General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDallas Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.19.14 (Duncan's family in 21st day!)
Days since Duncan showed symptoms (Sept. 24)......24 days.
Days since Duncan was isolated (Sept. 28).....20 days -- 48 people are being observed in this group, including his family and the first responders. No one from this group has shown any symptoms of infection. This is their 21st day!
Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......10 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed.
Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....8 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. She's being treated at NIH in Maryland.
Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......4 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory.
______________________________________________________
The class of people exposed to Duncan pre-isolation have not shown symptoms and likely will not. The incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected. Today is the 21st day since exposure and tomorrow the incubation period will expire.
Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation.
The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson are nearing the end of the most critical period.l period. If more were infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms by today, the 10th day. However, they have another 11 days before the 21 day incubation period expires.
Of course, the clock has just started (and will restart) for those treating Pham and Vinson. Pham has been upgraded to "good condition" following treatment and a blood transfusion from Dr. Brantly. VInson is to be transferred to Emory for treatment.
Duncan's pre-isolation contacts are out of the woods. No one outside of the hospital was infected by Duncan.
Pham and Vinson are being treated in centers who know what they are doing. It is unlikely any workers there will be infected, even i their current conditions deteriorate.
Pham and Vinson each had close contact with one individual after their temperature rose. Other than those two, there is little to no worry whatsoever of infection for those on the plane, in the general public, in schools,on cruise ships or anywhere in Ohio or Dallas.
In short, we are nearing a point, despite the fear and paranoia, where we can feel safe that Ebola in the US was contained to three individuals.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)It's definitely looking better, minute by minute, day by day.
Baitball Blogger
(46,758 posts)to determine if they developed anti-bodies. It would mean that they might have a genetic predisposition to fight the virus.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,758 posts)Can't someone have rare immunities which can handle the virus without being a danger to anyone?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,758 posts)Ebola is only contagious if people are symptomatic. But I have to believe that some people, maybe not many, have healthy immunities that can develop anti-bodies and ward the worst off.
The only evidence that this struggle occurred, would be the anti-bodies.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)causing Typhoid Fever that was infectious even though a person could be asymptomatic.
Ask Typhoid Mary how that went.
Epidemiology 101. Medical terminology has meaning and can not be redefined by casual users.
RiffRandell
(5,909 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)F
RiffRandell
(5,909 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Apparently talking about it-- and asking why the state department placing any temporary restrictions at all on the handful of people who, like Mr. Duncan did, already have travel visas from the 3 nations at the epicenter of the epidemic would be an unacceptable hardship, is the equivalent of "panic".
morningfog
(18,115 posts)That is a valid question.
Panic is closing schools because someone was on a plane with a person later confirmed to be infected with Ebola was on the plane will a slight temperature increase. Panic is not letting a cruise ship dock because an asymptomatic person who may have handled vials of Duncan's fluid was aboard. Panic is claiming it is airborne. Panic is refusing to use logic and common sense.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And I for one sure as shit wouldn't be bothering to make an argument for travel restrictions- like the flu, there'd be no point.
I actually think that a valid debate- which I've only seen brought up once or twice- is whether, if we are going to have a slow but steady stream of ebola importations, we ought to reexamine our standard approach to heroic end of life saving measures. Normally, ethically, in western medicine when someone is about to die they pretty much throw the kitchen sink at them; as I suspect they did with Mr. Duncan- dialysis, etc. and I also suspect that it was in those last terminal hours that the two nurses likely were exposed.
Thing is with ebola (as we see, the folks in the apt. thankfully don't seem to have caught it) it is in the last terminal phase of the illness when the body is most contagious. Really, it becomes as Preston puts it in the Hot Zone, a "viral bomb". And once the patient gets to that point, it is pretty unlikely they will survive.
I think a re-examination of how we treat ebola patients in that last phase may be in order if we really want to protect the lives of health care workers- maybe pain management and isolation is better than a whole bunch of invasive procedures which are not likely to work but may throw a ton of viral material up into the air (not the same, of course, as the virus being "airborne"
it's an ethical question, because it forces a re-examination of how we would normally treat someone about to die. But I think it's a conversation worth having.
