Here we sit, days later, the sheets and towels used by Mr. Duncan are still in place in the apartment where others reside. The vomit outside from when he was being taken to the hospital via an ambulance just got cleaned up by a resident with a power washer a couple of hours ago.
The CDC has bungled this from the get go.
ReRe
(10,597 posts)I would place some sort of loud horn in the ER and as soon as staff sees that they might have an ebola patient on the gurney, blow that son-of-gun. Then follow the protocol from there on out. If your hospital isn't set up to care for an ebola pt, stabilize the pt. and then fly them out to the nearest hospital who CAN care for them. Then clean house.
I agree with you. That hospital and the CDC has totally bungled our first case of ebola.
But hey, this is the new improved sequestered down-sized America. What do we want for nothing? 
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)They are in charge of public health. State of Texas is not responsible for an Ebola outbreak. Why you say that is a mystery!
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)What I found was that it is up to the state. The federal cdc can take over if it spreads to multiple states. They do always provide assistance, knowledge, guidelines, training, etc.
I think the discussion should be had about making national standards of training and implementation that states need to provide.
I'm looking to see my own states readiness now.
eilen
(4,950 posts)allowed a man from a home where basically everyone died of Ebola board a commercial flight to the US.
I can't even wear my shoes through security, am questioned and have my papers checked at 3 checkpoints, then have my phone records surveilled, my internet activity surveilled, and when I go to work, have to wear a mask if I don't get a flu shot (while they allow any man on the street to enter and visit at all hours of the day without a mask or proof of innoculation). Every state is supposed to have a disaster plan, every city and community. Hospitals have disaster plans and they should have called a Code Bravo or something when this guy was found to have been from Liberia/Africa. Let me tell you, we are so understaffed at our hospitals that if a pandemic broke out we would be fucked.
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)they identify and evaluate threats, give advice on treatment and control, but it is up to individual health care facilities and practitioners to respond. As far as I know, the CDC has absolutely no way to compel obedience. Thus, the question is, did the CDC fall down on the job, or was it a particular ER staff?
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Our media is circus not information.
On Tweety's show yesterday a doctor said there was no way to know the guy had Ebola when he got on the plane. He did not have symptoms and he could not infect people on the plane. But that is not what Tweety wanted to hear so he went to someone else who could help with the paranoia.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)And it works, as you can tell even on DU.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)but this is not a good situation. I won't make light of it, because there is the possibility that we have another infected patient.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)If Nigeria and Senegal can control it, do you really think America can not? Really?
The epidemiologists are being ignored just as the RW ignores climatologists.
Scientific ignorance gets my goat, no matter of what political stripe.
That is all.
eilen
(4,950 posts)such as a registry of home addresses of people who have been diagnosed with Ebola to screen travellers?
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)They keep saying that they aren't contagious until they have symptoms and that people get I'll really quickly and they would be too sick to be out running around but apparently not everyone is as seriously I'll as some others.
Warpy
(111,266 posts)that it's not efficiently spread by aerosolized droplet the way flu is.
It's not spread by contact with surfaces that have been exposed to sunlight or UV light.
There is no clearly documented case of having it spread by sweat or saliva, although virus is present in both.
Of major concern is that it can be an STD a month after a man has recovered, infecting his partner(s). Women shed live virus in breast milk for about the same period of time.
Contact has to be made with fresh secretions to either broken skin or mucus membranes.
If you're seated next to an ill and groaning person who says he is coming from west Africa, refrain from touching anywhere near your face, no matter how much it itches. When you land, wash your hands thoroughly. Go home and shower, clothing into the washing machine. Also, report the person on your way off the plane so that public health can take a look at him.
Only one case was transmitted from a plane passenger in Nigeria to an airline worker who had to carry the infected passenger off the plane since he had gotten so ill during the flight. None of the passengers, not even the seatmates, have gotten ill.
This is not an easy virus to catch.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)Thanks and thank you for continuing to post all of that.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)and poop out my own gut linings.
DustyJoe
(849 posts)hedgehog
(36,286 posts)"Spanish Flu victims suffered massive pneumonia and fatal pulmonary complications: they literally drowned in their own body fluids. Lungs filled with fluid and their skin became markedly discolored from the lack of oxygen. Mysteriously, it killed more young than old. The death rate was greatest among ages 15 to 40.
We would give them a little hot whisky toddy; that’s about all we had time to do. They would have terrific nosebleeds with it. Sometimes the blood would just shoot across the room. You had to get out of the way or someone’s nose would bleed all over you."
http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/influenza_main.htm
TeeYiYi
(8,028 posts)...if it was really the flu.
