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MrScorpio

(73,660 posts)
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:09 AM Apr 2015

If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination, how do you gauge his chances of winning the general?


54 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Very Likely
38 (70%)
About even
5 (9%)
Not likely at all
10 (19%)
Other.
1 (2%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
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If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination, how do you gauge his chances of winning the general? (Original Post) MrScorpio Apr 2015 OP
The Country Is Breaking At The Seams - The Time For Change Is Now cantbeserious Apr 2015 #1
You have noticed that half the country votes Republican pretty much every election? brooklynite Apr 2015 #14
And the Republicans seem to be steady voters ... JustABozoOnThisBus Apr 2015 #35
you mean half the country that even bothers to vote, votes republican. m-lekktor Apr 2015 #45
And when we had a dynamic candidate like Barack Obama, voting spiked.....to 57% brooklynite Apr 2015 #46
This message was self-deleted by its author cantbeserious Apr 2015 #18
Against the current Republican clown car, no contest. joshcryer Apr 2015 #2
if he wins the nomination i think he would win the general JI7 Apr 2015 #3
I think nomination will be the biggest challenge. Cheese Sandwich Apr 2015 #4
I think it is too early and there are too many potential variables, to prognosticate. Warren DeMontague Apr 2015 #5
Yup. Agschmid Apr 2015 #37
slim but not impossible gwheezie Apr 2015 #6
I personally like and admire Bernie but do not think that he could be viable Gothmog Apr 2015 #7
And by doing so, they prove Bernie's point. smokey nj Apr 2015 #23
Bernie may win the point but he will still lose the election Gothmog Apr 2015 #41
You don't know how much money Bernie's going to raise smokey nj Apr 2015 #42
I will be happy to be wrong on this and see Bernie raise a great deal of money Gothmog Apr 2015 #48
Depends somewhat on the GOP nominee.... Adrahil Apr 2015 #8
#3 madokie Apr 2015 #17
He would represent real change but would have the entire establishment Warren Stupidity Apr 2015 #9
Maybe 'even'. He might have a shot. A big part of the issue is the Democratic Party KittyWampus Apr 2015 #10
No chance Renew Deal Apr 2015 #11
I'm thinking McGovern 1972.....a 49 state loss leftofcool Apr 2015 #30
McGovern was running against an incumbent Art_from_Ark May 2015 #49
It's his message madokie Apr 2015 #12
I think it's really early to be able to tell gollygee Apr 2015 #13
Less than "even", but more than "not likely at all" Recursion Apr 2015 #15
Hillary will be stronger this time TBF Apr 2015 #16
I like him and will probably vote for him in the primary davidpdx Apr 2015 #19
Did you even read the question? n/t Dawgs Apr 2015 #21
Yeah I did davidpdx Apr 2015 #32
Bernie is a populist that sticks to his message. Dawgs Apr 2015 #20
Very likely. H2O Man Apr 2015 #22
Not likely. NuclearDem Apr 2015 #24
How does someone win when... Chemical Bill Apr 2015 #25
I don't see him winning the presidenncy or the nomination. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #26
He'll make mincemeat of the talking points the Rs employ... Orsino Apr 2015 #27
It depends on how many Democrats don't vote for him in the general... kentuck Apr 2015 #28
"Very Likely" fredamae Apr 2015 #29
If people GET. THEIR. ASSES. OUT. AND. VOTE. Triana Apr 2015 #31
+1 Daniel537 Apr 2015 #43
I love him, but I'm not seeing his path to victory. Starry Messenger Apr 2015 #33
One should never rule out an implosion. joshcryer May 2015 #54
Nothing can be taken for granted any more nt fadedrose May 2015 #65
It depends on how dedicated and effective we are at getting Zorra Apr 2015 #34
Depends on who the other side picks in their primary n/t JustAnotherGen Apr 2015 #36
All things being equal to what they are today? Around 25%. nt stevenleser Apr 2015 #38
It's up to Bernie to work for our votes. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #39
Senator Sanders will also get a large share of republican votes... TheProgressive Apr 2015 #40
Bernie can mobilize the Millenial vote far better than Hillary Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #44
If he can somehow get the nod he can win. PeteSelman Apr 2015 #47
If anything shows how out of touch with reality some DUers are oberliner May 2015 #50
Sanders is a top contender. joshcryer May 2015 #52
Ladbrokes lists 12 Democratic candidates with better odds oberliner May 2015 #53
It's been a day. joshcryer May 2015 #55
Get your money down while the odds are so good! oberliner May 2015 #57
I'll somewhat agree with Starry. joshcryer May 2015 #59
There are other websites where they felt this way about Ron Paul oberliner May 2015 #60
In the highly unlikely event Hillary imploded ... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #64
I think he could win get the red out May 2015 #51
We're about to find out. Enthusiast May 2015 #56
Kick Omaha Steve May 2015 #58
I have been to this rodeo quaker bill May 2015 #61
I think he has a better chance of winning the general than winning the primary. Vinca May 2015 #62
It depends a couple of things.. fadedrose May 2015 #63

