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DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
Thu May 21, 2015, 10:55 AM May 2015

Self-driving trucks will be job-killers.

http://gizmodo.com/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-kill-jobs-and-not-jus-1705921308

"Those 3.5 million truck drivers driving all over the country stop regularly to eat, drink, rest, and sleep. Entire businesses have been built around serving their wants and needs. Think restaurants and motels as just two examples. So now we’re talking about millions more whose employment depends on the employment of truck drivers. But we still can’t even stop there.

Those working in these restaurants and motels along truck-driving routes are also consumers within their own local economies. Think about what a server spends her paycheck and tips on in her own community, and what a motel maid spends from her earnings into the same community. That spending creates other paychecks in turn. So now we’re not only talking about millions more who depend on those who depend on truck drivers, but we’re also talking about entire small town communities full of people who depend on all of the above in more rural areas. With any amount of reduced consumer spending, these local economies will shrink."


--------------------
Beware: Most unskilled workers will be replaced with robots whenever its cheaper. The only save jobs for unskilled workers will be those where the human component is part of the service/product, e.g. customer-service like waiting tables or crafting artisanal products.



And for those who go by the old "there-will-always-be-new-kinds-of-jobs" route: Please list examples of new jobs for 3.5 million unskilled workers, created by self-driving trucks.
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Self-driving trucks will be job-killers. (Original Post) DetlefK May 2015 OP
There will be a truck driver in the cab of each self-driving rig. In_The_Wind May 2015 #1
Take a look at the Spain testing convoy driving without drivers. CK_John May 2015 #8
It's a long, long way off in America. DOT can't even get electronic logs in all trucks. In_The_Wind May 2015 #15
The future is coming. I bet in 10 years there are self driving trucks working daily. nt Logical May 2015 #72
Putting an end to speeding, jackknifes, rollovers and tailgating big rigs. In_The_Wind May 2015 #81
And the advent of the automobile was devastating for blacksmiths. (nt) Nye Bevan May 2015 #2
The trend is that any new jobs created need lots of skill or requires an advanced degree AZ Progressive May 2015 #4
But can we stop evolution? The2ndWheel May 2015 #17
Blacksmiths could become mechanics or body repairmen. Today, are they to retrain to be robots or leveymg May 2015 #52
+1 appalachiablue May 2015 #87
self driving trucks will be a lot safer Travis_0004 May 2015 #3
Boy! I have to admit to conflicting views on this subject. tech3149 May 2015 #5
Passenger jets fly themselves too workinclasszero May 2015 #6
Passenger jets do not fly themselves. SheilaT May 2015 #27
You seem to have missed a distinction jberryhill May 2015 #41
In what world do you live in where drivers that are "drunk or high" is commonplace? A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #49
I've never known or heard of such drunk, high, irresponsible and sleep deprived truckers. appalachiablue May 2015 #58
it won't stop there ruffburr May 2015 #7
Appreciate your raising the truth of what's rarely mentioned, that apart from the robotic appalachiablue May 2015 #22
I don't understand why this isn't obvious to people Johonny May 2015 #37
So essentially, trucks will become train-cars-on-highways. WinkyDink May 2015 #80
That occurred to me too, like a caravan or convoy of trucks, train cars, tanks, horses with appalachiablue May 2015 #88
But before they go, I hope they get there 15 dollars an hour at yeoman6987 May 2015 #31
+1. So cruel the GOP won't let people get a little money before being displaced by bots- appalachiablue May 2015 #36
The horse and buggy comeback is always a trip The2ndWheel May 2015 #9
Oh it's more then that yeoman6987 May 2015 #33
Just Like They Pay Some Farmers Not To Farm - Corporations Will Have To Pay..... global1 May 2015 #10
so were horseless carriages......and telephones...and electricity....and computers...... bowens43 May 2015 #11
I'm not sure what you're suggesting? Outlaw some technology to save jobs? Adrahil May 2015 #12
No, but the current economic-industrial model is unsustainable. DetlefK May 2015 #18
Oh, I agree, but I have no idea what to do about it. I'd be interested in hearing Krugman's ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #20
I think a universal income is a great idea. Oneironaut May 2015 #29
That money must come with zero strings attached yeoman6987 May 2015 #42
Productivity growth is down at the moment. It doesn't look like the robots are taking over anymore Chathamization May 2015 #60
Should we as a species aspire to nothing more ZX86 May 2015 #92
IMO Mr Dixon May 2015 #13
Mandatory repost Bosonic May 2015 #14
Yep they will whatthehey May 2015 #16
Techies love to trot out the blacksmiths and buggy whip makers, but... Rochester May 2015 #19
The implications are... most troubling. DetlefK May 2015 #23
Well, I'd love to hear your ideas. Adrahil May 2015 #24
+100. They don't ask and they don't care. Machine-Tech worship and fantasy isn't my art. appalachiablue May 2015 #25
Really you all should read Karl Marx davekriss May 2015 #53
Well, let's hear your ideas! Adrahil May 2015 #69
Oops I didn't mean the Marxist post to fall under you. :) davekriss May 2015 #57
You can't stop technology. Nor should we. nt Logical May 2015 #73
I have been saying this about both the TPP and Social Welfare Spending John_Doe80004 May 2015 #21
I hope that you do understand kentauros May 2015 #26
It didn't do that...before The2ndWheel May 2015 #30
In the context of this thread, kentauros May 2015 #34
Transition periods are narrowing from the horse and buggy days. haele May 2015 #40
And yet, it's still going to take time, kentauros May 2015 #46
Not only that, but they may only be economical (at first) for long-haul rides Recursion May 2015 #65
Good point. kentauros May 2015 #70
Few people will bother to own a self-driving car Recursion May 2015 #71
That sounds more like the way it'll work. kentauros May 2015 #77
That's the idea. I'm sure there will still be enthusiasts Recursion May 2015 #78
There will always be "gear heads" kentauros May 2015 #79
I can even predict the nostalgic op-eds about the kids who don't know about driving around aimlessly Recursion May 2015 #84
And revolutionary... Oneironaut May 2015 #28
Sci Fi 1939 May 2015 #35
What new jobs? historylovr May 2015 #39
The very wealthy will always need menials... malthaussen May 2015 #48
Yep. bravenak May 2015 #51
Ah, yes. Good point. historylovr May 2015 #61
Lots of renewable energy plants are hiring. So is biotech. So are a lot of small farms Recursion May 2015 #66
I take it your username is ironic mythology May 2015 #86
Yeah. Sure. historylovr May 2015 #91
Let me know when the politicians become obsolete Fumesucker May 2015 #68
Those big rigs have bedrooms. Truck drivers aren't checking into the Motel 6. Atman May 2015 #32
Yep, exactly. B2G May 2015 #45
Sometimes it's the only way to keep a family together. Eleanors38 May 2015 #56
I find your definition of bedroom mildly amusing. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #90
Local buggywhips 489 Oktober May 2015 #38
It's simple. We bring back horses for the post office. Taitertots May 2015 #43
Truck drivers are not 'unskilled' B2G May 2015 #44
They will. And Taxi's too. Used to have elevator operators too. Technology waits for no one. nt Logical May 2015 #74
Elevators operate in a defined space/location, vehicles don't bigbrother05 May 2015 #82
You are short sighted on how technology advances. And landing a plane is much harder than driving. n Logical May 2015 #109
It's basically no longer in our hands then The2ndWheel May 2015 #83
I always have questions for Doom and Gloom Disguised as Optimism threads such as this. HughBeaumont May 2015 #47
Biotech and renewables are probably a good guess, along with "small ag" Recursion May 2015 #63
I think I'm in the minority here thinking that killing jobs is good. hunter May 2015 #50
+1. A social dividend makes higher unemployment a great thing Recursion May 2015 #64
Take a look at any pulp advertising paper like the Greensheet... Eleanors38 May 2015 #54
people can hack networks with a cellphone DiverDave May 2015 #55
One thing a machine will never be able to do is anticipate. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #59
Wow, how short sighted...... Logical May 2015 #75
I didn't say they wouldn't be safe. My post WAS about driver error. cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #76
Humans can't anticipate either, we guess, and I would actually think that a computer... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #93
If humans can't anticipate; from whence does the word originate? cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #95
We make guesses, some are educated, many are not, but the point is that I don't... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #96
"Anticipation" is basically programming, be it in a human brain or a silicon one. kentauros May 2015 #108
What's your opinion on wheat threshing machines? (nt) Recursion May 2015 #62
1. Just have a look at the OP. 2. Your premise is faulty. DetlefK May 2015 #67
There will still be "drivers" on these trucks. greendog May 2015 #85
Initially yes, but I would imagine that would only be transitional. Humanist_Activist May 2015 #89
Driverless Trucks Taking Over At California Ports FrodosPet May 2015 #94
This makes sense for first usage of autonomous trucks(and possibly cars), in environment where.... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #98
on the bright side, maybe fewer people will get killed n/t librechik May 2015 #97
This is only the beginning, and I don't think the world economy is equipped to handle it at this... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #99
And the techies don't care because they look down the rest of society anyway AZ Progressive May 2015 #101
That's actually completely untrue, I am one of those techies, and we are talking about... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #103
I'm afraid you are correct librechik May 2015 #110
It could be a golden opportunity rather than something to fear, but only if governments, culture... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #111
This at the very least is another method of reducing the bargaining power of workers AZ Progressive May 2015 #100
Few people stop to think how automating everything will change Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #102
If it leads to more efficiency and, with the right public policies, a better standard of living... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #104
If, and only if, it leads to better public policy. Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #106
Well, first step is to get Republicans out of office, they hate any public policies that... Humanist_Activist May 2015 #107
That second paragraph is the multiplier effect in a nutshell JonLP24 May 2015 #105

