Analysis: Why I think it'll be Scott Walker

[cali]

If I had to put money on it, I'd feel pretty confident saying that Walker will be the nominee. The schism in the party will prevent the establishment Jeb backers from shoving him through. The tea party is a stronger force than it was even four years ago. Scottie The Walker, will be acceptable both to big money establishment repukes and the tea party nutwads.

Chris Christie: Too damaged. No, he wasn't indicted but he's besmirched by bridgegate.

Ted Cruz: Tea party favorite, loathed by the establishment

Mike Huckabee: Ignored by both factions, in it for the goody bad

Rand Paul: Not really a libertarian but not gung-ho enough on war for the party establishment and looked upon with suspicion from many tea partiers.

Kasich, Fiorina, and the rest of the motley crew are just noise.

If Hillary is the nominee, he'll be a pretty good foil for her. People talk about her likeability, but she'll positively shine in terms of warmth and personality next to the Walker.

[truebluegreen]

1. I think you are right. nt

[yeoman6987]

2. I agree. We need to have some real opposition

Talking points against him. He comes off reasonable but Hillary will have to paint him as a crazy like the rest. He will go after her as an elitist 1 percent where he will say he is an everyday type who even left college to get a job and some will eat that up. Hillary must start collecting negatives now.

[Capt. Obvious]

3. That's poppycock

[cali]

4. This should be obvious, Capt. Obvious:

It's poppycock to proclaim something poppycock without being even the tiniest bit able to explain WHY something is poppycock.

Lame, Cap. Very lame.

[Capt. Obvious]

8. And that is cod's wallop

[cali]

11. lol. Obviously not, Cap- though it's kind of cute. Clue, Cap: The word is codswallop

keep digging, Cap.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. How much wallop does a cod pack?

[calimary]

16. ROFL! "... if a cod pack could pack wallop?"

[closeupready]

18. Tee hee ...

[Buns_of_Fire]

40. I learned it as "How much cod would a codswallop whallop

if a codswallop would whallop cod?" But that may not be exactly correct -- I heard it from a woodchuck who was occupied chucking wood at the time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Do you believe this is obvious to the Captain? /NT

[hifiguy]

25. Nonsense. Anyone can see that it is balderdash and bunkum.

[Capt. Obvious]

37. That's absolute flummery.

[winter is coming]

5. Walker is an empty suit. A rigorous debate season... oh, wait. n/t

[First Speaker]

7. He isn't even an empty suit--he's just a hole in the air...

...to quote George Orwell. But that doesn't mean he can't win. A country that elected Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George W Bush is quite capable of electing Scott Walker.

[hifiguy]

24. True. Especially with the Koch billions behind him.

The Little Chimp was capable, left to his own devices, of fucking up a two-car funeral on a one way street even if you spotted him the hearse. Yet he managed to become president twice without ever actually being honestly elected once. Reagan and Nixon, toxic and destructive as they were, actually managed electoral legitimacy if nothing else.

[PeaceNikki]

6. As a born and bred Democratic cheesehead, I have SUCH conflicting opinions on this.

Pros:
It keeps him out of Wisconsin
It allows the world to see how fucking awful he is
It allows the world to see how fucking STUPID he is

Cons:
It puts him in the national spotlight for fucking shit up
The nightmare of all nightmares: he could win
It allows the world to see how fucking awful some in WI are for voting him in
It allows the world to see how fucking STUPID some in WI are for voting him in

ugh, oh.... I just don't know.

I would like to see Hillary tear him a new asshole like she did to that fuckface Ron Johnson, though.

[LondonReign2]

27. As someone that went to school with the little fuck

he is absolutely the worst possible human to potentially occupy the White House out of the current slate of clowns. To be clear, I'd rather see the insane Ben Carson or stupider-than-shit Ted Cruz in the Oval Office before Scott Fucking Walker.

[PeaceNikki]

28. Holy shit, really? Marquette or in Delavan?

[LondonReign2]

30. Marquette. He was two years behind me before he couldn't hack it anymore

which he calls "leaving for better opportunities". Why yes, a job *is* better than being kicked out.

[trotsky]

9. Naw, it'll be Jeb.

Money is all that matters, and Jeb will have it.

[seabeyond]

10. that should strongly put teachers, firemen, police in democratic camp. nt

[BillZBubb]

14. Teachers yes, firemen probably, cops NO.

The Democrats want to clean up police abuses. The cops don't like that. Police unions are routinely republican and that won't change.

[seabeyond]

15. you do have htat eliment for sure. and i considered it. walkers is a union buster. i think that

will take priority. UNLESS walker excludes them from the union busting.

[corkhead]

12. Personally, I fear it will be Rick Snyder from Michigan

Just as dangerous as Walker but not as dumb. Hopefully the epic fail of the road funding ballot proposal will taint him enough to keep him out of contention.

[Jim Lane]

20. His problem: He doesn't want religious freedom to include anti-gay discrimination.

Michigan now has a state anti-discrimination statute, but it doesn't include discrimination based on sexual orientation. Snyder has in the past alluded to the idea of expanding it, which was bad enough for the fundies, but he made it worse in the wake of the Indiana brouhaha:

Gov. Rick Snyder is vowing to veto a religious freedom bill similar to Indiana's controversial law if it is not accompanied with legislation extending anti-discrimination protections to gays and lesbians.

