Ok... Let's Try It This Way... Do YOU Think The Democrats Will Keep The Senate ???

[WillyT]

Please bookmark.



(And believe me.... I want to be wrong.)

35 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Yes... The Democrats Keep The Senate.
	12 (34%)
	No... The Democrats Lose The Senate.
	21 (60%)
	Well... It's A Tie... And Joe Biden Will Be Very Busy...
	2 (6%)
	There is no obligatory other.
	0 (0%)
	2 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. No freaking idea.

Simply too many races in the margin of error. At best, I barely expect to hang on to it, and only then if indeed all of the indies keep caucusing with the dems. I'm more pessimistic overall, because I think repubs have been skewing the polls by telling pollsters they won't vote for their guys to show how ticked they are, but I think when it comes down to the wire, they 'come home' and hold their noses and vote just like dems do.

I will take time to dance a happy dance if Grimes does manage to unseat McTurtle, though.

[3catwoman3]

2. Would you be...

...doing a poll dance?

[maced666]

3. Think we will hold by two seats.

Not a stretch, a lot can happen in the last week.

[HERVEPA]

4. No way.

Unfortunately, I think you "Yes" folks are delusional.
Only thing I'm happy about is that we will get rid of our crappy governor in PA.
(And maybe Walker in Wisconsin, though I'm even doubting that)

[customerserviceguy]

5. I agree

in the Republicon waves of 1980 and 1994, nobody saw them coming. The fact that the blame game is already going on tells me what I can expect on Tuesday.

Any time anybody says that "X" party is dead, they're wrong.

[dsc]

8. actually we saw 1994 coming

maybe not every single loss but only the exceptionally delusional didn't see us losing both Houses in 94. Here I don't see a wave but I still think the Senate is likely to be lost. I think we will lose seats in MT, WV, SD, Arkansas, IA, and LA with no sure pick ups. If we get KS and don't lose Alaska then we could hold. But I don't see that happening.

[upaloopa]

31. I don't think anyone knew about 1994. The thing

that lost it was low Dem turnout. That was not predicted. I remember 1994 well in CA because I had wing nut friends and none of us predicted what happened.

[dsc]

34. by early October the stories of us being in trouble started

and were quite prevalent by mid October. Again, the extent of the losses were a surprise as were some of the particular people, but we knew it was going to be a bad year. Heck even Kennedy was considered in trouble for awhile that year.

[Reter]

46. 1994 was very predicted, it was all over talk radio as an upcoming Republican blowout

In fact, it could have been worse. Jeb Bush and Oliver North were all polling ahead.

[oldandhappy]

6. Can I vote on Wednesday??!!

[Xipe Totec]

7. Doesn't really matter, so long as there's no supermajority

If the Democrats hold the majority, the repugnicans will filibuster.

If the repugnicans hold the majority, the Democrats will filibuster.

Either way, nothing gets passed for the President to sign.

[Prophet 451]

13. Democrats won't filibuster

Congressional Democrats don't have the spine to go full-bore obstructionism like the Republicans do. They'll agree to pass "bipartisan" (i.e. right-wing) legislation.

[branford]

18. Will you say it doesn't matter if there is a Supreme Court retirement? nt

[Xipe Totec]

20. Yes, and for the same reason

And yes, I've heard about the nuclear option.

But so far it hasn't happened.

[branford]

25. I think you're confused.

If there is a SC retirement, the Senate must confirm a replacement. If the Republicans control the Senate, Obama will have to compromise with them to confirm any justice (or anyone elso) or the position will remain unfilled. There would be nothing the Senate Democrats could do to force confirmation of any nominee. Conversely, if the Democrats retain control, particularly with the "nuclear option," we still control the entire executive and jurdicial confirmation process.

The most likely SC retirement would be Ginsburg, one of the most liberal of justices. Do you think a Republican Senate would ever agree to confirm someone who was even a fraction as liberal as she.

I would also not that a Republican Senate would also have the power to investigate the White House. Reid ran cover for the WH on numerous occasions, but would be powerless if we lost the majority.

Lastly, Reid has prevented Democrats from having to vote on controversial legislation, as well as prevented politically uncomfortable legislation from reaching the president and forcing a polarizing veto. A Congress fully controlled by the Republicans could send numerous pieces of legislation to the president (or sometimes force a Democratic filibuster in the Senate). If we're the party stopping legislation, you can totally forget running against the Republicans as the "Party of No" come the 2016 election.

Simply, losing the Senate will be very, very bad.

[Xipe Totec]

26. You're right, you're right, you're always right. We should do something about it. Like vote. nt

[branford]

28. I'm voting, but since I'm in NYC, I'll sadly have little effect in the close Senate races.

The GOTV efforts in NC, IA, GA, KS and even AK, are really going to make all the difference.

[pstokely]

42. Will there be an SC retirement if Dems hold the senate?

or will that happen after 2016?

[branford]

43. Who knows, but health concerns could trump the best laid plans.

My basic point also concerns all federal judicial and executive branch nominations.

[earthside]

29. Why wouldn't Republicans change the rule?

If I were the Senate Republicans, I would eliminate or change the filibuster rule so that legislation can pass with a simple majority.

Of course, if the Democrats hold the majority, I would favor the same rule change.

[brooklynite]

9. The obligatory other is "Nobody has a clue"

[AnalystInParadise]

10. Guts says we lose it

49-51 is what I am hoping for, 47-53 is what I am fearing.