In_The_Wind

(72,300 posts)
1. There will be a truck driver in the cab of each self-driving rig.
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:08 AM
May 2015

As a pilot car driver, I think it's a great idea.

In_The_Wind

(72,300 posts)
15. It's a long, long way off in America. DOT can't even get electronic logs in all trucks.
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:22 PM
May 2015

Truckers are still exceeding the number of hours they can drive by falsifying paper log books. Yes, we need safer roads but self-driving rigs will not replace truck drivers.

I don't want to see driver-less trucks on our highways with passenger cars.

In_The_Wind

(72,300 posts)
81. Putting an end to speeding, jackknifes, rollovers and tailgating big rigs.
Fri May 22, 2015, 09:11 AM
May 2015

Nothing pisses me off more than a 18 wheeler so close to my back bumper I feel like the truck is going to run over me.

AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
4. The trend is that any new jobs created need lots of skill or requires an advanced degree
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:37 AM
May 2015

Which shuts out people without money nor the intellectual level to get an advanced degree.

So thus, it's social darwinism.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
17. But can we stop evolution?
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:38 PM
May 2015

We've tried to do so to some degree, in some areas, and it causes as many problems as it solves.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
52. Blacksmiths could become mechanics or body repairmen. Today, are they to retrain to be robots or
Thu May 21, 2015, 04:23 PM
May 2015

Last edited Thu May 21, 2015, 05:06 PM - Edit history (1)

Chinese? Or simply, expect that their wages under pressure form automation will fall to a global mean wage set somewhere in Asia?

 

Travis_0004

(5,417 posts)
3. self driving trucks will be a lot safer
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:28 AM
May 2015

The fact is some jobs come and go. I imagine whil and buggy jobs are not as abundant as they once were either.

tech3149

(4,452 posts)
5. Boy! I have to admit to conflicting views on this subject.
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:44 AM
May 2015

I spent all of my working life on the road and am a motorsports enthusiast and know first hand how driving skills have deteriorated over the decades. I also recognize that no technology is immune from failures or degradation by bean counters that keep trying to do more with less.
I think I'd rather rely on the human capacity to adjust to constantly changing circumstances but we as a species have not proven that we can rise to the challenge as a whole. After all, the Darwin Awards were conceived for a reason.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
6. Passenger jets fly themselves too
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:44 AM
May 2015

Yet each one has two pilots and a full crew.

There will be a human in the cab at all times as well.

And he wont be tired from sleep deprivation, drunk or high either. And the 80,000 pound truck will be fully aware at all times of every vehicle on the road around it and all road conditions on a second by second basis 24/7 as long as its in motion.

I welcome self driving big rigs, the sooner they are on the road, the sooner all our lives will be better and safer.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
27. Passenger jets do not fly themselves.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:39 PM
May 2015

Patrick Smith, a commercial pilot, has written about this numerous times. Here's a link to his most recent:
http://www.askthepilot.com/pilotless-planes/

 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
41. You seem to have missed a distinction
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:30 PM
May 2015

Between "planes that fly themselves" and "pilotless planes".

Nobody is gripping a stick to keep a passenger jet at level flying on a constant bearing.

Trucks are doing that. Needlessly.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,365 posts)
49. In what world do you live in where drivers that are "drunk or high" is commonplace?
Thu May 21, 2015, 03:53 PM
May 2015

Last edited Sun May 24, 2015, 01:32 PM - Edit history (1)

I'll give you the fact that sleep deprivation is an issue in the industry in which I make my living, but trust me, if you think that a significant number of drivers, or at least enough to make you include the reference in your post, are drunk or high while driving down the road, you are seriously mistaken.

appalachiablue

(41,113 posts)
58. I've never known or heard of such drunk, high, irresponsible and sleep deprived truckers.
Thu May 21, 2015, 09:18 PM
May 2015

The drivers we've known are highly skilled, trained and conscientious. For Schneider, a national company the entrance examination is very rigorous; family was associated with the Preston 151 Line out of Maryland years ago that covered the east coast.

In # 22. From the USA Today article May 7, 2015, the Daimler American Unit CEO Martin Daum says, "it will be 10 to 15 years before drivers can actually get out from behind the wheel of a big rig while it drives itself."

ruffburr

(1,190 posts)
7. it won't stop there
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:45 AM
May 2015

Bartenders ,burger flippers, manual labor across the board will be like elevator operators gone, So when all these jobs are farmed out to robots the corporate owners will be in profit heaven, Do you for one instant think that they will help or even care what happens to those who are displaced? I'll answer for you, NOT. Do you believe that the politicians will set up education grants or training or guaranteed income for all? I highly doubt it . While robots could be a beneficial deal for all its how the PTB at that time deal with the inherent problems that will come with progress and corporate greed.

appalachiablue

(41,113 posts)
22. Appreciate your raising the truth of what's rarely mentioned, that apart from the robotic
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:13 PM
May 2015

owners who profit, there's irreversible technological unemployment coming for many in 10-20 years. In the US, 50% unemployment is forecast over the next 20 years by Oxford Martin in their 2013 Report and by other institutions like MIT's Technology Review. Advanced technology for many occupational skills is being worked on every day around the world.
As for truck drivers, there will be human drivers in the autonomous vehicles for about 10 more years, then the industry plans to implement a 'caravan system' with one driver-engineer in the front vehicle only. So expect many displaced truck drivers and all the associated businesses brought up in the OP article.