TYY
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)to handle it.
For one thing, the CDC still hasn't told the hospitals how they're supposed to handle the huge amounts of hazardous waste that are involved. They're supposed to have the protocols finished in several days. Why aren't they already in place?
alarimer
(16,245 posts)They should have considerable experience with HIV, hepatitis and other illnesses. Any sort of blood-borne pathogen would have a standard protocol. It is my understanding that materials contaminated with bodily fluids are typically incinerated.
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)precautions they had to take were unprecedented. And the CDC still hasn't released the protocols.
The problem is that very few hospitals have incinerators capable of handling the amount of waste involved with an Ebola patient -- far more than the typical HIV patient.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)a person handling material that could still be detrimental to humans (and CDC classifies medical waste of Level 4 Bio-contaminates a hazard) requires persons trained in hazardous material handling.
There are plenty of links. At Emory, when they were treating the two Ebola infected individuals, it generated 40 gallons of waste per day and they had issues getting it transported from the hospital. They brought in an autoclave from the CDC to handle it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/us-health-ebola-waste-idUSKCN0HR07T20141002
Aerows
(39,961 posts)specious claims, and then someone posts an article to back up what they said in defense against the specious claim, and then the poster that was refuted never shows up again.
suffragette
(12,232 posts)Contract with could not haul the waste.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025606162
sunnystarr
(2,638 posts)would be consoled by that fact. If they were still here.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)Then compare how alarmed the press and the public are.
I think it's fair to point out that Ebola is generating disproportionate amounts of concern compared to other dangers.
eilen
(4,950 posts)Heroin kills far less people than Alcohol but Alcohol takes years to do it in.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)What the poster is saying is that this particular virus has a very low patient and body count compared to most other viruses that humans are susceptible to.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)Also they picture people bleeding out of all their orafices (usually not the case) which is scary as hell. Also they see the numbers and the percentages of deaths and they don't know enough to factor in why the numbers and percentages are that high. The papers quote 90% for the Zaire strain....which, in the past has been the case. BUT those cases were in very rural areas with substandard medical care and burial rituals and superstitions that increased the numbers.
When I first read the Hot Zone I was pretty freaked out too. But then I read a lot more books on Viruses and those who work to keep us safe from them and I realized that even though Ebola generates a real gut reaction/fear in people there are many other viruses and bacteria that people should be concerned with.
Ebola spreads due to poverty and all the things that come with poverty. Transportation is often an issue. Lack of proper medical facilities and staff, proper education to dispell myths, difficulty in tracking people since modes of communication are not the same as in wealthier countries. Not everyone has TVs, phones, computers, etc. Fear of hospitals is a very real thing, distrust of healthcare workers is also.
Knowledge is the best way to conquer fear, but it only works if people are willing to learn about what they do not know.
alarimer
(16,245 posts)They are, in my opinion, being irresponsible. Here in the US, we are lucky. It is not an endemic disease that we have to worry about in the normal course of events. I think we do have a responsibility, because of the expertise of scientists and doctors in this country, to do what we can to help the people affected and see that it doesn't spread. I also think educating our own public is very important. This is where the media has been the real problem.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)I think I'll go to a brothel, to feel clean again.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)I think the jury is still out on the contagion and transmission factors of this particular strain.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Carry on.
Boo.
Puzzledtraveller
(5,937 posts)It's about who's watch things like this happen on. Very easy to spot.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)
ecstatic
(32,705 posts)seem to be evenly split between trolls and supporters. Just kidding. It's evenly split between well-known critics and supporters. lol.
Puzzledtraveller
(5,937 posts)there are a few that cross the lines from time to time. I find it all very interesting. Say's too much about the amount of time I have on my hands.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)No one is saying "hurray for ebola" people are just trying to point out where misinformation is causing people to panic when they do not need to.
Someone made a very good comparison about the media and societies panic when AIDS was first reported on. No one who said "you can hug someone with Aids" was saying that AIDS was a wonderful thing.
Ebola is serious and the world needs to not only spend money to contain it, they also need to start making sure these very poor countries have adequate healthcare/education to prevent future issues, future diseases.
WinkyDink
(51,311 posts)hedgehog
(36,286 posts)What does that even mean?
