General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf Bernie wins the Democratic nomination, how do you gauge his chances of winning the general?
54 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
Very Likely | |
38 (70%) |
|
About even | |
5 (9%) |
|
Not likely at all | |
10 (19%) |
|
Other. | |
1 (2%) |
|
0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,727 posts)... no matter the candidate, no matter the weather.
So if the Democratic ticket can motive the voters to get to the polls, we win. If a lackluster Democratic ticket fails to motivate, we lose.
I think Democrats hold the key.
m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)i wonder why so many don't even bother to vote for anybody.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)The notion that Bernie Sanders, or any other candidate is going to inspire growth in voting of revolutionary proportions is baseless.
Response to cantbeserious (Reply #1)
cantbeserious This message was self-deleted by its author.
joshcryer
(62,371 posts)JI7
(90,233 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)The only Republican that really scares me is Scott Walker because he cuts too much into the Democratic core region. But barring that I think the Dems will win.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I will say a couple things: One, if someone had asked me to lay odds on Barack Obama in April of '07, they wouldn't have been real good. Certainly I would have said him walking away with the general was a tall, unlikely prospect, particularly against an established DC institution like John McCain.
The other thing I will say is, that although the differences may seem glaring and stark here on DU, most of the red state people who loathe Bernie Sanders for being a "Socialist from Vermont" probably don't feel all that differently about Hillary Clinton.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)gwheezie
(3,580 posts)I say this because I've talked to people who have never voted for a dem say they would vote for Bernie and I believe dems would have no problem voting for him. I'm a Hillary supporter but I am not going to claim no one else could beat the GOP. I think she haa a better chance but if Bernie gets the nomination its not doom for the dem party. I think if he sticks to his message he'd get a surprising amount of votes from unlikely places.
Gothmog
(153,721 posts)The GOP and its allies will be spending over $2 billion on this race and I doubt that Bernie could compete
smokey nj
(43,853 posts)Every ad funded by the Koch Brothers or Sheldon Adelson could be run by Bernie with a tag line that reads "Told you so."
Gothmog
(153,721 posts)Proving that money is bad will not win the election. In order to be competitive in the general election, the Democratic nominee will need to raise a great deal of money
smokey nj
(43,853 posts)and where the money comes from is just as important as how much is raised.
Gothmog
(153,721 posts)I do not support Citizens United and think that the process is broken. However, we are stuck with this system and our nominee will neeed to raise over $one billion to be viable in November. That will likely involve super pacs and big money. Even President Obama's money machine was not sufficient in 2012 without super pacs and President Obama was one of the best fundraisers in the history of the Democratic Party.
Where the money comes from may be important in a theoritical sense but all money is fungible and the reality of the currrent system is that vast sums will be needed
Time will tell but I am very skeptical about Bernie's ability to raise the needed funds
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Against Bush? I think he gets creamed.
Against one of the nut cases? He stands a chance.
I don't have a good feeling about if he runs against Walker. My gut tells me he destroys Walker on economic issues, but loses on optics and campaign tactics. And loses by 6-7 points ultimately.
He's just not a great candidate for the kind of campaign you need to run to become President.
his endorsement of people who are here 'illegal,' in his mind, not mine, having a path to citizenship will not win him any votes rather it will cost him votes. I've a racist neighbor who possibly would have voted for him that will not vote for him now, no way in hell and the Hispanic people can see through him like the fraud he is on this issue. #3 won't get out of the gate and if he does he won't last long.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)arrayed against him. Tough tight race. 50/50 chance of winning. Or he could get slaughtered. By the way I think Hillary also would either win a close race or get slaughtered.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)would they all pull for him or would some sit it out?
Another issue is if he could assemble a stellar campaign staff and work out a winning strategy.
Axelrod and Plouffe did a lot to get Obama over the finish line.
Renew Deal
(82,831 posts)The election would be a disaster.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)who was also one of the dirtiest campaigners ever-- so dirty, in fact, that he even had his henchmen burglarize the national headquarters of the Democratic Party just a few months before the election. And the Paris Peace Talks were progressing to the point where Nixon and Kissinger announced, just before the election, that American involvement in the Vietnam War would soon end. A perfect way to get the votes of the first group of 18-to-20-year-olds who could vote in a presidential election.
