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Sat Jan 31, 2015, 01:52 AM

 

The Obama administration’s illusionary job gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership


The Fact Checker frequently warns readers to be wary of claims by politicians that various policy initiatives will yield tens of thousands of jobs. Such claims are often based on studies that rely on a variety of assumptions, any of which can be called into question. So we were interested when we received a call from a reader who wondered how the administration calculated that a proposed international trade agreement, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, would support some 650,000 jobs...

The Fact Checker of course takes no position on whether the proposed trade deal is good or bad. But we were curious about how this number was calculated. Notice that Vilsack referred to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which is a well-regarded centrist think tank that focuses on international economic policy. (NOTE: Run and funded by PETE PETERSON, the rich guy who wants to cut SOCIAL SECURITY & MEDICARE)

Asked about the statistic on 650,000 jobs, the White House referred us to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. USTR spokesman Matthew McAlvanah directed us to page 58 of the book. “They do not provide an estimate on jobs,” he acknowledged. “However they do provide a methodology that one could use...”

The Commerce Department estimates that about 5,500 jobs are supported by every $1 billion in exports, so in theory that also would yield about 650,000 jobs. But that calculation would ignore the fact that the Petri book found that imports would increase by virtually the same amount as exports, meaning the net number of new jobs is zero...

There is, of course, a long history of presidential administrations touting imaginary job gains from trade deals. “I believe that NAFTA will create 200,000 American jobs in the first two years of its effect,” then-President Bill Clinton said in 1993... “I believe that NAFTA will create a million jobs in the first 5 years of its impact.” Clinton was relying in part on analyses generated by the Peterson Institute. Two years later, after a financial meltdown in Mexico and collapse of the peso evaporated any job gains from NAFTA...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/30/the-obama-administrations-illusionary-job-gains-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/






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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Obama administration’s illusionary job gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (Original post)
ND-Dem Jan 2015 OP
AzDar Jan 2015 #1
2naSalit Jan 2015 #2
avaistheone1 Jan 2015 #3
Populist_Prole Jan 2015 #4
aspirant Jan 2015 #5
woo me with science Jan 2015 #6
m-lekktor Jan 2015 #7
ChosenUnWisely Jan 2015 #8
nenagh Jan 2015 #9
Vinca Jan 2015 #10
pampango Jan 2015 #12
Vinca Jan 2015 #14
pampango Jan 2015 #16
aspirant Jan 2015 #17
pampango Jan 2015 #19
aspirant Jan 2015 #24
pampango Jan 2015 #25
ND-Dem Jan 2015 #22
Vinca Jan 2015 #20
ND-Dem Jan 2015 #21
pampango Jan 2015 #23
Vinca Feb 2015 #26
pampango Feb 2015 #28
Vinca Feb 2015 #29
pampango Feb 2015 #30
Vinca Feb 2015 #31
Octafish Jan 2015 #11
KoKo Jan 2015 #13
Tierra_y_Libertad Jan 2015 #15
Vattel Jan 2015 #18
sendero Feb 2015 #27

Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 01:59 AM

1. K & R

 

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 02:21 AM

2. K&R

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 03:04 AM

3. K&R

 

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 03:45 AM

4. Damned right

Like I said: My bankbook would look wonderful if I recorded only the deposits and not the debits.

It's the same shit they try to pull in selling all the other "free trade" agreements. I'm just surprised they ( not the plutocrats themselves; they couldn't give a shit what we think, but their sock-puppets in the media, elected office, and even here on DU ) think we'll still believe them.

"Curiouser and curiouser".

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 04:05 AM

5. Nice post

Approaching TPP as an anti-jobs bill could get results.

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:05 AM

6. Illusory = LYING. Lying about predatory "trade" agreements,

lying about military restraint, lying about caring about the environment, lying about standing up for the 99 percent,

LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES.

It's what corporate politicians do. It's what Third Way politicians do. They are corporate employees working to dupe customers for profit. They are not representatives of the people in a democratic system.

This brazen corruption and contempt for the people must end, and you don't end it by tolerating more "lesser of evils" manipulation.

