Nate Silver's gubernatorial forecast.

[RandySF]

I'll just list the key races.

Conn: 50/50 No Call
ME: 56% D
CO: 59% D
FL: 60% D
AK: 56% I
IL: 59% D
MI: 72% R
WI: 76% R
KS: 81% D
MA: 80% R
GA: 87% R
RI: 76% D
NH: 98% D
ARK: 96% R
MD: 93% D
PA: 99% D
HI: 97% D


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-forecasts-a-lot-of-close-races/

[catbyte]

1. Well, that's depressing. WTF is wrong with Michigan?!?

[HereSince1628]

2. That's the probability he assigns to winning not the percent vote taken by the winner

[catbyte]

12. I know. The polls are tied & absentee ballots are up 9% in Detroit. Still too high.

[HereSince1628]

15. Silver uses complicated weightings, and one of them is incumbency

and another is historic voting patterns...

If GOTV breaks historic patterns those weights turn out to be wrong.

But, it seems many people are more comfortable voting by absentee than in the past...so there is no way to know if early voting = better turn out or if it just shifts voters from election day to earlier...

We'll know Wednesday morning.

[LukeFL]

3. CT: 50/50? Why? And MA?

[NutmegYankee]

14. A lot of factors for CT. Malloy beat Foley last election by only a few thousand votes.

I think he is actually toast because the third candidate, Visconti, is polling 7% based on his opposition to the gun law after Sandy hook. If those voters switch to Foley, it's over.

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. Good for Maine, but MA?

Oy...........I hope that's wrong.

[4bucksagallon]

6. Are you kidding it's great news for Maine if it holds up......n/t

[IDemo]

5. Wisconsin, bleh

How could they?

[HereSince1628]

8. Dems are lower shows for midterms than R"S

If that gets stood on it's head, so will the outcome.

The polls show it within the margin of error. Which means hacking the black-boxes to gain a few percent is all too possible in western WI

[BlueStater]

7. 76% in Wisconsin? That much?!

What in the name of fuck is wrong with that state?

The stupid just burns.

[Greybnk48]

9. I don't believe it.

I may be sheltered, but I don't believe it.

[HereSince1628]

10. The polling is essentially tied...the 76% is Silvers assigned probability of a win

[magical thyme]

11. please, big Dog in the Sky, please,please,please make LeRage go away

please

Both Nate and Princeton give Michaud the edge....please let them be right again. Please.

[gollygee]

13. NooOOOoooOOOoooOOOooo

Please let him be wrong! I can't bear it. Snyder must go!!