Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:52 AM May 2012

Free traders do NOT want to discuss WHY manufacturing is coming back to the USA

Remember all that yapping about how we owe it to the third world to make our workers homeless to make their lives better?

Well, that philosophy has come back to bite free traders on their ass, and you better believe they don't want to hear you talk about this.

Offshoring is wholly dependent upon moving production from America to nations where labor is cheaper and wages are paltry in comparison. In order for free trade to even exist, one populace has to be impoverished. When the nation you export your jobs to sees their people's wages rise, the game is over.

Not even Germany can beat this law of gravity. For instance, BMW and other German companies have been moving production to the United States, where wages are lower, to produce goods that were originally produced in Germany.

Here's a tip: You can shut down any discussion on free trade simply by asking, "What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor"?

That question has ceased to be hypothetical. That scenario is now happening. America is running out of sources of cheap labor. Jobs, as a result, are coming back to the USA.

So much for the free trade argument. Offshoring is unsustainable. This is being shown by history.

http://blogs.cisco.com/manufacturing/made-in-the-usa-again/

-- Wage and benefit increases of 15-20% per year at the average Chinese factory will slash China’s labor-cost advantage, reducing the savings gained from outsourcing will drop to single digits for many products.

-- Transportation, duties, supply chain risks, industrial real estate and other expenses will minimize cost savings of manufacturing in China compared to the US.

-- Automation and other productivity improvements in China will further undercut the primary attraction of outsourcing to China: access to low-cost labor.

-- Rising income levels in China will create greater demand for goods in the domestic Chinese market, driving production work for the North American market back to the US.

-- Because of rising Chinese labor costs, manufacturing of some goods will shift to other low-labor cost countries. However, compared to the US, those countries do not have the infrastructure, IP protection or political stability that is necessary to mitigate risk, which will encourage manufacturers to return to the US.


Edited to add: and jobs ARE in fact coming back, because of this:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-manufacturing-expands-at-fastest-pace-in-10-months-as-orders-hiring-and-production-rise/2012/05/01/gIQAs4R2tT_story.html
The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, said Tuesday that its index of manufacturing activity reached 54.8 in April. That’s the highest level since June and up from 53.4 the previous month. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The report, which exceeded analysts’ expectations, led investors to shift money out of bonds and into stocks. The flurry of stock buying put the Dow Jones industrial average on track for its highest close in more than four years.

.............