"Symptoms of Ebola virus disease
The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms is 2 to 21 days. Humans are not infectious until they develop symptoms. First symptoms are the sudden onset of fever fatigue, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. This is followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, symptoms of impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, both internal and external bleeding (e.g. oozing from the gums, blood in the stools). Laboratory findings include low white blood cell and platelet counts and elevated liver enzymes.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/
Signs and symptoms of Ebola usually begin suddenly with an influenza-like stage characterized by fatigue, fever, headaches, joint, muscle, and abdominal pain.[9][10] Vomiting, diarrhea, and loss of appetite are also common.[10] Less common symptoms include the following: sore throat, chest pain, hiccups, shortness of breath, and trouble swallowing.[10] The average time between contracting the infection and the start of symptoms (incubation period) is 8 to 10 days, but it can vary between 2 and 21 days.[10][11] Skin manifestations may include a maculopapular rash (in about 50% of cases).[12] Early symptoms of EVD may be similar to those of malaria, dengue fever, or other tropical fevers, before the disease progresses to the bleeding phase.[9]
In 40–50% of cases, bleeding from puncture sites and mucous membranes (e.g., gastrointestinal tract, nose, vagina, and gums) has been reported.[13] In the bleeding phase, which typically begins five to seven days after first symptoms,[14] internal and subcutaneous bleeding may present itself in the form of reddened eyes and bloody vomit.[9] Bleeding into the skin may create petechiae, purpura, ecchymoses, and hematomas (especially around needle injection sites). Sufferers may cough up blood, vomit it, or excrete it in their stool.
Heavy bleeding is rare and is usually confined to the gastrointestinal tract.[12][15] In general, the development of bleeding symptoms often indicates a worse prognosis and this blood loss can result in death.[9] All people infected show some signs of circulatory system involvement, including impaired blood clotting.[12] If the infected person does not recover, death due to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome occurs within 7 to 16 days (usually between days 8 and 9) after first symptoms.[14]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease
Blood in the stool is not the same as one's innards literally melting.
WinkyDink
(51,311 posts)"There is often gastrointestinal bleeding from the mouth and rectum, sometimes leading to the sloughing of the gut and venting from the anus."
https://microbewiki.kenyon.edu/index.php/Infection_Mechanism_of_Genus_Ebolavirus
Have you read "The Hot Zone"? An excerpt:
Ebola kills a great deal of tissue while the host is still alive. It triggers a creeping, spotty necrosis that spreads through all the internal organs. The liver bulges up and turns yellow, begins to liquefy, and then it cracks apart. The cracks run across the liver and deep inside it, and the liver completely dies and goes putrid. The kidneys becomes jammed with blood clots and dead cells, and cease functioning. As the kidneys fail, the blood becomes toxic with urine. The spleen turns into a single huge, hard blood clot the size of a baseball. The intestines may fill up completely with blood. The lining of the gut dies and sloughs off into the bowels and is defecated along with large amounts of blood.
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16213.The_Hot_Zone
And THAT is what it even means.
kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)infectivity.
You want to go near an Ebola patient without PPE, be my guest, Just stay away from me and out of public spaces afterward. And make sure your will is in order.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)And instead of mocking medical professionals, go bone up on the concept of fomites as a means of transmitting disease, and then read up on how long Ebola virus survives in the environment.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Fully trained on infection routes, contact precautions, sterile environments,etc. So yeah, I think I'm pretty good on those topics. Still not going to freak out about Ebola. RSV and influenza are the real concerns this time of year.
Ebola hysteria is more suited for the medically uninformed.
Response to Barack_America (Reply #52)
Aerows This message was self-deleted by its author.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)And don't listen to people calling your motives into question. Those who do are foolish. I am going to assume due to your name that you are a pretty big supporter of the president, whereas I am a pretty big critic of the president. Sometimes it's just about the science and not about the politics.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)... (that I know of), so I'm kind of stuck with this one. Just between you and I, he lost me with the death of the public option. Oh well.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)See what I get for assuming? Anyway, it's been good seeing you trying to calm people's fears.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)The lackadaisical attitude towards this particular outbreak of the Ebola virus concerns me.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Oh wait, no it's not.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)created is bordering on hilarious.
"The morbidity rate of Ebola more than makes up for its low contagion factor", folks actually say that as if it means anything more than "I am shitting my pants at my personal cause of death being Ebola", which would be about 100 times less than being killed by choking on your supper.
And do not mention that Nigeria and Senegal have contained it already, per the CDC.
The media fear mongering in America is incredible.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)A few thousand people are involved in aircraft impacts with the ground and nearly ALL of those people die.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I was mostly thinking about the UFIT type of crashes in commercial aircraft. Is this stat a mixture of all mishaps, commercial and general aviation?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Two planes bump into each other while taxiing, and it's a crash. But not likely to injure anyone.
