What are the odds that 13 different women from different backgrounds who have very similar and...

[Yavin4]

specific stories about being drugged and then raped are all lying about it? Pretty low odds. For their stories to NOT be true would take a lot of intense coordination and planning among complete strangers.

Was he charged and tried by a court of law? No, he was not, and you cannot label him a "convicted rapist". With that said and given the amount of stories and their specificity, it's clear that these women ARE NOT lying.

[cali]

1. I don't think they're all lying either.

[brush]

28. Would like to hear from Cosby Show cast

Last edited Sun Nov 23, 2014, 09:16 AM - Edit history (1)

I'm sure they have sympathy for the women if all of this is true (and it sure looks that way), and wondering who the hell were they working with all those years.

I'm also betting that they're not happy that their residual checks will stop coming now that re-runs of that show have been yanked off the air.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

38. I don't want to believe it but it cannot be ignored.

I don't want anymore fallen heroes/icons; but everything about this screams, "It happened!"

[still_one]

2. What I don't understand is why there is even a Statute of Limitations on rape or sexual assualt

[TorchTheWitch]

4. I never understood that either

Apparently, the only crime where there is no statute of limitations is murder.

I never really understood what the point was to statutes of limitations for any case civil or criminal. Seems like the only point is for the convenience of the court.

[TinkerTot55]

6. Statute of limitations on rape:

Men making laws for men.

[joshcryer]

9. See post #8.

They mainly concern the defenses ability to defend themselves, which is appropriate.

Teenagers witness someone commit a crime, dozens of adults disagree. 20 years later all the adults are dead, the prosecution comes in, calls the former teenagers to the stand, pow, conviction. Just to put it simply.

[Helen Borg]

7. Perhaps to prevent backlog?

I suspect it's because of some practical reason...

[joshcryer]

8. Limitation statutes, while disagreeable, are for proper defense.

If your witnesses die, for example, the prosecution shouldn't be able to charge you, because you no longer have witnesses for your defense. It goes further, of course, in many other incidences, but basically, an innocent person isn't going to keep all information that might prove they're innocent, because they never felt they did anything wrong. Do you keep every receipt for every purchase you made? Unlikely. But the IRS could swoop in and charge you for expenditures made decades ago (they have the means), and you'd be screwed if you messed up somewhere.

I'm not agreeing with Cosby's behavior and I believe he is a rapist, mind you, I am merely saying where the courts stand, just giving you an idea. Statutes of Limitations exist for a reason, they may suck in some circumstances, but that's how it is. For justice to be served to the majority, the minority of cases must, sadly, be unenforced. Maybe there's a solution, I don't know.

[still_one]

29. there is no limitation on murder

[davidn3600]

10. Becomes more and more difficult to prove as time goes on

[stone space]

51. That's a practical limitation that doesn't require a statute. (nt)

[Dreamer Tatum]

55. Because exact facts matter, and memories fade.

Also, as time passes, the motivation for the accusation may change and so might the facts as
claimed.

[Liberal_in_LA]

3. Agreed but people are having a hard time thinking of "america's dad" as rapist

[tavernier]

13. America's dad isn't a rapist.

The guy who played him on tv may be.

There are lots and lots of strong, positive, black male role models. Our president is a good example.

I think we put too much of our hearts and souls into actors and when they turn out to be flawed humans, we are devastated. But lets not make the mistake of judging real people in real life situations by someone who "played" a perfect family man.

I'm certainly not saying that you are guilty of this, but I'm "borrowing" your post to point out that there might be people out there who will now spread a cynical view of all black dads. I've already heard a few words on the media that skew in that direction.

[Droning Predator]

5. I don't want to believe this

Not saying its not true, but I justb don't want to believe it.

[Exultant Democracy]

11. I've never been a perverted celebrity, but I think the odds are better then you think

In the measure I think, and at this point hope, he is actually guilty. However my experience as a semi-public figure leads me to think that the odds are a little better then you would think.

To start 13 people with the same story isn't a slam dunk if 12 women heard the 1st woman's story first, and it isn't like all these women showed up the same day independent of each other.

Second in my experience as a semi public figure (never anything close to a celebrity) if people know who you are because of your job then at least 1 out of 5 people that seek you out will be bat shit crazy.

So lets take it as a given that all of these women were people that gravitated to Cosby because of his fame, and also take it as a given that Cosby promised to help these women with their careers. How many young women do you think he could have tricked into sleeping with him with a bullshit promise of fame? If we look at Wilt Chamberlain and Tiger Woods he could have slept with hundreds to thousands of women over the decade when he was at the height of his fame.

