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Fri May 29, 2015, 10:03 AM

So the new National Quinnipiac poll was published yesterday

As expected, Hillary still has a substantial lead:
5. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?

I tried to post results but the tabular nature of the results gets hosed and is unreadable, please go to the link and look at question 5, and the trend for question 5.

While Hillary has been pretty steady, Bernie has nearly doubled support this month from 8 points to 15 points continuing a trend that doubled support last month when he jumped 4 points to 8 points.

That's not the bit I found interesting though. More or less what I expected. What I didn't expect was question 6:
6. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)


Hillary's numbers are nearly double Bernies.

Question 19 is also interesting:
19. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

45 favorable
47 unfavorable
5 Don't know enough

Clearly, Hillary has a problem with independent voters 39F - 51U.

Question 39 is Bernie's turn:
39. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

19 favorable
18 unfavorable
62 Don't know enough

But the big question that I wish they had asked about Bernie also is:
44. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?


39 - Yes
53 - No

Again, those pesky I voters are in play again here.

If I were working on Hillary's campaign, I would be concerned about these results.




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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 10:05 AM

1. Clinton should be concerned? Why? Is there some kind of election anytime soon?

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 10:05 AM

2. I doubt the campaign is worried this far from the elections.

Everyone on her staff expects her numbers to go up soon after her big June rally.

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #2)

Fri May 29, 2015, 10:37 AM

3. She's a known quantity.

 

It's not likely her favorables will get better. As Sanders becomes better known, it's very likely his favorables will improve. To the point where he starts taking votes from Hillary... she is likely getting some support from those who view her unfavorably, but support her anyway because they don't know any other candidate or want to support a front runner. I'm quite sure her campaign is worried about Sanders even at this early stage, but simply haven't come up with a solution.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #3)

Fri May 29, 2015, 11:05 AM

6. The favorability rating you are alluding to is among all voters, not just Democrats

Among Democrats her favorability rating is 85%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us05282015_U32trdf.pdf


Page 12.


So your assertion that "she is likely getting some support from those who view her unfavorably" doesn't appear to be supported by the facts.

I am confident she will address her weakness among independents to the point she can mitigate her losses among them in the general election as the current occupant of the White House did.

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #2)

Fri May 29, 2015, 10:45 AM

4. I believe she is leading her presumptive GOP opponents by anywhere from four to eighteen points.

And this is after she is has been a pinata for the press for how long ? The past three months?


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Response to leftofcool (Reply #2)

Fri May 29, 2015, 10:52 AM

5. Actually if they are not they are rank beginners

 

any campaign, worth their salt, will try to correct that this early. It's nice to know we have rank beginners running it. (Like city council races where sometimes there are polls).

In other words, like any other campaign, it will be tweaked, or they are chums.

For the record, the rest of the campaigns are also looking into internals and will tweak accordingly.

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 11:27 AM

7. Looking at the big picture

 

Hillary already has name recognition - she should be ahead....she has been around for decades and the thought of her as a presidential candidate has also been around for decades. Sanders in comparison has minimal name recognition. Given the positive exposure (Sanders has charisma, credibility, and says the right words) Sanders can only go up and Hillary can only go down....from a biased perspective

Hillary's negatives have always been of concern - within and outside her party. Should she win the primary, this will become a problem for her and the rest of us in the general election.

Thanks for doing the work of posting this....

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 11:31 AM

8. Ah, yes.

 

John Nichols @NicholsUprising

Quinnipiac Poll gives @BernieSanders 15%: higher than Bush, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Carson & all other R contenders.

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Response to peecoolyour (Reply #8)

Fri May 29, 2015, 11:57 AM

9. +1 n/t

 

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 12:00 PM

10. These polls mean little at this point

 

for all the names listed.

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Response to bigwillq (Reply #10)

Fri May 29, 2015, 01:13 PM

12. They mean little in terms of election results.

What they can tell you is where things stand now, and how that stand is changing now.

That leads to how campaigns will try and move the numbers in these polls. The tiny "don't know" in Clinton's favorability means it will be hard for her to move that favorability rating much. If Clinton can't move large numbers of "no" to "yes", she can't rely on a "reintroduction"-ish strategy. They already know who she is. So she's not going to do that, she's going to have to use another strategy. Currently, she's using inevitability.

Sanders (and O'Malley) is in a completely different situation. That large "don't know" means he needs to introduce himself to voters. And his challenge will be getting that introduction to be positive. The large increase in Sanders's support between the polls indicates that so far, Sanders is introducing himself positively. But he's done nowhere near enough of it.

But yes, the poll tells you jack shit about November 2016.

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 12:05 PM

11. I'd say everything is moving along just fine for HRC

 

, there is a lot of time for messaging and campaign promises and debates to even better her numbers. She's has got to screw up royally to get derailed. Something like a 47% Romney type of comment, or picking a Palin type of co runner, or some thing that has her walking back her current stand regarding her fight for rasiing mim wage, a new talking point on gutting ACA or walking back her strong immigration stand. I don't see any of that happening

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Response to Sheepshank (Reply #11)

Fri May 29, 2015, 01:24 PM

14. Team Clinton should be most concerned about that favorability rating.

First, there's very few undecided. That means she doesn't have much room to change it. People already like her or dislike her, and it's harder to change an established opinion than getting a "don't know" into "favorable".

Second, that favorability rating is underwater. That usually means the support is not very strong. "A mile wide and an inch deep". That indicates there's an opening for someone else to come along and vacuum up those unhappy supporters. If this was a "needs to screw up royally" situation, the favorability score would be much better.

Long story short, Clinton needs to "run out the clock" on the primaries. The sooner they end, the better for her. And the less exposure to all Democratic candidates in the media, the better for her. Because she's in front, and she's unlikely to gain more support because of that tiny "don't know" in favorability.

Sanders or O'Malley need the opposite: They need lots of exposure to get those "don't knows" into "favorable" in order to get reluctant Clinton supporters to switch. Basically, what Obama did in 2008.

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #14)

Fri May 29, 2015, 04:38 PM

15. Don't forget the trustworthyness score

That coupled with your cogent points is cause for concern.

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Response to hootinholler (Original post)

Fri May 29, 2015, 01:22 PM

13. Those numbers are just fine considering how the media has been pounding her the last few months.

In fact, based on those numbers, if the election were held today she would win, hands down.

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