I just posted about this topic in reply to a DU OP or comment that the TPP will allocate money to universities for displaced workers to retrain for NURSING and TRUCK DRIVING. Obviously written a while ago by corporate heads whose last concern is US labor and job security.

Retraining out of work Americans to be truck drivers is particularly absurd since AI tech for driverless vehicles is established for several years now. Also, TRUCK DRIVERS salaries are the largest cost for trucking businesses. It's not just SAFETY that driverless trucks will accomplish, it's much reduced compensation for drivers, until almost no human drivers are used, and all the more profit for cos.

*The predicted vast changes to society also bring up the important issue of what products and freight exactly will these autonomous trucks be hauling when there are so many unemployed people without money to purchase goods and services.

*"Sign of the Apocalypse as Daimler Unleashes Self Driving Trucks in Nevada? Hardly!", May 7, 2015, By Bill Howard, Extreme Tech Blog:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/205160-sign-of-the-apocalypse-as-daimler-unleashes-self-driving-trucks-in-nevada-hardly#disqus_thread


~ NEVADA LICENSED SELF-DRIVING FREIGHTLINER TRUCK BY DAIMLER'S US SUBSIDIARY ~




USA TODAY, "Why Big Rig Trucks, Not Cars, are Best for Self-Driving Tech", May 7, 2015, By Chris Woodyard
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/05/07/self-driving-trucks-daimler/70952162/

>Snip

At the end of the article, Martin Daum, CEO of the Daimler American Unit who was interviewed said, "it will probably be 10 or 15 years before DRIVERS can actually get out from behind the wheel of a big rig while it drives itself."

appalachiablue

(41,113 posts)
88. That occurred to me too, like a caravan or convoy of trucks, train cars, tanks, horses with
Fri May 22, 2015, 12:00 PM
May 2015

one main controller in the lead. They could establish one specific lane for truck 'trains'. You get the idea from the video in #8, test drive in Spain sponsored by Volvo?, and from #22 the USA Today article has a video of a driver in the cab of a new driverless Daimler 18 wheeler on the road in Nevada.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
31. But before they go, I hope they get there 15 dollars an hour at
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:01 PM
May 2015

Least for a little while. It'd be nice for them to have extra money to have. Get the 15 dollar an hour before automation makes it unnecessary. It needs to be tomorrow not 2020 like some proposals. By 2020, we will not longer have servers at restaurant as they will be iPads like some restaurants already have.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
9. The horse and buggy comeback is always a trip
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:46 AM
May 2015

It's not the same world as it was back then obviously. It was mostly white men that got the new auto-manufacturing jobs right? It won't be so narrow these days.

Put more people out of work, as a goal, and now there's even more competition for whatever jobs are out there. That's going to drive down wages. There's also the automation factor which wasn't quite the same back in the day either. You're not just using a machine to help you do your job. People are trying their best to make them be able to do your job. We're not just sharpening an arrowhead to make hunting a little easier.

It's true that the future isn't set. We don't know what jobs will become available as a result of technological innovation. That also works both ways, and potentially at the same time. Some may do well, some may not. Some may get the great new job, some may not. That's always been the case, but, the future isn't set. Maybe they don't come up with something this time.

If so, then the government will probably, finally, just give people a basic income to exist day to day. That will have plenty of issues to work out too.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
33. Oh it's more then that
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:04 PM
May 2015

Companies used to have an entire staff that would type documents and do other administrative jobs that now one person does. We have to progress or we will be far behind the rest of the world.

global1

(25,237 posts)
10. Just Like They Pay Some Farmers Not To Farm - Corporations Will Have To Pay.....
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:52 AM
May 2015

people for not working.

 

bowens43

(16,064 posts)
11. so were horseless carriages......and telephones...and electricity....and computers......
Thu May 21, 2015, 11:53 AM
May 2015

things change

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
12. I'm not sure what you're suggesting? Outlaw some technology to save jobs?
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:00 PM
May 2015

You know that won't work, right?

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
18. No, but the current economic-industrial model is unsustainable.
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:43 PM
May 2015

If you replace workers with robots those workers no longer earn money and are no longer consumers. Economy slows down.

We need a model to keep unemployed people in the system as consumers. I read a scifi-novel where a universal income was proposed, paid for by corporations who use robots.

And we are not talking distant future here: We are talking 10-50 years, depending on the task the robot has to perform and depending on the costs of robot worker vs human worker. (Warehouses are already starting to replace workers with primitive robots who drive crates around. It already has begun.)

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
20. Oh, I agree, but I have no idea what to do about it. I'd be interested in hearing Krugman's ideas.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:05 PM
May 2015

Oneironaut

(5,490 posts)
29. I think a universal income is a great idea.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:56 PM
May 2015

This also keeps in mind that the cost of poverty in society is more than just paying people a base income. This concept is also true for healthcare -primary care (prevention) is by far less expensive than treating actual ailments. A base income is an investment as well - people will spend that money, which keeps the economy going.

Training people for new jobs is also a worthy investment. It's even more valuable.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
42. That money must come with zero strings attached
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:31 PM
May 2015

No bans on what to spend it on. I would rather not have the money if they keep it hostage. I don't need it.

Chathamization

(1,638 posts)
60. Productivity growth is down at the moment. It doesn't look like the robots are taking over anymore
Thu May 21, 2015, 10:37 PM
May 2015

than they were in the 90's.

ZX86

(1,428 posts)
92. Should we as a species aspire to nothing more
Fri May 22, 2015, 01:17 PM
May 2015

Last edited Fri May 22, 2015, 03:59 PM - Edit history (2)

than toiling away in some factory or field to sustain our basic necessities? Robots should replace humans doing physically demanding and repetitive work. Humans should invent, create, discover, love, and play. I get so tired of TPTB using outdated religion based philosophies to control the masses for their own benefit. Sex is bad. Suffering is noble. One must serve some higher unseen being etc.

I have an idea. How about we aspire to do what ever we want and let robots do the work. Write poetry, learn a musical instrument, paint pictures, explore the natural universe through science, spend time with family, bicycle, swim, ski, ride a skateboard. The idea we should aspire to nothing more than the existence of a plow mule for our entire lives is ludicrous.

Our philosophy of the work ethic and economic system has to change. The robot revolution is coming whether we like it or not. Probably the best transition towards this future is to gradually lower retirement age and tax corporations to pay the retirement benefits.

You heard right. Rich people should pay people not to work. Yes I know that sounds crazy. Almost as crazy as the tax payers paying agro-business not to grow crops and paying oil companies to sell oil.

Mr Dixon

(1,185 posts)
13. IMO
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:17 PM
May 2015

It would seem that the end-game would be robots and rich people. As self-serve counters in the grocery stores and Walmart are common. Self-driving car and trucks, some of them self-park also, bank tellers are rare, IT professionals are losing their jobs so pretty much anything that computers can do or robots that will the future count on it.

If there is an upside, hopefully they will replace the police with robot-cops, then at least some of us will not have a fear of the police.

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
16. Yep they will
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:27 PM
May 2015

People get all poutraged when the question of human intellect differentials are raised, pretending for some reason that it's ok to accept that some people are born with the superior inherent traits that make them fast, or strong, or co-ordinated, but that intelligence is somehow a flat curve with only nurture and opportunity making a difference. Pretend that all, say, D.J. Qualls needs to become an Olympic gold medal decathlete is dedication and good training facilities and you'd be justly laughed at, but woe betide anybody who says that effort and good schools with good amenities can't turn even the most hapless student into an engineer.