On a different note, I appreciate your acknowledgment that restricting visa travel is a valid question. There has been a lot of knee-jerkery around that, and name calling.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)they don't advise throwing kitchen sinks at anybody, just for the sake of it. In this case, there was a huge effort to keep Mr. Duncan alive, for many reasons--he might be able to receive further treatment, for one thing. I applaud the docs for giving him the best chance they could. It was just not done with the best of safety precautions IMO.
You are in tricky waters when you start defining what is "end stage" in an unusual case like this, with an otherwise healthy individual. Usually from what I've seen, the doctors as a group advise the best course of action. And nobody is demanding someone live if they are truly on the way out. Sometimes "heroic measures" are effective. Give the docs the edge--if they advocate it, go for it. This has been my experience.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)any new patients that appear, too. Our experience with the first patient who showed up at a regular hospital is now being applied in training and preparation at hospitals elsewhere. If another patient appears after traveling here from one of the affected countries, we'll be far better prepared to handle that patient without infecting caregivers and others.
Patient Zero always leads to learning how to handle any other patients.
Other patients may arrive in the U.S., but things will be handled much better from now on, at least in our major cities, which have all incorporated what has been learned.
All in all, it has been less bad than it might have been.
Perhaps we'll stop being so panicky.
pnwmom
(108,995 posts)might have caused the infections of two nurses.
And now we have to start the count over, since people who were exposed to the nurses haven't finished their quarantine.
pnwmom
(108,995 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)feverish and potentially experiencing other symptoms.
So for OP to declare that this is somehow going to be over soon is ridiculous.
He already jumped the gun when he declared that Duncan likely didn't infect anyone, and here he goes again.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)Your OP is again misleading. We are not nearing a point where we can say the Ebola is limited to three cases.
We have hundreds of people monitored because of Amber Vinson's using commercial airlines to fly from Dallas to Cleveland and back.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)in favor of fear mongering. Sick.
pnwmom
(108,995 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)She had a fever. That's a fact. She potentially had other symptoms (per CDC).
Hundreds of people are being monitored or were told to self-monitor.
It's a fact.
So if you are not aware of the facts, quit with your nonsense.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)uppityperson
(115,681 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)"AKRON, Ohio -- Amber Joy Vinson may have had Ebola symptoms as early as Friday, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said, and passengers on the Oct. 10 flight the Dallas nurse took to Cleveland will be contacted. "
http://www.cleveland.com/akron/index.ssf/2014/10/ebola_patient_amber_joy_vinson.html
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)misused. She had non-specific aches and tiredness (fatigue) which could be due to a number of reasons, most innocuous like not getting enough sleep to travel.
"May" is a weasel word, a cya word which means they are not willing to make a clear statement. Or that they don't know if the fatigue and aches were due to ebola, without clearly stating that.
And in this case, it'd be good if they would as it might help dispel anxieties and increase trust. imo.
My research shows the same, lack of clarity. One of the things I did as a nurse was observe and document without judgements. I ended up in court a couple times as a witness, describing what I observed, saw, heard, felt, smelled. I really wish the people releasing info to news media would simply be clear.
"she had aches, was tired, might be related to ebola, might not" along with what they have said that she was not vomitting and did not have diarrhea.
grumbling off now
LisaL
(44,974 posts)And the list is growing.
Obviously they aren't clear as to when (and if) she started having Ebola symptoms. And they say as much.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)pnwmom
(108,995 posts)has to be that the symptoms she was displaying were related to her disease.
The other Ebola patients have described the same symptoms she had in the same sequence -- first fever, fatigue, and aches, and then vomiting and diarrhea.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)same irrational fear at DU...I thought the site was more science based, not media hysteria based.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)WTF are you talking about? If you are not aware of the facts, why are you posting?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)uppityperson
(115,681 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Duh.
