This is probably the most important article written about Deflategate

[edhopper]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/warren-sharp/stats-show-the-new-englan_b_6555802.html?utm_hp_ref=sports

Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof After 2006 Rule Change Proposed by Tom Brady

It's a bit wonky and stat heavy, but it shows something highly improbable happened after rule changes allowed teams to use their own footballs.

Initially, looking at weather data, I noticed the Patriots performed extremely well in the rain, much more so than they were projected. I followed that up by looking at the fumble data, which showed regardless of weather or site, the Patriots prevention of fumbles was nearly impossible. Ironically, both studies saw the same exact starting point: 2007 was the first season where things really changed for the Patriots. Something started in 2007 which is still on-going today.

[merrily]

1. Manning and Brady propose that each team provide its own balls, both at home and away,

and that raised no suspicion within the NFL?

It's like anything else, including politics, baseball and celebrity awards: If a lot money and adulation/perks are involved, it's probably not going to be all you'd hope.

[edhopper]

2. I realize

that the NFL might ignore this because it opens up a bigger can of worms.
Doesn't mean there isn't a large smoking gun.

They ignore steroid use as well, and ignores concussions for a long time.

[merrily]

3. I didn't say there was no smoking gun. To the contrary, I implied there were at least 3 of them,

with the NFL possibly holding the biggest one of all.

The reason that Brady gave, according to the story at your link was that each quarterback likes the ball a certain way. What the hell did the NFL think was he talking about? Different color footballs? Different shape footballs?

I should say that I know less than nothing about team sports. But, my skepticism is alive and well anyway.

[trotsky]

4. The fact that it's stat-heavy is great.

It needs to be, because it makes an ironclad case that the Pats were up to something. Something that evidently was only possible with that rule change. If it was anything else - new ball handling technique, etc. - they could explain it.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/patriots-always-keep-a-tight-grip-on-the-ball-1422054846

...Numerous players have said a softer ball is easier to grip, and a ball that’s easier to grip is harder to drop.

(snip)

New England has had an uncanny ability to hold on to the football for quite some time. According to data compiled by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots fumble far less than any other team that plays outdoors, where the elements can make the football harder to handle. Beginning in the 2010 season, Patriots players have fumbled (whether lost or recovered) once every 73 touches from scrimmage, which is 52% better than the league average. The next best team is the Ravens, who have fumbled once every 55 touches.

Additionally, according to Stats, LLC, the six players who have played extensively for the Patriots and other teams in this span all fumbled far less frequently wearing the New England uniform. Including recovered fumbles, Danny Amendola, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount have lost the ball eight times in 1,482 touches for the Patriots since 2010, or once every 185.3 times. For their other teams, they fumbled 22 times in 1,701 touches (once every 77.3).

To repeat: players who have played for the Pats AND other teams in their career have fumbled almost 3 times more often when they played for their other team (either before or after playing for the Pats).

[edhopper]

5. Seems pretty conclusive

but will the NFL address this?