No more Third Way liars, thieves, and warmongers. No more Third Way con men *or* women.



Hillary Clinton = Third Way Predatory Agenda

Hillary Clinton's leading role in drafting the TPP
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101667554

Hillary Clinton and Trade Deals: That “Giant Sucking Sound”
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016101761

Hillary Clinton Cheerleads for Biotech and GMOs
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112772326

Dissecting Hillary Clinton's Neocon Talking Points - Atlantic Interview
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017209519

NYTimes notices Hillary's natural affinity toward the neocons.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025205645

Hillary Clinton, the unrepentant hawk
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024876898

More from Hillary Clinton's State Department: The fascistic TISA (Trade in Services Agreement)
http://m.thenation.com/blog/180572-grassroots-labor-uprising-your-bank

How Hillary Clinton's State Department sold fracking to the world
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251376647

Hillary Clinton Sides with NSA over Snowden Disclosures
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101695441

On the NSA, Hillary Clinton Is Either a Fool or a Liar
http://m.thenation.com/article/180564-nsa-hillary-clinton-either-fool-or-liar

Corporate Warfare: Hillary Clinton admits role in Honduran coup aftermath
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025601610#post29

The Bill and Hillary Clinton Money Machine Taps Corporate Cash
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025189257

Hillary's Privatization Plan: TISA kept more secret than the TPP
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014829628

Hillary Clinton criticizes Obama's foreign policy 'failure'; strongly defends Israel
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014867136

Some of Hillary Clinton's statements on Social Security.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024379279

Hillary Clinton's GOLDMAN SACHS PROBLEM.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025049343

Ring of Fire: Hillary Clinton - The Perfect Republican Candidate
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017209285

How Americans Need Answers From Hillary Clinton On TPP, KXL, Wall St & More
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017181611

Hillary Clinton Left Out By Liberal Donor Club
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025809071

Why Wall Street Loves Hillary
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016106575

Hillary Clinton: Neocon-lite
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101684986

Interactive graphic of Hillary Clinton's connections to the Forbes top 400 (Follow link in post)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025824981#post9





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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:56 AM

7. K & R. glad to see not everybody believes the lies. nt

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 07:05 AM

8. Perhaps we the people will get the trifecta of being fucked over by Democratic Presidents

 

Last edited Sat Jan 31, 2015, 08:13 AM - Edit history (1)

Clinton gave us NAFTA

Obama wants to give us the TPP

Obama also wants to cut SS by Chaining the CPI or will he be kind and save that for President Hillary Clinton.

With Democrats like these, why bother voting for republicans when the Democrats are just as ready and eager to fuck you over like a Republican!

A vote for a Democrat other then a liberal/progressive one voting for a Republican.

When will Democrats wake the fuck up?



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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 08:55 AM

9. K&R

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 08:58 AM

10. What I don't understand is that we have evidence to show this will not work.

Ross Perot was right.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #10)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 10:50 AM

12. If you look around the progressive world, there is plenty of evidence that it does work.

We just don't have the progressive policies on taxation, safety net, unions and regulations to make any trade policy (more trade or less trade) work to the benefit of the middle class here.

Ross Perot was a republican blowhard using the usual republican tactics of appealing to fear and emotion.

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Response to pampango (Reply #12)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 03:53 PM

14. The safety net would have to be stopping companies from outsourcing jobs.

If they can hire a worker overseas for 75 cents an hour, it's unlikely they're even willing to pay minimum wage here. I was no fan of Ross Perot, but when NAFTA was in the works he make the remark of a "great sucking sound" as jobs went south to Mexico and, sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Everything from appliances to Hershey's chocolate is made in Mexico.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #14)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 04:32 PM

16. Progressive countries prove that trade at much higher levels than we have does not destroy jobs,

unions or the middle class. Progressive countries pay higher wages than we do and their jobs are not all outsourced to countries paying workers "75 cents an hour". You may think it is impossible for progressive taxes, legal and popular support for unions, effective safety nets and corporate regulation to protect middle class jobs but that is the reality of what happens in progressive countries. Therefore, it must not be impossible.

