Charlie Cook: Hillary Clinton Unlikely To Run In 2016

[Segami]

Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook said at a speech in Kansas City, Missouri that he thinks Hillary Clinton is highly unlikely to run for president in 2016. Most observers consider a Clinton candidacy an almost forgone conclusion, but Cook gave her only a 25-30% chance of entering the race to succeed President Obama, according to the Kansas City Star. Clinton has stumbled on the promotional tour behind her memoir “Hard Choices”, which was released this summer, leading Cook to believe she’s either “rusty” or “has lost her fastball.”


Previously, Cook has speculated that Clinton may be “too old” to run for president. “How many 67-year-olds make nine-year commitments, and what concerns have to be addressed if they do?” the 61-year-old wrote in February. That same month, Cook pegged Clinton’s chances of running at “maybe 70%.” He suggested there was only about a “30% chance that she doesn’t throw her hat in the ring.” That’s an almost perfect inverse of his current prediction. His new estimate counters conventional wisdom and considerable evidence. Clinton has said publicly several times that she’s thinking about running for president, her husband has joked about her impending run, and dozens of friends and advisors are gearing up for a seemingly inevitable run.


While Clinton insiders insist she hasn’t made up her mind, they also say that something catastrophic would likely have to happen to keep her from getting into the race. Even some in her orbit who are encouraging Clinton not to run think she probably will. Clinton has also done nothing to tamp down the outside groups that have sprung up to pave the way for a future run. Cook is the publisher of the Cook Political Report, a highly respected nonpartisan venue of electoral prognostication, data, and analysis that’s been a gold standard in Washington for almost 30 years.


Meanwhile, Cook said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has little chance of making it out of a Republican primary, if he decides to run. “Bush has two issues working against him to win the Republican primary for the 2016 presidential election,” Cook said at the private event in Kansas City. “One is immigration reform, which he favors; and two, is his advocacy of education reform.”




http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/charlie-cook-hillary-clinton-unlikely-run-2016

[NYC_SKP]

1. "disastrous book tour, in which she said some very inappropriate things"???

I must have missed these.

What inappropriate things did she say?

Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of running for president, and in any case he thinks she is either “rusty” or “she has lost her fastball.” He bases that on her disastrous book tour, in which she said some very inappropriate things and also did not sell many books.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/steve-rose/article4189947.html#storylink=cpy

Hmmmmmm.

Nothing here, but some commentary about the tour: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/03/10-lessons-from-hillary-clintons-hellish-book-tour/

So, what the heck things did she say?

[cali]

4. for one, the comment about how they were "dead broke"

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/06/hillary-clinton-stumbles-from-dead-broke-to-not-truly-well-off/

and then the comment: "don't let anyone tell you that corporations and businesses create jobs".

[still_one]

5. I have no idea what cook is talking about either. I also think his assessment that Hillary probably

won't run only amplifies that cook doesn't know what he is talking about either

[Segami]

6. This might help...

Clinton's first misstep came when she told ABC at the start of her book tour this month that she and her family "came out of the White House not only dead broke but in debt," adding later that her family had "no money" at that time. She wasn't wrong when she said the first family left the White House way behind financially. She said they were burdened by legal bills and still had to keep a roof -- actually two -- over their heads and send their daughter to college.

But here's a mighty big difference between Clinton and the average person.
For starters, she and her husband were obviously well positioned to quickly capitalize on the post-presidential custom of cashing in.

She left that part out.

Hillary Clinton had a massive book advance in the works and, along with the former president, the prospect of making millions. This is what fueled cries of hypocrisy.



Clinton 'not truly well off' The Clinton family's road to riches


After quickly trying to clean up the comments, though, Clinton swung and missed again on Sunday when questioned about her own financial standing and wealth inequality in an interview with The Guardian.

Clinton compared herself to others and noted her situation is different, too.

"We pay ordinary income tax, unlike a lot of people who are truly well off, not to name names; and we've done it through dint of hard work," she said.

One reason Clinton's two missteps on wealth are surprising is that questions about the issue are not new and shouldn't have come as a surprise.

Liberal websites like Mother Jones began asking questions about her speaking fees -- upwards of $200,000 -- in early May.

Republican groups like the Republican National Committee and America Rising, an outside anti-Clinton super PAC, had been probing the topic longer.

The progressive connection.

Sally Kohn, a progressive activist and Clinton critic, said she handled the wealth question poorly and "certainly has enough money to hire a better speaking coach."

But she downplayed the mistake.

"Why people do have a problem with her is not because of her personal wealth, it is because of her coziness with Wall Street. That is the problem," Kohn said.


http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/23/politics/clinton-populism-wealth/

[NYC_SKP]

7. Those are pretty revealing. I guess I hadn't associated them with the book tour.

But then the book tour isn't really just a book tour, is it?

It strikes me as a "Look at Me Me Me" tour.

Selling books is, at best, the third thing on the list of reasons she is out there.

[BootinUp]

2. Charlie is in over his head

he's better at judging state level politics.

[TwilightGardener]

3. Cook is smoking something good. I'm no Hillary fan, but she'd crawl though

broken glass and lemon juice to be President.

[underpants]

9. You said it very well

[underpants]

8. The 9 year commitment element I get

Other than that.... no. Hillary has never lost her fastball and she is so close. It is right there - I would be surprised if she didn't run.

[Rex]

10. No offense to Cook, but he is dead wrong. She is one determined lady.

I've never seen anyone want to be POTUS as bad as Hillary. She wants it and I bet she will get it.

[Segami]

12. You are probably right on all points,..

but at what cost will her auto-nomination be to the party?

[Rex]

14. Well it won't be good for the people, but great for investment bankers.

Unless she pulls a Judge Souter after getting elected and goes rogue on Wall Street. I however don't see that happening.

[hrmjustin]

11. She will run and win imo.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Hillary has been determined to get the Presidency.

[frazzled]

15. How many 67-year-olds make nine-year commitments?

I dunno. Did Charlie Cook ask John McCain, who was 72 when he ran for president in 2008?

[hrmjustin]

16. Charlie Cook: Hillary’s still (probably) running

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/charlie-cook-hillary-clinton-unlikely-run-2016

[CK_John]

17. I'm going with Cook, it's time to bring in the farm team.