A measure of employment in the ISM’s survey rose to a 10-month high. This showed that factories are still hiring at a solid pace.
79 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Free traders do NOT want to discuss WHY manufacturing is coming back to the USA (Original Post) Zalatix May 2012 OP
"In order for free trade to even exist, one populace has to be impoverished." HiPointDem May 2012 #1
Yes yes yes. It's the labor arbitrage Populist_Prole May 2012 #18
"Free trade is all about the (labor) arbitrage." Including US trade with Canada or Australia? pampango May 2012 #33
You're mixing the idea of trade with "free trade". girl gone mad May 2012 #66
Prison labor will solve the repukes problem with increasing global wage increases. Elwood P Dowd May 2012 #2
Prison and the under sixteen year population. Repukes nirvana - free slaves. geckosfeet May 2012 #3
Try Googling "Top 10 Corporate Tax Loopholes" and you learn "The Rest of the Story" FreakinDJ May 2012 #4
true. labor & tax arbitrage. HiPointDem May 2012 #55
H. Ross Perot was right James48 May 2012 #5
i always hear how we have to be competitive. ejpoeta May 2012 #8
+1 uponit7771 May 2012 #10
Ross Perot was a free-trade monopolist. n/t Uncle Joe May 2012 #58
China Is Already Losing DallasNE May 2012 #6
Africa has horrible infrastructure and some very spotty governments, I guess. Systematic Chaos May 2012 #7
Not for the Southern Countries but of course they'll run out of head room too in prices uponit7771 May 2012 #11
Good point. Mexico is much closer. treestar May 2012 #9
Apple Does Some Stuff In Mexico DallasNE May 2012 #23
They want us to be more like Mexico treestar May 2012 #24
I worked for a company that made phones. CrispyQ May 2012 #14
Mexico has actual labor laws nadinbrzezinski May 2012 #17
to your last question shanti May 2012 #63
Mexico wasn't passed up-- they just became 'too expensive' early in the process. Marr May 2012 #69
You've never dealt with the issue treestar May 2012 #12
Why do you think that is? jp11 May 2012 #20
Why didn't their wages go up? treestar May 2012 #25
As I predicted, you're not even dealing with the topic at hand. Zalatix May 2012 #26
Why is it that cheaper labor is used? treestar May 2012 #30
With tariffs, I can move to the midwest, or pass living wage laws to help the midwest Zalatix May 2012 #39
Get what? treestar May 2012 #44
I run a business, I don't fanatically try to save. Zalatix May 2012 #51
An economist like Paul Krugman would answer: this is great! eallen May 2012 #13
Paul Krugman has allegedly repented his Neoliberal ways. You're massively out-of-date. nt Romulox May 2012 #15
Got a link to show Paul Krugman now opposes free trade? Nye Bevan May 2012 #21
"...there is a short-run case for protectionism" Paul Krugman, February 1, 2009. Romulox May 2012 #27
"Everything I’ve just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap..." Nye Bevan May 2012 #40
"...a lot of 'yes, but!' type nonsense," Romulox May 2012 #45
From a Paul Krugman "expert" who isn't up to speed with the man's work from 2009, no less. Romulox May 2012 #46
Here ya go, a few examples Zalatix May 2012 #28
Not nearly to the extent you think. eallen May 2012 #62
It's a far cry from what Krugman used to say. Zalatix May 2012 #68
Offshoring was not about comparative advantage. Zalatix May 2012 #32
Excellent post, Zalatix. Bookmarked. Love your excerpts and (quite liberal) scenario: pampango May 2012 #16
The problem for your theory is that jobs will LEAVE the third world and come back here. Zalatix May 2012 #29
True, but they will have built up a domestic market that they did not have before. pampango May 2012 #36
Correction: They couldn't have done this without sucking us dry. Zalatix May 2012 #37
China is an export-oriented economy as is Germany (which is much more export-oriented pampango May 2012 #49
It'll be a long, long time before they stop becoming export-dependent. Zalatix May 2012 #57
Utopian capitalism is a tough sell, these days. nt Romulox May 2012 #31
Just responding to the "utopian" scenario in the OP, my good Romulox. n/t pampango May 2012 #34
Right, but the so-called "utopian" scenario in the OP was MOCKING your ideology-- Romulox May 2012 #35
It did. Zalatix May 2012 #38
I don't see "mocking" in the OP nor did many others, but thanks for coming to Zalatix' rescue. pampango May 2012 #54
Right above your post Zalatix confirms my interpretation. Is this feigned confusion, or real? nt Romulox May 2012 #56
"What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor" mathematic May 2012 #19
Good news. This shows that free trade works. Nye Bevan May 2012 #22
What... Marr May 2012 #70
A group of energy analysts did a study that predicted that because of Obama's energy policies, bluestate10 May 2012 #41
What happens is, labor world wide gains power against corporate supremacy. Uncle Joe May 2012 #42
A one world Government? How many did you knock back to come to THAT conclusion? Zalatix May 2012 #43
When global labor; become equalized as per your OP and it gains power, Uncle Joe May 2012 #48
A global government would incite a global civil war instead. Or global fascism. Zalatix May 2012 #59
1. A global government would be larger than any national government. Uncle Joe May 2012 #60
Nice pipe dream. You won't even get that far. We've been trying and it has failed repeatedly. Zalatix May 2012 #61
It took World War I to bring about the League of Nations, it took World War II to create Uncle Joe May 2012 #65
The so-called global powers do not have the influence to force Asia to join. Zalatix May 2012 #67
No nation needs to be forced. Uncle Joe May 2012 #71
And if China and the Middle East reject said government, which they will Zalatix May 2012 #72
Then it's almost global in which case humanity will need to learn to walk before it can run. Uncle Joe May 2012 #73
You fool nobody. Not a single person is persuaded by this type of schlock. nt Romulox May 2012 #76
Please come back when you actually have a legitimate rebuttal to my argument. nt Uncle Joe May 2012 #78
First you need to have an argument. Zalatix May 2012 #79
Um, in *reality* that happens, or was it some sort of fever-dream? Romulox May 2012 #47
Reality is the "Law of diminishing returns." Uncle Joe May 2012 #50
So hard to produce a quippy response to gibberish! nt Romulox May 2012 #52
He's been watching too much Star Trek lately. Zalatix May 2012 #75
He's gone too far now. It's obviously a put-on. Not subtle, *at all*. nt Romulox May 2012 #77
Grover Norquist had a really scary response to that question Taverner May 2012 #53
Years ago I said jobs would come back when we were impoverished enough lunatica May 2012 #64
Piracy is another reason jmowreader May 2012 #74
 

HiPointDem

(20,729 posts)
1. "In order for free trade to even exist, one populace has to be impoverished."
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:04 AM
May 2012

Free trade is all about the arbitrage.

It made sense when you had to move goods on camels and junks, when it took months, when there were unknown worlds and unknown technologies.

It no longer does. Now it's all about arbitraging labor. Build one locale up, tear another down, make a profit on the difference (since the traders know where the production is moving and where it's leaving before the population does.)

Populist_Prole

(5,364 posts)
18. Yes yes yes. It's the labor arbitrage
Wed May 2, 2012, 12:54 PM
May 2012

The new way for corporations to make a pile is seeking economic rents. Labor arbitrage is but one way. Taking advantage of lax or non-existent protective regulations are another. Having a dictatorship for a government to keep employees, compliant, shall we say is yet another.