Now if 16 out of these hundreds of women were both crazy and also pissed to realize that not only did he lie to them but he pulled the same lie over and over again? Julian Assange found 3 people that would falsely accuse him of rape in a two month period because they found the right motivation.

Then again in my experience I've only known two people falsely accused of rape, while I know considerably more women who have been raped.

[HERVEPA]

26. Totally bullshit post. You should be ashamed.

[Exultant Democracy]

35. What is bullshit and what should I be ashamed of?

That I haven't 100% convicted the guy in my mind yet. I think it is about 30-70 leaning toward his guilt. However there is not a totally unreasonable reasonable narrative that allows for Cosby to be a total scum bag but not a serial rapist.

We know Julian Assange wasn't the serial rapist those three women accused him of being. Of course the only reason we know is because Assange's accusers came out within a time frame where Assange was able to discredit them with evidence. Who knows what would have happened if the Assange accusers had waited twenty years.

[d_b]

12. I'll just leave this here

[Fred Sanders]

14. The "strikingly similar" evidence rule in law is very difficult to meet...not so much in the

public kangaroo court of public opinion. Unlikely any one of these long ago allegations would admissible against any of the others, therefore the question you asked is fundamentally unfair and so prohibited in a real court, it is so prejudicial.

Good thing we have lawyers and judges to do the job, not commentators and talking heads.

[cali]

27. so you're strongly opposed to anyone finding Officer Wilson culpable in

"the public kangaroo court of public opinion"? right, freddy?

[Fred Sanders]

30. Finding...culpable. Define each, dearee?

[cali]

31. gee, freddykins, you don't know what culpable means?

aww, you're just so cute when you're defending the rights of accused rapists.

[Fred Sanders]

32. Everyone around DU understands your childish condescending posts, Cali, it is always amusing.

Are you over being wrong about ebola yet?

[cali]

34. sorry, fred, I wasn't one of the chicken littles re ebola.

and it's just sad when you need to bolster your own opinions by using "we" when you are speaking for yourself. as for condescending, ain't no one on DU that has anything on you when it comes to that, freddie.

[NM_Birder]

53. That was a nasty thing to say

Your post drips of prejudice and an ignorant fantasy that "accused rapists" deserve no defense. Innocent until proven guilty .......regardless what the tv says ..... Is the rule of law.

[HereSince1628]

39. this is a bit off topic maybe, but as you seem to have some idea what it means...

could you explain the difference between prejudicial and incriminating?

I'm not a lawyer, but I suspect there is some important critical difference that most of 'us' don't understand

[Fred Sanders]

41. Character evidence by the prosecution is not admissible. An unrelated accusation is considered

character evidence and inadmissible unless the accused puts his good character in issue at the trial as a defence against the allegation. It is the general ban against evidence of propensity rule.

Another exception to the general rule is if there is "striking similarity", a technical term, between one allegation and the other, then one allegation may be admissible one against the other as it then tends to establish identification. This is independent of the ban against propensity evidence.

[HereSince1628]

42. thanks

[NaturalHigh]

15. I have to agree Yavin.

It pains me because I have always been a big fan of Bill Cosby, but there's a lot of smoke. I have to think there's at least a little fire. I'm not going to go all out and say that all of the accusations are true, but I think there's plenty of evidence that Cosby is not a nice guy and that he's done some bad things.

[Nye Bevan]

16. Zero, and we all know that, even though some try to deny it (nt)

[elias7]

17. Must feel great to be so sure of yourself

Why be so contemptuous of those who take longer than you to form an absolute judgment? We don't "all know that" and no one is "trying to deny" anything. If you don't appreciate the mindset of someone you disagree with, wouldn't a good progressive thinker seek discussion and understanding?

[Logical]

18. You mean like this case......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMartin_preschool_trial

[XemaSab]

19. Yeah, because grown women claiming that they were drugged and raped

is the same as toddlers claiming that they were flushed down the toilet and molested in a hot-air balloon.

[Logical]

20. Hmmmmm...if so obvious crazy then explain the YEARS of trials. nt

[moriah]

25. Easy enough - Satanic Panic.

People were convinced Satanists were molesting and murdering kids.

It took years before anyone would accept the evidence that the stories weren't true.

[Yavin4]

23. In that case, the toddlers were co-located and coerced into their testimony

These are all different women from different parts of the country at various stages of their lives and careers.

[Generic Brad]

21. His accusers have nothing to gain by this

That is the most damning evidence against him in my opinion.