1dogleft
(164 posts)lets get all the infected and treat them here. That's just awesome.I wonder why we are the only nation allowing flights from The 3 countries with the worst outbreaks
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)eilen
(4,950 posts)
progressoid
(49,990 posts)
riverwalker
(8,694 posts)That all sounds like the people who write policy but have no idea what actually goes on. Why do you think MRSA has spread the way it does? The same folks that write policy give a housekeeper 20 minutes to clean a room between patients or she is disciplined. They actually time them, when they start and when they finish. Do you really think they can clean and disinfect all the puke and blood and urine and pus and poop, and god knows what else from the entire room, in 20 minutes?
sendero
(28,552 posts).. than the flu, what is your point?
If you want to wonder why people don't trust the "professionals" on this could it be because they are so often wrong? That their predictions are based assumptions that don't bear out in real life, such as people will fill out forms with correct information, doctors and nurses will do their jobs well, cleanup crews understand that even dried virus can be infectious?
I am not expecting a serious outbreak of ebola in the US, but the predictions, now revised upwards by orders of magnitude, of what would happen in Africa were and continue to be laughable. Making everything the predictors say of little value to me.
Chemisse
(30,813 posts)And now a case has.
I am not panicked about the disease, because it is not easily contracted. But I am very uneasy about the level of bullshit that is coming out to PREVENT a panic.
I have always had faith in the CDC and its expertise in controlling disease outbreaks. But the odd way the victim's family is being isolated is shaking my faith a bit.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...but that it wouldn't spread.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)Seems like this is a discussion that needs to be had and that we need to make sure ALL states have the training to be able to respond to anything like this...not just Ebola.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)half of the people that contract it. Not to mention that the fact that so many people are contracting the virus means that health officials are either guessing at how transmissible it is, or they want to keep down panic.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Every single person that gets infected with it provides an opportunity of up to a trillion replications of the virus to mutate.
Feel free to read about virii and how many individuals occur in a sickened individual person.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)But, as an aside, you consider viral particles to be "individuals"? Interesting.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Solitary organism. A specific N of 1 of an example of a trillion. If my definitive language in describing a scientific process disturbs you, please feel free to designate one unit in whatever fashion makes you comfortable.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)because you didn't like my choice of language? Yes, there is a debate as to whether or not virii are "technically organisms" in the same way as bacterium and ameboid individual specimen are.
Since I'm on a message board, and not offering a dissertation on the evolution of virii, Ebola and this isn't my thesis on the subject, take your nitpicking elsewhere.
LostInAnomie
(14,428 posts)... that they can't get around to spreading it.
Most people with the flu still go to work.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)are so glad to have a job that they will go to work until they are keeling over at their desks rather than take time off?
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)The Boy Who Tricked Ebola
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/news-stories/video/boy-who-tricked-ebola
Obviously, he wasn't that sick. I'm guessing that there are others also have gotten mild cases that were undetected (but are still contagious.)
PCIntern
(25,550 posts)than that you will die from Ebola!
So stop standing under that tree and go clean up the vomit outside the door.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)
gopiscrap
(23,761 posts)so folks don't freak out!!
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)I work at a university, and while in the bathroom I overheard one student telling another to wash his hands for FIVE solid minutes to keep from getting Ebola...
Aerows
(39,961 posts)for a full minute to prevent the spread of germs.
Just sayin'.
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)"I thought you only had to do it for a minute?"
"Nah, now it's five, just to be sure"
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)argh
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...where you would wash your hands raw before presenting them to the scrub nurse. Turns out, all that scrubbing is worse from an infection control standpoint. I could never break from the full scrub though, too much of a habit. Fortunately, my OR days are long-gone.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)That is both funny and frightening..... but the long handwashing will come in handy during flu season!
Aerows
(39,961 posts)washing their hands, I want them to keep doing it.
It's the easiest safety protocol from getting sick by a wide margin.
Indydem
(2,642 posts)It isn't the contagiousness, it's the lethality.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)How good would 50-50 sit with you?
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)AnalystInParadise
(1,832 posts)But the flu doesn't kill at 60%. I am not panicking nor asking anyone else to panic, but I sure as hell am not treating this as if it is the flu. Apples to Ebola comparison......