All this talk of improving the lot of the 3rd world's denizens is just corporate PR fluff. They'll wring every last bit of what they can from those people and move on to another group.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
33. "Free trade is all about the (labor) arbitrage." Including US trade with Canada or Australia?
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:41 PM
May 2012

Or France with Germany or the UK? We have "free trade" with those countries as does France with Germany and the UK.

I'm not sure if you are saying that all trade is based on labor arbitrage; just "free trade" (with the 20 countries with whom we have "free trade agreements&quot is all about arbitrage; or trade (only "free trade"?) between rich and poor countries is all about arbitrage?

girl gone mad

(20,634 posts)
66. You're mixing the idea of trade with "free trade".
Wed May 2, 2012, 07:31 PM
May 2012

Trade between nations is good and will always exist in one fashion or another.

Our current "free trade" agreements are where the labor and regulatory arbitrage comes into play.

Elwood P Dowd

(11,443 posts)
2. Prison labor will solve the repukes problem with increasing global wage increases.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:10 AM
May 2012

Put a few million more Americans in private prisons, pay them a dollar a day, and boom! Problem solved.

geckosfeet

(9,644 posts)
3. Prison and the under sixteen year population. Repukes nirvana - free slaves.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:32 AM
May 2012

Just have the poor reproduce in areas where there are no real jobs or opportunities. They will be at each others throats fighting over who gets to push that button for 7$ an hour for 12 hour shifts. The losers go to jail and work for the cost of housing - (we had to start charging them back for the meals and pinstripes).

 

FreakinDJ

(17,644 posts)
4. Try Googling "Top 10 Corporate Tax Loopholes" and you learn "The Rest of the Story"
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:42 AM
May 2012

Cheap Labor is ONLY 1/2 the equation.

You thinking too small when your looking towards the corporate greed that brought you "Free Trade". Not only do they get cheap labor but through numerous loopholes they avoid paying 90% of their taxes too

James48

(4,435 posts)
5. H. Ross Perot was right
Wed May 2, 2012, 07:33 AM
May 2012

In the 1992 debates, H. Ross Perot got that part exactly right.


PEROT:"If you're paying $12, $13, $14 an hour for factory workers and you can move your factory South of the border, pay a dollar an hour for labor, hire young -- let's assume you've been in business for a long time and you've got a mature work force -- pay a dollar an hour for your labor, have no health care -- that's the most expensive single element in making a car -- have no environmental controls, no pollution controls and no retirement, and you don't care about anything but making money, there will be a giant sucking sound going south.

So we -- if the people send me to Washington the first thing I'll do is study that 2,000-page agreement and make sure it's a two-way street.

One last part here -- I decided i was dumb and didn't understand it so I called the Who's Who of the folks who've been around it and I said, "Why won't everybody go South?" They say, "It'd be disruptive." I said, "For how long?" I finally got them up from 12 to 15 years. And I said, "well, how does it stop being disruptive?" And that is when their jobs come up from a dollar an hour to six dollars an hour, and ours go down to six dollars an hour, and then it's leveled again. But in the meantime, you've wrecked the country with these kinds of deals. We've got to cut it out.


Yep.

Only it isn't when Mexico is up to $6 an hour. Now we have competition with smaller Asian nations, who are at $1 a day. When we reach $1 a day, we'll all be competitive again.

ejpoeta

(8,933 posts)
8. i always hear how we have to be competitive.
Wed May 2, 2012, 09:12 AM
May 2012

so you want to work for 25 cents an hour? of course not. then you don't want to be competitive. I wish people would think past the bumper sticker.

DallasNE

(7,402 posts)
6. China Is Already Losing
Wed May 2, 2012, 07:34 AM
May 2012

Some of the apparel manufacturing to places like Vietnam and Pakistan. Something that has always surprised me is why Mexico was bypassed in the offshore effort and why Africa has been left out as well.

Systematic Chaos

(8,601 posts)
7. Africa has horrible infrastructure and some very spotty governments, I guess.
Wed May 2, 2012, 07:58 AM
May 2012

Probably not enough stability or good enough roads to make it worthwhile?

treestar

(82,383 posts)
9. Good point. Mexico is much closer.
Wed May 2, 2012, 09:22 AM
May 2012

China is so damned far away. I've always been flummoxed that the transport costs don't trump any benefits.

And for people who are so upset about illegal immigration from Mexico, one would think they'd be on the bandwagon for the factories to be in Mexico. Then the Mexicans can at least "steal" jobs from home rather than coming here to do it. /slight sarcasm.



DallasNE

(7,402 posts)
23. Apple Does Some Stuff In Mexico
Wed May 2, 2012, 01:48 PM
May 2012

And Polaris recently moved a plant from Wisconsin to Mexico but there just isn't that much there. Now China does educate their people so that could be one key difference -- same with India. Perhaps this is why Republicans want to defund education here. They can get educated people much cheaper in China and India so why bother spending good money on education here.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
24. They want us to be more like Mexico
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:11 PM
May 2012

So they can import to both us and Mexicans cheap stuff from China!