Thank goodness Germany and Sweden did not have their own "Ross Perots" to warn them about a "giant sucking sound" that did not happen to them even though they trade 3 times more than the US does.

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Response to pampango (Reply #16)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 04:47 PM

17. What is a V.A.T. tax and how does it work?

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Response to aspirant (Reply #17)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 05:22 PM

19. Here's the wiki for the Value Added Tax.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-added_tax

To fix this problem, nearly all countries that use VAT use special rules for imported and exported goods:

All imported goods are charged VAT tax for their full price when they are sold for the first time
All exported goods are exempted from any VAT payments
For these reasons VAT on imports and VAT rebates on exports form a common practice approved by the World Trade Organization.

To me it means that a car that costs $20,000 to make in Germany, when it is sold to a German consumer with a 20% VAT the buyer will pay $24,000 for the car. If the US or Japan exports a similar $20,000 car to Germany, trading rules allow a 20% VAT on it so that a German consumer pays $24,000 for a $20,000 car whether it is made in Germany or elsewhere.

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Response to pampango (Reply #19)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 07:29 PM

24. What about,

for instance a Vietnamese computer shipped to Germany at $40 and the compatible German made computer costs $150. What does the VAT tax do then?

Are you sure VAT applies to German made and not only to imports and exports?

My interpretation is it is like a tariff to protect domestic production.

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Response to aspirant (Reply #24)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 08:17 PM

25. The VAT definitely applies to domestically-produced goods.

A value-added tax (VAT) or also goods and services tax (GST) is a form of consumption tax. From the perspective of the buyer, it is a tax on the purchase price.

A VAT is like a sales tax in that ultimately only the end consumer is taxed.

for instance a Vietnamese computer shipped to Germany at $40 and the compatible German made computer costs $150. What does the VAT tax do then?

A 20% VAT would increase the $40 computer to $48 for the German consumer.

My interpretation is it is like a tariff to protect domestic production.

No, the VAT applies equally to domestically-produced and imported goods.

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Response to aspirant (Reply #17)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:20 PM

22. it works to shift taxation away from the rich onto the poorer and away from capital onto labor

 

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Response to pampango (Reply #16)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:15 PM

20. Germany, Sweden and other countries who care about their citizens don't have Republicans.

Given their reluctance to fund any social program, I would rather not have what jobs we have left go offshore. We're pretty much down to only having burger flippers and undertakers safe in their jobs and if there's a way to ship Grandma to Vietnam for a cheap embalming, they'll do that, too.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #20)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:19 PM

21. no, they have fascists. and they don't care about their citizens anymore than here.

 

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Response to Vinca (Reply #20)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 06:27 PM

23. If you're willing to concede to republicans issues like progressive taxes, effective safety nets,

support for unions and effective corporate regulation, then I agree keeping poor foreigners away from the jobs that republicans leave us with may be the best we can do. I am not willing to do that.

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Response to pampango (Reply #23)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 09:26 AM

26. My primary concern is poor Americans.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #26)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

28. If the poor are your primary concern I would not concede regressive taxes, weak unions,

an ineffective safety net and corporate regulation in exchange for less trade with poor foreigners.

That's not how progressive countries take care of their poor anywhere in the world. The U.S. is not so unique/exceptional that we need to reinvent the 'progressive' wheel.

And the US tried the high tariff/low trade coupled with all the conservative policies above in the 1920's. It produced record inequality and led to the Great Depression - perhaps why progressive countries do not follow that prescription today.

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Response to pampango (Reply #28)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 02:31 PM

29. So explain to me how this trade agreement, which will end up outsourcing American jobs, is good.

You seem to be living in a fantasy world where someday the GOP will come around and want to emulate the progressive nations around the world. That would be nice, but it is never going to happen. I'm not conceding anything, just dealing with life as it is, not as I would like it to be.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #29)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 03:37 PM

30. If it raises labor and environmental standards it won't cost jobs. If it does not do those things,

it is worthless anyway. I understand that past trade agreements did not have enforceable labor and environmental provisions. Does that mean they never will? Do our past failures doom us forever? My question is do such standards belong in the rules governing international trade and, if so, how do we get them there if not by negotiated agreements?