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,551 posts)
35. And the Republicans seem to be steady voters ...
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 10:09 AM
Apr 2015

... no matter the candidate, no matter the weather.

So if the Democratic ticket can motive the voters to get to the polls, we win. If a lackluster Democratic ticket fails to motivate, we lose.

I think Democrats hold the key.

m-lekktor

(3,675 posts)
45. you mean half the country that even bothers to vote, votes republican.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:24 PM
Apr 2015

i wonder why so many don't even bother to vote for anybody.

 

brooklynite

(96,641 posts)
46. And when we had a dynamic candidate like Barack Obama, voting spiked.....to 57%
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:49 PM
Apr 2015

The notion that Bernie Sanders, or any other candidate is going to inspire growth in voting of revolutionary proportions is baseless.

Response to cantbeserious (Reply #1)

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
4. I think nomination will be the biggest challenge.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:23 AM
Apr 2015

The only Republican that really scares me is Scott Walker because he cuts too much into the Democratic core region. But barring that I think the Dems will win.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
5. I think it is too early and there are too many potential variables, to prognosticate.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:25 AM
Apr 2015

I will say a couple things: One, if someone had asked me to lay odds on Barack Obama in April of '07, they wouldn't have been real good. Certainly I would have said him walking away with the general was a tall, unlikely prospect, particularly against an established DC institution like John McCain.

The other thing I will say is, that although the differences may seem glaring and stark here on DU, most of the red state people who loathe Bernie Sanders for being a "Socialist from Vermont" probably don't feel all that differently about Hillary Clinton.

gwheezie

(3,580 posts)
6. slim but not impossible
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:34 AM
Apr 2015

I say this because I've talked to people who have never voted for a dem say they would vote for Bernie and I believe dems would have no problem voting for him. I'm a Hillary supporter but I am not going to claim no one else could beat the GOP. I think she haa a better chance but if Bernie gets the nomination its not doom for the dem party. I think if he sticks to his message he'd get a surprising amount of votes from unlikely places.

Gothmog

(148,998 posts)
7. I personally like and admire Bernie but do not think that he could be viable
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 07:45 AM
Apr 2015

The GOP and its allies will be spending over $2 billion on this race and I doubt that Bernie could compete

smokey nj

(43,853 posts)
23. And by doing so, they prove Bernie's point.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:58 AM
Apr 2015

Every ad funded by the Koch Brothers or Sheldon Adelson could be run by Bernie with a tag line that reads "Told you so."

Gothmog

(148,998 posts)
41. Bernie may win the point but he will still lose the election
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 12:52 PM
Apr 2015

Proving that money is bad will not win the election. In order to be competitive in the general election, the Democratic nominee will need to raise a great deal of money

smokey nj

(43,853 posts)
42. You don't know how much money Bernie's going to raise
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 12:54 PM
Apr 2015

and where the money comes from is just as important as how much is raised.

Gothmog

(148,998 posts)
48. I will be happy to be wrong on this and see Bernie raise a great deal of money
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:36 PM
Apr 2015

I do not support Citizens United and think that the process is broken. However, we are stuck with this system and our nominee will neeed to raise over $one billion to be viable in November. That will likely involve super pacs and big money. Even President Obama's money machine was not sufficient in 2012 without super pacs and President Obama was one of the best fundraisers in the history of the Democratic Party.