CrispyQ

(36,457 posts)
14. I worked for a company that made phones.
Wed May 2, 2012, 10:16 AM
May 2012

They moved the assembly of the phone part of the production to Mexico. Oh, it was going to save so much money! They never made back the money they lost on the numerous things they never thought about.

One year, at the end of the year, a truck shipment of phones coming from Mexico to the US was hijacked. Eventually it was found & returned, but the sales department couldn't make year end sales because there was nothing to ship!

Sometimes the shipment of product from China to Mexico would not be on time, so the workers in Mexico were paid to clean the building. This happened so often, that we laughed that they had the cleanest working facility on the planet.

They hired a director who didn't know Spanish, so they also had to hire an interpreter for him. The special insurance policies they had to get to cover them for things like hijacked shipments were unbelievable. And the list went on & on. I asked why they didn't just close shop & bring it back to the States. "It will be worth it eventually."

~edited for clairty

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
17. Mexico has actual labor laws
Wed May 2, 2012, 12:45 PM
May 2012

And it wasn't...maquiladoras are all over the northern tier of the country.

 

Marr

(20,317 posts)
69. Mexico wasn't passed up-- they just became 'too expensive' early in the process.
Wed May 2, 2012, 10:51 PM
May 2012

As I remember it, Mexico was one of the initial outsourcing targets. Then things shifted to China, then India, now Vietnam and Pakistan. The whole process is like a snail, leaving it's slimy path behind it.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
12. You've never dealt with the issue
Wed May 2, 2012, 09:27 AM
May 2012

of those same American workers always choosing the product of lower price. That's the only reason this has happened. People can guy things for cheaper, and they do it. They are the ones who don't care about your workers (themselves). If they would just pay the going rate for American labor, there would be no issue.

jp11

(2,104 posts)
20. Why do you think that is?
Wed May 2, 2012, 01:11 PM
May 2012

Could it be that workers haven't had a real wage increase in decades? Could it be they see rising costs on all fronts and have to make their money go farther as the value of the dollar weakens?

"The only reason" BS, there were many reasons why it happened and people buying cheap crap when they are losing jobs, not getting raises and seeing the dollar buy less and less isn't the magic bullet. Laws/regulations that favored companies outsourcing jobs, moving them overseas etc all played a part in this

Free trade pretty much sealed the deal about not caring where things were made telling people that some jobs would go and you'd pay less for things while opening markets for our products so we'd have more work. But it of course was a lie all we got for the jobs that left were cheap goods who would want our products when they can make a knockoff for a fraction of the cost and our goods were taxed to prevent them from having a chance at being competitive yet we let theirs in for nothing.

I'd add that it has been 20+ years since I used to see ads about 'look for the union label', 'buy american', 'made in america' etc then they faded away a few years before NAFTA, it wasn't until very recently I've seen anything close to that message.

People's ignorance certainly played a part but it was far from the only reason.



treestar

(82,383 posts)
25. Why didn't their wages go up?
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:16 PM
May 2012

If they weren't going up, then why is it cheaper to make stuff in the third world? Their wages are still much higher.

The finger wagging should be at the people who go to Wal-Mart.

People choose to pay the lower price for the products of others, while thinking everyone should be wiling to pay top dollar for what they make.

People could stay home from Wal-Mart and choose to buy from Americans. They don't do it because they are trying to save a buck. Everybody wants to save every two cents they can so long as they are the buyers. Then they want to sell their labor at top dollar and complain that others can't afford it.

Even without the bogeyman free trade, there was always, outsourcing within the U.S. and the big company coming in to town and shutting down the small businesses. There is thus only one real issue here - if you want your wages to stay up, pay for others' wages to stay up. The average American consumer doesn't care that it comes from where it comes from, just that it costs a dollar or two less. Then they wonder, when it happens to them, how unfair it all is.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
26. As I predicted, you're not even dealing with the topic at hand.
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:28 PM
May 2012

What is going to happen to your free trade fantasy when there's nowhere left to look for cheaper labor?

treestar

(82,383 posts)
30. Why is it that cheaper labor is used?
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:35 PM
May 2012

Because it lowers the price.

If a person can deal in large volume, they can undercut the local businesses (see Walmart). But who is it that allows that to happen? The buyers. If you are buying, you want to spend as little as possible. Finger wag at those who are always trying to save a buck and don't even care if it puts their fellow Americans/townspeople out of a job.

But then watch them think what they sell should never be undercut.

If I have a lemonade stand and it costs me $40 a day to run it -supplies and labor - I then try to sell it for as much as I can get. But competitors will come along and sell for less, if they can get the product to cost less. I then can't just say - well I need $20 per glass of lemonade in order to cover my expenses. The buyer won't care. They'll go to where they can buy it for $.50 per glass.

You're railing day in and day out about something that won't be changed, like the sun coming up in the west. Human nature just is what it is. If product X can be obtained from Seller Y at a cheaper price, people buy from Seller Y. They only complain when they are the Seller.

All the Tariffs in the world won't help, because you will then find that people in the south or midwest can work cheaper.

How many times has a big Walmart or chain come in and driven the locals out of business due to the fact they can do volume and import from some cheaper part of the state/country/world?


