Please PASS (On) The Popcorn: Democrats Need To Take 2016 General Election SERIOUSLY

[Segami]

"...The Republicans don’t care about the popcorn, they are preparing to steal our lunch..."

~snip~

Beware the Popcorn Syndrome. It seems to be spreading among left leaning social media and chattering classes. Right now it is centered on the 2012 Republican nominee and his refusal to go away, but is being expressed as well on a more endemic level. Pundits, bloggers and tweeters figuratively (literally in Rachel Maddow’s case) are rubbing their hands together and declaring how much fun this election is going to be. They play and replay the 2012 debates with their clown car, $10,000 bets, 9-9-9 economic plans and oops moments. Debates out of which, we seem to forget, a candidate did emerge who won 48 percent of the vote while running a perfectly imperfect campaign. It is time that the left started taking this election seriously, along with Romney and Jeb Bush and the rest, even those we view as stupid, misogynist, and out of touch wing nuts. It is also time to stop spreading those very words around like mustard on a bologna sandwich because these people have support, they have experience, and they have money. Lots and lots of money. In most cases, they also have the motivation and the means to win dishonestly if they can’t do it any other way. And more than anything else they are no laughing matter; they are extremely dangerous.



The 15 to 20 anticipated Republican candidates are already sorting themselves into three camps; 1) the severely conservative and crazy (a word I use despite my own advice) including Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, and a King (take your pick, Steve or Peter); the slightly less extreme with some credibility from previous elections (Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina and perhaps Rick Perry), and the moderate field of Chris Christie, Bush, and Romney. Another strong contender, Rand Paul, more or less evades categorization. Unless party discipline fractures we already know the endless and open debates of the last cycle will shrink to 12, a third assigned to Fox. With so few debates, some candidates will never qualify to be on the platform and stronger contenders will dominate the mic time. That will limit exposure of the real fruitcakes but could protect others (i.e. Rick Perry) from themselves. The sheer size of the early field plays to Romney’s chance of survival but as usually happens, discounting the serial front-runner debacle of 2012, the truly out there candidates will annihilate each other rather quickly. Christie will fade fast as his donors defect to Romney and Bush and his petulant demeanor wears thin. By South Carolina, maybe even earlier, the field will consist of the one or two really far and sorta far right candidates who have most successfully fed the egos of their personal pet millionaires, perhaps both Romney and Bush, and certainly Rand Paul. Were I to guess which moderate might be out by then it would be Bush; I wonder even now how much heart he has in the game.



Romney has the fire and is not a stupid man. He has probably spent hours watching videos of every 2012 debate, speech, and press conference and though he may be unable to change his wooden delivery don’t count on any 47 percent or “I don’t care about poor people” screw-ups this time around. Maybe the UP panel finds his candidacy amusing, but by then his chance for the nomination will be better than 50/50. No matter who lands on the platform in Cleveland, if the Democrats haven’t long since put away the popcorn and gotten serious they are going to lose this election. In a lot of ways the wind is at the backs of the Republicans despite the harmful policies they pursue where they govern and the vast constituencies they constantly manage to trivialize and offend. We know Republicans own the free media and have the money to buy the rest but Democrats appear to think that counts a lot less in presidential election years. They have bought the theory that the Obama Coalition belongs to the party when in fact it belongs to Obama and counting on the emerging minority populations to vote Democratic is futile if those minorities don’t vote.


There are other Republican advantages Democrats ignore at their peril:...





cont'

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/01/18/pass-on-popcorn-democrats-2016-general-election.html

[Segami]

1. "...As amusing as the growing Republican field of candidates,...

".....their frailties and missteps might be, and even with the election nearly two years out Democrats must stop giggling and start tending to business. We appear willing to drift toward a non-competitive nomination but still must prepare for a very competitive election and, surprise, one with more than one office at stake. There are down ballot candidates to recruit, campaigns to be built and honed, and those much touted new voters to register and motivate. If we fail to do this it will be Democrats who bring about the “permanent Republican majority” Karl Rove predicted after the 2004 election...."

[Cha]

2. "They have bought the theory that the Obama Coalition belongs to the party when in fact it belongs

to Obama and counting on the emerging minority populations to vote Democratic is futile if those minorities don’t vote."

Yeah, we'll see if the Dem Candidate wants to run away from President Obama like Gore did to Clinton for whatever reason.. or will they ask him to get out and campaign for whomever like Tom Wolf did in PA?

Can't we have a little when watching the clown car gear up?

Mahalo Segami

[Segami]

4. Running away...

from Obama's record would be the kiss-of-death for any Dem candidate. What will Hillary do?.....who knows what the new and improved Hillary team will bring to the table but I will say this, if there is the slightest hint of a stale candidate coming back to the nomination table bringing with them the same-old foot-stomping rage rants and nothing new or creative to offer voters of all stripes, well maybe popcorn will be the future staple diet for many.


