If Bobby Kennedy Had Not Been Assassinated, Do You Think He Would Have Beat Nixon In 1968 ???

[WillyT]

Saying he won at the convention of course...

There's no way of knowing, but the mood of the electorate was probably shaken by the events of 1968.

Tet Offensive

LBJ refusing a second term

MLK assassinated

RFK assassinated

The fighting, both inside and outside, the Democratic Convention in Chicago...

We talk a lot about "Reagan Democrats"...

Sometimes I wonder if we should be talking Nixon Democrats.

We went safe and comfortable with Humphrey...

And lost... the passion and energy had been snuffed out for many.

And then there was George Wallace... whose running-mate was Curtis LeMay (I did not know that)

Info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968

What do you guys think?

[madokie]

1. No doubt in my mind

Bobby was talking to us and we were listening.

[Kingofalldems]

2. Yes

[bigwillq]

3. Yes (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Presuming Wallace still runs , yes

It gets dicey with Wallace out of the race.

In 72 there's no Wallace, Nixon gets all the Wallace votes, and wallops McGovern.

[Art_from_Ark]

13. I disagree about "Nixon getting all the Wallace votes"

Speaking as someone who was living in what was to become a Wallace state at the time. Before summer vacation-- May 1968-- the teacher in our class took a poll-- Who are you(r parents) going to vote for? Just about every kid raised their hand for Kennedy. Almost no one voted for Nixon or Wallace. However, in the next poll, October 1968, in a new grade but basically with the same group of students, quite a few students raised their hands for Wallace, fewer for Humphrey, and even fewer for Nixon. RFK had the charisma factor, the fact that his brother was cheated out of a full term, the fact that he wholeheartedly supported the middle and lower classes, and his promise to end the Vietnam War.

And my neighbors were also buzzing about Kennedy, but after his death a lot of them switched to Wallace.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. 1968 election-i'm rounding off

Nixon 42%
Humphrey 42%
Wallace 14%

Wallace voters were anti civil rights and pro Viet Nam War. Does it make sense if he wasn't in the race that his voters would vote for someone who was pro civil rights and anti Viet Nam War?


We can test that proposition by looking at the 1972 election with no Wallace and Nixon's Southern Strategy in full effect. Nixon gets all of Wallace's anti civil rights and pro Viet Nam War voters and then some. it's

Nixon -61%
Wallace-38%

Where did Nixon's votes come from if not from Wallace?

You can even fast forward to the 1976 election when Jimmy Carter wins the White House by carrying all of the states of the Old Confederacy save Virginia.

And then you can fast forward to the 1980 election when Ronald Reagan wins them all back, save Carter's home state of Georgia.

[Art_from_Ark]

30. Let me tell you about the 1968 election results in Arkansas

Governor-- progressive Republican Winthrop Rockefeller
US Senator-- war critic and liberal Democrat J. William Fulbright
President-- George Wallace

Remember that Wallace was, first and foremost, a Southern governor, and ostensibly a Democrat to boot. Meanwhile, the state elected two progressives for the next two highest offices on the ballot. So, based on my personal experiences, it's doubtful that the state would have gone for Nixon if it had been just Kennedy versus Nixon, or even if Wallace had been running.

[winter is coming]

5. Yes. n/t

[Jackpine Radical]

6. He might have.

For one thing, the sabotaging of the peace process might not have been as effective against him as it was against Humphrey as LBJ's heir. Hubert never campaigned against the war (despite his personal aversion to it) because of those LBJ ties, while Bobby could have united the afterglow of Camelot with the rising antiwar sentiment. if he had campaigned against the war.

[MicaelS]

7. I was 11 at the time.

The riots at the 1968 Democratic Convention turned a number of adults I knew against the Democratic party. That, and the anti-war movement in the party, also alienated other adults. Many of these adults were WWII vets and very patriotic. I think RFK's charisma might have bridged these issues, but with Humphrey there was no way.

To this I am still shocked the way the Democrats turned against LBJ, and all the good he did with Civil Rights and helping the poor. It's like all of a sudden no one gave a crap about that, it was just the war.

[hifiguy]

9. If Bobby had lived and secured the nomination

there would not have been anything like the rioting that was seen. He was THE peace candidate by June 1968.

[markpkessinger]

22. Don't forget Eugene McCarthy . . .

. . . He was the peace candidate who FIRST challenged LBJ on the war, and it was his strong polling in an upcoming Wisconsin primary that led LBJ to withdraw. It was only then that RFK and Humphrey entered the race.