The trouble is that's bullshit. Just like some people will never be athletes, some will never be successful scholars no matter how hard they try or how much help they are given. And that means we need some jobs for which you don't need a successful education or a huge store of knowledge, or something other than jobs. I ran warehouses for quite a while. I met hundreds of truckers, and talked to a huge number of them while they were being unloaded or loaded. Some were fantastically intelligent (for people with the inclination and ability, a job that gives you all day to listen to audio lectures and books can result in one heck of a level of erudition - I envied those who demonstrated that inclination quite a bit). Most? Not so much. Will they be getting jobs servicing robots and computers, let alone designing them? Unlikely.

We do need to decide how we will as a society handle those intellectually incapable of handling a workplace where that kind of job is rapidly disappearing, where there are far fewer "uneducated" jobs than uneducated workers. Yes education and training must be part of that. It will be many generations before robot plumbers or coders are feasible. But that's just skimming the cream. The rest need something, be it minimum incomes, WPA style programs (my favorite, but will likely run afoul of both unions and special interests), job corps, etc.

Rochester

(838 posts)
19. Techies love to trot out the blacksmiths and buggy whip makers, but...
Thu May 21, 2015, 12:48 PM
May 2015

...no one ever asks what happened to the horses.

We're the horses this time.

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
23. The implications are... most troubling.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:14 PM
May 2015

7 billion humans.
Let's say 4 billion unskilled laborers.
Let's say we replace 1 in 4 with robots.
Now 1 billion humans are unemployable because robots are cheaper.
They do not produce goods anymore, and they don't consume enough to keep the economy going.

What shall we do with 1 billion unemployable humans?

As you said: The fate of the horses.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
24. Well, I'd love to hear your ideas.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:21 PM
May 2015

The video above is right in many ways. This is going to happen. Now.... what to do about it?

appalachiablue

(41,113 posts)
25. +100. They don't ask and they don't care. Machine-Tech worship and fantasy isn't my art.
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:23 PM
May 2015

The world, meaning the earth, seas, trees, mountains, animals, horses and all living things is the essence. Humans not so much, especially lately. Off to the glue factory it is!

davekriss

(4,616 posts)
53. Really you all should read Karl Marx
Thu May 21, 2015, 05:37 PM
May 2015

The issue is the capitalist owns the means of production.

These "means", like horses moving the buggy, involve hordes of low-skilled labor.

The capitalist lives off the surplus he can grab from the value created by workers and managers.

The capitalist, dreaming of either greater theft (um, profit), realizes that if he replaces these hordes with technology, even more of the value stream ends up in their pockets. The capitalist no longer has to pay the "dead" labor that built the machines.

This only works if the individual capitalist is ahead of the wave. As more and more labor is replaced by machines, demand shrinks. It becomes harder and harder to sell what they produce. Returns on capital shrink until they start gobbling each other up in mergers and acquisitions until, in most vectors of the economy, there are 1, 2, or 3 companies that own the lions share of each market. When near monopolies are established, then the individual oligarch gets to charge "rents" in excess of market value because the customer has no where else to turn.

As more and more is extracted from the customer's wallet, markets shrink and quality of life deteriorates, which will result in social unrest and even revolution. (Don't think the oligarchs don't know this, that's why they've been building a high-surveillance neo-police state.)

It doesn't have to be this way. The 99 don't have to stand confused and powerless while the 1 live in luxury like kings. Gawd, even Henry Ford understood the end-game of unmitigated greed. All lose in the end. There are alternate ways to organize civil society.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
69. Well, let's hear your ideas!
Fri May 22, 2015, 06:58 AM
May 2015

Marx was great at assessing some of the problems.

He was crap at coming up with solutions. Let's hear yours!

John_Doe80004

(156 posts)
21. I have been saying this about both the TPP and Social Welfare Spending
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:08 PM
May 2015

and these threats are well within the more immediate future than self driving trucks are, especially if the "R's" get their way.

just think what would happen if we suddenly yanked Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, Food Stamps, Section 8 housing and other social spending programs from the economy like the republicans are pushing to do. just look at what the SNAP (Food Stamp) cuts did to walmarts earnings last quarter. the amount of food stamp cuts is directly correlated with the amount of walmarts profit losses and these cuts are currently on a small scale. just imagine massive large scale cuts or complete abolishment of the social spending programs all together and all the industries that revolve around that spending, Nursing Homes, Hospitals, Doctors, Nurses, all the support staff, grocery stores and all their employees and massive collapse (from the trickle down of all these unemployed and suddenly billions a year being removed from the US economy) that would come from that, and then we get into the criminalization of being homeless.

God help this country if we get a completely Republican controlled federal government in 2016. if we do it's my belief that before 2020 we will see an entire economic and societal collapse. we are already looking at another financial collapse just in time for the 2016 elections, but this future i am talking about will dwarf what could ever possibly be in 2016 by leaps and bounds. it will make the 20 year great depression look like a walk in the park on a sunny day with birds chirping and the sound of creeks flowing.

the worst apocalyptic sci fi thriller that has ever been made won't come any where close to showing what life would be like under this future collapse. it would even dwarf anything hitler could have ever thought up in his wildest dreams.

and for people who say yeah, yeah we have had entirely republican controlled federal government before, well i say to you the republican party is an entirely new ballgame now post citizens united, mccutchinson and tea party.

the republican party is now dumbed down, crazier, and more theological then ever. just think of the entire government from the top down, (presidency, house and senate) being infested by Rand Paul's, Paul Ryan's, Pat Robertsons, and their ilk.

it will be a payday for the 1% to 0.001% and a nightmare for the rest of us.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
26. I hope that you do understand
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:27 PM
May 2015

that it's not like all 3.5 million will be displaced from their jobs all at the same time, right? It will be a transition as self-driving trucks are slowly introduced to the roads, and slowly replace human-driving tasks. I suspect such vehicles are rather expensive, and only corporations that operate fleets are likely to begin using them first. Even there, they will do so in increments.

Any game-changing technology has never changed the system literally overnight. There's always a transition period. And people will adapt, without the doomsday predictions so far in this thread.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
30. It didn't do that...before
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:56 PM
May 2015

The next game changing technology might change things overnight this time. Each one is different, and each one finds itself in a different context. Plus each transition period has been shorter than the previous one. We don't just sort of happen upon innovation anymore, we actively pursue it as a goal, even if we don't need it. It's almost the reason we exist. Who can come up with the new thing, who can do it faster, cheaper, and better. Nobody asks if we need it, we just do it. It must exist, whatever it is, because what happens if it doesn't? How can we deprive ourselves of something that we don't know we need?

Obviously nobody can say for sure how any of it will play out. If we could do that, we'd all win the lottery. There are upsides and downsides to everything. We tend to look at the upside of anything more often. Which is fine, but there's always the other side too. Many sides actually. The Green Revolution, saved countless numbers of lives. We also now have 7+ billion people on the planet, and they all need jobs and resources to consume. We also share the planet with many other forms of life that require resources to consume. It's also a finite planet.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
34. In the context of this thread,
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:10 PM
May 2015

I still feel the transition will be slow. Regular, human-driven rigs are insanely expensive. How much more will a self-driving rig cost? Not to mention the fact that you likely will have to buy a self-driving rig that was built that way, versus modifying an existing rig. It doesn't matter how much the technology to make it self-driving may go down in price. You'll still have to either spend the cost of a full and new rig for each human-driven rig you want to replace, or spend a hefty amount to modify an existing rig, if that's even possible.

