Obama BOXES IN GOP On Immigration: 'Only One Thing' Will Stop EXECUTIVE ORDER

[Segami]

That one thing they will never do.

After the last six years of weasel words, I think we can tell when Republicans are playing Lucy with the football. Kevin McCarthy's nonsense about how Congress and President Obama should agree to a "fresh start" is just another version of that. Despite David Axelrod's timidity in suggesting the President should simply "shelve" his plans for an executive order, the White House is ready to proceed. If they hadn't listened to the scaredy-cats, this would already be done.

Washington Post, quoting Josh Earnest:

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Friday that Obama “is very focused on” immigration and that Republicans can do only one thing to stop him.

“They can allow that common-sense, bipartisan bill from the Senate to come to the floor of the House of Representatives,” he said. “And if the House passes that Senate bill, the president won’t take executive action. Maybe the republic will be saved. Maybe the ego of the House Republicans will not be bruised. Certainly, the United States of America would benefit significantly from them taking that step.”


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-obama-will-act-on-immigration-despite-gop-warnings-to-hold-off/2014/11/07/5b93c332-66a1-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.html

Expect that executive order in the coming days after President Obama's trip overseas. Let's be honest. Boehner is never going to bring that bill up for a vote. Dave Neiwert called it over a year ago, when he said there would be no way to get the nativist Tea Party faction to give even an inch. All the talk about starting over is just that: Talk. Now the only question is whether the White House will go big, which I hope they do. That will leave the ball in Congress' court to actually get something done that works. Good luck with that, given the new Republican majority.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/11/obama-boxes-gop-immigration-only-one-thing

[BP2]

1. Based upon his cave on the Keystone pipeline, I'm not holding my breath for him to go big

But here's hoping

[Segami]

3. Well..

...we have a marker to call Obama out on.

Don't play Texas Holdem' if you aren't prepared to go all in.

[Jackpine Radical]

10. That wasn't a cave.

Going where you wanted to in the first place is not a cave.

[Jim Beard]

12. I am ready for the Keystone pipeline.

Let the oil companies create a glut and drive the prices down even more. It will devastate the the republican voting "oil states".

[defacto7]

15. It doesn't work that way.

That pipeline is not representative of a glut. We will see none of it. It is all to be shipped out and away from the US. No jobs except to make the pipeline itself then nothing. No fuel in the states, only elsewhere. The whole concept from start to finish is short term profit for a small set of investors.... then nothing.... nothing but environmental disaster. Everyone gets hurt economically, ecologically, politically... except for a wealthy few.

[applegrove]

2. Oh SNAP! Now the President can obstruct them.

(because if you can't laugh, you have to cry)

[yeoman6987]

4. I hope the President has the money to do this

House will never give the money so it is all symbolic.

[Historic NY]

5. Dreamers waiting for the GOP better keep dreaming...

the place the GOP will send them is home.

[azmom]

38. They may change their tune in order

To get the Latino vote in 2016.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. Whoa boys and girls,

Obama needs to make amends to the Labor and ethnic communities. These two are the reasons we got our asses handed to us. Tons of Union folks were short shifted by the lack of support from Mr. Obama. Notice not much in the form of Phone Banking or Door to Door boots on the ground game,we see the results. As many as thirty thousand plus SEIU folks here in Clark County said screw this and shut it down. The other biggee was the Immigration Bill,lots of disruption to families and of course mighty pissed off people. It's put up or shut up time with many in the Labor Movement.

[Doctor_J]

8. interesting he chooses to make a phony stand AFTER the election

Almost like he wanted the party to lose

[ballyhoo]

23. Yep. We will know much more about that in the first

quarter of 2015. My bet is that we will be a very unhappy group of people.

[True Blue Door]

30. Cut the degenerate ODS bullshit.

I don't know what planet you were getting your election coverage from, but the folks who ran away from this President got their asses handed to them.

[Andy823]

40. Can't please some people

There is a group here who hate the president, and no matter what he does they will bash him every chance they get. The don't live in the real world, they live in their own little world where the president can do nothing to please them, and everything to displease them.

From what I am seeing we are getting more and more new posters who are the same way, anti Obama no matter what.

[Fred Sanders]

9. You were supposed to KEEP supporting the President first, then he supports you. He made that clear.

Did the union movement hold up their end of the bargain? Did they stay engaged in the political process enough? Did they even try to shut down Wisconsin when Walker fucked the movement over or did they capitulate when that decision had to be made?

[badtoworse]

7. From what I've seen, amnesty is hugely unpopular

Going it alone with executive action is taking a big risk. As I see it, what the public wants first and foremost are secure borders. Executive action without secure borders could lead to another border crisis leading up to an election year. That would be bad.