[ctaylors6]

22. Michelle Hurd's story is very

believable to me. I try not to read too many stories about celebrities, but I think in all crimes the credibility of the accuser has to be taken into account. Obviously, if someone's trying to make a lot of money of the accused, that would obviously go to credibility. I don't see that with Michelle Hurd. I haven't read any of the other women's stories.

Here's link: http://www.showbiz411.com/2014/11/21/cosby-complaint-law-order-actress-writes-i-was-instructed-to-never-tell-anyone-what-we-did-together

[CBGLuthier]

24. I would say exactly the same odds as a bunch of kids lying about Michael Jackson.

With the difference being it was pretty obvious for the last half of his life that Michael Jackson was a freak. Cosby at least seems to be able to conceal it.

[cwydro]

33. Remember the McMartin day care case?

Strange things happen.

And money was not involved in that one.

[uppityperson]

36. Grown women claiming they were drugged, raped = toddlers claiming they were abused, saw witches,

were in hot air balloons, and sexually abused by Chuck Norris?

That comparison is appalling.

[cwydro]

43. You cannot possibly be that naive

as to think the toddlers made all that up on their own?

No. They were coached. By adults.

There are some mentally unhinged people and money only increases the likelihood they'll show up.

[uppityperson]

44. Yes, that is what I meant. Comparing coached toddlers to a bunch of abused women is appalling.

[Exultant Democracy]

37. Of couse they won't rememeber that.

He may be guilty but what is going on in the absence of any legal proceedings should make anyone who believes in due process uncomfortable. But America has a long proud tradition of extrajudicial "justice"when it comes to black men. I hope he is guilty otherwise this public lynching is a tragedy.

[uppityperson]

46. I am curious, have you ever been a victim of a crime, or sexual abuse?

Serious question.

I have been sexually abused as well as being in a DV situation. I reported none to the police, just wanted it to go away. Now, years later, I sure as shit am speaking out about it because I wish I had had the support then to do so.

Talking years later about what happened is helpful to those who may be in such a situation now and doing like I did, avoiding it, wanting it to go away, rather than dealing with the assaulter and hopefully stopping them.

[LittleBlue]

40. In the realm of theoretically possible but not remotely plausible.

Cosby is pure evil. Can't believe he's going to get away with it.

[Shankapotomus]

45. That would depend if their stories

were available in the public record, I suppose. If you had access to the first story, it is easy to allege a similar instance based on what was already public knowledge about the first.

But I don't claim to follow this enough to know that.

Edit: However, from what I've read on DU, there seems to be strong evidence Cosby was engaging in activity a married man in a monogamous relationship should not have been engaging in. And that, of course, is a big red flag and a possible hint of more unacceptable or legally questionable behavior.

[HereSince1628]

47. That reasoning assumes independence of action

and I think that's actually questionable.

I really have no reason to disbelieve any of the women who have come forward and serial sexual predators aren't that hard to imagine. Nonetheless looking at odds requires being careful about the assumptions involved in the math.

It appears that some of the stories that have come forward have been motivated by other stories. That would deny independence.

[Blue_Tires]

48. As I mentioned in the other thread:

What are the odds of 14+ women from different backgrounds who have very similar and specific stories about being drugged and then raped not being able to produce any pieces of evidence among them?

If there are that many women (I'll be conservative and guesstimate that the 14 women to come forward so far represent 10-15% of women he abused during his career), then Cosby would have gotten really careless and sloppy at some point...

[Kablooie]

49. Oh come on. It could be worse.

it could be 14 women.

[malaise]

50. What are the odds of thousands of white men who claim that Obama is

not American?

[maced666]

52. Indeed.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

54. I guess my main question remaining is:

Was there any effort on any of these individuals to report any alleged assaults to police, or hell, even file a lawsuit or do anything to bring these allegations to light before the 2004 lawsuit was filed?

If so, it's definitely damning against Cosby.

If not, it doesn't mean any of those women are lying necessarily. But it does raise more questions than it answers.

Why didn't we hear anything before 2004 from anyone? Why did the plaintiff in the 2004 case settle the case before it could get to deposition testimony, let alone have trial testimony?

Again, I'm not saying this discredits anyone, but until I have any indication that any complaints were raised before 2004, I'm just not sure what to make of them.

If one person is assaulted and the victim fails to report it or make light of it, that's one thing. But if there are 13 different alleged victims, you'd think at least one of them would have been brave enough to bring it to light soon after the assault allegedly occurred.