No matter how you may look at all game-changing technology overall, each type has different transition periods. Self-driving rigs are going to take longer to displace human-driven versions due to costs. It's not really comparable to any other game-changer.

haele

(12,645 posts)
40. Transition periods are narrowing from the horse and buggy days.
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:28 PM
May 2015

My mother in law, growing up in an outlaying neighborhood in a small Alabama city the 1940's, still lived in a house that needed to have all the indoor plumbing completed (no hot water heater), and they had a pony cart to get to "downtown" and go shopping until she was in high school (otherwise, they biked and walked), even as most of their neighbors had cars.
Now-a-days, adaptation to technology is increasing at logarithmic pace, as the implementation of new technology quickly leads to the development of it's replacement. I've seen the impact that a home computer has done to "office", not to mention drafting and modeling/simulation, research, and other supplemental support tasking; even 10 years ago, a service center might have three to five people just to handle paperwork for techs and/or sales people; now, sales people do their own paperwork and tech support is automated to the degree that menus replace the local techs, and shift the support to one or two dedicated technicians at a central office.
Working from anywhere affects transit and office maintenance jobs. Administration can be automated; my company just got rid of their travel group, the "mail room", and half of the supply support group because of their new software - the employee spends an hour or so on company time to do his/her own online search at the company supplies request or travel page, makes the "e-request", the manager confers with a departmental financial controller who checks the automated contracts accounting and budgeting tracker, and they both then click to approve or not - and the tickets, or supplies, or whatever is delivered directly to the employee.
That was a whole division of 50 employees, along with 28 other jobs (and associated overhead) that just disappeared three years ago. I know four people who are still looking for permanent work; they can get "Kelly Jobs" or contract out on small jobs, but no one is hiring staff anymore - and when you're trying to pay off a student loan or put kids through school, you need the security of a full-time job.
Half of the pharmacy we go to get my husband's medications is automated. A good amount of nursing staffs are automated.
And as more and more of the better-paying larger companies automate, these people have fewer and fewer options to become re-employed at.
Those jobs can't be transitioned into supporting new technology, because the technology supports itself, unlike the advent of the automobile or more advanced factory machinery. A blacksmith could easily transition to an auto line mechanic, a buggy-whip maker or carriage maker could transition to auto upholstery, body-work, or floor operator.
There is very little "line mechanic" or "body work", or even "floor operator" job to transition to. The floor operator is now one or two people at a monitor screen looking at indicators, and the machinery on the floor pretty much operates itself.

We are looking at the end of mass work due to automation, not a transition from one technology to another that could still employ a lot of people with a little bit of re-training.

In the late 1990's, Thomas Friedman, of the "Flat World" fame, dictated that the loss of US manufacturing and customer/technical support jobs will be made up by an increase of "service jobs" - that the factory worker will be able to transition to supporting a global economy by becoming a warehouse employee or driver, and the service/support technician can just as easily transition to retail or personal service support for investors and shareholders whose profit increases will spur consumer purchases, that will then drive the economy - because, of course, every 5%'er and above will hire personal shoppers, shippers, and other staff with the increases they'd see in their profits. In the world of Trickle-down economics, anyone and everyone in the US can be an investor and end up make tens to hundreds of thousands a year with all that spare money they made while being overpaid for their minimal production...


Problem is, there are very few new transitional/replacement technology jobs for people who can't get into MIT or an advanced STEM school that aren't being automated. There are very few new transitional/replacement service jobs that aren't already being automated.
There are is still a fairly large amount of openings for jobs that are entrepreneurial in nature, but 1) you have to know someone to get into them and 2) if you're going to start your own business, you need money to keep you going for at least three years to get it off the ground - if you're lucky and it will get off the ground.
And the problem with entrepreneurial work is that once the fashion or situation that drove the customer to look to your business to meet his/her needs, you're pretty much done, unless you can catch the next fashion or situation.

I just got my degree in Business/with a minor in managing Emerging Technologies at a fairly liberal University. It looks pretty grim for the average unskilled or semi-skilled worker.

Haele

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
46. And yet, it's still going to take time,
Thu May 21, 2015, 03:01 PM
May 2015

much more than a few years to implement self-driving trucks (per the OP of this whole thread.) See my post directly above yours on why

We're also talking about a field that's spread out over the whole continent. It's not like there's going to be 3.5 million out of work truckers in one region/state/city. When you consider the amount of time it's going to take to replace all rigs to self-driving types, then you've got plenty of time for folks to find other areas of work, whether through retraining, re-educating, or whatever.

People will find work. I think y'all are selling the adaptability of folks short.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
65. Not only that, but they may only be economical (at first) for long-haul rides
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:44 AM
May 2015

which will mean existing drivers will get more last-mile rides.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
70. Good point.
Fri May 22, 2015, 07:10 AM
May 2015

I recall a futurist on an Al Jazeera show optimistically stating that all vehicles would be self-driving in 10-15 years. I guess people like that never factor in the poor, who can't afford to buy new cars and have to often wait for the beater stage of vehicles. Maybe all new vehicles will be self-driving, but it'll still take quite a while before all vehicles are like that.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
71. Few people will bother to own a self-driving car
Fri May 22, 2015, 07:48 AM
May 2015

Uber or something like it will have fleets of them and you'll order one as you need it.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
77. That sounds more like the way it'll work.
Fri May 22, 2015, 08:15 AM
May 2015

It reminds me of some of these stationary grid-based systems of mass-transit, where the automated vehicles are overhead and make using mass-transit easier than even taking the subway or light-rail. People will then get rid of their personal vehicles for the most part, and lose the high-cost of maintaining one (maintenance, fuel, cleaning, insurance, storage/parking.) I'd give up my car if a self-driving fleet was available

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
78. That's the idea. I'm sure there will still be enthusiasts
Fri May 22, 2015, 08:23 AM
May 2015

who maintain and drive cars, but I think it's mostly just going to make transportation a whole lot cheaper and easier for the vast majority of people.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
79. There will always be "gear heads"
Fri May 22, 2015, 08:30 AM
May 2015

and I could consider myself one to a point. I'd love to see more tracks available as well as some of these exotic supercars available to try out for those of us that can only gawk at them on Top Gear. I could get my tight-cornering and fast-curves fix without missing it from the self-driving car I sleep in on the way to and from work

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
84. I can even predict the nostalgic op-eds about the kids who don't know about driving around aimlessly
Fri May 22, 2015, 09:42 AM
May 2015

And those op-eds will have a point, but I also imagine the kids will come up with their own amazingly creative things to do with these cars, that we will decry as uncouth barbarisms.

Oneironaut

(5,490 posts)
28. And revolutionary...
Thu May 21, 2015, 01:47 PM
May 2015

Freight costs can be cut, and commerce will be improved greatly. This means lower prices and a higher standard of living for everyone.

Does anyone miss blacksmiths? Elevator operators? Horse-drawn cabbies? All of these jobs are pointless now. The people that did them just learned new skills.

It's not callous. It's a fact - all jobs eventually become obsolete, and new jobs are created. It sucks for the people that lost their jobs, but society as a whole benefits.

In a truly innovative society, new jobs are always being created.

1939

(1,683 posts)
35. Sci Fi
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:13 PM
May 2015

Sci Fi seems to fall into two schools of thought on this one.