[Jim Beard]

11. Its un popular with white people

but if he jumps out in front, the republicans will be in a trap. Look for impeachment because they either have to accept the executive orders or lose the Latino for a very long time. The Democrats are losing the white male vote. I am one of the few white males that still votes Democrat.

[badtoworse]

13. There is not going to be an impeachment.

For better of for worse, Obama is going to be out on a limb by himself with executive action. My bet is that such a move would trigger another tidal wave of illegal immigration that INS would be unable to manage. Some, maybe even a majority, in the Hispannic community would like that, but I think the overwhelming majority of voters would be highly pissed off about it. In a scenario like that, the Republicans will let Obama sleep in the bed he made.

ETA: What makes this scenario particularly troubling is it sets up securing the border as a winning issue for the Republicans in 2016. When the Republicans excoriate Obama over the new flood of illegals, what will Democrats say?

[ballyhoo]

22. Yours seems like he most likely answer. The only thing I would add is

that many Latinoes themselves will be furious with blanket amnesty for illegals.

[azmom]

36. No one believes he is giving us blanket amnesty.

[ballyhoo]

39. Oh, I disagree...A large number of

people think that is what he is doing. True, many of these have an agenda. Still, their perceptions can create ideation.

[azmom]

41. You said latinos believe that and we don't.

Latinos want meaningful reform which would include a pathway to citizenship. Full amnesty was never promised by Obama and it's not what we are expecting.

[ballyhoo]

42. No, I did not. I suggest you reread the posts. Here:

[font color=blue]First Post:"Yours seems like the most likely answer. The only thing I would add is

that many Latinoes themselves will be furious with blanket amnesty for illegals."

Second Post: "...A large number of people think that is what he is doing..."[/font]

Additionally, I speak to a large number of Latinoes daily, and I used to have a rental property in Kachina Village, right outside of Flagstaff. Both here in California and there around Flagstaff many of the Latinoes were terrified of large groups of illegal aliens being given amnesty for fear of how it will affect their own jobs. If a group of people are working in a restaurant at one rate of pay and suddenly another group of people comes in willing to work at a lower to much lower rate of pay, the second group will get the jobs. Until new laws are passed, that's the way it works in this country now.

The Latino across the street from me is a US Citizen who is the Assistant Manager for a company that makes milk. He says if amnesty is granted by Obama, new people will take over many of the jobs now held by his current workers, many of whom are Latino. So the displace workers no longer vote for Democrats, but the replacement workers do. That's a zero sum game.

Thank you for your time.

[azmom]

44. The undocumented workers that will be given amnesty

Are already here and working, some for many years. They will not be displacing anybody.
And it's not a zero gain for democrats. iIf reform includes a pathway to citizenship, that means millions will be able to vote when they get their citizenship, and they will remember which party made it possible.

[ballyhoo]

46. Those same undocumented workers who are given amnesty

will absolutely replace other documented and Latin American citizens once those undocumented workers get documented and covered under the system. They will no longer be shadow people moving outside the system, but will be within the system being paid above the table. Once their wages are known by the sytem they will be sought out by those who will replace documented workers and take the difference in pay as revenue. This will affect California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico greatly.

I understand the system well; I'm an accountant who has done payroll for warehouses with both documented and undocumented workers. It was bad enough when I was there; I imagine it's even worse now. So you encourage the pathway to citizenship because it will increase the voting for a particular party? Immigration is supposed to be a system separate from voting--not intertwined one dependent on the other.

[azmom]

47. In order to qualify for amnesty, you

Have to meet a minimum residency requirement, right now, it looks like ten years. These are not people that are going to be leaving jobs because of their legal status change. You know what changes when an undocumented worker gets their green card. They take vacation time to see their relatives in their home countries, relatives that they haven't seen in years. That's what happens.

I support a path to citizenship because if you are paying taxes, which we are, documented or not, you should have a right to vote. The fact that the Democratic Party gains members is just icing on the cake.

[ballyhoo]

50. Non-deportation is amnesty without the bells and whistles, but

it still makes these folks eligible for hire and subject to US employment rules, including documentation of pay. "...icing on the cake..." ah, I see... Okay, conversation closed. I understand....

[azmom]

54. We want more than that

Obama won the Latino vote because he Promised us immigration reform. It's time he delivers on his promise.

[ballyhoo]

55. Well, you should know next week. I don't think he will do it. Why would someone

that just got beat-up by the voters for whatever reason take a chance on getting beat-up again? This is no longer 12th Dimensional chess. Simple chess: he has no good move that does not make him fall over. More or less a stalemate.

[azmom]

58. You do not seem to know

What an important voting block we are. Latinos were pissed when he postponed it until after the election. The Democratic Party will lose big if he does't act now.

