Associated Press reporters saw more than 80 unmarked military vehicles (Ukraine)

[Duckhunter935]

SNIZHNE, Ukraine (AP) — Associated Press reporters saw more than 80 unmarked military vehicles on the move Saturday in rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, indicating that intensified hostilities may lie ahead.
Three separate columns were seen — one near the main separatist stronghold of Donetsk and two outside the town of Snizhne, 80 kilometers (50 miles) further east. The vehicles were mainly transportation trucks, some of them carrying small- and large-caliber artillery systems, and at least one armored personnel carrier. Several of the trucks were seen to be carrying troops.

You will notice they are all well maintained and newer models. Ukraine did not have modern equipment as they have not spent anything on the military for the last 10-15 years. Also notice all of the soldiers are in full military gear and not the rebel mismatched uniforms or civilian clothes. Seems to be more equipment being supplied by Russia that I suspect will be used to either take the Donetsk airport or the port of Mariupol.

[newthinking]

1. Once the "Party of War" won the elections in Ukraine that was likely the death nell on the shaky

"ceasefire".

"Party of War" is actually what yatsunek's party call *themselves*. Their platform DEMANDS war. Yatsunek' party is also a front for the fascists groups that have been stoking all this. Yatsunek's new party/coallation combined the nazi group "Patriots of Ukraine", the leaders in Right sector and roughly half of their members, the commanders of the privately funded neo-nazi batallians (Azov etc) amongst them.

I think that at this point Putin/Russia know that regardless of what level of support they offer the East, it will be painted as direct military support, and since the party of war is now in charge I will not be at all surprised if they are not now truly ready to openly go in and stop any new mass assault.

[joshcryer]

2. They are simply slowly militarizing Donbas.

It's just a slow military buildup until Donbas is like South Ossetia. It's a long term plan. Ukraine will likely resist it to whatever means it can, but it won't be able to stop a slow militarization and imperial occupation.

[newthinking]

5. Please just try to be neutral. Essentially the shaky "ceasefire" failed. This is just what happens.

Wars/ civil wars, are mess and difficult to contain.

Sure the ceasefire was not an optimum solution in Kiev's view. But when the shelling continued to hit the city and civilians they were essentially killing the chances of getting things de-escallated and reducing the chances of reunification.

Yes, the rebels apparently wanted the Kiev army out of the Donesk airport. But really that is essentially part of Donesk and it was provocative to remain there, especially when the ceasefire called for Kiev to move it's weaponry out of gunning range.

Of course Kiev would have been taking a chance if they pulled back, but that was the right thing to do. If they had done so they then had a clear claim that the opposition purposely broke the ceasefire and a much more compelling case. But of course they did not.

From the very start this was all Kiev's to lose. They would not compromise from the beginning, when it was clear that the east would have likely truly settled for enough autonomy to protect their citizens from the threat they percieved in return staying in Ukraine: And over time the situation would have worked itself out. But people in power in Kiev wanted to demonstrate their authority even if it meant killing their own citizens.

[joshcryer]

6. The Donesk airport isn't going anywhere.

Ukraine would be foolish to pull out of there given how Putin airdropped so much military support to Crimea. In fact, I would wager that most of the support from the US (CIA) is focused on keeping that airport. That's why 200 rebels were killed trying to take it yesterday. The airport is vital to keep Donbas from being overrun like Crimea with daily airdrops and thousands of military.

[newthinking]

8. The airport is completely unuseful. It is not strategic, it is *symbolic*. Strategically they should

let it go, because in terms of symbolism, it is more important as a "grudge" than it is anything else.

Holding it is a provoking, but worse is by holding places them in the position where they end up shelling the city. Which is definitely not strategic, but a guarantee that they will push any real solution farther away.

[joshcryer]

9. It is absolutely strategic.

The runways are in disrepair but they can be repaired relatively quickly.

They're trying to do the Tiraspol-playbook. Take the airport, use it as a staging ground for a Transdniester-style breakaway controlled by Russia. There is historical precedent for this. It happened in Moldova.

[Duckhunter935]

11. Yes it is

That is why they are moving so much equipment to take it. They will also go for the main power complex in the north and the port in the south eventually. Nothing like firing heavy artillery from a city and then complaining when the return fire hits the city.