The optimistic Sci Fi has people working a couple of hours a day, four days a week and going crazy with too much leisure and looking for outlets.

The pessimistic Sci Fi has the useless "eaters" crammed into space going cattle cars and sent out to colonize star systems and ship raw materials back to keep earth going.

historylovr

(1,557 posts)
39. What new jobs?
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:23 PM
May 2015

It sucks for the people? That's not callous?

Well I suppose the very wealthy will always need someone to scrub their toilets.


malthaussen

(17,183 posts)
48. The very wealthy will always need menials...
Thu May 21, 2015, 03:17 PM
May 2015

... not to do the work, which could easily be automated, but to have someone to sneer at and make them feel superior.

-- Mal

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
66. Lots of renewable energy plants are hiring. So is biotech. So are a lot of small farms
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:47 AM
May 2015

My brother's IBEW hall is doing a recruitment drive for retrofitting businesses for solar (they anticipate a lot of work from that coming up), and he guesses residential will be about 5-10 years behind industrial/commercial.

Those are things hipsters like so there's more attention on them, but if I had to guess what three growth industries would be in the coming generation, it would be those three.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
86. I take it your username is ironic
Fri May 22, 2015, 10:54 AM
May 2015

History shows that changes in technology leads to productivity and wealth gains across society.

Doom and gloom predictions are a dime a dozen. Change is inevitable, it's messy, individual people will wind up worse, but society as a whole will be better off.

historylovr

(1,557 posts)
91. Yeah. Sure.
Fri May 22, 2015, 01:02 PM
May 2015
It's true I'm no expert on the industrial age, or the modern era at large, being a medievalist. I do understand, however, that new technologies replace older ones, and generally there are new jobs created from this change. I also understand that there are losers when this happens, even though society at large benefits. I just can't be callous about it or shrug in indifference when people, for whatever reason, are unable to fit in with this new dynamic because there are no new jobs for them.

Atman

(31,464 posts)
32. Those big rigs have bedrooms. Truck drivers aren't checking into the Motel 6.
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:03 PM
May 2015

Not to say the larger point isn't valid on some level. Truck drivers still need to stop and eat. But most of those trucks have beds, televisions, fridges...quite nicely equipped. They pull over into a truck stop or rest area and climb into bed for some shut-eye. A motel is just an added expense that no one wants to pay for.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
45. Yep, exactly.
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:50 PM
May 2015

Motels will not be impacted.

And truck stops are frequented to a huge extent by other motorists. Seems a bit alarmist to me.

 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
90. I find your definition of bedroom mildly amusing.
Fri May 22, 2015, 12:29 PM
May 2015

A 3/8" thick fiberglass shell. 1 small bed, in my case shared between two drivers who didn't shower every day. As part of a team, we were rolling 24/7. When I got out of bed to drive, my co-driver got in it.

Ooh, truck stops! I love those things! When we DID stop long enough to sleep, we tossed a coin to see who got the top bunk, no larger than a cot. If we were lucky and parked before dark, the bathrooms/showers were less than a hundred yards away.

Talk to A HERETIC I AM. I believe the only reason he doesn't stay at Motel 6 is because of its being below his standards.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
44. Truck drivers are not 'unskilled'
Thu May 21, 2015, 02:47 PM
May 2015

My dad's a trucker.

I have a hard time believing they will ever be replaced.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
74. They will. And Taxi's too. Used to have elevator operators too. Technology waits for no one. nt
Fri May 22, 2015, 07:56 AM
May 2015

bigbrother05

(5,995 posts)
82. Elevators operate in a defined space/location, vehicles don't
Fri May 22, 2015, 09:31 AM
May 2015

Where routes and destinations can be defined, driverless could be possible as a replacement to buses, light rail, or taxis. Self driving is more closely aligned with autopilot. The vehicle self corrects for traffic condition, but the onboard operator handles the "first mile/last mile" portion with a tech assist as appropriate.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
109. You are short sighted on how technology advances. And landing a plane is much harder than driving. n
Fri May 22, 2015, 07:55 PM
May 2015

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
83. It's basically no longer in our hands then
Fri May 22, 2015, 09:38 AM
May 2015

Technology has a mind of its own. It's using us to grow and evolve. Sort of like the alien in Alien.

HughBeaumont

(24,461 posts)
47. I always have questions for Doom and Gloom Disguised as Optimism threads such as this.
Thu May 21, 2015, 03:08 PM
May 2015

What ARE these new irreplaceable careers going to be?

What's the next "killer app"? What's the next "Steel"? What are our future replacement "industries"?

Where's the next "internet" going to be realized? Is it going to be infrastructure? Energy? Nano-and Bio-tech? Environmental sciences?

Where is the money for these multiple trips to college going to come from to train for these careers when the average worker has no savings and limited prospects? The average college education costs between $10,000 and $50,000. Will that come from the worker's ASS or the money tree in the back yard?

What if the worker is already financing (as I am) a child's education?

In a world where corporations value American STEM talent as far as they can find cheaper overseas counterparts, how does a person who is now forced to enter that field (never mind whether or not they're INCLINED or MEANT for that field .. . they'll learn to like it, I gues . . . .?) going to compete with the multiple thousands of underpaid workers currently IN these fields that are struggling to survive?

How is the average worker going to be able to consume with no paycheck coming in? How do their bills get paid? How do they retire to make way for younger workers? How does capitalism; better yet, how does American government continue with no revenue, public OR private?

Realistically, between reduced job prospects, astronomical student loan debt, automation and everyone in public and private power subscribing to cheap labor corporatism, how will a Millennial be able to survive, much less retire?

How does one answer the hundreds of thousands, possibly a few or several million, workers that will suddenly have no paycheck and no prospects due to displacement by automation, redundancy, job offshoring or just general "FREE MARKETZ CAPITALISM"?

"Oh well, not MY problem." "Shoulda, woulda, coulda." "Should have prepared, should have thought ahead"??

"Adapt or die" is nothing but a cold-hearted cop-out and a losing alternative to an actual long-term plan for displaced workers. You all attest that futures can and always will work out . . . but what if this time, and sorry to say, it's very much a certainty . . . IT DOESN'T??

Some (like Thomas Friedman and Marc Andreessen, for example) giggle gleefuly at "Creative Destruction". Guess when it's not them that's affected, it's hunky dory, right?

Me, I have a heart. My crime, I guess. I want to at least pretend to have some sort of plan for our workers when this hammer drops.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
63. Biotech and renewables are probably a good guess, along with "small ag"
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:42 AM
May 2015
Where is the money for these multiple trips to college going to come from to train for these careers when the average worker has no savings and limited prospects?

Where did the money come to train the people in the 1800's displaced by wheat threshers to work in factories?

The average college education costs between $10,000 and $50,000. Will that come from the worker's ASS or the money tree in the back yard?

Why would a biotech "grunt" worker need to go to college when she can be trained much more cheaply at a trade school or apprenticeship?

hunter

(38,309 posts)
50. I think I'm in the minority here thinking that killing jobs is good.
Thu May 21, 2015, 03:54 PM
May 2015

90% of work is crap.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law

It's bad for people, it's bad for the planet.

What we need is some sort of national dividend, a guaranteed income, so we can all be "trust fund" kids who never have to worry about hunger, unsafe housing, or lack of access to appropriate medical care.

That's right, pay people not to work, to go to school, to create art, to restore wilderness areas and wetlands, to plant community gardens, to look after their neighbors.