Logical
(22,457 posts)uppityperson
(115,681 posts)MBTA station shut down.
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2014/10/16/ebola-scare-mbta-station/
Maybe no one got hurt from that, beyond the sick woman, but a waste of resources and potential harm. How about these? Again, no one "harmed" beyond a waste of resources and people responding.
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/health/blog/2014/10/13/ebola-scare-hits-boston/
(clip)
In the last few days, there have been a number of Ebola scares in the U.S. At the Las Vegas Airport Friday, a plane was quarantined when passenger reported feeling ill. At Los Angeles International Airport Sunday, another passenger, who reportedly had just visited West Africa, was feeling ill with flu-like symptoms. And Sunday, in Boston, a patient with Ebola-like symptoms visited Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates in Braintree. The patient was evaluated and taken by ambulance to Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) where he was kept in isolation.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)kdmorris
(5,649 posts)What if he has ebola??? WHAT AM I GOING TO DO??????? He doesn't have a fever, but ebola because ebola!!!!!!!!!!!
Get your flu shots, people. You are more likely to get the flu than ebola.
Louisiana1976
(3,962 posts)Are people always going to think they potentially have Ebola?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)A cruise ship to wander, untold stress to thousands, generated hatred and hostility and more.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)sure Mr. Duncan didn't infect anyone) a nurse was allowed to get on the plane while already experiencing a fever, resulting in numerous people being monitored or having to self-monitor.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)of two front line health care providers.
Compared to needlessly endangering the lives of two human beings who were just doing their jobs, you'll forgive me if I don't get hair-tearing upset over some school closures and some folks' irritation about supposedly undue "panic"
Logical
(22,457 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)Sorry, but you're incorrect. Panicky people have cause enormous problems already for lots of people.
If you're calling me a smug, over-confident person, you're mistaken. My reply was about the fact that the first case in the U.S. that showed up in a public facility has taught us a great deal about how to handle future cases. Do you dispute that? Did we not learn from the Dallas case?
Were we ready for that first case? Of course we weren't. Did we learn from it? Absolutely. Will the next case that walks into an ER be handled better? Absolutely.
There is no outbreak in the United States. There has been one case, followed by two others who treated that first case and did not use best practices. We've learned from that, and it's far less likely to happen again.
I'm neither panicky nor over-confident. Instead, I'm following this closely and thinking about it carefully. I'm never panicky and I'm rarely over-confident. I'm analytical. I study the situation and analyze it. I go to factual sources and learn from them.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)The only thing that might be hurt by people taking this TOO seriously, is someone's narrative.
laundry_queen
(8,646 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)Response to pnwmom (Reply #8)
uppityperson This message was self-deleted by its author.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Kamorudeen Abidogun, a Texas man originally from Nigeria, said he received two letters from Navarro College, a two-year community college with a campus about 58 miles from Dallas. Abidogun has five relatives in Nigeria who were applying to the school and who were using his home in Richmond, Texas, as a U.S. mailing address, he told CNBC.
(clip)
The letter begins: "With sincere regret, I must report that Navarro College is not able to offer you acceptance for the Spring 2015 term. Unfortunately, Navarro College is not accepting international students from countries with confirmed Ebola cases."
Idris Bello, a Nigerian who lives in East Texas, tweeted a photo of the letter to bring attention to the situation. Bello, in an interview with CNBC, called the college's purported policy "embarrassing."...
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)have contact with a person having the disease is the way to stop irs spread, Saying it can't happen here is folly. It isn't necessary to panic if you deal with the situation and din't just go into denialm
kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)Clearing all his hospital contacts is a huge hurdle.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)He died on Oct 8th. Only 10 days since his death. His post-hospitalization contacts are not in the clear.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It is *possible* more could show symptoms, but not *likely*. I am sure they are sighing with relief each passing day.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)That's in the middle of incubation period.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)Touching the infected body can spread disease. If you don't know that, then you clearly don't know anything about Ebola.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)And I have never, never said anything other than likely and possible. Educate yourself and slow down when you read.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Vinson already had a fever when she flew.