Do we have to wait for a president whom we trust more than many seem to trust Obama? What happens in the meantime since our trade with TPP countries is currently governed by WTO rules and several 'free trade' agreements, none of which do much for labor and the environment.

My frustration in this is that liberals seem to be so focused on fighting trade which is not our core problem. It is a fight we may well win ("dealing with life as it is" because most republicans want to see the TPP defeated. The fights we cannot win (because they exist only "in a fantasy world" are those on progressive taxes, stronger unions, etc. precisely because the republican base will oppose us on those. I guess you can make the case that we should concentrate on those battles which the republican base will help us win and save the really important - but 'fantasy world' stuff - that the republican base will oppose us on.

Without progressive taxes, strong unions, etc. history shows that our middle class will suffer whether we have tiny "North Korea"-style (or 1920's America-style) trade levels or gigantic "Germany"-style trade.

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Response to pampango (Reply #30)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 06:33 PM

31. I can't wait for the day we enforce any standards in some of those countries.

It will never happen. There will never be a day when American slave labor and offshore slave labor is paid equally. I'm afraid you're wearing rose-colored glasses. I hope you are right, but I'm not optimistic you are.

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 10:20 AM

11. Pete Peterson, the President's friend

Pay Back the Money Borrowed From Social Security

Sen. Don Riegle and
Lori Hansen Riegle
Apr 05, 2011 04:02 PM EDT


Throughout its 75 year history, Social Security has provided critical economic security to millions of retirees, families, children and the disabled. Social Security is paid for by the dedicated contributioans of workers and their employers, has administrative costs of less than one percent, and since it cannot borrow to fund its operations, Social Security does not contribute to the deficit. No wonder that Americans from all walks of life consistently and overwhelmingly support our nation's most successful social insurance program -- a level of support that is not achieved by other governmental programs.

Social Security currently has a $2.6 trillion surplus which has been building up since the 1983 amendments and is intended to help absorb the retirement of the baby boomers. This surplus is invested in US Treasury securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. According to the Social Security Trustees 2010 report, Social Security can pay full benefits until 2037, at which time, if nothing were done to strengthen its financing, Social Security would still be able to pay about 78 percent of benefits. This quarter of a century means there is time to strengthen its financing without cutting benefits for future beneficiaries. The American people will insist that Congress do what is needed for the program to pay full benefits and protect these benefits they were promised and have earned.

Social Security Opponents Use Fear to Manipulate Debate

Opponents of Social Security have been working for many years to tell a much different story about Social Security in order to influence how the media and Washington decision makers view it. One example of this is Wall Street insider Pete Peterson who has dedicated $1 billion of his Wall Street fortune to the destruction of Social Security as we know it. Peterson is joined in his efforts by other wealthy special interests that have much to gain if Social Security is cut or eliminated.

Despite the overwhelming public support for Social Security and the critical retirement, survivors and disability insurance it provides to millions of Americans, Peterson and his Wall Street friends want to reduce Social Security's protections and force average working Americans to put their future retirement, life and disability security in the hands of Wall Street -- the same crowd that nearly caused a collapse of our economy and pushed the country into the Great Recession.

CONTINUED...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/sen-don-riegle/post_1901_b_845106.html

PS: Thanks for the heads up, ND Dem. Rhetoric is diiferent from propaganda.

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 11:25 AM

13. Recommend.

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 03:57 PM

15. Neo-libs triumphant...as usual.

 

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sat Jan 31, 2015, 05:05 PM

18. It's amazing that the Obama administration can tell brazen lies

 

about important issues, and there is little political fallout. Republicans hate Obama no matter what, but too many Democrats love him no matter what.

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Response to ND-Dem (Original post)

Sun Feb 1, 2015, 09:55 AM

27. How many times are we expected...

.... to believe these blatant lies?

The American worker is never going to come out ahead using a "trade" agreement with countries where the workers are paid a fraction of what Americans make.

There is no country in Asia that is suddenly going to be importing finished goods from us, PERIOD.

These are just lies to get people to accept more corporate rule.

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