Where the money comes from may be important in a theoritical sense but all money is fungible and the reality of the currrent system is that vast sums will be needed

Time will tell but I am very skeptical about Bernie's ability to raise the needed funds

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
8. Depends somewhat on the GOP nominee....
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 07:49 AM
Apr 2015

Against Bush? I think he gets creamed.

Against one of the nut cases? He stands a chance.

I don't have a good feeling about if he runs against Walker. My gut tells me he destroys Walker on economic issues, but loses on optics and campaign tactics. And loses by 6-7 points ultimately.

He's just not a great candidate for the kind of campaign you need to run to become President.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
17. #3
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:09 AM
Apr 2015

his endorsement of people who are here 'illegal,' in his mind, not mine, having a path to citizenship will not win him any votes rather it will cost him votes. I've a racist neighbor who possibly would have voted for him that will not vote for him now, no way in hell and the Hispanic people can see through him like the fraud he is on this issue. #3 won't get out of the gate and if he does he won't last long.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
9. He would represent real change but would have the entire establishment
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 07:55 AM
Apr 2015

arrayed against him. Tough tight race. 50/50 chance of winning. Or he could get slaughtered. By the way I think Hillary also would either win a close race or get slaughtered.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
10. Maybe 'even'. He might have a shot. A big part of the issue is the Democratic Party
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:00 AM
Apr 2015

would they all pull for him or would some sit it out?

Another issue is if he could assemble a stellar campaign staff and work out a winning strategy.

Axelrod and Plouffe did a lot to get Obama over the finish line.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
49. McGovern was running against an incumbent
Fri May 1, 2015, 03:54 AM
May 2015

who was also one of the dirtiest campaigners ever-- so dirty, in fact, that he even had his henchmen burglarize the national headquarters of the Democratic Party just a few months before the election. And the Paris Peace Talks were progressing to the point where Nixon and Kissinger announced, just before the election, that American involvement in the Vietnam War would soon end. A perfect way to get the votes of the first group of 18-to-20-year-olds who could vote in a presidential election.

For his part, McGovern shot himself in the foot with the Eagleton controversy, and he wasn't particularly effective at getting his message out.

gollygee

(22,336 posts)
13. I think it's really early to be able to tell
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:04 AM
Apr 2015

I remember 8 years ago the strong feeling at DU was that Obama had no chance at all, and obviously that wasn't so. Who knows. He could develop a huge following between now and then.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
15. Less than "even", but more than "not likely at all"
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:07 AM
Apr 2015

Particularly depending on who the Republicans run. Though frankly if we run Sanders and they run a freakshow like Paul we'll probably have some centrist Democrat or Republican run as an independent (think Bloomberg or somebody like that).

TBF

(32,607 posts)
16. Hillary will be stronger this time
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:09 AM
Apr 2015

with all she learned against Obama (he ran an incredibly smart campaign). If he can beat her he will win it all, but to be honest I think it is unlikely (and I will definitely be one of his supporters - I just think she will be difficult to beat this time).

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
19. I like him and will probably vote for him in the primary
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:18 AM
Apr 2015

But his chances of winning the nomination are zilch.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
32. Yeah I did
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:47 AM
Apr 2015

And as I stated I will probably support him (haven't for sure decided yet). To answer your question one would have to believe Sanders is going to be able to pull an "Obama" come out of (virtually) nowhere and win the nomination. I really would love for it to happen, but I don't see how. So my answer is none of the above.

 

Dawgs

(14,755 posts)
20. Bernie is a populist that sticks to his message.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 08:51 AM
Apr 2015

People are tired of Republican ideas and desperate for the ideas that Bernie is pushing.

It will depend on if people actually care to vote.

 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
24. Not likely.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:05 AM
Apr 2015

Almost entirely by virtue of Sanders not taking big money or running attack ads.

Unfortunately, that's how a presidential election works.

Chemical Bill

(2,638 posts)
25. How does someone win when...
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:11 AM
Apr 2015

the massive election fraud on behalf of repug candidates is so well documented?