I have never seen reported anywhere her viral load was low.
CDC now says it's possible she was already experiencing symptoms for days before she flew.
Numerous people are being monitored or ask to self-monitor.
And there you are making your claims that it's likely over.
"There are now 153 people being monitored in Ohio because of contact or potential contact with Vinson. That number was 116 on Saturday."
http://fox8.com/2014/10/19/number-of-those-quarantined-after-ebola-patients-visit-rises-to-3/
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It is virtually impossible that she infected anyone on her flight. Remember Sawyer. Remember Duncan. Try, if possible, to employ common sense instead circling like a vulture licking your lips.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)You are making these claims that I haven't seen reported anywhere-where is the link for that?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)There is vast reporting on viral loads. Google it, and read slowly.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Show me a study that says there is a correlation between a viral load and a fever.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)an impossible task. If you aren't interested in learning, I don't care.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)You clearly can't provide the link (because there is no such study), so there you go with the insults.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Viral loads increase as symptoms progress. You are hopeless.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Do you have any education in the field?
Some people with Ebola don't develop fever. I presume you aren't aware of that?
"Yet the largest study of the current outbreak found that in nearly 13% of "confirmed and probable" cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and elsewhere, those infected did not have fevers."
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-1012-ebola-fever-20141012-story.html#page=1
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Fauci replied that "the answer to that is no."
He continued: "You never say 100% but it's essentially 100%. In biology nothing is 100%, but that's quite a reasonable conclusion to make."
Asked in the same interview about screening of air travelers, Fauci said, "Almost invariably, fever is the thing that signals the onset."
The other point is this. Just because someone never showed a fever does NOT mean they were highly infectious or even infectious before they showed OTHER symptoms. You have not refuted the point that (1) people are less infectious with lower viral loads; and (2) that someone with ONLY a low fever has a low viral load.
* * *
Ebola virus is usually detectable in patients blood at the time of fever and symptom onset,17 although Ebola virus RNA levels at the time of fever and symptom onset are typically low (near the detection threshold limits) and in some patients may not be reliably detectable during the first 3 days of illness (Figure 1).14 Ebola virus RNA levels in the blood have been shown to increase logarithmically during the acute phase of illness14 and the bodies of deceased Ebola-infected persons are highly infectious.3
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission.html
Straight from the CDC. You are welcome, and I accept your apology.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)This shows viral load comparisons of who lives/dies. Different thing but I thought interesting.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)I am asking for correlation between patient's fever and patient's viral load.
And we don't even know the day the onset of symptoms was for Amber Vinson.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)Even CDC can't tell.
Also, according to the latest study, some people with Ebola (~13 %) don't develop fever at all.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)I gave you the CDC info showing the correlation between fever and viral load.
The CDC is unable to say whether or not her aches and tiredness were due to ebola or not, true. But she had a fever. Y
You said "Show me a study that says there is a correlation between a viral load and a fever" so that is what I gave.
I am not sure what you mean since I gave you the link and info about fever and viral load.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)The graph you posted shows correlation between viral load and time.
It doesn't say anything about fever.
Some Ebola patient have no fever.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)I clipped the graph in this reply to not be confusing. I had added that because it was interesting otherwise, as I had said.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)It doesn't say there is a correlation between how high the fever is and viral load.
And again, some people with Ebola never develop a fever.
And as we don't know when was an onset for symptoms for Amber, we can't make any conclusions on her viral load.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)"a correlation between a viral load and a fever"?
Post 44, you said "
Vinson already had a fever when she flew.
I have never seen reported anywhere her viral load was low. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5687871
You and morningfog went back and forth. I jumped in after this next post, #55.