Our margin for error is remarkably small. Current representation is 55-45 Dems/Repukes

South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana are gone. -3
Arkansas is looking like it is gone also -1
Colorado or Iowa is likely lost, I think we hold one of the two, but not both. -1

That puts us at 50/50

Kentucky is not going to flip.

Louisiana and Georgia are both looking like runoffs and I think our chances are great of splitting them. Keeping Georgia and losing Louisiana so I call that a wash

North Carolina, I think we will keep, same for New Hampshire

Alaska is I think the inflection point, I think we lose it and thus we arrive at 51-49 Repukes.

Our best hope is 50/50 and that involves Senator Landrieu AND Michelle Nunn BOTH winning their runoffs.

If for some reason Deal wins Georgia with no runoff needed, we are screwed.


EDIT: Forgot Kansas, That state is anyone's guess, but I will be amazed and pleasantly happy if Blood-Red Kansas elects someone other than Roberts.

So maybe 50/50 is what my gut says.

[madville]

11. Sounds pretty spot on to me

Louisiana and Arkansas are likely gone, GA, IA, CO, KS and AK are the tossups to decide it.

[Blue_In_AK]

23. I'm here,

and I don't think we're losing Alaska. Mark has too good of a ground game, and nobody trusts Sullivan since he's an Outsider and has been working for the very unpopular Sean Parnell during his stay here.

National prognosticators are not taking into consideration Alaska's THREE liberal ballot-bait issues that will draw out people who ordinarily don't vote - Measure 2 to legalize marijuana, Measure 3 to raise the minimum wage, and Measure 4 to protect the Bristol Bay watershed from big mining operations (I.e., Pebble Mine). Anchorage has an additional ballot measure to overturn an unpopular anti union ordinance that was rammed through our assembly last year.

Gov. Sean Parnell is extremely unpopular and will lose. Even though his opponent was formerly a Republican now running as an Independent, his running mate is an Alaska Native Democrat who will also attract Native voters, traditionally Democratic. The GOTV effort in the villages has been off the charts.

[Kilgore]

27. I think you nailed it

[bigwillq]

12. Don't know

Could go either way

[toddwv]

14. Lose seats, keep majority by a hair.

It could be optimism, or it could be a desire to watch right-wingers heads pop.

[roguevalley]

15. sometimes I get gut feelings, usually enormous churning and fear

when things are coming up. I don't feel a think about the elections. I don't know but if this follows the way I have felt about other important things, we should be okay.

[Blue_In_AK]

22. How's Begich doing down there, Rogue?

I was pleased to see that the Peninsula Clarion endorsed Forrest Dunbar among that sea of awful Republicans.

[roguevalley]

39. he's got a great ground game. I would help more but after twenty-five years of doing it as a

union officer and all around self abuser, I couldn't this time. I think he's got a lot of support. This could be interesting. The hardcore pugs that I know don't like Sullivan and are made at Parnell for the guard business.

[Blue_In_AK]

47. That's the way it feels up here, too.

I just feel like Mark is going to surprise everyone and win by a bigger margin than the pollsters are predicting. I hope I'm right.

[True Blue Door]

16. Depends on which question you're actually asking:

1. Are the American people going to vote for a Republican Senate majority?

or

2. Will a Republican Senate majority be declared?

The two questions are not the same. If 1 is "Yes," then 2 is inevitably "Yes" also. But 2 does not imply that 1 happened.

[Rex]

17. And gain the House!

Much to the chagrin of some here...

[BillZBubb]

37. That would be a political upset of epic proportions.

I don't think too many here would be unhappy with that outcome. Stunned, yes.

[PAProgressive28]

19. Yes and I'm a negative guy

[Blue_In_AK]

21. Anybody's guess.

I think we can count on Alaska. Just a hunch since polling here is worthless.

[randome]

24. .

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]

[upaloopa]

30. Yes they will. My guess is voter suppression

will backfire someplace and we hang on

[baldguy]

32. If Democrats get out and vote, Democrats will keep the Senate.

[etherealtruth]

33. I want my vote to be true (I will think positively)

[City Lights]

35. I really have no idea, but I voted "yes."

I'm hoping they hold it, so I voted optimistically.

[BillZBubb]

36. Didn't vote, but if forced to I'd lean towards no.

The ignorance of people in this country knows no bounds which makes them easy pickings for the right wing.

[Vogon_Glory]

38. I Don't Know. I'm Biting My Nails n/t

[Recursion]

40. If I were betting my sadly honest marker would go down for "no"

I'd like us to, and it's not impossible, but if we do I will be (pleasantly) surprised. We're defending seats won in a Presidential year on an off-year; that's always hard for us.

[BlindTiresias]

41. Well...

My gut feeling is that we lose it, and that this has cascading effects leading to a Republican resurgence and more extreme right wing drift in both parties like what we saw in the other Republican surges.

[maced666]

44. OUTSIDE of the MSM and poll hag wringing over polls, yes, think Democrats can.

Can, not will...voter turnout of course the key.
The more who vote, better the chances.

[Reter]

45. Why didn't you add the option "Democrats will expand their majority"?

I just want to see how delusional some people are. I estimate 10-15% would have picked that option.

[lonestarnot]

48. I'm not going to count them before they're counted.