Bill

Orsino

(37,428 posts)
27. He'll make mincemeat of the talking points the Rs employ...
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:20 AM
Apr 2015

...if, on the way to winning the nomination, he has not had to compromise absolutely everything he had stood for.

I suspect he'll be a fine debater, but I'll be watching to see how he presents himself.

kentuck

(111,536 posts)
28. It depends on how many Democrats don't vote for him in the general...
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:25 AM
Apr 2015

for whatever reasons.

And considering the division within the Republican Party, I could see Bernie appealing to a lot of "Reagan Democrat" types and also some Republicans.

I would say his chances are good but that he will have to overcome the "old socialist" label. He's a wise old coot with the right ideas to fix this country.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
29. "Very Likely"
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:28 AM
Apr 2015

Because he doesn't just talk to and appeal to "Dems/Libs/Progs/populists". He is appealing to Most everyone that is disappointed, disgusted, demoralized and dehumanized.
Those "Reasons" behind our collective experiences are Far from being partisan.

Bernie appeals to People.

 

Daniel537

(1,560 posts)
43. +1
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:06 PM
Apr 2015

Might still have a Dem congress to actually pass progressive legislation if people had not decided to ignore midterms as well.

Starry Messenger

(32,345 posts)
33. I love him, but I'm not seeing his path to victory.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:53 AM
Apr 2015

I have never been convinced there is a silent majority of non-voters who are just waiting for the left-wing superhero so they will suddenly shift course and vote. If Bernie somehow catches on and becomes a media sensation like Barack Obama? Maybe? But is this likely?

joshcryer

(62,300 posts)
54. One should never rule out an implosion.
Fri May 1, 2015, 05:34 AM
May 2015

Even if you think Sanders is a long shot (and I can't say I disagree, but I think that remains to be seen given debate performance; I think the MSM is not going to be kind to Clinton no matter what, her flagrant disregard for them builds resentment; and yes in her last three talks with community people she ignored them completely).

Put Sanders in a debate with Clinton and let him make solid position statements. I predict Iowa will not be a cakewalk for Clinton.

I don't like this "he won't win" stuff, and not that I'd say that it is perpetuating some myth (people should be allowed to have their own opinions without accusations flying; which I've seen a lot lately), but he's not out until he doesn't have a path to the delegates. And I bet you that he gets a lot of superdelegates in the next few months. If only to send a message to Clinton.

Zorra

(27,670 posts)
34. It depends on how dedicated and effective we are at getting
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:55 AM
Apr 2015

this done.

It is completely up to us. No Wall St. Banksters are going to help us elect their worst nightmare.

A real Democrat.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
39. It's up to Bernie to work for our votes.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 10:24 AM
Apr 2015

It will really come down to the team he can put around himself. If he beats Hillary in the primary, many from her team will move over to his presidential team. These are the best campaigners the world has to offer. No one can say he doesn't have a chance with the team he might have running things for him.

PeteSelman

(1,508 posts)
47. If he can somehow get the nod he can win.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:56 PM
Apr 2015

I just don't see him getting the nod as much as I want him to.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
50. If anything shows how out of touch with reality some DUers are
Fri May 1, 2015, 04:30 AM
May 2015

It is this poll.

The chances of Bernie Sanders winning the general election are zero.

The chances of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination are also zero.

That said, I think it's great that he is running as it will get folks talking about important issues that might otherwise have been ignored.

joshcryer

(62,300 posts)
52. Sanders is a top contender.
Fri May 1, 2015, 05:25 AM
May 2015

You have no idea what will happen to Clinton's campaign between now and the nomination. Anything can happen. While the challenge is formidable it's not an absolute guarantee.

It is certainly a non-zero chance.

It appears Clinton is running a "non-nonsense" campaign and she's placating Sanders by being nice. When push comes to shove, though, a debate or two, all Sanders has to do is show his consistency. Basically, show that he has held views Clinton is starting to exhibit long before she did.

I predict he wins some of their debates if not all of them. If Clinton says "I agree" too many times, Sanders will look really good.