We don't need any more of this destructive crap we call "economic productivity" and profit.

Strive to make everyone a creative producer of their own art, not a mindless big box store and automobile dealer "consumer."

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
64. +1. A social dividend makes higher unemployment a great thing
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:43 AM
May 2015

And, hell, if Nixon was for it, I see no reason we can't get more Republicans on board eventually...

 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
54. Take a look at any pulp advertising paper like the Greensheet...
Thu May 21, 2015, 05:52 PM
May 2015

and one of the few remaining occupations for non-college track people is "Drivers." Some of the jobs actually pay well.

"Well, the ICC is a-checkin' on down the line
I'm a little over weight and my log book's way behind..."

Six Days on the Road

DiverDave

(4,886 posts)
55. people can hack networks with a cellphone
Thu May 21, 2015, 05:52 PM
May 2015

Just wait when there are self driving trucks.

I'll disable every one I see.
Not on the road with my kids, no way.

This isn't about anything but $$$$$ for the trucking companys and putting the
public at risk isn't something they care about.

They TELL you they are all about safety then pressure you to drive sick, tired...

I know, I have driven a truck for 23 years.

 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
59. One thing a machine will never be able to do is anticipate.
Thu May 21, 2015, 10:04 PM
May 2015

I get the feeling many posting here are convinced there are major safety gains in store when we simply turn over every day tasks to machines.

No machine will be able to anticipate which way that deer (or worse yet, a cow) is going to bolt. No machine will ever be able to anticipate which lane the old man in front of it is going to pick or how he's going to react to the squirrel that runs in front of his car. Say he panics and stands on his brakes? Say there's a car blocking the path the machine might decide to take to avoid the old man?

The people poo-pooing job losses will be the first to say "every new technology has hiccups" as a way of minimizing the dead family killed by one of the new machines.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
75. Wow, how short sighted......
Fri May 22, 2015, 08:01 AM
May 2015

I imagine people whined about cars because they were so fast and then said people will die in car accidents. Which they did.

Do you realize most auto accidents are driver error?

But we added much technology to cars, and now they are safer than ever.

Same will happen to automatic cars/trucks.

Airline accidents are lower than ever! That is because of technology.

In 10-15 years we will have driver-less cars/trucks. And they will be much safer than humans.

 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
76. I didn't say they wouldn't be safe. My post WAS about driver error.
Fri May 22, 2015, 08:10 AM
May 2015

The actions of other drivers are something machines will only be able to react to, not anticipate was my only point. Because of that; they won't be the panacea they're being made out to be.

That is, until cars that can be driven by humans are banned on public roads.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
93. Humans can't anticipate either, we guess, and I would actually think that a computer...
Fri May 22, 2015, 02:28 PM
May 2015

would be able to take into account more variables while observing an erratic driver or a wild animal, and react much faster than a human can. So even in this, a computer would be the safer driver.

 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
95. If humans can't anticipate; from whence does the word originate?
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:06 PM
May 2015

Tell ya a little story...

I ride a Harley. Not a biker by any stretch, just a guy who rides motorcycles, and that's my bike of choice. Now, when I'm approaching an intersection where the light favors me, I'm sitting straight up, ready to grab a handful of clutch and brake, and unless it's a BLIND intersection, I've already identified any possible danger to the left and right. I would ask you; am I anticipating, or guessing?

My Wife tells people she's safe on my scooter because I'm looking out for my OWN ass, so by extension she's not worried about HERS getting hurt.

So. Anticipate or guess? Which one is this human doing?

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
96. We make guesses, some are educated, many are not, but the point is that I don't...
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:09 PM
May 2015

see how this is uniquely human, nor why computers wouldn't be able to do the same. Anticipation is a shortcut word for a prediction we made based on a guess, educated or not. And again, the situation you laid out is one that a computer would also be aware of, and able to react to much more quickly to than a human can.

ON EDIT: To clarify the use of the word anticipate, you are right about the usage, but I don't see how machines aren't capable of anticipating situations with random elements in them. Indeed, with the sensors and cameras available, they will not have issues such as blind spots, inattention, distraction, etc. that human drivers suffer from.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
108. "Anticipation" is basically programming, be it in a human brain or a silicon one.
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:40 PM
May 2015

Here's a link you might like, from an Autodesk blog on something they call "Reality Computing" and a quote from it on self-driving vehicles:

At CES 2015, NVIDIA—a company that a lot of people associate with gaming technology but is also a leading developer of autonomous automotive platforms—demonstrated its new Drive PX and DriveCX computers that enable self-driving cars.

The Drive PX processes data from a range of sensors such as laser, radar, or cameras that capture and monitor the environment around the car. It then uses that live data combined with very sophisticated feature recognition technology it calls ‘deep neural learning’ to dynamically recognize objects around the car including other vehicles, street signs, road works, pedestrians, and so on. The Drive CX is the digital cockpit computer—in charge of speech processing, high-resolution digital instrument display, navigation, and infotainment graphics.

One thing I know I've read elsewhere is the concept that the cars will communicate with each other. That way, you have an entire mass of vehicles that know the lay of the road, as well as the location of the vehicles that aren't self-driving. My educated guess is that the software will take that kind of thing into account and have the vehicles drive accordingly, or in anticipation of any number of unsafe driving actions.

And really, if you think about it, every kind of unsafe form of driving is a finite number and can be easily programmed for the software to anticipate. As for animals, we could probably get our state governments to install extra sensors in areas where they put up the various animal-crossing signs that would then communicate with the vehicles. Problem not necessarily solved, just additional precautions taken.

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
67. 1. Just have a look at the OP. 2. Your premise is faulty.
Fri May 22, 2015, 05:00 AM
May 2015

1. "If you think otherwise, please provide examples."

2. The introduction of robots WILL NOT mean that machines replace workers. It WILL mean that one kind of workers replaces another kind of workers.

Your question should be: "What do you think of replacing american workers with chinese workers?"
"What do you think of replacing human workers with robot workers?"

Intelligent robots won't be a tool that increases the productivity of a worker (a wheat threshing machine still needs an operator), they will be the worker/operator himself.

greendog

(3,127 posts)
85. There will still be "drivers" on these trucks.
Fri May 22, 2015, 10:32 AM
May 2015

The industry needs an actual person to be responsible when things go wrong. The difference with automated equipment will be that the "driver" will be paid a much lower wage.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
89. Initially yes, but I would imagine that would only be transitional.
Fri May 22, 2015, 12:23 PM
May 2015

Trucks will be designed without cabs at all. It will save weight.

FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
94. Driverless Trucks Taking Over At California Ports
Fri May 22, 2015, 02:51 PM
May 2015
http://www.thetruckersreport.com/driverless-trucks-taking-over-at-california-ports/

California’s twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach together handle about a third of all U.S. cargo. $470 billion in cargo moved through their harbor last year alone. It makes sense therefore that the management is always looking for ways to run more efficiently. Which is why they have announced that starting next year they will begin phasing in driverless trucks to sort and move all of that cargo.

This announcement comes hard on the heels of Freightliner’s unveiling of the first ever autonomous commercial truck licensed to drive on American highways, but these trucks will be very different. They will be guided by magnets embedded in the asphalt of the port and aren’t designed for use on public roads.

~ snip ~

In their effort to “redefine normal,” the port is also implementing remote controlled cranes which will pick the cargo containers off of ships and place them on the waiting vehicles.