Post 55, you said "Show me a study that says there is a correlation between a viral load and a fever. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5687925
I did with this "http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission.html
Ebola virus is usually detectable in patients blood at the time of fever and symptom onset,17 although Ebola virus RNA levels at the time of fever and symptom onset are typically low (near the detection threshold limits) and in some patients may not be reliably detectable during the first 3 days of illness (Figure 1).14"
Post 66 you said "I am asking for correlation between patient's fever and patient's viral load. "
I replied "Ebola virus RNA levels at the time of fever and symptom onset are typically low".
Now you say "It doesn't say there is a correlation between how high the fever is and viral load."
I have given you the link and words showing a correlation between viral load and fever onset.
I am not sure what you are looking for.
CDC and others have said clearly that viral load increases as the symptoms progress. There is a list of common symptoms for ebola, not everyone has them all, and some of those symptoms are also symptoms of other things (achiness, tiredness, fever for instance). Vinson flew with a mild fever, then got sicker and was tested, showing positive on ebola test.
I am not sure what you are looking for as I seem to have given you the information you asked for. I will not mock or insult, just am trying to understand and share what I know and can find.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)So I think it's pretty obvious what I am looking for.
Although it's very clear to me that claim is false, since some patients with Ebola don't have fever at all.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)1. Vinson's fever was low.
2. She was achy, tired. These can be symptoms of ebola, can be symptoms of a lot of other things.
3. Symptoms vary.
4. Viral load is lowest when symptoms first show, increase as the disease progresses.
5. I do not know of a study, or data analysis, that compare fever differences with viral load.
I am comfortable saying that her viral load was low because she was just starting to show symptoms, per CDC. As she gets sicker, the virus builds up, as the virus builds up, she gets sicker. I am not comfortable saying 99.5 is an fever indicative of ebola because even lack of sleep or hormonal changes can make a temp be there. I can not say whether or not her achiness and tiredness was due to ebola, or lack of sleep, or travel, or a uncountable number of other factors.
But she was just starting to show symptoms, whatever of those you want to attribute to ebola, and her viral load was low, compared to how it is now, or will be next week.
I found an article talking about lack of fever in ebola patients, tracing it back to NEJM but can't find the NEJM article. If you have a better source, please post it as I'd like to see what they are talking about beyond a one line bit.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-1012-ebola-fever-20141012-story.html#page=1
This is the only recent online article about ebola there and I find nothing about that study.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1405314
LisaL
(44,974 posts)It's free.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)walking about with high viral loads and no other symptoms whatsoever? Surely, not even you could believe that.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Which is silly.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)what happens to individuals over time. But for now, I would be more interested in getting enough help to treat and contain all those sick and exposed where they are, as well as getting health care for those other problems people have and they can't get treatment for.
Demit
(11,238 posts)whatever her viral load was. That fact would seem to be more relevant than the (low) fever she had. More relevant to the cautious optimism people are expressing, that is. Which is how "likely over" reads to me.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)But they are not spewing bodily fluids all over for obvious reasons (they are dead).
So it's not necessary to spew body fluids all over.
Demit
(11,238 posts)What exactly is it you are trying to say? That the virus is just as likely to be transmitted at the beginning of the infection as it is at the end?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)I suspect high school biology might be beyond your capacity.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Demit
(11,238 posts)She keeps deflecting to the position of demanding that other people prove their bona fides, instead of presenting her point straight. Why, I can't imagine. She needs to justify feeling afraid, I guess.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)ecstatic
(32,733 posts)but you don't seem to be interested in correcting it. Why? Did you miss the entire day of reporting about Vinson's symptoms beginning on Friday the 10th? Did you also miss WHO research showing the incubation period can be as long as 42 days? Are Pham and Vinson's patients being monitored?
You stated "we are nearing a point, despite the fear and paranoia, where we can feel safe that Ebola in the US was contained to three individuals." Yet, in order to reach that point, you've omitted and ignored a lot of details.
That being said, I hope you're right and that we'll come out of this mess with no more people infected.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Of course, the clock has just started (and will restart) for those treating Pham and Vinson. Pham has been upgraded to "good condition" following treatment and a blood transfusion from Dr. Brantly. VInson is to be transferred to Emory for treatment.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The 21 day mark is still the measure. I'm familiar with the 42 day study, but it is a small fraction and not likely.