And I predict that he will be a formidable challenger in Iowa. It won't be a clean sweep for Clinton.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
57. Get your money down while the odds are so good!
Fri May 1, 2015, 05:43 AM
May 2015

Look, I like Sanders a lot. He'd be a great president. If he gets the nomination, I will campaign for him with great enthusiasm.

I personally do not believe there is any chance of that happening. I think DU has a warped sense of reality when it comes to this sort of thing. Maybe it's wishful thinking.

But in any case, I guess we will have to see how it plays out (and/or actively work to see that he does get it).

joshcryer

(62,300 posts)
59. I'll somewhat agree with Starry.
Fri May 1, 2015, 05:47 AM
May 2015

It's a long shot. But give it time.

Hell, if there's an implosion in the campaign you might even see someone else throw their hat in (see: Warren). So there's that to consider as well.

I just don't like these zero chance arguments. Let's just see what happens. I've been thoroughly enjoying the major candidates' speeches lately. It's really good and I get off this forum and am able to avoid the negativity here.

If it makes you feel any better, in the Bernie vs Hillary poll 95% supported Bernie. But here only 51% think he will win. While it doesn't have nearly as many votes, it could show the doubt even Sanders' supporters have.

I think it's silly though because if Sanders was the nominee I don't see any Republicans in the current field that could win. I suspect they'd have to nominate a woman to cause a ruckus and she'd have to hold rather liberal positions on a lot of things.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
60. There are other websites where they felt this way about Ron Paul
Fri May 1, 2015, 06:44 AM
May 2015

I think that was a similar sort of situation.

That is to say that he was supported 95-5 vs. the other major option and 50+ percent thought he'd get it.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,808 posts)
64. In the highly unlikely event Hillary imploded ...
Fri May 1, 2015, 08:10 AM
May 2015

In the highly unlikely event Hillary imploded the Democratic establishment would rally around Biden and the president would surely put his finger on the scale for him.

get the red out

(13,472 posts)
51. I think he could win
Fri May 1, 2015, 04:58 AM
May 2015

I used to not think he could win, but I feel like he would have a good chance now. If a regular person listens to the man, it's hard to not agree with what he says. And the Reps are preparing for Clinton only, all that Bengazi effort would go down the drain.

quaker bill

(8,227 posts)
61. I have been to this rodeo
Fri May 1, 2015, 07:26 AM
May 2015

If Bernie develops the organization and support to beat Hillary, he will have become such a persona as to be nearly unstoppable.

Barack became much larger by beating Hillary. Had Barack simply been handed the nomination without the contest, it would have been much more unlikely for him to win the general. He needed the contest and the effort to overcome the "unstoppable" or "inevitable" Hillary to sharpen his skills and be seen as large politically.

On the other side, JEB, while seen as somewhat large, could not provide the same sort of lift in defeat that Hillary would.

Having Hillary in the race and then beating her to the Nom is the only path that could lead to a national victory for Bernie. Beating her, done fairly, in the manner Bernie proposes, would make him seem politically heroic, and huge in the political landscape.

It is an interesting political scenario to toy around with as an intellectual exercise. There is however very little chance things actually play out like this.

More likely is the scenario where Bernie stays viable for long enough into the primary season to make an interesting sparring partner. This would be good for Hillary, much better than a coronation.

Vinca

(50,501 posts)
62. I think he has a better chance of winning the general than winning the primary.
Fri May 1, 2015, 08:03 AM
May 2015

The contrast between Bernie and any Republican candidate is night and day. One is for the people and one is for the corporations. Of course there are still the people who vote against their own interest to convince.

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
63. It depends a couple of things..
Fri May 1, 2015, 08:09 AM
May 2015

The more the people know and understand socialism, the better his chances.

I was worried about his ties to Israel, but there don't seem to be any stronger than peoples ties to Ireland, England, Poland, or any other country.

His avoiding attending Netanyahu's address to the Congress and not signing that letter, and his approval of Obama's attempt to get an agreement with Iran, show me that he will not be bullied by that creep. That's all I needed to know. I don't know if he's for a two-state solution there, but that would be the cherry on his cake.

He's got to talk about these things when given the chance.

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