Statistical analysis shows how Patriots benefited from deflated ball

[LittleBlue]

Data Show The Patriots Have Fumbled The Ball Far Less Than Any Other NFL Team

Warren Sharp at Sharp Football Analysis spent a generous amount of time digging into the the Patriots’ records of fumbles and ball security.

He analyzed each team in the league, then plotted them in a chart.



The orange line shows the average number of plays teams run between fumbles: The Eagles anchor the league with one fumble every 76 plays, the Patriots lead with one fumble every 187 plays. Their nearest competitor, the Houston Texans, fumble once every 140 plays.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/lindseyadler/data-shows-the-patriots-have-fumbled-the-ball-far-less-than#.mx6bP76yZn



The team with 190 plays per fumble on the far right are the Patriots. Turnovers have an enormous influence on the outcome of the game, we can see why Belichick loves deflating footballs. You don't need to calculate standard deviation to see that the Patriots are unnaturally outside the average of NFL teams.

NFL Teams That Win Turnover Battle Have 72-17 Record

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/nfl-teams-that-win-turnover-battle-have-72-17-record/26247/


I pulled a college graph so that you can see more than 32 teams:


http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/23/4649718/college-football-turnover-margin-winning-percentage


2 pounds of PSI may not sound like much, but statistically it has contributed significantly to the Patriots winning.

[trotsky]

1. Now that's pretty damned interesting.

And an edge that one can "explain away" pretty simply. "We just teach better ball control."

The Belicheat way.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. In the second half, with inflated balls, the pats clobbered the colts.

Their balls were so inflated there didn't appear to be any room on the field for the colts.

[Whiskeytide]

16. You're killing me. n/t

[bluedigger]

3. It couldn't have anything to do with Belichick benching fumblers, could it?

Factor that into your analysis and get back to me.

[LittleBlue]

4. Right. Because Belichick is the only coach in the NFL

who has attempted to decrease fumbling.

Point is, the analysis suggests that no technique is responsible for this, unless you believe that his players are superhuman. All other 31 teams fall along the statistical best fit line, the Patriots are the sole outlier. Deflated balls are the obvious answer.

[bluedigger]

8. He's pretty well known for being extreme about it.

Anyone who follows the team knows this a major point of emphasis with him, from the draft on. Just ask Stevan Ridley. Saying the Patriots are the sole outlier is meaninglessly redundant - they are just at the end of the scale.

[Motown_Johnny]

5. A sampling of one is statistically meaningless

Unless there is evidence that the footballs were under inflated in all the other games being compared (and that all the footballs for all the other teams were not) then the analysis is also meaningless.

[MohRokTah]

6. Given the track record of the Patriots cheating, it's more of a stretch to NOT believe...

they've been using deflated balls all along.

Furthermore, Brady was instrumental in altering the rules so that each team provided their own balls.

[Motown_Johnny]

10. So all the officials in all the games were morons? And only the Pats did it?

You go ahead and believe whatever you want, that is your right. The truth is that there is no evidence, other than this one instance.

You may as well do a statistical analysis of the Chicago Bulls when Jordan was playing. I assume you would conclude that they were cheating too.


The analysis is meaningless.

[MohRokTah]

11. The Patriots ARE the ONLY outlier in the statistics above.

The Patriots HAVE been caught cheating in the past and WERE caught cheating in the last game.

Denial isn't a river in Egypt.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. the footballs were under inflated

Nobody has been "caught" doing anything.

Show me some video where a player was messing with the ball and then that player will be caught. It isn't like there are not cameras all over the damn place.


You are making assumptions about how it happened. Nothing I have said is an assumption.

I am not denying anything. I am simply pointing out that the statistical analysis is meaningless (which it is).

[MohRokTah]

13. Caught RED HANDED CHEATING

Denial is not a river in Egypt.

[Agschmid]

15. Yawn.

You used that line before...

[MohRokTah]

17. Because it is true. eom

[Motown_Johnny]

21. That simply isn't true

You need to prove how the footballs became under inflated before anyone is caught.

For all we know, one of the officials had money on the game and did it himself.

I am not saying that the Pats didn't cheat, I am just saying it is to soon to say that they did. Let the investigation play out.


http://www.nj.com/super-bowl/index.ssf/2015/01/post_10.html


^snip^



Here's what the league had to say:

Our office has been conducting an investigation as to whether the footballs used in last Sunday's AFC Championship Game complied with the specifications that are set forth in the playing rules. The investigation began based on information that suggested that the game balls used by the New England Patriots were not properly inflated to levels required by the playing rules, specifically Playing Rule 2, Section 1, which requires that the ball be inflated to between 12.5 and 13.5 pounds per square inch. Prior to the game, the game officials inspect the footballs to be used by each team and confirm that this standard is satisfied, which was done before last Sunday's game.

The investigation is being led jointly by NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Pash and Ted Wells of the law firm of Paul Weiss. Mr. Wells and his firm bring additional expertise and a valuable independent perspective. The investigation began promptly on Sunday night. Over the past several days, nearly 40 interviews have been conducted, including of Patriots personnel, game officials, and third parties with relevant information and expertise. We have obtained and are continuing to obtain additional information, including video and other electronic information and physical evidence. We have retained Renaissance Associates, an investigatory firm with sophisticated forensic expertise to assist in reviewing electronic and video information.








And since you have decided to turn this into a flame war I may as well point out that the Pats were only caught cheating once before (spygate). Again, a statistically meaningless fact.