 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
39. With tariffs, I can move to the midwest, or pass living wage laws to help the midwest
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:12 PM
May 2012

Do you get it yet?

treestar

(82,383 posts)
44. Get what?
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:38 PM
May 2012

How do you get people to pay higher prices? Even if you have your tariffs, it will happen within the U.S.

How do you stop the problem of people losing jobs when a big chain moves in?

In short, how do you convince people not to look for the lowest price all the time? How do you convince the sun to come up in the west?

If you ever ran a business, you'd try to save on supplies and labor, too. It's very easy when you are sitting outside of that to just declare the laws of human nature should be suspended.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
51. I run a business, I don't fanatically try to save.
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:50 PM
May 2012

Quality also matters. I pay good money for good quality. Got any other misconceptions you'd like to push?

Your argument about big chains moving in is off-topic. It has nothing to do with moving jobs OUT of the country.

Your argument about moving jobs from one part of the country to the other is not relevant, either - if I move my jobs from California to Georgia but there is a NATIONWIDE living wage law, there is no benefit. If tariffs make it too expensive to move overseas, I'll simply stay where I'm at. You have no argument against this. Your only comeback is that other nations need to stay poor so businesses can have somewhere to move in case there are no tariffs: and in the OP, I have cited for you proof that this ship is also about to sail.

This is why you're wrong about equating offshoring with the sun coming up in the west: it is not inevitable, and it can be stopped.

Offshoring can be stopped with:
1) Tariffs (and this has worked; ever wonder why China imports so little from America?)
2) Currency devaluation (which offshoring does, in fact, cause)
3) Cheap labor becoming unavailable (a trend which is emerging now)

Germany has stopped offshoring with a number of stealth protectionist measures as well.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/212461-what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-germany-about-managing-its-trade-deficit

There are SO MANY WAYS to get around your "laws of human nature" that you really have no credible response to this.

eallen

(2,953 posts)
13. An economist like Paul Krugman would answer: this is great!
Wed May 2, 2012, 09:48 AM
May 2012

First, no economist expects <i>any</i> comparative advantage to last forever. And similarly, no business expects any business model to last long. It's simply mistaken to say that some business trend -- whether selling wool to the French or whaling for oil -- is beneficial only if it lasts forever. Economics is about constant change, and economic development is path dependent. America would be a much poorer nation today had it not developed its whaling industry in previous centuries. Anyone then who had suggested it shouldn't be done because it was unsustainable would have been wrong. (Today, not needing whale oil to light your desk, you can argue it shouldn't have been done for ethical reasons. At the time, slavery loomed as much the larger issue. As nations get richer, they're able to turn ever more refined ethical lens on their economic practices.)

Second, both the advantages of offshoring manufacturing and the advantages of bringing it back can be real. Sometimes, even when it occurs <i>at the same time.</i> Because it's not all the same manufacturing, and not all the same shores. A parallel example is oil imports and exports. There are plenty of cases where an oil exporting nation, like Canada, also imports some oil. Why? Because there are different grades and types of oil, because refineries are different and don't move around, and there are different markets for the refined products.

Lastly, don't overlook the economic miracle behind your complaint. Forty years ago, any foreign aide or international development policy that promised to lift much of the impoverished world to the point where their income was this high and growing would have been viewed as next-to-impossible. Too miraculous to be thinkable. In fact, the last forty years of development policy history has been one of continual disappointment. Trade is the <i>only</i> thing that has succeeded there.


Romulox

(25,960 posts)
27. "...there is a short-run case for protectionism" Paul Krugman, February 1, 2009.
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:29 PM
May 2012

Best to slink off without comment, Nye Bevan. Anything else will be a lot of "yes, but!" type nonsense.


Now ask, how would this change if each country adopted protectionist measures that “contained” the effects of fiscal expansion within its domestic economy? Then everyone would adopt a more expansionary policy — and the world would get closer to full employment than it would have otherwise. Yes, trade would be more distorted, which is a cost; but the distortion caused by a severely underemployed world economy would be reduced. And as the late James Tobin liked to say, it takes a lot of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun gap.

Let’s be clear: this isn’t an argument for beggaring thy neighbor, it’s an argument that protectionism can make the world as a whole better off. It’s a second-best argument — coordinated policy is the first-best answer. But it needs to be taken seriously.

What’s the counter-argument? Don’t say that any theory which has good things to say about protectionism must be wrong: that’s theology, not economics.


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/protectionism-and-stimulus-wonkish/

Nye Bevan

(25,406 posts)
40. "Everything I’ve just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap..."
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:22 PM
May 2012

"Everything I’ve just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap; that’s where we are now, but it won’t be the normal situation."

And it's not the case today (the article you linked to was from early 2009).

eallen

(2,953 posts)
62. Not nearly to the extent you think.
Wed May 2, 2012, 06:09 PM
May 2012

A temporary tariff in response to currency manipulation is hardly a general argument for protectionist policies.


