Opinion: Obama won't change marriage equality stance pre-election

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Wed May 9, 2012, 03:03 PM - Edit history (1)

UPDATE: Obama said that civil unions are not sufficient and affirmed that "Same-sex couples shoul be able to get married" and I have never been happier to have been wrong in a prediction. It is a calculated political decision and it says good things that this is being analyzed in the WH as a positive move. My erroneous prediction is left unedited here for posterity.


This is an election season.

For a politician to change a long-standing position during an election the issue has to be seriously hurting him. It has to be like Humphrey giving up on the Vietnam War as a last ditch.

Obama's current stance is not hurting him more than changing that stance would so it is not going to happen. In my opinion.

Elections are when political expedience is most relatively acceptable. IMO.

I hope I am wrong in this because if Obama were to roll out a more liberal view on marriage equality it would mean they had the numbers or a theory to back it as a smart political move here and now. And I would be delighted to live somewhere where endorsing marriage equality garnered net votes.

(And as to whether Biden's comments were part of a strategy... no. C'mon. I love Joe Biden precisely because his utterances can never be assumed to be planned.)

[SoutherDem]

1. I agree

He is waiting on 2nd term.

If he wins I do think he will support gay marriage.

I think Biden doing so now was 1) trying to help NC, 2) giving LGBT hope, and 3) testing the water, if there were too much backlash Obama can "wash his hand" of the statement. That is one of the jobs of the VP, make the statement the POTUS can't. But yes Biden is know for things like this.

[SoutherDem]

7. OK I was wrong

[trumad]

2. I think he comes out with support today.

[limpyhobbler]

3. You pre-empted my question. I was getting ready to ask if you thought

Biden's "gaffe" was staged.

I really think that had to be part of a strategy. Sending up a test balloon to see what happens. Feeling out the waters. Also controlling the message and dominating the news for a week. Not even Joe Biden could have let all that slip without thinking about it.

Alternate theory: VP Biden still harbors a fanasty of running in 2016, and is trying to set the stage for running as a marriage equality candidate.

Alternate theory 2: Biden was just saying what was on his mind, not thinking about it much. Seems unlikely to me. Those guys just switched into campaign mode and they are very good at politics, to put it mildly. Seemed premeditated to me.

[cthulu2016]

4. Alternate theory:

Maybe Biden was trying to express the administration's policy and didn't think he was being controversial. Did Biden say he favored gay marriage, or did he say he favored marriage equality?

The administration thinks gay couples should have equality of benefits and stautus... civil unions.

Is that what Biden thought he meant about equality? He is a sloppy speaker.

I haven't studied the transcript. Just throwing out an impression.

[emulatorloo]

5. I think he will change his stance pre-election

Obama came out specifically against the NC Constitutional Amendment many weeks ago.

Biden's statements were intentional, IMHO. Laying the groundwork.

[emulatorloo]

6. Looks like you were wrong. Link here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014117237

[bigtree]

8. .