[MohRokTah]

22. Teh circumstantial evidence is quite enough. GUILTY!

[Motown_Johnny]

25. I sincerely hope that was sarcasm n/t

[MohRokTah]

26. Nope, truth. eom

[Agschmid]

30. Guilty before proof, sure seems like a good democratic ideal.

[Whiskeytide]

32. Sorry. Circumstantial evidence...

... is still evidence - proof - of guilt. Its just a matter of how persuaded you are. Circumstantial evidence has put a lot of people in prison over the years.

But Brady certainly knew his balls were softer than usual. Or, maybe he has soft balls all the time. I don't know. But he handled his balls 75 times in that game - not to mention all the touches during warm ups. It's foolish looking to claim he was unaware of the tightness of his balls.

[Agschmid]

41. Having fun?

[Whiskeytide]

42. A ball. I'm a Steelers fan...

... so I'm loving it. And acting so juvenile is making me feel 13 again!!!

[Donald Ian Rankin]

33. Guilty people are guilty from the moment the crime is committed.

The point of "innocent until proven guilty" is that you shouldn't punish someone unless they've been convicted in a fair trial, not that you shouldn't say that they are guilty.

That said, erring on the side of presumption of innocence is generally the best way to go when there's doubt to give the benefit of.

[KamaAina]

7. How many rushing plays do they run

compared to other teams?

[underpants]

18. There's no telling from game to game

Two weeks ago against the Ravens they didn't run it once in the second half. Against the Colts one back ran it 36 times which is a big number in one game.

Generally the Pats are seen as a passing team - mainly because they have arguably the best QB ever- but they do normally run it with some regularity. You never know what you are going to get with them.

[KamaAina]

20. Of course, one does tend to run it a lot when one is up 45-7

so as to run down the clock.

[GeorgeGist]

9. BAd science.

[Whiskeytide]

14. That is really revealing ...

... the underside of the Pat's balls. I guess they will really feel it going forward, since every ref is now going to rub and squeeze the Pat's balls every chance they get. If the Pats become more clumsy and insecure handling their own balls next season, that will be a much stiffer blow to the entire "Brady/Belichick" legacy.

[underpants]

19. :-)

[underpants]

23. They beat the Colts 45-7 instead of 38-7

[Johonny]

34. or they've been cheating since roughly the year 2000

and would possibly have lost close division battles, play off games etc...

The numbers are interesting but don't tell you much about any one game even if true since fumble recovery is essentially a random event in football.

[Enrique]

24. any analysis of deflated balls

should include data on sacks.

[underpants]

35. The Colts had no sack in that game

[hfojvt]

27. I still have the question

Why the heck should there be a rule against something that causes less fumbles and/or fewer dropped passes?

Do we WANT the games to be decided by slop?

Although, my brother once said that he fumbled on purpoe in our backyard games - just to make them more exciting. Certainly we can all appreciate it when the team we want to lose fumbles the ball.

[Hari Seldon]

28. Eagles fan here

we may throw snowballs at drunk Santa
and Jimmy Johnson

but we NEVER CHEAT

Maybe THATS WHY we have yet to hoist a Lombardi...

[A-Long-Little-Doggie]

29. My question is this:

If the Patriots scored 17 points in the first half with deflated balls and 28 points in the second half with fully-inflated balls, where is the advantage to the Patriots for using softer balls?

[rickford66]

31. First half scores DO effect the second half play calls.

I didn't watch the game so it's just a general observation.

[Jim Lane]

36. Question for anyone who's been following this

As I understand it, the refs test each team's balls before the start of the game. Presumably this was done and all the balls from both teams were OK.

What happens to the balls then? It wouldn't make any sense for the refs to test them, return them to the team, and let the team take them down into the locker room and bring them back later. A team could just submit decoy balls for testing and then actually use any balls they wanted. If the NFL doesn't want to pay someone to be the Keeper of the Balls, one on each sideline, then you'd think that, at least, each team would be required to keep its tested balls in a box or bin that's out in the open so that anyone sneaking up to try to deflate them or inflate them or cover them with pine tar would be readily observed.

Does anyone know what procedures the NFL uses for post-test integrity of the tested balls?

[Botany]

38. 36 balls are wieghed, measured, and have their pressure tested a few hours before the game .....

.... 12 balls are given to one team, 12 balls are given to the other team,
and 12 balls are kept by the refs for the kicking game. So we do know that
all the balls given to the Pats prior to the game were up to standards but
by the first half of the game 11 of 12 balls the Pats had not enough air pressure
in them by something like 30% ..... somebody had to do something to make
the balls lose something like 4 psi.

Bottom line the Pats were cheating.

[mythology]

39. Here is the basic procedure

A little more than 2 hours before the game the footballs are delivered to the referees. The footballs are tested for proper psi. Then the footballs remain with the referees until just before kickoff.

So the team wouldn't have access to the footballs during that time. But once they have the footballs, it would be a pretty quick and easy process to have a needle handy to let out some air. It's not like it would require an elaborate contraption and it's not like anybody is watching the ballboys.

[Jim Lane]

40. Strange procedure IMO

Just before kickoff, the refs could put the approved balls in a box or bin out in the open on the sideline. After that, no one goes near it except to withdraw the balls, one ball at a time, to be immediately put in play.

From what you're saying it seems that the NFL takes great pains to ensure the acceptability of the balls and then makes it easy for all that work to be undone in a moment by a ballboy with a needle.

[tranche]

37. You fumble once on that team and you're benched.

Seriously. Bellichick has done this for years. There is no coach in the league that's as much of a hard ass on RBs that fumble the football. In fact, his hard headedness on this probably tracks the graph precisely.