Article: Why the Pointless NYC Subway Shutdown Was Worse Than You Realize

[FLPanhandle]

http://www.wired.com/2015/01/nyc-blizzard-subway-shutdown/

Meteorology and governing are inexact sciences. You have limited information to work with, tremendous time constraints, and way too many variables. You do the best with what you have and hope you get it right.

But that doesn’t mean after the fact assessments are invalid, especially when millions of people are affected. And in the case of the decision to shut down New York’s public transportation system in the face of a snowstorm Monday night, it looks like the wrong call was made. More than an inconvenience, that could be a bigger problem than you realize, one that could haunt the area years down the road.

Protecting people is paramount, but “you don’t want to cry wolf,” says Henry Willis, director of the RAND Corporation’s Homeland Security and Defense Center. “Then people won’t listen to you” when you need them to. The next time a big storm hits, New Yorkers might not heed the warnings to stay home. Or, perhaps even worse, government officials could disregard the warnings of meteorologists and decide not to order a shutdown even when one might be warranted, not wanting to get it wrong again.

Officials in the South who have dealt with hurricanes are familiar with this problem. 2005’s Hurricane Katrina is a good example: Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders were issued, but disregarded by many. “Some people said they didn’t leave because there had been evacuation warnings in the past and the storm never hit New Orleans,” says Willis. The results were disastrous.

Shutting down the subway is a big deal for New Yorkers. It’s a system that, under normal circumstances, runs 24 hours a day, every day. It’s used more by than 5 million people daily. If it’s not running, normal life in the city does not exist. So its closure could have an outsize effect on the citizen’s psyche. The next time a blizzard’s expected, people may say, “Remember that time they closed the subway because they were so afraid? These government types always overreact.”

Which is the last thing you want people thinking when you really need to clear the streets.



I've seen this phenomeon in Florida during Hurricane warnings. Over-reaction by government officials lead people to be less safe in the long run. I sometimes think officials try to play it too safe and figure they will be out of office when the bad one really hits. Also, the media loves ratings so emphasize the worst case sceanerio for weather emergencies.

[blm]

1. Most sane NYers have been positive about the precaution. NYC was then able to pivot

to target needs of outer areas that did get the brunt of the storm.

With a difference of only 30 miles, the smartest thing to do was done.

Methinks Jordan Golson was looking for an opening to attack government - no matter what.

[GreatGazoo]

8. Is is "Insane" to think that there is no good reason to shut down the very system that

provides transportation to hospital workers and others who MUST work? How do those people get home - no vehicle traffic, no busses and no subway? What the hell is "safe" about being stranded in Manhattan during a blizzard?

This was political grandstanding by Andrew Cuomo. The trains ran anyway, they just wouldn't carry tired, cold NYers home because Andrew Cuomo wanted to go on TV in time for the evening news. He pretended like everyone in the world has a 9 to 5 office job and pooped on those who don't. Big mistake that could have killed someone.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s move to shut off the city’s subway system overnight on Monday ahead of an anticipated blizzard came as a surprise to transit workers and runs against common sense, because the trains need to move as part of keeping the tracks clear and will be running all night anyway, according to a transit insider. The governor’s 6 pm announcement that subway and bus service would be halted completely at 11 pm came as a surprise to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s Incident Command Center, where workers first heard about it on the news, said the source, who lacks authorization to speak about internal matters and asked to remain anonymous.
...
A great irony in the governor’s move is that the subway itself arose from the paralysis of the Blizzard of 1888. New Yorkers needed a way to get around in a snow storm, and the subways were the perfect antidote to surface congestion. Now, after two hurricanes during which it made sense to stop subway service due to serious flooding concerns, the governor has decided that favorable headlines trump urban life. After all these years, should we expect anything else from a governor who hasn’t recognized the role transit plays in driving New York City’s existence? Sadly, I guess not.

http://secondavenuesagas.com/2015/01/26/after-cuomos-surprise-overnight-subway-service-continues-without-passengers/

My heart goes out to those who had to walk home in the snow storm because Cuomo wanted to look like he was in charge.

[Sheldon Cooper]

2. If the subway was being shut down every other week, he might have a point.

But honestly, how many times has the system been shut down in recent years? Once, maybe twice? I think the psyche of New Yorkers will be just fine.

[FLPanhandle]

3. The trick will be how people react to the next storm

That's what will tell us how people are reacting.

[shraby]

4. It's far better to be safe than sorry. A dangerous storm is a dangerous storm. Exactly what was

predicted could have happened and woe be to the people who didn't listen.
It's no fun to freeze to death or drown because of an error in judgement.