By the way it looks like another heavy attack on the airport is on again with artillery and tank fire going on. Quite a coincidence that this type of equipment was seen moving in that direction through the city today.

[newthinking]

15. I had read that it would be very difficult and time consuming to repair them

but even if so, if the east has control of at least 3 other airports It is hard to imagine it is strategic enough to for the risk.

Luhhansk
Yenakiyeve Airfield
Yenakiyeve, Donetsk, Ukraine (19 nm/36 km ENE)
Mospyne Airfield
Mospyne, Donetsk, Ukraine (20 nm/37 km SE)

[joshcryer]

17. Those are tiny.

And you failed to address how it would be very similar to how they took Transdniester. Take the biggest airport, then ship in supplies, checkmate.

[newthinking]

23. I won't address that because of primary point you are trying to make is not factual

You are implying that this is all an advance plan and that what happened in Transniestra was "Russian aggression". That is conspiracy theory.

Everything is being thrown at this. The propaganda is so fierce that the latest attempt at falsehood has been to make Russia look like it was on the side of the Axis. Some of it is Incredible dishonest and bigoted bullshit, and most all of it detracts from resolution.

[joshcryer]

29. No, it's historical fact.

The aggression stopped after the airport was taken, fact.

[Duckhunter935]

4. What cease fire

The pro- Russian side has been attempting to take the main power plant, the Donetsk airport and the port since they signed the cease fire agreement. They also broke the agreement by holding the elections not according to Ukrainian law per the signed cease fire agreement. When you give them new military equipment and soldiers, yes that is direct military support.

[joshcryer]

3. Mariupol is pro-Ukraine, it'd be a mistake to try to take it.

Not because Ukraine has better forces, or even enough to repel it, but because other countries would be more likely to respond and assist Ukraine.

[newthinking]

7. Rose colored glasses. We will disagree. They are anti-Kiev. They were predominant party of Regions

That is simply FACT.

But again this is all under the control of Ukraine. If they don't moderate, they risk it escalating. In war people get angry. And everything ends off the table.

I have said before and will again, ultimately, if some kind of peace does not happen, and if shelling of any form in the cities contiues, then it is simply the principles of battle that lead to an "all or nothing" mentality.

If you have not yet noticed, the Russian culture takes civilian casualties in areas under their control of more an offront than some countries do. It is just a fact that continuing to shell cities risks expansion of the war.

One has to ask themselves: Are those in control in Kiev just dense or stupid? Or are they basically caught up in hate: Because is losing control of the places that the city of Donesk needs for power and transport really that important? Or are they so caught up in a small military "win" that they are willing to risk the entire peace?

[joshcryer]

10. They are anti war.

They don't want their city to undergo an invasion and they're not about to kick out Ukraine forces by force. There exist no underground resistance there.

Ukraine doesn't "risk it escalating there." Only Russia can do that by trying to take the city which wants no part of this war. If you think Ukraine defending itself from Russia is an "escalation" then that's quite deluded.

[KingCharlemagne]

12. Russian Federation Foreign Minister Lavrov offered a way out last March or April with

his proposal for 'federalism' of Ukraine (with stronger regional governments and a weaker central government). Keeping in mind that almost every armed conflict ends in some sort of negotiated settlement, why can't the parties skip the 'armed struggle' bit and move straight to the 'negotiated settlement' part? Does Kiev think it is going to triumph militarily? If so, what is Kiev's strategy to achieve victory in Donbass?

[joshcryer]

13. Federalism kills the EU agreement.

Ukraine is rightly trying to move away from reliance on Russia. But it's in quite a bind as it has nothing and no one wants WWIII.

[KingCharlemagne]

14. Kiev has no strategy nor any means to compel NAF to surrender or even to

negotiate. All Kiev can hope for plausibly is to somehow draw the Russian Federation into the fray on the side of NAF so that Kiev can then appeal to the EU and NATO to haul its nuts out of the fire. Can you really see Merkel, Hollande or Cameron sending precious bodies to back the Kiev regime? Is why I say it's time to move over the armed conflict portion and proceed directly to the inevitable 'negotiated settlement' part.