[ballyhoo]

59. I live in Southern California. I know what is going on

there. The Democratic Party has to make a lot of changes to remain viable. I am against the EO, but I understand others who might want it particularly with the wonderful babies being made and all. Maybe a deal will be made but for less people with more benefits. Or maybe the same number of people but completion of the border fence. I think you will know next week. Later.

[JEB]

63. That is exactly correct. eom

[azmom]

45. You are wrong!

Latinos don't like illegal immigration. That is why we support comprehensive immigration reform. I

[rtracey]

14. impeachment

If the congress impeaches the president because of immigration, the GOP will lose the latino vote completely

[aggiesal]

25. The GOP will lose the latinos from ...

south of the border because those latinos
from north of the border get elected to the senate!

[rtracey]

31. really.....

[azmom]

34. Only in red states

[ballyhoo]

49. I thought the same as you, but I no longer think so. It will depend on

which Latinoes got shafted because of Obama's actions, and which were rewarded. The difference between these two catagories plus or minus his actions affecting non-Latinoes that caused them a reward or a shaft will form marginal differences than that which existed prior to Obama's actions. True, it will probably be positive for Democrats, but not to the degree many think.

[badtoworse]

28. I would think it's even less popular with Black people.

There are some good reasons for Blacks to oppose, but I can't think of any reasons why they would support it.

[azmom]

35. Latinos have made peace with our

Black brothers and sisters. Stop spreading nonsense.

[ballyhoo]

51. It is very unpopular with them. At a 10.7 unemployement per cent they are

hurting badly and not real happy about anything right now. That situation may get dangerous if encroachments are made.

[azmom]

56. Not true. Latinos and

Blacks are marrying each other and making beautiful babies.

[ballyhoo]

57. Ah, the beautiful baby card...OK. I give up.

[aggiesal]

24. There is no border crisis ...

Obama tripled the number of border agents and current
immigration numbers are neutral. Meaning just as many
people are leaving as are coming in.

When we had the "border crisis" earlier this year with all
the teenagers, they were not trying to sneak over the border
and got caught, they were turning themselves over to border
patrol agents.

The GOP framed the story as a crisis, an some on the left and
even on DU bought into their meme.

[azmom]

37. Secure borders will never happen.

Because employers are addicted to cheap labor. Fix that addiction, then you wouldn't even need a border because no one would come over.

[Bandit]

67. Except the borders have NEVER in the History of the USA been more secure.

More deportations have happened under Obama than any other President, by a mile.. All those talking points are completely bogus, but it certainly works to get the rabble roused.

[badtoworse]

69. I seem to recall illegal immigrants crossing the Rio Grande on jet skis last summer.

That doesn't seem all that secure to me.

[Segami]

16. ReTHUGS are fighting Obama on one front..

...while warding off the Ted Cruz 'stop-Obama-at-any-cost' mumblers of the party on another front. Turtle has his shell filled.


if reTHUGS can't stop Obama (legally), they will forever be tagged & preserved like pickles as the Anti-Immigrant Party......not good for 2016.

One quasi-challenge does stand out. Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, once represented a group of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in a suit against the program, but the case was ultimately dismissed on procedural grounds. It was never appealed.

Kobach’s lawsuit—like his work behind Arizona’s SB 1070 and other immigration laws across the United States—was especially engineered to bring down DACA on constitutional and federal law grounds, under the guise that the program somehow forced law-abiding immigration officers to violate their oath to uphold the laws of the United States.

A venerable argument, but it went nowhere in court.

This may explain why Boehner never bothered to sue Obama over DACA. Like his beleaguered lawsuit challenging the Obama administration over the implementation of the Affordable Care Act—which he hasn’t even filed—a separate DACA lawsuit probably would’ve failed big time in court.

It would’ve failed because courts do not like to entertain political questions. Political questions are those involving the elected branches—Congress and the president. And DACA, a program involving Obama’s broad discretion in enforcing immigration laws, has everything to do with Obama’s powers as the nation’s top executive. But DACA is also related to Congress’ powers to pass immigration laws.

So who’s right and who’s wrong? That’s a dispute a federal judge would likely never settle, because a judge’s only task is to say what the law is—not to referee a power dispute between co-equal branches of government. That’s how separation of powers works.

And that’s precisely why Obama’s plan to use executive action on immigration—within the parameters of existing immigration law—poses no constitutional problems. So long as he acts in a manner consistent with his prosecutorial discretion to enforce or not enforce the laws, the courts won’t get involved.

http://fusion.net/story/26225/analysis-executive-action-on-immigration-is-perfectly-legal/

“If he doesn’t move soon, his legacy is going to be one that is antithetical to human rights,” Matos said. “That moniker of ‘deporter-in-chief’ will forever be stuck on him.”

