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Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:14 PM

 

believe the polls? Don't!!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

16 replies, 2157 views

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:24 PM

1. I think I have poll overload.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:30 PM

2. Understandable.......

 

I was surprised when I looked at the 2012 final polls.....

I suspect that the current polls undercount Democratic support even more.

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:32 PM

3. Good observations. Obama honestly wasn't likely to lose, anyway, but.....

 

He clearly outperformed the polls.....by almost 4 whole percent, it seems. And if we can get results that good in a "main" election year, then it stands to reason that we may have some surprisingly positive results this year, too, especially if early voting numbers are anything to go by.

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:42 PM

7. as stressful as polls and media reports are to me when they favor repubs....

 

When the underlying turnout assumptions are wrong, you can see huge surprises.

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:34 PM

4. Almost all are within MOE (margin of error)

So, if the pollsters are wrong, they can always invent an excuse. By keeping the races within the margin of error, they can maintain their credibility, however it may turn out. If they are lucky, they will get more right than wrong. Otherwise, they are not telling us a whole lot that we don't already know. Don't bet on any of their picks.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:36 PM

5. if they skew most to the right or MOE there goes the race; in their opinion

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Response to kentuck (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:47 PM

8. I wish that I could bet on the races, in Vegas

 

I could bet Republican, and if Democrats didn't win, I could at least console myself with the cash.

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Response to virtualobserver (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:08 PM

11. You can in the UK

They bet on everything, even on how many people are betting.

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:40 PM

6. I do hope the polls all prove to be totally wrong not only so Dems win and Repubs lose,

But it would be so satisfying just to see the talking heads on TV eat crow (among other things)

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Response to world wide wally (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:51 PM

9. yes, if it is a Democratic wave.....I'm watching Fox News on Tuesday night.

 

I loved watching Fox announce Obama winning the Presidency

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:00 PM

10. Context in the South should include Ferguson.

Nothing like a civil rights historic event to bring people out of apathy.

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Response to mahina (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:20 PM

12. apathy at this moment in time would be hard to understand

 

hopefully the racists are complacent.

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:40 PM

13. No, but believe the expert analysts.

Silver, Wang et all are mostly giving the Republicans about 2-1 to take the Senate - likely, but not certain.

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Response to Donald Ian Rankin (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 08:25 PM

15. they may be correct, but they are basing their beliefs on the poll results

 

if the pollsters get the percentages wrong by misreading the effectiveness of the ground game on either side, the result could be surprising. mid-terms are harder to predict.

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 08:25 PM

14. The thing about polls for Obama/Romney and now

Is that most people - well, Fox - saying that Romney was going to win is that they were looking at national polls. I remember the only pundit on Fox to bring up a poll that said Obama was going to win was Dennis Miller to Bill O'Reilly, and he said that he didn't believe it. National polls don't really mean much when it comes to the president - it's the state polls, and how many different routes to the magic number of electoral votes each candidate had. Obama had the advantage in both, and I think a lot of us here knew it as we were looking at those polls, and we're into these kinds of details. Corporate media can't - or won't - work that way because it involves more work, and once again, in the case of Fox, supplying their viewers with more information than their pea-brains can handle.

But now we're looking at state and even district polls. I'm still hopeful that they're skewed or wrong in some way - it seems to me that the media are going to push the whole republicans always do well in off-year elections meme come hell or high water, but from some of the things about early voter turn out seems to be playing well for us, and as happened in 2012, I think a lot of voters came out specifically because the GOP was trying to take their votes away, and I hope that happens again.

TlalocW

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Response to virtualobserver (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 08:27 PM

16. I tend to believe Nate Silver. nt

 

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