Charlie Cook: Handicapping a Democratic Takeover
The battle for control of the Senate is finally underway and if early indications are correct, Republicans can be no more confident that they will keep the majority in the next Congress than Democrats could have been at this point in 2013.
In the 2014 cycle, Republicans had every advantage. They had few of their own seats to defend, and they got to run against an unpopular Democratic president and his policies. Democrats, on the other hand, were forced to defend seven seats in states that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012, many by very wide margins. They ended up losing all seven seats, including three open seats and four held by incumbents.
Now the tables are turned. Republicans are defending 24 seats this cycle, compared to just 10 for Democrats. While President Obama carried all 10 of the Democratic-held seats up this cycle, he also carried seven states with Republican-held seats: Florida (Marco Rubio), Illinois (Mark Kirk), Iowa (Chuck Grassley), New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte), Ohio (Rob Portman), Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey), and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson).
If there is a difference in presidential performance in this cycle versus the last one, it's that Obama didn't win these states by the same kind of margins that Romney carried the Democratic-held seats by in 2014. For example, Romney carried the open seat in West Virginia by 27 points, making it the reddest of the Democratic-held seats in 2014. By contrast, President Obama carried Illinois, the bluest of the Republican-held seats this cycle, by 17 points. But it is also true that Obama's approval ratings are higher now than they were during much of the 2014 cycle. Not good, but not as bad.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/handicapping-a-democratic-takeover-20150511?utm_content=buffer208c2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
= new reply since forum marked as read