 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
32. Offshoring was not about comparative advantage.
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:37 PM
May 2012

It was about global labor arbitrage.

We would have been much better off with tariffs and forcing goods sold here, to be produced here.

We wouldn't have even HAD the job market malaises that we had from the 1980s to now.

There were no advantages to offshoring. Tons of people lost their jobs and did not get better ones, wages fell, the cost of living went up.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
16. Excellent post, Zalatix. Bookmarked. Love your excerpts and (quite liberal) scenario:
Wed May 2, 2012, 12:37 PM
May 2012

“What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor"?

First of all, the world should be so fortunate. I can't imagine a more liberal scenario than the world running out of cheap labor (= poor people). If you think this scenario “has ceased to be hypothetical. That scenario is now happening.” more power to you. I sincerely hope you are right.

Two answers to your question/scenario: 1) Whatever policy or policies bring about such a scenario I will express my appreciation for those who were responsible for them regardless of whether or not they were “my” policies. Such an equitable distribution of global income would be a wonderful thing. (One can assume that conservatives won't be happy about this since an equitable distribution of income (nationally or globally) is at the bottom of their list of goals; quite the opposite.)

2) What would happen to “free trading” if there were no more sources of cheap labor? My guess it would continue the way it does today between the US and Canada/EU/Australia and between countries in the EU. Our biggest trading partners in 2011 were the EU ($635 billion) and Canada ($597 billion). (China was next at $502 billion then Mexico at $460 billion.) That probably will not change if we “run out of sources of cheap labor.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
29. The problem for your theory is that jobs will LEAVE the third world and come back here.
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:35 PM
May 2012

That hurts the third world, in case you haven't put it all together yet.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
36. True, but they will have built up a domestic market that they did not have before.
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:48 PM
May 2012

We helped build up the European economy after WWII with trade (FDR's idea) and they survived quite nicely even though their wage levels increased dramatically over the decades. Largely this is due to the strong domestic economy that they created in the post-war years.

The Chinese economy can orient itself more to domestic consumption when exports decline. They could not have done this without middle class that their economy has generated while it was export-oriented.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
37. Correction: They couldn't have done this without sucking us dry.
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:10 PM
May 2012

China is not at the point of a strong domestic economy. That's the problem with export-dependent economies - China can't prosper in the foreseeable future if their exports dry up.

The problem here is that the cost of outsourcing to China is going to eliminate them as an outsourcing destination before they get to that mythical domestic consumption-based economy.

America, on the other hand, doesn't rely much on exports. We don't export nearly as much as we import. Countries can tell us they don't want our stuff (if you look at our exports vs imports it's clear that they already are) and we'll go on.

If we stop importing it ain't us that'll hurt.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
49. China is an export-oriented economy as is Germany (which is much more export-oriented
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:46 PM
May 2012

than China). In Germany exports (€1.3 trillion in 2011) are about 50% of the economy (€2.6 trillion). In China exports ($1.9 trillion) are about 22% of the economy ($7.7 trillion).

If China does as well as Germany they will be fine. Both Germany, Japan and other countries had to make transition from low-wage export economies ("made in Japan" used to mean "junk&quot to high-wage economies. Will China make the same transition or implode? I don't know. They have a much worse government than Germany and Japan had after th war. For the sake of the Chinese I hope the adapt.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
57. It'll be a long, long time before they stop becoming export-dependent.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:11 PM
May 2012

Count on that. In 2008 China lost 20 million jobs at the drop of a hat because of our recession. That's a huge vulnerability, one that will take at LEAST a generation to fix. China doesn't have nearly that long. Before that time passes, we will suffer either import price miserable inflation (as opposed to import price hyperinflation) or a domestic currency stumble* (or collapse)... and their great miracle will explode in their faces. The price of imports will go up without tariffs. BEFORE China can become immune to it. It's already happening - that's why we're bringing the jobs back.

Another problem is racing to kill China before that: their self-destructive environmental policy, or lack thereof. Your precious offshoring phenomenon which you defend so much, has also been responsible for encouraging China to pollute their air and water so thoroughly that China is facing a major water crisis. Cite: http://articles.cnn.com/2010-09-13/world/china.water.crisis_1_water-shortages-water-supplies-drinking-water?_s=PM:WORLD. Sure, your arguments have made China richer, but they're also making them quite a lot sicker. Happy yet? This is relevant, also: because it will brutally kill China's economy in a way that will make World War II pale in comparison.

I'm sure you have something to say about the fact that if China had strong anti-pollution laws to start with, we would not have moved our jobs there in the first place. Or do you?

Oh, and you mentioned Japan. Well, Japan transitioned, alright - their high-value goods export-based economy caused the Yen to skyrocket in value. Ever heard of the "Lost Decade"? It started because of that. Oh yeah, and I forgot... they also outsourced a lot of jobs overseas. You bring up Japan but I expect you'll orphan this argument, too, after I remind you of this: postwar Japan had employment for life. Post-free-trade Japan got rid of that. Job stability is crap in Japan, and now they have a whole new generation of men who have little hopes of achieving what their fathers did. These are called herbivore men: http://articles.cnn.com/2009-06-05/world/japan.herbivore.men_1_japanese-men-men-and-women-girlfriend?_s=PM:WORLD

Hmmmm. Funny, that. Japan's culture of lifetime employment transitioned to employee expendability and increased unemployment and hopelessness for the working class after they started outsourcing their jobs. Do you have anything to say about that?