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)I am not talking about individual cases. I am talking about overall pandemic threat. Ebola is a scary, deadly disease. If I lived in Africa, I'd be nervous. Swine flu/bird flu (technically they are all avian in origin) and other respiratory viruses are far more deadly just due to shear numbers. More people infected means more deaths over all. More people infected means more opportunities to mutate.
Here is what I mean:
Current Ebola outbreak:
7177 infected
3338 dead
previous outbreaks combined since 1976 (including all strains)
2295 infected
1548 dead
_________________________________________
Influenza, death tolls only
Influenza H1N1 (swine flu 2009)
14286
Influenza 1918
50- 100 million world wide
Influenza 1957
2 million
Influenza 1968
1 million
____________________________________________________
AIDS
30 million and still going
AnalystInParadise
(1,832 posts)So what happens if in January we hit the liberal estimate for Ebola numbers and it hits 1 million. And that estimate is just if there are no new disease vectors. Here in this country we will know in 2 weeks if we have those new vectors here.
My point is that people should not be panicking, but their "pucker factor" should be starting to get a little tight, if we have more vectors here in the U.S., people should start getting a little bent out of shape.
Marrah_G
(28,581 posts)I think that educating the public is key. I think that making sure that universal precautions are followed is key.
I also think that there needs to be a discussion on the national level about how best to respond tyo a case like in Texas. its a state issue for now and I think there needs to be more of a required level of response by the states. Not just for Ebola, but for any infectious diseases.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)contagious. Not how lethal it is.
AnalystInParadise
(1,832 posts)But the death rate for Influenza is not 60%
Zorra
(27,670 posts)Rex
(65,616 posts)and not going to lie, when I got this bronchitis one of the reason I went to the Drs quickly was because of that Entro68 that is going around. I didn't want to make anyone else sick if it was that.
TorchTheWitch
(11,065 posts)Yes, many people die from the flu, but those people are the very young, old, immune compromised, have some other illness or disorder that compromises fighting it off, those people with a lack of medication to reduce fever and prevent pneumonia and not seeking hospital care until it's too late.
Ebola kills from 50 to 90 percent of those people it infects regardless of age, state of health or level of care. Though this strain is less deadly than past strains at something like 70% it is also far more virulent in that previous outbreaks occurred in Central Africa where humanity is sparse while this outbreak has occurred in West Africa where there are hundreds of thousands of people mashed into a relatively small areas... a small village miles from any other human that has an outbreak is not so difficult to contain, but this outbreak has occurred in highly populated areas that makes it nearly impossible to contain. It's been reported by the CDC that they expect by the time it is over considering it doesn't spread past the hot zones where it's been it will have killed 21,000 people within a small area compared to the rest of the country not to mention the rest of the world.
Add to that the fact that virtually no one has any immunity to it unlike flu strains.
No one gets the flu with the real knowledge that they are very likely going to die. Ebola is also a hideous way to die. It is just about the ugliest and most lethal virus known. No one approaches a patient with the flu in strict isolation covered from head to toe in a hazmat suit that has to be sprayed with bleach with every patient contact. But with Ebola it is VITAL.
Comparing Ebola - particularly this outbreak - to the common flu is an obscenity. Might as well also compare it to the medieval black/red plague. Just as then as now with people just throwing the dead bodies of their families out the door and leaving them there.
It is not NOW a disease we should fear since we have as of right NOW one single patient with Ebola. Don't even try to tell that to the people in the hot spots in West Africa. This one single patient would have also been nothing to fear had he sought medical help BEFORE he got symptoms and told them he had been exposed. Instead an incompetent hospital allowed to him come into contact with 100 people they KNOW OF for four days while he was contagious. And rather than these people being put into strict isolation they are merely being quarantined at home with their non-exposed families or roommates left on their own and just trusted not to leave or allow anyone that doesn't live in these homes contact with them. Even Nigeria isolated people that had been known to have been exposed and not sending them home to possibly infect their families/neighbors once they became symptomatic.
Given how many people came into contact with him while he was symptomatic it is guaranteed that he isn't going to be the only one infected. The average window from exposure to symptoms is 8 to 10 days. With this one infected person it has now been only 7 days (as it is now past midnight) since he was admitted to the hospital. Symptoms can also not appear for up to 21 days from the day of infection.