[AceWheeler]

5. The reason for shutting down the subway...

...was not just because it was at risk. It was to keep people home. And that was a good thing, given the potential above-ground dangers.

And to assume New Yorkers' psyches are that fragile is rather extreme.

Finally, "crying wolf" is irrelevant. Look at this for further clarification: http://www.reality-check-online.org/cried-wolf.htm. The key is the notion of a full risk analysis. Based on the risk analysis, one has to decide which error, Type I (false positive) or Type II (false negative), one is most willing to make.

Of course, one might disagree with someone else's risk analysis, but it is important to recognize the risk being addressed. In this case it was as much the risk involved in people being out and about, if not more, than the risk of subway failure.

[leveymg]

6. Municipal lockdowns are becoming the New Normal - this is a post-9/11 problem

that, itself, signals a serious breakdown of what was once a relatively "free society." The Homeland Security Imperative is now at work, and it's eroding traditional freedoms.

I disagree - it is not always a good thing to err on the side of caution. It is better to limit the range of governmental error by imposing penalties for policy failures, poor official judgement and abuses of power.

[sharp_stick]

10. Oh wow that one wild ricochet

Going from subway closed due to a missed storm to municipal lockdown?

Not being able to take a subway for a few hours is not a lockdown. You are free to wander around in any blizzard you feel like.

[leveymg]

11. To close a functioning subway, along with the roads, is in effect a municipal lockdown.

Being free to walk isn't freedom of movement as most people have come to understand it in modern times.

Were the subway closure justified by actual safety reasons, such as track flooding, that would be different. Instead, this was largely motivated by political considerations. That violates a basic right of the population, and should not be excused.

[magical thyme]

7. so, in other words, if they hadn't shut down the subway and the storm had hit head-on

the next time people would pay attention if they choose to shut down the subway.

But because this time they didn't get hit head-on, the next time they definitely will get hit head on.

Or something like that. What an idiot.

Whether or not this or any other blizzard threat pans out or not has zero relation to this storm shifting a few miles.

Somehow I think NY's psyches will survive.

[GreatGazoo]

9. The most common place for people to die during a snow storm is: at home

More specifically, shoveling snow at home:

Erie County officials said one of the deaths was from a car accident and four other people died due to cardiac issues that resulted from shoveling snow.

http://wgntv.com/2014/11/20/at-least-8-killed-after-in-massive-snowstorm-buffalo-braces-for-up-to-3-feet-more/

A study looking at data from 1990 to 2006 by researchers at the US Nationwide Children's Hospital recorded 1,647 fatalities from cardiac-related injuries associated with shovelling snow. In Canada, these deaths make the news every winter.

Cardiologist Barry Franklin, an expert in the hazardous effects of snow removal, believes the number of deaths could be double that. "I believe we lose hundreds of people each year because of this activity," says Franklin, director of preventative cardiology and cardiac rehabilitation at William Beaumont Hospital, Michigan.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-30119410

So if Cuomo was insisting that people stay home (even while he shuts down the way they get there (!?)) then perhaps he should also tell them not to shovel snow since THAT is the most dangerous thing to do during a snow storm.

[sharp_stick]

12. I agree this exact thing

is at least a partial reason why so many people decided to stick around with Katrina. They were told the world was ending over 3 or 4 hurricanes and this didn't seen any different so what the hell, just wait it out.

when you have the Gov and Mayor on TV talking about the historic storm that IS coming and then it misses it causes a real perception that they have no clue what they were saying.

I can kind of understand the reasoning. They wanted people to take the threat seriously and didn't want first responders out trying to help morons wandering around in the middle of a blizzard. The problem is they didn't mention that it was still a forecast and they failed to nuance it and tell people that there was a chance that it might not be "The Storm Of The Century".

If they had of gotten three feet of snow and 65mph winds in Manhattan, that is if the storm wound up about 60 miles further West than it actually did people would have been happy they didn't wind up out in it. That was exactly where the European global model had the storm going and it's been the big winner over the last couple of years at predicting these storms. Unfortunately all the other models were in pretty good agreement that the storm was going to wind up 60 miles further East that the European and a lot of people just dismissed them.

We had a normally responsible weather crew here in CT that actually put up a graphic in their forecast based only on the European model at 6:00 Monday, the night of the storm. It had us pegged at 47 inches of snow by the next evening. We wound up with 17, just a little lighter. That graphic was never mentioned again.

[KamaAina]

13. Please note: DINO Governor Cuomo, not Dem Mayor de Blasio, ordered the shutdown.

The MTA is a state agency. It also runs the commuter rail lines leading into NYC from the suburbs.