Oh and did I forget to mention that Japan was one of those war-wrecked economies that you spoke of?

Oh, and you also mentioned GERMANY, yet another economy recovering from the ruins of World War II. Germany is starting to move production to cheaper labor countries: such as the United States. BMW has put factories here, to get around their unions in Germany. Germany also has some interesting and sneaky trade barriers, too. You'd be bouncing off the walls with rage if we had these trade barriers: http://seekingalpha.com/article/212461-what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-germany-about-managing-its-trade-deficit

Hope this helps.

* that's happening as we speak, as evidenced by the skyrocketing price of gold

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
35. Right, but the so-called "utopian" scenario in the OP was MOCKING your ideology--
Wed May 2, 2012, 03:47 PM
May 2012

that is to say, your brand of Utopian capitalism can only benefit the workers of the United States AFTER we have been impoverished to the extent of the most marginalized workers of the world.

I don't know if that escaped you?

pampango

(24,692 posts)
54. I don't see "mocking" in the OP nor did many others, but thanks for coming to Zalatix' rescue.
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:54 PM
May 2012

I wondered why he posted such an OP.

Perhaps "mocking" is in the eye of the beholder.

"Here's a tip: You can shut down any discussion on free trade simply by asking, "What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor"?

That question has ceased to be hypothetical. That scenario is now happening. America is running out of sources of cheap labor. (With an excerpt regarding rising wages in China.) Jobs, as a result, are coming back to the USA.

So much for the free trade argument. Offshoring is unsustainable. This is being shown by history.

and jobs ARE in fact coming back, because of this:" (With an excerpt to back this statement up.)

Perhaps this is 10 dimensional "mocking" that is too intellectual for me.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
19. "What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor"
Wed May 2, 2012, 01:00 PM
May 2012

I'd take a moment to celebrate the greatest humanitarian advancement in history. That the BILLIONS of people currently living off of less than $400 per year would have enough income that they wouldn't be cheap labor is such an unimaginably positive outcome that I'd be willing to compromise on ALL my political/economic positions except global warming (which, left unchecked, could reverse any economic gains) and liberty (without which economic prosperity means nothing).

Nye Bevan

(25,406 posts)
22. Good news. This shows that free trade works.
Wed May 2, 2012, 01:18 PM
May 2012

Several DUers have criticized Obama for not renegotiating NAFTA, and for signing several new free trade pacts, but I like that Obama is a free-trader.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
41. A group of energy analysts did a study that predicted that because of Obama's energy policies,
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:24 PM
May 2012

the USA will have a large energy cost advantage over any other industrial nation, including China, and surprisingly Russia. That advantage was projected to be so large that it dwafted labor costs. The trend that you wrote about could be the tip of the iceberg. On an aside, I purchased good quality china from Neiman Marcus today at reasonable prices. Some large retailers seem to be getting the message that their past purchasing decisions were no only hurting american workers, but ultimately them.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
42. What happens is, labor world wide gains power against corporate supremacy.
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:32 PM
May 2012

Until that point happens we; being the people and nations will be played against one another.

Your OP is also a good argument for world government.

Thanks for the thread, Zalatix.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
48. When global labor; become equalized as per your OP and it gains power,
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:43 PM
May 2012

mega-corporations will more easily influence individual nations to pass arbitrary law that either punishes competitor nations with protective tariffs, or draconian laws to convert it's populace to increased prison slave labor.

As I posted on another thread of yours the national model of governments increases the chances of war as human history gives more than ample evidence of.

A global government would be more difficult for mega-corporations to dominate as a means to increase their own profit, that type of government could also insure uniformity in trade law.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
59. A global government would incite a global civil war instead. Or global fascism.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:19 PM
May 2012

Here's why.

A global government means fewer top-level politicians for mega-corporations to bribe. Instead of 300+ sovereign leaders and Parliament-equivalents, they only need to bribe 1 sovereign leader and 1 Parliament-equivalent. This is why corporations find it easier to deal with the Chinese bureaucracy than the American one: the Chinese concentrate all power at the top.

In a global government the Chinese would have a say in America's reproductive rights. That's called a one-child policy for everyone! Women in America, bend over because here it comes!

And then the Middle East gets to vote on religious freedom. And whether women get to drive.

Oh, but you say the one world Government wouldn't allow such things? Then you better be ready to go to war with the Middle East, or China. You're going to get your nose bloodied trying to enforce Western values on the Middle East and you can absolutely count on a nuclear war if you try it with China.

In short you won't even get to a one world Government, at least not until a global nuclear winter has passed.

