The caucuses and primaries will determine who is the Democratic candidate

[Peacetrain]

Not a poll now or yesterday or a month from now.

Everyone thought John Edwards was going to sweep our local caucuses in my part of Iowa.. Did not happen..

Hillary was supposed to be the candidate no one could beat.. Did not happen.

My family was all over the place on who we were supporting in 2008. My son was the Biden captain.. Hubby and I were for Obama.. brother was for Clinton.

From a personal standpoint.. if I had taken to heart the press and the beltway people who have such a big voice.. I would never have thought we had a chance.

Its policy, and what is on peoples minds at the time of voting to pick our standard bearer that counts.

Not a lack of media exposure, or over media exposure etc etc.

[Cha]

1. Thanks from your on the ground analysis from Iowa, Peactrain!

[Peacetrain]

3. Hey Cha!!

You never know with Iowa.. that is for darned sure

[Cha]

5. Like 7 years ago?! I remember going to work the next day and saying.. "Obama won Iowa!"

I had just decided on him late December of 2007.

He had people on the ground.. knew what they doing!

[Peacetrain]

7. Cha I wish you could have seen the looks on peoples faces

as they realized that the corner where the Obama people started migrating too.. was filling up so fast..that is how we do it.. you go and stand in one part of the room where ever the person you support has their banner.. and you have to get 15% of the people present to even make it on the caucus final tally.. so the people who do not have the threshold then are lobbied by the people other people who have a candidate that is viable.. it is person to person..not some paid lobbyist in there.. we have to walk in knowing what our particular candidate stands for because we may have to try and convince someone else to come over to our side..

There were some people there who have a lot more pull than I ever dreamed of who could not believe their eyes.. as all these little old white people were walking over to the Obama corner..

Then Senator Obama came to this very red corner of Iowa and spent time with people.. and the consensus was.. he is one of us.. he understands our concerns..

So to all out there with a favorite person they like.. that person needs to visit all areas and not just the ones that will be the most conducive to their message.

[HassleCat]

2. Well said

In spite of the fact the media wants us to adhere to the conventional wisdom and not question who they designate, the primaries are unpredictable. There is no way to know if a dark horse candidate will suddenly catch fire.

[Peacetrain]

4. That is so true..

It is a wait and see thing..

[Lisa D]

6. The good news for Dems

is that we have three (so far) outstanding candidates this primary season.

[Peacetrain]

8. I agree Lisa.. we have excellent candidates..

[Jim Lane]

9. Alas, not completely. Don't forget the superdelegates.

A significant portion of the delegates (approximately 20% in 2008) will be given their Convention votes automatically. They're Democratic elected officials and a whole bunch of Party functionaries whom the vast majority of people couldn't even name.

I think a case can be made for giving automatic votes to Governors and members of Congress. They have at least been chosen in elections that have widespread participation, even though people weren't voting on the basis of a Presidential nomination that might be years away. The rule that I would change, though, is the one that gives automatic delegate status to all Democratic National Committee members.

Of course, that change would have to be approved by the very people who would lose their cushy slots. We're probably stuck with this rule.