[joshcryer]

16. The scale of the war is overblown.

A hot day in any Latin American or many Arab states is pretty much 10x more deadly. It's basically two armed groups picking at each other here and there. So Kiev is letting it play out. EU is familiar with these types of long conflicts. The Baltic states know all too well. Let it go on a decade as far as they're concerned.

But, you have to understand, there's no real negotiation that can happen here. Both sides are basically belligerents. There is a good article in Ukrainian free media that talks about the volunteer fighters: http://bilozerska.livejournal.com/867134.html

Kiev has been getting heat from the battalions that are "under their control" because every single time there's a ceasefire, the pro-Russians break it, and it hurts the Ukrainian army. So they're increasingly unlikely to even accept a ceasefire in the future. The only way Kiev is going to reign them in in the future is by cutting them off completely, and that wouldn't end well. So Kiev has to keep up this illusion of supporting the resistance against the invaders while hoping it settles down (the likely outcome being Russia's full occupation in a couple of years).

[newthinking]

20. There are too many interests getting in the way of peace

The situation is indeed very complex. It really requires a neutral peacekeeping force. But oddly the US and the EU have been avoiding that despite Russia calling for it several times.

[newthinking]

21. "Ukrainian Free Media"? LOL -

Seriously?

There is no "free" media in Ukraine. It is entirely locked up by both soft and hard (violence or jailed for life) methods.

[joshcryer]

22. Free media = social media.

You ought to check it out sometime. RT and pro-Russian sites are not good for on the ground info. The rebels are largely quiet ever since Streklov's fuckups.

[newthinking]

24. Web traffic is heavily monitored in Ukraine by the government

Really in terms of internet posting anyone is only as free as they are allowed to post without someone knocking at the door or otherwise affecting you or your family. In Ukraine they are knocking the doors of those who post what they do not like at this time.

And as long as organized fascist thugs are freely allowed the liberty to roam and threaten the population there is no web freedom. Even if the government itself does not persecute these groups are doing so, and in a country like Ukraine where it was already possible to bribe your way where want there is nothing keeping those groups from threatening ISPs if they don't allow "a little extrajudicial access".

There have been people posting internet videos in Ukraine who received threats and then those videos removed and they stopped posting. Hopefully those people are still alive.

Interestingly, this *did not* happen under previous administrations. Prominent people could and at times were targeted, but not the average joe (or should we say average Dmitry).

[joshcryer]

27. Ukraine doesn't have Russia's "blogger reporting law."

In fact, the only sites I've followed taken down were anti-Russia/Putin blogs on LJ. Because Russia deems it. If you don't believe me, simply go here: http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/12/30/russia-livejournal-shuts-down-putins-critic/

Any site that violates Russia's blogging law requiring reporting of postings will be shut down.

Live Journal is the go-to site for Russian / Russian speaking Ukrainian bloggers. If you want an actual, real, insight into what's going on there, you will avoid the mainstream media.

[KingCharlemagne]

25. Thanks for the link. I will take a look tomorrow. In the meantime, wanted to

recommend to you this multi-lingual site for some pretty balanced and clear-eyed analysis of the situation on the ground. The author's sympathies rest with NAF and with Russia, but he has a clear view of NAF's proclivity to over-reach also (by going for Odessa, for example):

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/

I've been so preoccupied with events in Ferguson and St. Louis County recently that I've not been paying as much attention as i probably should to developments in Ukraine. Your post(s) have prodded me to spend a little more time there again.

[SidDithers]

26. You're "new" here, so you may not be aware that vineyardsaker is an holocaust-denying hate site...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12596602

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=881719

Sid

[joshcryer]

28. Thanks for pointing that out.

Shame that the link is not banned on sight (not necessarily innocent or ignorant posters, but the link itself).

[newthinking]

18. I agree with this. While the narrative was powerful in the beginning

policymakers and the public are much more aware that of the complexity and the information war that is occurring.

It is one thing to turn a blind eye to the demonization of Russia that is occurring, and that continues. But if this escalates support is likely to flag even further.

What is unknown at this point is how many of the players think that war will achieve whatever (ie the real) objectives here. And how much control that Kiev has over it's army. The situation in Kiev and "Ukraine proper" itself is explosive and could ignite at any time.

[KoKo]

19. Nato's site doesn't mention this...

Wouldn't they have information about this?