Polls have Obama and Romney in a photo finish in Florida. I don't believe it.

[Baitball Blogger]

Here's the link for anyone who wants to dissect the flaws:

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-05-03/news/os-presidential-poll-florida-20120503_1_florida-voters-obama-and-romney-snapshot-of-voter-preferences

Does anybody else have polls for the state? This is one of the first I've seen in the paper. I thought we should keep track of them. I suspect this is going to be a bigger problem for the Christian Right than many on the Right are willing to admit.

On edit: This is reposted because I deleted the first one thinking I had posted it in the wrong forum.

[still_one]

1. The polls also show Obama slightly ahead in Ohio, and ahead big time in Pa. I wouldn't give too

much confidence in any polls

It is still a long way off, and it not only depends on turnout and independents, but also how much voting get suppressed in some key states

[russspeakeasy]

2. I don't have a scientific poll, but I can tell you this;

the hatred for our Prez is real and wide spread in this state. Listening to conversations in bars and restaurants and anywhere else politics comes up, the hatred is palpable.
It's ugly, really, really ugly.

[Baitball Blogger]

9. It always was ugly.

But they don't have much to brag about, do they? The Florida legislature is Republican controlled, the governor is Republican. They turned down federal work programs. Who can they blame but themselves?

[russspeakeasy]

15. I agree, but they don't see it that way.

They make shit up, "doesn't bother me that he's black, but his damn policies are wrecking this country". I don't hang around in honky tonks, these are respectable places that cater to middle income adults.
Maybe I'm more sensitive to it than I need to be, but it scares me when he travels to Florida.

[Baitball Blogger]

16. You're preaching to the choir.

Florida crazy is what my name is all about.

[onethatcares]

26. I don't hang around honky tonks (anymore) but

find that while standing in line at grocerie stores allows one to challenge those stupid remarks.

The best beginning line if you hear the shit is to ask, "What policy is hurting you?" You'll find

the person complaining has only been listening to the rightwingsoakedradiowaves and doesn't

really have a clue.

[WI_DEM]

3. Why not? I think FL will be close

but Obama doesn't need to win FL to win. He has many ways he can get to 270--it's Romney for whom a state like Florida is a 'must win.'

[Ken Burch]

4. In some ways, it would be better if Obama were re-elected WITHOUT carrying Florida.

If that happened, he could finally do the sensible thing(recognize the Cuban government and lift the trade embargo against Cuba) and tell the fascists in Little Havana to go Cheney themselves.

[n2doc]

24. +1

And Ohio. They can go screw around with the vote totals all they want to in those places, so long as Obama wins elsewhere. Would love to see the importance of those 2 states diminished in the election.

[NightWatcher]

5. Might I suggest that people volunteer to watch the polls

I did it in 08 and will definitely be doing it this year in Florida. Our local elections board cut the number of polling places drastically.

So vote early then help protect other peoples right to vote... ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN A CLOSE STATE. Those are the ones they'll try to steal.

[Baitball Blogger]

10. Florida and Ohio are the obvious ones.

What other states would be potential close states?

[Capt. Obvious]

6. Better Believe It

First one in

[Proud Public Servant]

7. Here's some data

From HuffPo/Pollster.com: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-florida-president-romney-vs-obama

From RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

And then there's this, from fivethirtyeight:



So, basically, it's close in Florida (note that in all those polls but one, the lead assigned is inside the margin of error) and, in recent history April polling has only predicted the November winner about half the time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Florida Tilts Ever So Slightly Republican So Why Shouldn't FL Be Close In A Close Election?

.

[Baitball Blogger]

11. Because they have gained nothing by voting Republican in the past.

And Romney isn't going to tickle the fancies of the right-wing Christians.

I saw a Jon Stewart segment last night where some ugly things were said about his religion, and they were said by Republicans.

[RockaFowler]

12. This state constantly votes against it's best interests

That's why pRick Scott is governor

[Baitball Blogger]

13. Maybe we should get Jon Stewart's writers to come up with

political campaign commercials which will accentuate the stupid in their way of thinking?

[Bigmack]

18. Jon does a helluva lot better than any Dem ads. nt

[Tippy]

14. It is just to early to worry about Polls....

Most people are not even paying attention yet..We live politics here on DU but not everyone is like us..... Long about Sept. is when I will begin in earnest to follw them...

[HockeyMom]

17. How many people will be disenfranchised

with all the new obstacles the Repukes have put into place? Want to guess what Party these people will be from?

Maybe I should as a Democrat volunteer at the Polls in the Alien's "hometown" of very red Naples. You can be sure I won't be there screaming out, "Lookee here, we got ourselves a DEMOCRAT". There is a lot of corruption in this town.

[Baitball Blogger]

23. Here's my story of walking in to vote my first time in this

red county. I handed over my card, which identified me as NP for No Party. There were two older women behind the table. The one that took my card looks at it and quizzically asks the other, "What does NP stand for?"

The second one leans over and says, "Not Republican."


I vote Democratically for every election since I was old enough to vote, but where I come from, it was always taught that those kind of things you keep to yourself. Now I know why.

[DCBob]

19. Florida is simply a tough state for Democrats.

But the good news PrezO doesnt need it to win. He has lots of win scenarios sans FL. Romney has to win FL to win.

[Baitball Blogger]

22. Still would be fun to see what the Jon Stewart writers would come up with to

try to get through the Repub skulls.

[JaneQPublic]

20. Obama campaign has 3 or 4 ways to win without FL.

They have mapped out four different pathways for collecting the electoral votes needed to win. As I recall, they aren't counting on a win in FL in any of the scenarios.

Of course it's still possible Obama could win FL, but the campaign officials apparently think they can win reelection without it.

[Baitball Blogger]

21. That's good to hear.

[DonCoquixote]

25. Photo finish =

1) it means that Rick scott has been succsful in writing laws to keep brown people from voting
2) It means it is close enough to steal

That is why GOTV is mandatory.

[MineralMan]

29. GOTV! It's not just a good idea.

It's absolutely essential. It's not just the presidential race that matters, either. It's every state and federal legislative seat that is having an election that matters. GOTV!

[MadHound]

27. Why does this surprise you?

Frankly I think that Obama will lose in Florida.

[MineralMan]

28. It's still really early for polls to be too meaningful, I think.

Interesting as they are...