[hifiguy]

23. Never. But RFK had the peace creds AND the Kennedy magic

was still a huge thing then. He had such a broad appeal that he would have easily won in 1968. RFK's decision to enter the race was one that tormented him for months but he knew McCarthy couldn't win the presidency and that he might be able to so he felt that he had little choice.

[markpkessinger]

19. LBJ did some truly great things . . .

. . . but it was ultimately his own ego that was his undoing. He is reported to have said that he refused to be "the first U.S. President to lose a war" -- an utterly useless, futile war that was klling Americans by the tens of thousands. I think it is pretty easy to understand, in light of the rate of casualties, why the war would have been foremost in voters' minds, regardless of party identification.

[hifiguy]

8. Without a doubt.

Assuming a three-way race I think he would have won very close to a majority. Even a share of the Wallace voters would have voted for RFK.

[raging moderate]

10. Yes. My mother, an old-style Republican, planned to vote for him.

She said he always spoke the truth, he obviously knew what he was talking about, and he had shown great competence in his career.

[Gman]

11. Undoubtedly.

It was only 5 years since JFK died. And Bobby had twice his charisma. And infinitely more than Nixxon.

[whathehell]

12. Absolutely, yes.

He was a straight up liberal and had the looks and the Kennedy name. I think people
felt he was, in a sense the triumphant, rightful "heir" to Jack. All so sad, given what happened. I remember it as if it was yesterday.

[alcina]

14. No

I think those who wanted Nixon in place would have found another way to make sure Kennedy did not win.

Of course, if you assume an alternative universe in which the forces that opposed Kennedy did not exist or were much less powerful, then who knows what the political climate might have been....

[olddots]

15. Alcina read my mind

The strings were pulled for Nixon .

[alcina]

20. Don't worry, olddots

I won't tell them what else I learned while probing your brain.

[longship]

27. Yet another conspiracy?

And one based on a contrafactus? Really!

What if RFK hadn't died in 1968? "Well, in my mind, there would have been a conspiracy to elect Nixon anyway."

Rubbish.

RFK was an easy vote for a vast majority of the public.

[uponit7771]

16. Nixon Cheated to win in 68... it would've been harder with JFK alive

[OKNancy]

17. He may have. I wish the SDS hadn't disrupted in Chicago

Maybe they wouldn't have gone if it was Kennedy.

( I know, I know... it was a police riot...but I was in classes with them and they went to cause trouble )

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

36. What should have SDS done? Sat it out?

I was in SDS at the time and couldn't afford to go to Chicago but it was the Democrats in the convention that backed the war that disrupted it and nominated a hack who backed it.

[blue neen]

18. Yeah, I think maybe he would have.

I'm not so sure about Nixon Democrats, though. I think it was more like so many voters (many Democratic) were disenfranchised and demoralized by both the MLK and RFK assassinations and just didn't vote.

I wonder if there are any sound statistics that would give us a better idea.

For many of us, it felt like Bobby was the one who could have brought us out of our nationwide funk. When he was shot, all hope was gone.

We will never know...

[emulatorloo]

24. Yes I've always believed he would have defeated Nixon.

[HockeyMom]

25. yes

I would have voted for him but at 20 was one year too young. I tried to go to St. Patrick's Cathedral to see him but the lines were blocks long. THAT alone shows he would have won.

[Dont call me Shirley]

26. I wish.

[fredamae]

28. Perhaps?

most of us couldn't yet vote---21 was the min voting age then. But - he would have also accomplished a lot of really good things...VN might well have been over by then...so...maybe?

[spanone]

29. yes, nobody liked nixon.

1968 was like sucker punch after sucker punch....i'm still reeling from it.

[onecent]

31. Most definitely. People were still so distraught from the JFK horrific day...

Bobby would have made this country so much better.... OMG to have lived during those times and in my late teens in 63 and living all that history was the saddest thing in the world. NOTHING has ever come close to the horrible and sad feelings of the entire country as the killings of these two brothers...at least not for me.

I am convinced and will be until the day I die that the people that were behind the Kennedy killings were also behind JFK jr's death. America went through some sad sad times then and now we are stuck with a crooked government - can do nothing about it - and the rest of the world has to be laughing and wondering why we are destroying ourselves....and each other.

[cherokeeprogressive]

32. No possible way of knowing. Only conjecture. n/t

[Kelvin Mace]

33. If they had left him on the ballot

he would have beat Nixon while dead.

[jwirr]

34. I think he would have.

[GP6971]

35. Yes. n/t