I'm still going to rip open a BIG bag of popcorn, pull out the folding lawn chairs and watch the clown car parade their loons through streets of this nation.

[Cha]

6. I think so, too(kiss of death).. we have almost two more years and a lot can happen.. but, whomever

better not buy into the US media manufactured scenarios. Coming down Strong on the reality of what's been accomplished and exactly what the repubs have done to our country would be a Good start.

[Historic NY]

3. Well if the mid-term and the recent disaster are any indications...

a Republican will be sitting in the White House . If thats not enough to get people out then they deserve what will be the end result.

[Cha]

7. Let's take the Midterm as a vital warning of life or death.. not an indication. Actually 2010 should

have been a warning but evidently too many Dems wanted Inhofe, Cruz, and the gang to be charge of important issues pertaining to our Planet.

[Cha]

10. This from the link seemed pertinent..

•Republicans hate us more than we hate them. If a Republican doesn’t much want to vote for their own candidate they still love to vote against the Democratic one, a leap of which Democrats appear incapable. Republicans repeatedly elect indicted and convicted criminals while Democrats grouse about the two parties being the same and don’t vote at all.

Those Dems have to educate themselves better.. the two parties are not even close. They have two freaking years to take note.

[jeff47]

11. Good job repeating the 2014 strategy.

You have to give people something to vote for. Not something to vote against.

"OMG REPUBLICANS!!!" is something to vote against.

[Historic NY]

15. Well so far giving people things doesn't work...

unless its ponies and unicorns. Against all odds this administration has given people something to vote for...but apparently it rejected.

[jeff47]

17. Doesn't matter what the administration does when all D's run away from it.

In both 2010 and 2014, Democrats desperately tried to distance themselves from Obama and his administration's achievements. Leaving left-leaning voters nothing to vote for, only something to vote against. And Democrats got crushed.

In 2012, Democrats could not run away from Obama and his administration. Since he was on the top of the ticket. Left-leaning voters had something to vote for. And Democrats did very well.

Point being, "OMG REPUBLICANS" is a losing strategy. We need to stop pretending it can work. Which means stop apologizing for being the 'liberal' party so we can start giving people a reason to vote for us.

[obxhead]

5. Hillary should be lumped in with that field of Republicans.

I honestly feel she would be just as dangerous as any of those candidates.

The Democratic party needs real progressives running and getting solid backing.

[blkmusclmachine]

9. "The Democratic Party needs real progressives running and getting solid backing."

The 1% would never allow it.

[brooklynite]

12. Well then, all you'll need to do is convince about 20 milion actual Democrats to change their mind

Should be a piece of cake.

[Historic NY]

16. Yup they forgot about that....

and they also forgot the GOP is trying to keep even those from voting. Bill Clinton was right when he said its about arithmetic. The GOP figured that out. Their plan is to keep people, especially minorities from voting. Yup should be a piece of cake......

[jeff47]

18. We did it just fine in 2008.

And since Clinton is (so far) running the exact same campaign as 2008, it should be pretty easy to do again.

[brooklynite]

19. So all you'll need is a candidate with the same charisma and fundraising appeal as Barack Obama...

...since Warren isn't running, who've you got?

[jeff47]

20. We didn't "have" Obama in 2006.

It took a while for him to become "important" in the race.

We'll find someone. And if team Clinton can only use the strategy they came up with 8 years ago, we'll do fine.

[brooklynite]

21. But you had him in the race...

...having already made an impact with a Convention keynote address, and gaining financial and political commitments to allow him to be a competitive candidate. Name a prospective candidate who's even approaching that position.

[Historic NY]

22. He was emerging from the 04 convention then and on the radar ...

after winning the Senate in 05. He also announced in Feb 2007 he would run. Of course he already had a team in place from the Senate campaign 2002-03

[blkmusclmachine]

8. Don't underestimate the DEMS ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Segami]

13. "...They have proved themselves..

"....willing, able, perhaps even obligated to cheat..."

"...Perhaps even obligated to cheat..."..?....We should expect cheating as a reTHUG pre-requisite strategy supported by an unlimited cash trough.

[Nay]

14. Of course they have. And what has made them bolder is that no one, not even

Democratic leadership, has called them out on it, so why not cheat? Expect them to become bolder and bolder, to the point they can basically say, "Oh, yeah? So WTF are YOU gonna do about it?" the next time they cheat.

Another point: just anecdotally, I can say that in our neighborhood (and probably the whole state of VA), Obama brought out black people to vote like nobody's business. That huge turnout did not happen in the off-year elections during Obama's terms. We cannot expect that kind of historically-motivated vote for the next Dem candidate, even if it's a woman. Why not? Because there are a lot of Republicans among women, which is NOT true for blacks. Don't ask me why ANY women vote Republican - got no idea.