If anything, the media and the CDC have downplayed the seriousness of this outbreak by not explaining what "direct contact" with a symptomatic infected person means, making claims that an epidemic couldn't happen here, etc. It's only in the past couple of days that "direct contact" with an infected symptomatic person means less than six feet away from them or anything they may have left virus infected droplets on to be picked up by non-infected people as the virus lives in quantity in micro droplets of bodily fluids that also include sweat, and fluids forced out through sneezing or coughing and that the virus can live in these minute droplets for hours particularly on smooth surfaces such as counters, doorknobs, etc. I remind you that these long living viruses in micro droplets on doorknobs, train/bus poles for unseated passengers, handlebars on shopping carts, etc. is how most people tend to pick up the common cold or flu.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)They are 2 different things.
I agree with you though. This case was handled, is still being handled, improperly and I hope other states, communities, are using it as a wake up call to check their own systems.
I also hope it will encourage people to wash their hands, stay home when sick (wonder if employers will be better about allowing that), get flu and other vaccines.
Sparhawk60
(359 posts)One problem with your comparison. If I get the flue, I am sick in bed a week or so, maybe my family catches it from me and they are bed ridden for a while before we all get better sand get on with our lives.
With Ebola, I die a nasty, brutal death, and possibly take my whole family down with me.
A proper risk matrix has not one, but TWO axis. Probability and severity of event. The total risk is the combination of the two. So yes, the probability of me catching Ebola is less than catching the flue, but the severity of the event is orders of magnitude worst with Ebola.
Therefor, the risk is greater with Ebola. Whistling past the grave yard will not make the problem go away. Ten years from now, I would rather say "remember when we all over reacted over that Ebola thing a few years ago, that was silly of us" than to have millions dead because we down played the danger.
zazen
(2,978 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)catching the Ebola virus is minuscule compared with catching the flu. So your risk of death is also minuscule, but you want to be panicked, go for it.
Sorry, the medical experts do not use your "matrix", I will go with them.
Far too many zombie movies and shows on the American brain.
Sparhawk60
(359 posts)Actually, I bet they do, it has been a staple of medical risk management for decades.
http://www.brighthubpm.com/risk-management/88566-tool-for-assessing-project-risk/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17896534
http://dspace1.isd.glam.ac.uk/dspace/bitstream/10265/667/15/1-9_Health%20Risk%20Management%20Matrix.pdf
Please see chart 3 for an example of a the risk of an unlikely, but catastrophic medical event.
And you are correct; Ebola does not result in death 100% of the time. You only die 50-90% of the time. The rest of the time you only suffer an extremely painful illness and your liver and kidneys (and other organs) may be damaged for the rest of your life. Not exactly what I would want to infect my family with.
I am not panicking, I am advocating that we face the facts and not try to wish away the whole thing.
I always use my seat belt, even on short trips, but in 30+ year of driving, I have never gotten in to a car accident where a seatbelt would have mattered. Am I panicking every time I get in the car? Nope, but even with the low probity of a car accident, the severity of a bad accident makes me decide to wear my seat belt. Every time.
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)than flu, measles, etc. As was said on another thread, deja vu for those of us old enough to remember the panic when Aids broke out in the US in the early 80s. Where did that come from? How was it spread? Do we have a cure for that today? Do we even have a vax for it today?
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)As the details emerge from this largest of Ebola outbreaks, this picture will be subject to change.
That isn't to say that the picture will change radically, or that there should be fearful distrust public health officials and their assurances.
Although it is somewhat Rumsfeldian sounding, we should keep in mind that the public comments are based on what is known to be known. It's all retrospectively based, and is something of an echo chamber set to harmonically amplify reassuring aspects of past understanding. On the otherhand, precautions are taken with respect for uncertainty.
Scientific experience suggests that past understanding should always be suspected of being incomplete.
Consequently, science dictates keeping an open mind. Open to unknowns and aware to how greater experience reveals the unknown, sometimes in ways that can be expected and sometimes not.
We can be almost certain of some things that will be changing: better estimates of what behaviors result in exposure will emerge; better understanding of treatment outcomes will accumulate; better understanding of survivability and factors that correlate with survivability and mortality will accumulate.
Why can I be so sure of that? Because increasing sample size increases sensitivity.
Setting aside mutational changes and horizontal inheritance which often aren't predictable, larger samples sizes and greater surveillance possible, as well as the mere accumulation of experience, have increasing likelihood of revealing new understanding. Low probability modes of transmission and exposure risks that by chance haven't been seen before, will become more detectable as the N gets large.
Believing assurances by health officials is a matter of personal and public trust.
We oughtn't quickly toss that trust out the window because what is known changes.
We certainly oughtn't toss out that trust because precautions taken, with huge respect for the unexpected and yet known, seem to contradict statements of public reassurance.
What is known about Ebola -is- going to change, that's going to be a good thing.