(from this April 2 news story)

The Christofascists don't have complete control over the GOP nominating process, but they probably have enough influence to torpedo Snyder's candidacy even if he runs. In a national race, that would be more of a factor than the road-building tax.

If he did somehow get the nomination, I think he'd be a more dangerous opponent than Walker or any of the declared candidates.

[progressoid]

17. At this point, I'm guessing either Walker or Jeb.

But Cruz and Paul will hang in there the longest of the losers.

[KamaAina]

19. Kasich? That I had not heard.

[MosheFeingold]

21. Mario

Or Walker would be my bet, for much the same reasons. They are the middle-of-the-road (for Republicans) compromise candidates.

Cruz might be the VP candidate, for fresh meat to the TEA baggers, akin to Palin (but smarter).

Jeb is flatly hated by most Republicans and he's got a monkey on his back named "W."

Huckabee is in it at the direction of Ailes, to siphon off the Religious voters from Cruz. Basically a stalking horse.

Paul is not a libertarian, yes, but he's said enough libertarian things to be rejected by the base. Shame, in so many ways, because I respect libertarians, even if I think they are impractical.

Christie is a non-starter. He's reasonable on gun control, for one, so will never make it out of the Iowa primary.

Fiorina is not serious.

[hifiguy]

22. I think you are right, and the reason can be stated in two words:

The Kochtopus.

Snotty is one of their Chosen ones and they will spend a billion if they have to.

[joeybee12]

23. I agree...he's the default candidate...nt

[Yavin4]

26. You underestimate the BFEE

The Bush Family Evil Empire. In 2000, McCain seemed like a shoo-in for the nomination. That is until the BFEE went to work on him. The same thing will happen to Walker.

[still_one]

29. I think it will be neck and neck between walker and bush. I am sure we all agree there is very

little difference between the two.

The main advantage walker has is people don't know him outside of Wisconsin. The main advantage bush has is he will flaunt his Spanish influence to try and sway the Hispanic populace. In addition, even though Walker has the Koch brothers, bush has Adelson, and his own massive funds.

No matter who our nominee is, the most important thing will be for that candidate to be very clear about the issues, and where we/they stand without ambiguity. In my view the biggest problem our candidates have had in the past, and that includes both Kerry and Hillary, is they triangulated too much, trying to give answers to satisfy everyone, which just doesn't work out. So far it appears Hillary has learned her lesson from what I have seen and heard from her campaign. Bernie, always has been a straight shooter, so that won't be a problem with him, and we will see what other Democrats want to jump in.

I notice you didn't mention Ben Carson for the republicans

[BrotherIvan]

31. Jeb will be the nominee

Walker is a well-funded Santorum. He'll be out early. He's under investigation and none of the clown car will let him waltz on in.

[oberliner]

32. Vegas still has Jeb as the favorite

For what that is worth.

[Katashi_itto]

33. If Hillary is the nominee. Walker has a good chance.

Billions backing him. He wears the destruction of Wi like it's a badge of honor.

[HereSince1628]

34. Walker is best as a front man...he'll become a threat with capable handlers

Walker is the perfect kulak. It probably makes him appealing to the R's in Congress and to Oligarchs who want a puppet. He also knows that what the tp most seek is blustering. Walker is great at serving both levels of republican politics

But because Walker serves the message of others, he is nothing without a script, and once he's on his own his best tactic is shutting his pie-hole, which he is getting a bit better at doing.

With the right people around him, and a prompter in his ear, Walker could be super-W. So Walker's path to the WH reduces to his hooking up to a capable puppet master...who can pwn him as Cheney did to W.

Surviving boyars of the Bush dynasty represent an organizational power within the GOP superstructure that Walker utterly lacks. I have no indication that the masters of the GOP universe really want to cede control to the Koch's. If the establishment powers can deny Walker a capable handler, Walker is at best the candidate most likely to settle for the role of bucket of warm spit.

[geek tragedy]

35. He's the most like George W. Bush, an elitist who

plays dumb very well.

Republicans prefer their leaders to be stupid, as it demonstrates authenticity.

[Scuba]

36. He beat two corpo-Dems (Barrett and Burke) in Wisconsin. If he faces Hillary he would win again.

Another good reason to support Bernie.

[TBF]

38. Wishful dreaming ... it will be Jeb.

Even Wisconsin doesn't want Walker anymore (he went too far when he threatened to cut the university & people suddenly snapped to attention and realized they would be completely tanking their jobs/economy if they gut the UW).

[joshcryer]

39. This.

If only because Republican establishment don't want a loser candidate.

[Justice]

42. I think it will be Ohio Governor Kasich (if he runs)

http://www.concordmonitor.com/news/politicalmonitor/16800596-95/in-concord-and-running-out-of-time-kasich-edges-toward-announcement


http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/how-arrogant-prickly-smart-john-kasich-would-upend-2016-20150306

[forthemiddle]

43. He also has Reince Priebus on his side

Don't forget that those two "grew up" together in Wisconsin politics. It has already been announced that one of the 1st debates will be here in Wisconsin. And I would not be surprised at all if Wisconsin moves up its Primary to benefit him.