For his part, McGovern shot himself in the foot with the Eagleton controversy, and he wasn't particularly effective at getting his message out.
madokie
(51,076 posts)that is his strength.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)I remember 8 years ago the strong feeling at DU was that Obama had no chance at all, and obviously that wasn't so. Who knows. He could develop a huge following between now and then.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Particularly depending on who the Republicans run. Though frankly if we run Sanders and they run a freakshow like Paul we'll probably have some centrist Democrat or Republican run as an independent (think Bloomberg or somebody like that).
TBF
(33,948 posts)with all she learned against Obama (he ran an incredibly smart campaign). If he can beat her he will win it all, but to be honest I think it is unlikely (and I will definitely be one of his supporters - I just think she will be difficult to beat this time).
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)But his chances of winning the nomination are zilch.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)And as I stated I will probably support him (haven't for sure decided yet). To answer your question one would have to believe Sanders is going to be able to pull an "Obama" come out of (virtually) nowhere and win the nomination. I really would love for it to happen, but I don't see how. So my answer is none of the above.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)People are tired of Republican ideas and desperate for the ideas that Bernie is pushing.
It will depend on if people actually care to vote.
H2O Man
(75,202 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Almost entirely by virtue of Sanders not taking big money or running attack ads.
Unfortunately, that's how a presidential election works.
Chemical Bill
(2,638 posts)the massive election fraud on behalf of repug candidates is so well documented?
Bill
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)...if, on the way to winning the nomination, he has not had to compromise absolutely everything he had stood for.
I suspect he'll be a fine debater, but I'll be watching to see how he presents himself.
kentuck
(112,526 posts)for whatever reasons.
And considering the division within the Republican Party, I could see Bernie appealing to a lot of "Reagan Democrat" types and also some Republicans.
I would say his chances are good but that he will have to overcome the "old socialist" label. He's a wise old coot with the right ideas to fix this country.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)Because he doesn't just talk to and appeal to "Dems/Libs/Progs/populists". He is appealing to Most everyone that is disappointed, disgusted, demoralized and dehumanized.
Those "Reasons" behind our collective experiences are Far from being partisan.
Bernie appeals to People.
Triana
(22,666 posts)He can win.
Might still have a Dem congress to actually pass progressive legislation if people had not decided to ignore midterms as well.
Starry Messenger
(32,375 posts)I have never been convinced there is a silent majority of non-voters who are just waiting for the left-wing superhero so they will suddenly shift course and vote. If Bernie somehow catches on and becomes a media sensation like Barack Obama? Maybe? But is this likely?
joshcryer
(62,371 posts)Even if you think Sanders is a long shot (and I can't say I disagree, but I think that remains to be seen given debate performance; I think the MSM is not going to be kind to Clinton no matter what, her flagrant disregard for them builds resentment; and yes in her last three talks with community people she ignored them completely).
Put Sanders in a debate with Clinton and let him make solid position statements. I predict Iowa will not be a cakewalk for Clinton.
I don't like this "he won't win" stuff, and not that I'd say that it is perpetuating some myth (people should be allowed to have their own opinions without accusations flying; which I've seen a lot lately), but he's not out until he doesn't have a path to the delegates. And I bet you that he gets a lot of superdelegates in the next few months. If only to send a message to Clinton.
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)Zorra
(27,670 posts)this done.
It is completely up to us. No Wall St. Banksters are going to help us elect their worst nightmare.
A real Democrat.
JustAnotherGen
(33,268 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It will really come down to the team he can put around himself. If he beats Hillary in the primary, many from her team will move over to his presidential team. These are the best campaigners the world has to offer. No one can say he doesn't have a chance with the team he might have running things for him.
TheProgressive
(1,656 posts)Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)K&R Go Bernie
PeteSelman
(1,508 posts)I just don't see him getting the nod as much as I want him to.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It is this poll.
The chances of Bernie Sanders winning the general election are zero.
The chances of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination are also zero.