 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
98. This makes sense for first usage of autonomous trucks(and possibly cars), in environment where....
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:19 PM
May 2015

variables are controlled. Truly automatic vehicles on public roads are a few more years off, and the transition will be messy and inconsistent.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
99. This is only the beginning, and I don't think the world economy is equipped to handle it at this...
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:22 PM
May 2015

time.

If automation and near-future technology is fully implemented, then within the next decade or so, perhaps up to 30 to 40% of the entire workforce in the United States will be displaced, and ultimately unemployable. This includes many service and white collar office jobs, replaced by computer programs and various machines.

AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
101. And the techies don't care because they look down the rest of society anyway
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:38 PM
May 2015

And especially because the most affected are the "unintelligent" people.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
103. That's actually completely untrue, I am one of those techies, and we are talking about...
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:42 PM
May 2015

jobs that affect both high skilled and specialized workers and lower skilled, more general laborers, including many of those same techies.


ON EDIT: There is a reason why a basic minimum income is being talked about more.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
111. It could be a golden opportunity rather than something to fear, but only if governments, culture...
Sun May 24, 2015, 01:24 PM
May 2015

and the economy catch up.

Not to mention the pace of adoption, it could be slow, and hence will allow us to be have enough time to prevent large scale employment disruptions. Eventually though, I don't see how we can avoid adopting some type of policy for government provided minimum income. This will be a base level, hopefully based on localized cost of living estimates, for basic food, shelter, health care, etc.

If wide scale implementation of renewable energy continues to develop, with the pace increasing, then energy will be cheap and plentiful, this is important for the next steps.

A shift in culture will be needed to redefine work, we could possibly have a majority of the population that aren't able to work, not due to disability, but because robot labor is cheaper. Eventually we will have to change what it means to actually work, perhaps highly specialized micro-economies, that are highly localized. Hobbies become productive, in a sense, and the majority of people will participate in such activities, mostly because, by our nature, most humans aren't lazy.

If this is combined with highly automated economy and services with cheap and renewable energy, we could be face a truly post scarcity society, one that is more efficient at providing human services, where jobs are optional, and you could literally do whatever you want without fearing that you will be evicted from your home, or know where you next paycheck is coming from. There will still be income disparities, there will always be a market for hand crafted or highly creative works, think Etsy and local markets, hand grown food, etc. and like now, they will be luxuries or highly localized. The inventive and innovators will still make money, on top of the minimum income, etc.

It could be the beginning of worldwide paradise, but only IF, and it is a big if, our politicians have the foresight to rise up to the challenges of the future. I think, on a certain level, they are, at least on the Democratic/Democratic Socialist side, with Obama talking about free 2 year college, and Bernie Sanders talking about implementing free 4 year college. Those would be important first steps, along with some free retraining courses for the transition, to minimize unemployment in the short term.

To give an example, driverless cars could actually make transportation more accessible for a large number of people, especially in North America. Unfortunately, most of our cities are car-centric, and as a result, public transportation doesn't serve many places where people live or work. Driverless cars may alleviate some of these issues, in particular for the elderly and disabled, people who cannot drive cars. It could also help the poor in such areas as well, driverless cars will be more efficient and safer than human driven cars, and cheaper to operate as well. People who cannot or can only barely afford cars would benefit from not having to own one if overall costs of renting, as needed, the services of a driverless car is cheaper than maintaining insurance and maintenance on an owned vehicle.

AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
100. This at the very least is another method of reducing the bargaining power of workers
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:35 PM
May 2015

Along with letting in Mexican truck drivers into the United States due to NAFTA.

The only way workers have bargaining power is if there aren't any other alternatives. Put the alternatives up (which the oligarchs work hard to make available) and workers have little bargaining power, having to accept whatever pay employers are willing to give.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
104. If it leads to more efficiency and, with the right public policies, a better standard of living...
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:46 PM
May 2015

for everyone, then that's great. We will have to radically change both our cultural idea of what a job is along with our economy and public welfare system to prevent huge disruptions.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
107. Well, first step is to get Republicans out of office, they hate any public policies that...
Fri May 22, 2015, 04:14 PM
May 2015

benefit the public.

The issue is this, the displacement of jobs, and possible mass unemployment, will happen despite what the government wants. Automated vehicles are the first step, and I don't see, once its demonstrated that they are significantly less accident prone than humans, that neither the public nor corporations will demand anything less than full automation of driving related services.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
105. That second paragraph is the multiplier effect in a nutshell
Fri May 22, 2015, 03:51 PM
May 2015

I've driven over a 18,000 miles on a Freightliner but I was often scared when there were cars around next to me, especially right by me. It felt like I could easily cause damage. Outside of around the block, a few miles the first time I had any real experience as in a long trip was the "Cascade Loop" though I didn't know that was what it was called -- just knew that was the chosen way to get Yakima and I the German town. Remember the Germany looking town very well so searching for that so here is from Seattle to the Germany looking town in 9 minutes



That, I didn't drive long at all. 5 minutes maybe, I was scared to death but it isn't hard. Turning doesn't take much to get the hang of, as soon as the center axle is clear of the object you can come in from the wide turn. Backing is a challenge, first drill I got in down perfect because I watched one of the trainers do it but he did it driving regular speed or fast cons so I did it the same way but at "do it again" it seemed I lost all sense of direction, I had no idea where my trailer was going -- long afternoon. Think trying to force it but I think it takes skill or maybe it is easier than it looks. Don't know the challenges too much driving long haul in the US, I remember my trainer sounding the engine brake near the German town even though signs were all-around he said it as if life or death you're going to use your engine brake. Later that year maintainence were complaining of the engines and said drivers were using the engine brake too much. I never used it but once when I was in the mountains (not in the US) and the air brake cords were cut so I was maintaining a longer following/stopping distance than normal -- this was my first time with over-the-wheel experience on my longest distance haul for me personally. Several months later same thing happened but on mostly flat hand and when I got there one of the driver trainers said I was officially a driver or whatever because that happen and got to the destination without wrecking or loosing my load but he didn't know I did the same thing, with pretty much no experience (outside of driven the vehicle which I was adjusted to) & challenging terrain (like Cascade Loop without the scenery though it was dark I couldn't see shit so don't know how the scenary looked). The other driver trainer got jealous or something there (the same one who was my trainer on the Cascade Loop

Hold on confusing there. The driver trainer with the praise was mine from Seattle to Yakima, who wisely took the wheel from me on that r9ute. From Yakima to the Germany town was the other guy didn't let me drive or one the way back which I don't have issues with -- just clarifying between the 2

OK -- the other driver started giving me a hard time because I was probably using the air brakes too much. The first time the were cut by the trailer during a turn -- the second time, can't remember what exactly but a leak or something the cause different but the brake problem the same. I know if civilian drivers, pretty sure there is mandatory downtime and all that sure but they worked us to death. I can't how many overall 24-hour days, I worked but I know I do not want to be driving tired in those things. Many will train you and Swift seemed really great but didn't want me after he wanted to look at my DD214 (all it says is "drug abuse" but mentioning THC and awhile ago relationship problems which were solved by not having a relationship he wasn't interested anymore) so bad when I probably would have been better off not mentioning my driving experience but ability to smoke weed every now and then was more of an interest at-the-time though now I hardly ever see it around anymore plus gives me a bad social phobia which didn't used to give me that before.

Anyway, I imagine a self-driving avoiding accident like those commercials where the car prevents the accident before the driver does? I can't imagine the logistics for that, probably need people to deliver their own jobs on a flatbed. "Nothing happens until something moves" - US Army Transportation Corps motto.
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