the voting is over. live blogging the UK election results

[cali]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/may/07/election-2015-live-final-votes-cast-as-battle-for-power-looms

[cali]

1. ugh exit polling is discouraging as hell

The BBC has now released the rest of the figures, including Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

Conservatives: 316

Labour: 239

SNP: 58

Lib Dems: 10

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 2

Ukip: 2
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15m ago17:03

According to these figures, the Conservatives are on course to gain nine seats. And Labour are on course to lose seats, and end up 77 seats behind the Conservatives.

[cali]

2. More:

The exit poll commissioned by the BBC, ITV and Sky News, and carried out by Gfk-NOP and Ipsos Mori, has the Conservatives on 316 seats, by far the largest party - Labour are predicted to win 239 seats.

The numbers are in stark contract to pre-election polls. And based on these numbers the current Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government would have the numbers to continue in office.

Beyond the two main parties, the exit poll has the SNP winning 58 seats, the Lib Dems 10, Ukip and the Greens both on two seats. If the results confirm the exit poll, the sum of support that Cameron could expect in parliament would tally up to 336 seats.

Meanwhile those parties that would vote a Conservative government down - Labour + SNP + SDLP + Plaid Cymru + Greens - would add up to only 306 seats.

If the results confirm the exit poll, the most contrasting result with pre-election polls would be the gap between the Tories and Labour, and the collapse of the Lib Dems, who were expected to hold on to about half their seats.

Less surprising would be the result of the Scottish National party. Since last year’s independence referendum the SNP had commanded a twenty-point lead over Labour in poll after poll. So when it came to Nicola Sturgeon’s party, the question was only ever about how many of Scotland’s 59 seats would they eventually gain.

[JaneyVee]

3. Poll now has it at Con 284 Lab 263...

But that is a YouGov poll, I think exit polling more accurate?

[cali]

4. I guess I'd go with the BBC exit poll

but I don't really know. Sunderland results should be in shortly. Don't know how representative that is. Exit polling is not encouraging.

[Ghost Dog]

5. The YouGov poll is also an exit poll.

In the circumstances, the margin of error for any exit poll is necessarily quite wide.

ed. Ok, correction: "The YouGov figures reflect polling carried out today, but it is not a proper exit poll." - Guardian.

[cali]

7. I just read that it is not an exit poll

it was taken today but not an exit poll.

[Ghost Dog]

9. Yeah, so I see, thanks cali.

Margin of error still wide.

[Spider Jerusalem]

10. BBC exit poll has been badly wrong before

in 1992 the exit polling predicted the Tories losing by 14 seats to Labour (and they won 65 more seats than Labour). And this exit poll is very far out of line with all the other polling up to now.

[cali]

11. from what I can tell, it'll be the Scottish National Party

that really damages Labor- if the exit poll is accurate.

[cali]

12. BBC exit poll has been updated and holds to the same numbers. damn

[octoberlib]

6. God, I hope this isn't accurate.

[cali]

8. first result

Here are the Houghton and Sunderland South results in full.

Bridget Phillipson (Lab) 21,218 (55.13%, +4.79%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 8,280 (21.51%, +18.82%)
Stewart Hay (C) 7,105 (18.46%, -2.97%)
Alan Robinson (Green) 1,095 (2.84%)
Jim Murray (LD) 791 (2.06%, -11.86%)
Lab maj 12,938 (33.61%)
7.01% swing Lab to Ukip
Electorate 68,316; Turnout 38,489 (56.34%, +1.02%)

I’ve posted this result here, because it is the first one of the night, but I won’t be posting all the results here. They will be on our separate results page.
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8m ago22:55

Labour has held Houghton & Sunderland South. Ukip has come second.

Labour is on 55%, up 5 percentage points. Ukip was on 22%, up 19%.

John Curtice says this result is in line with what his exit poll suggested.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. 1st significant result: Cons increase their majority in Swindon North

a 4% swing from Labour to the Tories.

The Tories have held Swindon North. That was 102nd on Labour’s target list, according to the Progress briefing from last year (pdf).

Here are the figures in detail:

*Justin Tomlinson (C) 26,295 (50.33%, +5.78%)
Mark Dempsey (Lab) 14,509 (27.77%, -2.74%)
James Faulkner (Ukip) 8,011 (15.33%, +11.67%)
Poppy Hebden-Leeder (Green) 1,723 (3.30%, +2.33%)
Janet Ellard (LD) 1,704 (3.26%, -13.97%)
C maj 11,786 (22.56%)
4.26% swing Lab to C

These figures help to explain why the exit poll could be right. The swing is not Conservative to Labour, but Labour to Conservative – by more than four percentage points. That may be because Ukip are taking votes from Labour.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/may/07/election-2015-live-final-votes-cast-as-battle-for-power-looms#block-554bf8c8e4b0ef7ef3c29bcb

It's a sizeable town in the south, and the kind of place Labour could think of winning in good years - they held it from 1997-2010. For the Tories to increase their majority is bad.