The schizoid world of "independent" voters
Everybody knows "independents" represent a big untapped reservoir of voters, just waiting for the right candidate to energize them
But it's not true
"Independents" is a useless catch-all category, with a membership that shifts with time
Here's a 2012 graphic from Pew showing how people drift into and out of "independent"
There was a loss of Ds into I in August 2011 and a loss of Rs into I in January 2012
Different people have widely different motives for calling themselves "independent"
A common motive, across the political spectrum, is that "my party left me" -- which can also mean many different things: it can mean (for example) "I'm really a D, and I think my party has become too centrist" or "I'm really a D, and I think my party has become too extreme" or "I'm really an R, and I think my party has become too centrist" or "I'm really an R, and I think my party has become too extreme"
Leaners in both parties are more ideological than those who weakly identify with a party. Some of them vote 100 percent for one party, but consider it ideologically wanting, corrupt, compromised. They aren’t “Party” people. Think Tea Party folks, libertarians, hard-core Progressives and Greens. The Democratic Party to a Progressive? A bunch of corporate sellouts ...
Of course, there really are a few people (10%?) who genuinely try to vote for candidates without paying attention to partisan labels
But another real possibility is "I'm calling myself an independent this year because it sounds better than saying I'm too frickin lazy to pay attention right now"
Gallup in 2014 reported intent to vote has plummeted among political independents:
It is down 25 points among independents who lean Republican and down 20 points among independents who lean Democratic. Meanwhile, intent to vote among pure independents -- those who do not lean toward either party, and who generally are the least likely to say they plan to vote -- has declined by just eight points. Thus, the hard-core partisans on both sides have generally maintained high interest in voting this year, albeit somewhat reduced, while those less attached to either party have significantly downgraded their interest
And maybe sometimes it just means they aren't going to tell the pollster where they stand
Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, ... thinks there may be a more pragmatic reason why some voters remain unaffiliated: "They don't want to get literature; they don't want to be bothered; they don't want to get phone calls."
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