How to tell if someone's politics are evidence-based, in two simple questions.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

Question 1: ask them what policies they think would be best for America (or whatever country they live in) if implemented by the government (don't worry about the electoral impact).

Question 2: ask them what policies they think would be most likely to get the party they support the most votes - set principles aside, and just come up with a platform to win.

If their answers to the two questions are the same, or indeed not significantly difference then either that's a coincidence so striking as to border on the miraculous, or they're not thinking clearly about the second question, and allowing their wishes and the answer to the first to cloud their judgement.

And it seems an awful lot of people do make that mistake.

(As a shorter way of doing this, you could just ask them to list some good but unpopular polices and some bad but popular ones; again, if they struggle, they're probably not thinking clearly).

[BainsBane]

1. I see it as symptomatic

of an inability to see outside their own frame of reference. The assume what they want and believe is universal. It is often accompanied by derision of those who disagree, even slightly.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

2. I think the internet is accompanied by derision of those who disagree, even slightly.

I agree about the inability to see outside their own frame of reference, though.

[BainsBane]

6. Let me restate that

No one can see beyond their own frame of reference, but some assume their experiences are universal and therefore dismiss anyone who disagrees with them. Others are willing to listen and consider the perspectives of people from different walks of life, and understand that their way of thinking is not the only legitimate one.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

3. To answer my own questions:

Good, unpopular policies (in the context of the USA): sanctions on Israel, gun control, probably single-payer health care, large tax rises on the rich (although I think small or medium-sized ones would be good without being unpopular), a variety of forms of sweeping constitutional reform, defence cuts, accepting decline in American living standards as a price worth paying to boost living standards in the third world.

Bad, popular policies: the reverse of the above, essentially. I actually find this question much harder, because while there are lots of things that will clearly lose votes, I'm much less confident about what policies - bad or otherwise - would win them.

[jeff47]

8. Polling demonstrates you're wrong.

Gun control, single-payer and tax increases on the rich all poll very well. So no, they are not unpopular. AFAIK sanctions on Israel hasn't been polled, but two-state solution/recognizing a Palestinian state does well on polls. Defense cuts depends on what exactly you cut.

They are unpopular with political pundits and Republicans. Whose existence is only loosely coupled with reality.

As for living standards, economics is not a zero-sum game. You don't have to drag everyone else down in order to lift others up.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

9. I place far more faith in revealed than in declared preference.

What policies people say they support when polled is a very poor predictor of what candidates they actually vote for.

[jeff47]

10. That's because candidates are rarely reality based.

And turnout is abysmal because of all the over-caution by candidates.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. There have been any number of polls showing that on single issues, Americans actually favour

all sorts of 'liberal' policies. That, indeed, a large liberal 'wish list' falls solidly within what a majority of Americans support, often by 2-1 margins.

Then they turn around and elect politicians who won't ever implement those polices.

A lot of the people who bother to vote don't actually vote based on policies.

[hughee99]

7. I think people, even republicans, support all sorts of "liberal" policies as long as they don't feel

like they're paying for them.

[Panich52]

5. Answer to 2nd may depend on whether one thinks conservs or libs in majority, or likely to show up

And that conception can be affected by many factors: proclivity of neighborhood/district, attention to polls (and whose polls), concepts of voter ID or other regs on turnout ...

I know I try to be realistic on 2nd question (of course, I'm right on 1st ) but I'm sure my thoughts on what sells may be quite off the mark. My immediate neighborhood for sure wouldn't vote for my ideas on question 1 ("stop Obama's wsr on coal" signs everywhere last 2 pres elections) but city area is maybe a tossup...