Crashing Oil Prices Will Be Terrible ONLY For A Tiny Part Of The US Economy

[Fred Sanders]

The media propaganda campaign to get folks to feel sorry for the taxpayer subsidized, near tax-free profit gravy train than is oil and gas production in America is yet another lie on the loose that folks need to get their pants on over and chase before they ask for more subsidies.

Please, Mr. Oil Baron, stop pissing on folks and telling them it is raining.

............................................


"The US Economy And Stock Market As A Whole Won't Even Notice. While oil and gas capex represents an increasing share of overall capex, it represents less than 1% of GDP (see yellow line in chart above). For the stock market, the 11.9% drop in expected energy sector profits will be more than offset by gains elsewhere. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 8.6% in 2015.

There's no getting around the fact that lower oil prices are bad news for the oil sector. But what's bad for the oil sector is more than good for the rest of the economy and the markets.

"Consumer spending represents 68% of the US economy," Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders noted. "Oil and gas capex represents about 1% of US GDP and less than 9% of US total capex (which in turn represents about 12% of US GDP). Therefore, the benefit of lower energy prices to the consumer and many businesses greatly outweighs the significant hit to energy companies and/or energy-oriented capex, especially in energy-oriented states.""


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(Blue line is annual national industrial Capex, Yellow line is energy sector % of national GDP)



http://www.businessinsider.com/energy-investment-a-small-share-of-gdp-2014-12

[elehhhhna]

1. only if you call banks, private equity and @ 9% of the economy "tiny"

[Fred Sanders]

2. Who suffers then?

[elehhhhna]

4. tx, ok, ak, co, ca, nm, ut, wy,nd,sd,la, pa, off the top of my head.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. When you hire on with

a drill crew,you know damn well this won't last for ever. Most of the Oil Patch workers came from the Housing Bust areas. Once the well is brought on line,then service people take over. This is a boom and bust jobs market. Just ask all the folks on the West Slope of Colorado,4300 laid of in one day.

[elehhhhna]

5. and when every job gained by the OA goes away in the next 12 months,

High paying full time jobs with benefits, will it be a good thing? The recovery in the states named will not just stall but go backwards. Just saying.

[djean111]

6. Well, we IT folks who saw our high-paying jobs with good benefits go overseas and to h-1b visa

holders (and their spouses?), and see the number of H-1b visas increased, or be proposed to increase, every year (by Hillary last time) - we are told to suck it up and get retrained or whatever. Not happy anyone is losing their job, but interesting how THESE jobs count.

[elehhhhna]

7. i am a staffing rockstar headhunter. i watched IT go to hell back then.

Is this the bitter new American narrative? "I got effed over so you should too."? Because wow. Not cool.

[djean111]

8. Oh, I have been called a racist because the IT jobs are gone. Not cool either.

Are you suggesting I wish for higher gas prices, then? I should actually go out and champion fracking?

All I am saying is that, for any American job sector lost, the losers are told to suck it up, shut up, and hey! Look at how well the economy is doing!!!!!!!! I wouldn't wish job loss on anyone, and I have no control over that - the 1% do. Just saying that this is the new reality, and what did anyone think was going to happen if the Kochs allow us to go more towards wind and solar? Will we be keeping coal mines open, too? To save jobs?
I was just repeating the "advice" I was given, that's all. Hey, if it makes you feel better, I lost a $10 an hour online job to someone overseas who was willing to work for $6.

That's the future, love. The TPP and other "agreements" will see to that. I will work on being fucking happy about it, but doubties it will happen.

[elehhhhna]

9. we probably agree then

I headhunt for small oil/gas exploration and production companies. My clients are scared. I'm concerned.

I'm not here to defend fracking, BP, etc. I know things I can't say here. Some bad. I will tell you the biggest surprise to me in moving into this market ( came from legal staffing, very different) : the engineers, geoscientists, and company owners and managers that I deal with are not people who want to trash the environment. It's a dirty, risky, dangerous business but it's not run by evil people. There are huge exceptions of course. Note that the biggest safety fukups in recent memory in US oil production were committed by foreign companies operating here.

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

10. Well, you could be a programmer for an oil company

Sitting on pins and needles over here...

[djean111]

11. I was a programmer/system manager/QA/overseas support and liaison for one of

the biggest telecoms. Watched almost everything go overseas; what was left went to H-1b visas. Not replaced with better - replaced with cheaper. Variety of crap jobs since then, now I have my Social Security. Learned to think of all jobs as ephemeral at best. I wish you luck, I really do. And I feel the current situation is really just a game being played at high levels, between countries and banks. The jobs are just collateral damage, to them. This was all going to happen eventually, I think, but over a period of time, not the current crash.