IOW: your argument is insane.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
60. 1. A global government would be larger than any national government.
Wed May 2, 2012, 05:38 PM
May 2012

2. The formation of any viable global government would require ratification from the nations of the world, each nation would be required to hold a national referendum which could be internationally monitored.

3. Each nation has its' own national laws as I posted on your other thread we don't need to live like Iran and they don't need to live like us, the same holds true for China or any other nation. We have a national government but each state has their own laws as well.

4. A global constitution spelling out the checks, balances, Bill of Rights, international and national rights and it will either meet approval from the nations of the world or it won't.

What's insane is the belief that in an ever shrinking world of resources based on the every nation for it self model with each nations' citizens clamoring and demanding for more, will not eventually sink in to World War III.

In short your final sentence before you accused my argument of representing insanity is the inevitable fulmination of insanity.



"In short you won't even get to a one world Government, at least not until a global nuclear winter has passed.

IOW: your argument is insane."






 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
61. Nice pipe dream. You won't even get that far. We've been trying and it has failed repeatedly.
Wed May 2, 2012, 06:05 PM
May 2012

The League of Nations failed, and the United Nations is not making much headroom. Remember the Kyoto Accord? Progress beyond where we're at now WILL lead to total war. You would have to use force to get the Middle East or China to ratify that bullshit. China and the Middle East won't voluntarily ratify it. Not a chance. Game over. Have a nice day!

You'd be better off talking directly to the people of each country and trying to form an alliance of workers' parties. That's something else I've suggested.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
65. It took World War I to bring about the League of Nations, it took World War II to create
Wed May 2, 2012, 07:30 PM
May 2012

the climate for the United Nations.

The United Nations is stronger than the League of Nations ever was and is closer to being a world government of sorts, Kyoto was killed because of corporate power.

I would hope we don't need to go through World War III before humanity takes the next logical step and creates a global government.

You and I are now directly talking to the people of the world and as the world's wages equalize per your OP and global labor gains power, "forming an alliance of workers parties" will become all the easier.



"Here's a tip: You can shut down any discussion on free trade simply by asking, "What happens when you run out of sources of cheap labor"?

That question has ceased to be hypothetical. That scenario is now happening. America is running out of sources of cheap labor. Jobs, as a result, are coming back to the USA.



Today the United States and West are the preeminent global powers and as such we could/would have great influence in shaping a world government.

If as your previous post states that world government can't possibly come into being unless we go through a nuclear winter first, then all bets in regards to us having influence, not to mention simple survivability are off.




 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
67. The so-called global powers do not have the influence to force Asia to join.
Wed May 2, 2012, 10:36 PM
May 2012

You want a one world Government, you can automatically count China and the Middle East out. It ain't gonna work.

I would want out because it is impossible to create such a Government without it being controlled by the corporations.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
71. No nation needs to be forced.
Wed May 2, 2012, 11:11 PM
May 2012

China and the Middle East can hold their own referendums on deciding whether to participate in the drafting, ratification and joining of said government.

Mega corporations control the vast majority of state and national governments now aided in large part because they can pit one nation or peoples against the other.

We're living under a corporate controlled government now.

 

Zalatix

(8,994 posts)
72. And if China and the Middle East reject said government, which they will
Thu May 3, 2012, 12:21 AM
May 2012

then your government isn't global.

And right now I can escape to Africa to get away from corporations.

Uncle Joe

(58,349 posts)
73. Then it's almost global in which case humanity will need to learn to walk before it can run.
Thu May 3, 2012, 02:06 AM
May 2012

Last edited Thu May 3, 2012, 11:29 AM - Edit history (1)

As for escaping to Africa, good luck with that, but I believe if the mega-corporations control the major nationalistic power centers of the globe and they do, ultimately you won't be able to escape to anywhere.

I believe the best way to check that mega-corporate power is to create a new model of government with global authority.

Having said that, I'm not under any illusions that this will happen overnight but I do see it as logically inevitable for the sake of not just humanity's long term chances of survival but other forms of life on the planet as well.

 

Taverner

(55,476 posts)
53. Grover Norquist had a really scary response to that question
Wed May 2, 2012, 04:54 PM
May 2012

Something to the effect of - we need to cow them back into poverty

lunatica

(53,410 posts)
64. Years ago I said jobs would come back when we were impoverished enough
Wed May 2, 2012, 06:12 PM
May 2012

I just really thought it would take much longer. There's a hell of a lot of poorer people than us on this planet to be exploited.

jmowreader

(50,553 posts)
74. Piracy is another reason
Thu May 3, 2012, 02:25 AM
May 2012

If you in your nice American design studio create a new and innovative product then farm the manufacturing out to China, you will in a short period of time find near-exact clones of your new and innovative product available for sale in at least the Orient. This is why Farouk Shami, who runs a hair products company called Farouk Systems, is currently moving all his manufacturing capacity to Houston. And I think it's a major driver in anyone pulling manufacturing back to the US.

The real advantages China has over the US are their labor laws and environmental protection laws, specifically the almost complete lack of either.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Free traders do NOT want ...