[Savannahmann]

17. One question.

You do realize that only 20% of the people support executive action right? I mention that because if the President does act, then 80% of the people will oppose him, and the Democratic Party.

[Segami]

21. Would you provide a link to those numbers?nt

[Savannahmann]

27. The full report is here.

I'm mobile at the moment, but the numbers are here.

http://pollingcompany.com/poll-vault/new-post-election-survey-findings-on-immigration/attachment/2014-post-election-immigration-analysis-final-11-6-2014-6/

I highlighted them in a post yesterday morning.

[Segami]

32. Those polling results

were produced by a Kellyanne Elizabeth Conway who is a Republican strategist and pollster. She is president and CEO of the polling company, inc./WomanTrend.

Conway entered the polling business with Wirthlin Group, a GOP polling firm which worked for Ronald Reagan. She also worked for a period for Luntz Research Research Companies before founding her own firm, The Polling Company, in 1995.[2] Among the political figures Conway has worked for are the late Congressman Jack Kemp; former Vice President Dan Quayle; Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich; Senator Fred Thompson and Congressman (now Indiana Governor) Mike Pence.[1] She worked as the senior advisor to Newt Gingrich during his 2012 United States presidential election campaign.[3]


Do you have other polls other than a reTHUG Polling Company?

[ConnorMarc]

70. So True

Kellyanne Conyway is as RW & partisan as you can get.

Good catch.

[Doctor_J]

18. six years of 12 d chess have been a huge winner for the president and the party

[blkmusclmachine]

20. Which Party is that, again???

[blkmusclmachine]

19. Meh.

[w4rma]

26. I really don't see how this helps Democrats or Obama politically.

This, however is a good plan, but with this executive order threat he's muddling his message:
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/watch/obama-calls-gop-bluff-on-ebola-isis-353595971974

[ballyhoo]

43. It doesn't-- Good you've thought it through.

[Cha]

29. Not only is Boner not going to bring It up.. but, he's warned the President he could get "burned"

.. so don't even think about Immigration Reform.

[azmom]

33. Latinos are tired of waiting.

Obama told us to wait until after the election, and we did. There is no way, we will wait any longer.
latinos are ready to send a message to politicians that we cannot be taken for granted.

[kentuck]

48. The President should use this issue to befuddle Republicans...

and keep them on the defensive, Most likely, they would prefer he signed and EO so they would not have to take a stand and they can continue to blame him for 'poisoning the well". Maybe he should keep it over their heads for two or three months just to disrupt their strategy and create division within their caucus. He can always sign an EO at any time but it is better to have it in legislation.

[savalez]

52. But according to CNN

"nobody wants an immigration bill to pass more than John Boner."

[vi5]

53. It's a good thing he didn't do this before the election.

We might have lost a bunch of seats in the Senate if he did.

Good thing he didn't do anything to mobilize that Latino voting base.

As always, it's good that he played it safe. Really benefited everyone all around.

[w4rma]

60. I'm dubious that amnesty mobilizes Latinos.

Pew Poll: Fewer Than Half Of Latinos Support Amnesty…
http://weaselzippers.us/138918-pew-poll-fewer-than-half-of-latinos-support-amnesty/

[vi5]

64. Something though....didn't have to be amnesty.

And even if half the Latino feels strongly about it, that's still a sizable amount of additional voters at the polls.

Not every issue mobilizes everyone in that group.

Like all issues and subsets of the Democratic party, the people in charge can't just go "Well unless this motivates ALL of the people in that group, why bother".

[JEB]

61. Don't know about the politics of this

but improving our immigration policy is the right thing to do. Doing the right thing usually plays well with voters.

[flamingdem]

62. Rec

[azmom]

65. Latinos largely support reform

http://www.laopinion.com/noticias-obama-promete-actuar-inmigracion-reforma-migratoria
http://www.laopinion.com/democratas-pierden-apoyo-latinos-encuesta-nacional

[azmom]

66. "Latinos demand action not words"

http://www.lavozarizona.com/story/noticias/2014/11/07/reforma-migratoria-obama-congreso/18646629/

[azmom]

68. From the Las Vegas, Nevada " El Sol"

We’re seeing record high levels of frustration with both parties from Latinos, and we know a lot of that has to do with the lack of progress on immigration,” Latino Decision co-founder Matt Barreto said on a press call discussing the results. “For Latinos, this issue is even more important than it is to the general electorate—a clear majority of Latinos know an undocumented immigrant. For them, immigration is deeply personal and symbolic. Both parties stand to lose serious support if they continue to take the Latino vote for granted. There’s clear signals of that happening in 2014 and even stronger signals for that in 2016.”