That said, I think it's great that he is running as it will get folks talking about important issues that might otherwise have been ignored.
joshcryer
(62,371 posts)You have no idea what will happen to Clinton's campaign between now and the nomination. Anything can happen. While the challenge is formidable it's not an absolute guarantee.
It is certainly a non-zero chance.
It appears Clinton is running a "non-nonsense" campaign and she's placating Sanders by being nice. When push comes to shove, though, a debate or two, all Sanders has to do is show his consistency. Basically, show that he has held views Clinton is starting to exhibit long before she did.
I predict he wins some of their debates if not all of them. If Clinton says "I agree" too many times, Sanders will look really good.
And I predict that he will be a formidable challenger in Iowa. It won't be a clean sweep for Clinton.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Sanders has the same odds as George Clooney of getting the Democratic nomination.
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/us-presidential-election/2016-democratic-presidential-nominee-e216136491
joshcryer
(62,371 posts)C'mon.
Bet you $20 he's #2 in two months time.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Look, I like Sanders a lot. He'd be a great president. If he gets the nomination, I will campaign for him with great enthusiasm.
I personally do not believe there is any chance of that happening. I think DU has a warped sense of reality when it comes to this sort of thing. Maybe it's wishful thinking.
But in any case, I guess we will have to see how it plays out (and/or actively work to see that he does get it).
joshcryer
(62,371 posts)It's a long shot. But give it time.
Hell, if there's an implosion in the campaign you might even see someone else throw their hat in (see: Warren). So there's that to consider as well.
I just don't like these zero chance arguments. Let's just see what happens. I've been thoroughly enjoying the major candidates' speeches lately. It's really good and I get off this forum and am able to avoid the negativity here.
If it makes you feel any better, in the Bernie vs Hillary poll 95% supported Bernie. But here only 51% think he will win. While it doesn't have nearly as many votes, it could show the doubt even Sanders' supporters have.
I think it's silly though because if Sanders was the nominee I don't see any Republicans in the current field that could win. I suspect they'd have to nominate a woman to cause a ruckus and she'd have to hold rather liberal positions on a lot of things.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think that was a similar sort of situation.
That is to say that he was supported 95-5 vs. the other major option and 50+ percent thought he'd get it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,025 posts)In the highly unlikely event Hillary imploded the Democratic establishment would rally around Biden and the president would surely put his finger on the scale for him.
get the red out
(13,542 posts)I used to not think he could win, but I feel like he would have a good chance now. If a regular person listens to the man, it's hard to not agree with what he says. And the Reps are preparing for Clinton only, all that Bengazi effort would go down the drain.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Omaha Steve
(103,075 posts)quaker bill
(8,232 posts)If Bernie develops the organization and support to beat Hillary, he will have become such a persona as to be nearly unstoppable.
Barack became much larger by beating Hillary. Had Barack simply been handed the nomination without the contest, it would have been much more unlikely for him to win the general. He needed the contest and the effort to overcome the "unstoppable" or "inevitable" Hillary to sharpen his skills and be seen as large politically.
On the other side, JEB, while seen as somewhat large, could not provide the same sort of lift in defeat that Hillary would.
Having Hillary in the race and then beating her to the Nom is the only path that could lead to a national victory for Bernie. Beating her, done fairly, in the manner Bernie proposes, would make him seem politically heroic, and huge in the political landscape.
It is an interesting political scenario to toy around with as an intellectual exercise. There is however very little chance things actually play out like this.
More likely is the scenario where Bernie stays viable for long enough into the primary season to make an interesting sparring partner. This would be good for Hillary, much better than a coronation.
Vinca
(50,861 posts)The contrast between Bernie and any Republican candidate is night and day. One is for the people and one is for the corporations. Of course there are still the people who vote against their own interest to convince.
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)The more the people know and understand socialism, the better his chances.
I was worried about his ties to Israel, but there don't seem to be any stronger than peoples ties to Ireland, England, Poland, or any other country.
His avoiding attending Netanyahu's address to the Congress and not signing that letter, and his approval of Obama's attempt to get an agreement with Iran, show me that he will not be bullied by that creep. That's all I needed to know. I don't know if he's for a two-state solution there, but that would be the cherry on his cake.
He's got to talk about these things when given the chance.