As for Vinson, all that is confirmed is the 99.5 temp. Flight crew said no other symptoms. Her uncle said no others.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)When over a hundred people are just starting on their monitoring process, it's kind of premature to declare that we are likely in the clear.
But obviously you know best.
One would think that the example of all of Mr Duncans contacts pre hospitalization remaining symptom free would back people away from the edge of all of this ridiculous panic.
Clearly the TV has done a wonderful job of throwing all reason to the wind and people still cling to the idea you can get Ebola from someone looking at you wrong.
Carry on.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)He infected a number of people.
Here, read what survivors had to say.
"The survivors of the Ebola Virus Disease have narrated their experiences, speaking of the trauma they went through and how Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian-American who brought the virus to Nigeria, lied to health workers who attended to him."
http://allafrica.com/stories/201409191572.html
morningfog
(18,115 posts)He infected health care workers who treated him. Read: direct contact with bodily fluids.
He did not infect a single person outside the hospital, even thought he flew with hundreds of passengers in a far worse and more infectious condition that Vinson.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)The guy who escorted him to the hospital from the airport got Ebola and died.
"Sawyer was to have attended an ECOWAS meeting and Abdulqudir escorted him to hospital in the Ikoyi neighbourhood from Lagos airport, where he arrived on a flight from Monrovia via the Togolese capital, Lome."
http://news.yahoo.com/ecowas-official-dies-ebola-nigeria-regional-bloc-223636365.html
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)infected from another source or could have had direct contact, which did apparently did not happen on the plane...your information lapses are getting desperate.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Mr. Saywer infected at least two people that were not treating him in the hospital.
Maybe if you read the post I was responding to, you would see that the claim was made that Mr. Saywer didn't infect anyone outside the hospital. Here is direct quote "He did not infect a single person outside the hospital"
Which is blatantly false.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)and America, I get it.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)his doctor). So that's at least two cases of non-medical personnel being infected by Patrick Sawyer that I can find.
"The ECOWAS diplomat, Mr. Koye, was one of the primary contacts of the index Ebola case in Nigeriathe Liberian-American man, Patrick Sawyer, who brought the virus to Nigeria."
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/167732-nigerian-govt-seeks-to-punish-ecowas-diplomat-who-escaped-ebola-surveillance.html
Ms. Toad
(34,101 posts)reported fatigue and malaise (feeling funny) beginning on Saturday, and possibly Friday. A second unnamed federal official also reported muscle ache. Flight crews (who do not know her, and who don't know what might look like "under the weather" for Vinson) aren't qualified to determine whether she had the kind of symptoms the CDC has reported, and her uncle likely doesn't know the kind of questions to ask unless he is medically trained. If he is going by what he observed, he may be somewhat more qualified to judge what she looks like in the early stages of a viral infection - although I'm pretty sure none of mine know me well enough to make that kind of assessment.
Logical
(22,457 posts)95% at 21 days 98% at 42 days. No reference to the other 2%. So I assume people like you will assume it means forever in isolation? Explain the 2% to us please.
ecstatic
(32,733 posts)I'm assuming they don't have information on when their symptoms appeared. But nice try. Not sure why you and others have such a big problem with erring on the side of caution. Why does it make you so mad?
Logical
(22,457 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It doesn't mean this particular thing is over; as others have noted, the time window on any tertiary cases from Pham and Vinson is not over yet. I think it unlikely they passed it on, but the only way to be sure is to wait and be vigilant.
However, if we continue to allow 150 or so vacationing visa holders in from the 3 nations at the center of the epidemic every day, we can look forward to doing this over and over.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)of transit are doing excellent medical checking...but you carry on with the fear and supporting the con political positions, free country. So I hear.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)The "excellent medical checking" involves a temperature check and a form. The exact same screening Duncan got through in Monrovia.
Let's see, you've got 2 of the classics- arguing against a point I'm not making (no direct flights) and trying to imply the argument I am making - which you don't actually seem to understand? - must be wrong because it's supposed to be a "con political position".
If you want to run down the entire list of bad logic fails, go to town. Free country, as you say.
But maybe you missed the WaPo poll that said a majority of Americans, 67%- including Democrats (so much for a "con political position", hurr durr) - now support some form of restriction on travel from the 3 countries where ebola transmission is currently out of control.
What do you suppose happens to those numbers when the next visa traveler shows up at an ER with ebola? Smart dude like you ought to be able to read the writing on that wall.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I guess if you got nothin, throw ye olde ad hominem and hope it sticks.
Do you realize that they have closed borders in Africa, and that's why with the exception of one guy in Senegal, every exportation of ebola has gone out on an airplane?
Do you realize that have geographical containment inside of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and it's working?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Nigeria didn't have any travel restrictions when Patrick Sawyer came in. They sure as shit do, now.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)You can't really think you're making anything resembling a logically coherent argument.
Nigeria contained it, yes, after a series of nail-biting close calls, including one guy who bailed on quarantine, infected a doctor in Port Harcourt and very nearly set off another series of infections there. And AFTER that, Nigeria restricted entry from the affected countries, which is EXACTLY what I'm arguing for, and to which your only response is seemingly something about right wingers and glenn beck.
Are the Nigerians all right wingers, too, for instituting travel restrictions?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)But closing borders means little in Africa, the borders are porous in such poor countries. It was science that stopped the virus.
NAIROBI, KENYA
OCT 17, 2014, 6:15 AM
by
TOM ODULA
LYNSEY CHUTEL
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Health officials battling the Ebola outbreak that has killed more than 4,500 people in West Africa have managed to limit its spread on the continent to five countries and two of them appear to have snuffed out the disease.
The developments constitute a modest success in an otherwise bleak situation.
Officials credit tighter border controls, good patient-tracking and other medical practices, and just plain luck with keeping Ebola confined mostly to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea since the outbreak was first identified nearly seven months ago.
Senegal did so well in finding and isolating a man with Ebola who had slipped across the border from Guinea in August that the World Health Organization on Friday will declare the end of the disease in Senegal if no new cases surface.
Nigeria is another success story. It had 20 cases and eight deaths after the virus was brought by a Liberian-American who flew from Liberia to Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital of 21 million people, in July. Nearly 900 people were potentially exposed to the virus by the traveler, who died, and the disease could have wreaked havoc in Africa's most populous nation.
Instead, Ebola appears to have been beaten, in large part through aggressive tracking of Ebola contacts, with no new cases since Aug. 31.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And like I keep saying, the Nigerian "success story" was also followed by them restricting entry from Liberia/Guinea/Sierra Leone, so they wouldn't have to keep dealing with Patrick Sawyer situations over and over.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)I trust the medical science. I trust if Nigeria and Senegal and Uganda can contain it, so can America. This is all deflecting from the main issue, contained Ebola in Africa which is genuinely threatened.
I trust the folks that understand transmission by aerosol and transmission by contamination.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Patrick Sawyer.
So you know what they did, after that? That's right. Travel Ban.
TorchTheWitch
(11,065 posts)Since any of them could be infected at any time from the day he arrived for the second time at the hospital to the day he died... or even the last day his body was handled.
We also don't know what days Ms. Vinson cared for him and on what day she became infected. We don't know what day Ms. Pham became infected either. We don't know on what day either of them became infected.
Quarantine days start from the last day of possible exposure for each individual.
We can only estimate Pham's timeline since we know her last day of possible exposure (the last day she handled either him or his bodily fluids) was the day before he died. Anyone else we don't know what their last day of possible exposure was. Because of that, we can't know what their last day of quarantine is.
840high
(17,196 posts)Tweedy
(628 posts)WhiteAndNerdy
(365 posts)I was going to put one together, but hadn't gotten around to it.