Wisconsin Straw Poll: Clinton 49 Percent, Sanders 41 Percent - John Nichols/The Nation

[WillyT]

Wisconsin Straw Poll: Clinton 49 Percent, Sanders 41 Percent
John Nichols - The Nation
June 7, 2015 - 4:53 PM ET

<snip>

More than 500 Wisconsin Democrats participated in a presidential straw poll at their state party convention over the weekend, and they sent a powerful signal about the potential of the challenge Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is mounting to presumed Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.

Clinton still maintains a wide lead in national polls and in those from early battleground states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. But the delegates, alternates and registered guests at the Wisconsin party convention -- among the state's most activist Democrats -- gave Sanders 41 percent support to 49 percent for Clinton.

The breakdown of the straw poll vote, which was conducted by the well-regarded politics website www.wispolitics.com, was:

Hillary Clinton 252

Bernie Sanders 208

Joe Biden 16

Martin O’Malley 16

Jim Webb 8

Lincoln Chafee 5

No vote 1

(Write-ins)

Elizabeth Warren 4

Tom Vilsack 1

The senator has been a regular visitor to Wisconsin over the years, as a frequent speaker at the annual "Fighting Bob Fest" gatherings, which draw thousands of Wisconsin activists to outdoor events each September. He has lauded the legacy of former Wisconsin U.S. Senator Robert M. La Follette, who mounted an independent progressive campaign for the presidency in 1924, and of the democratic socialists who led Milwaukee for much of the 20th century. In recent years, he had worked with Ed Garvey, a former gubernatorial candidate, on a host of issues.

Perhaps most importantly, Sanders is an enthusiastic backer of organized labor – a stance that resonates with Wisconsin activists who, over the past four years, have battled the anti-union initiatives of the administration of Governor Scott Walker.

<snip>

More: http://www.thenation.com/blog/209353/wisconsin-straw-poll-clinton-49-percent-sanders-41-percent

[MohRokTah]

1. Straw polls definitely foretell the primaries and caucuses.

Just ask President Bachmann!

[Logical]

5. LOL, getting nervous. I don't blame you! nt

[Octafish]

2. That was fast.

Considerably narrowed the gap in just a few weeks.

[HereSince1628]

8. The delegates polled are people who are active and plugged in to politics and political media

They almost certainly are much more aware of Sanders than the general WI dem leaning voter.

I think the poll speaks to how getting his message out will greatly advance Sanders. The SW part of the state (which includes a healthy number of rural Dems) likely includes some Iowa media market share. I'll be interested to see how Sanders does in those counties.

[WillyT]

11. Yep... Funny How John Nichols And That Conservative Rag, 'The Nation', Are Easily Dismissed...

It's not like they've been following these things for some time now.

Whistling past the graveyard, no ???

[brooklynite]

19. And 2/3 of them expressed their opinion by not participating...

[HereSince1628]

22. Subsets are common in polling. The issue really isn't that everyone didn't participate

it'd be an extremely rare poll that reaches that standard.

The issue is really whether the subsample, which was self-selected, is to any degree representative of the whole.

Just as in GD polls, the respondents self-select and there is no control to be sure participants represent the larger population they are drawn from.

But, as it was published, the limits of the poll were stated so a reader who is awake and critical can and should incorporate those limites into interpretation of the poll results.

[Kalidurga]

3. And so the denial begins...

Hillary supports say this means nothing. I agree it doesn't mean Bernie is going to win the nomination or that he will have a real nation wide surge in the polls. But, it does mean that Wisconsin has a whole lot of people that are tired of the status quo. We will see if they rattle enough cages to make their discontent travel outside their borders.

ETA was typing as poster number one was and hit her reply button before I did. Can I call em or what?

[peacebird]

9. Yep, look at the posts below.....

You called it well!

[DURHAM D]

4. Has anyone explained why 2/3s of the attendees didn't vote? nt

[onehandle]

6. Somebody needs to update these 500 out of 5,750,000 about who is actually running.

Pretty sure Pat Paulsen is in there somewhere.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

7. Joe Walsh

The singer not the deadbeat ex congressman. Free gas for all.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. Well, everybody knows that The Nation is a right-wing rag on the Koch Bros payroll.

Or, sumpthin' like that.

[WillyT]

13. GMTA !!!

[WillyT]

14. Kick !!!

[Sheepshank]

16. Interesting

Wisconsin, is very strong pro labor, so they say. Yet Scott walker survives a recall and sit in office as strong as ever. So forgive me if a straw poll there doesn't mean much to me.

[WillyT]

17. You Are... Forgiven...

[HereSince1628]

18. You really think delegates to the WI dem convention voted for Walker? Really?

I find that to be a non sequitur, and an attempt to find some way to dismiss the result using an irrational substitution of an unrelated topic, i.e. application of a distraction, iow, a classic red-herring fallacy.

If you understood the limits of the poll you'd understand it's actually MUCH easier and much more rational to simply see the real limits of any generalizing of these poll results.

It's not a poll of a general cross section of WI voters. It's not a scientific poll undertaken with care to capture a random and representative cross-section. It's a voluntary poll of Dem activists at a convention, mostly intended to stimulate blog readers and initiate comments at the pollers website, pretty much like polls in GD. The result, turns out to be pretty similar to what such polls have looked like in GD.

The most general interpretation of this poll suggests only that a candidate not even included in the previous years convention straw poll can have a strong showing among convention attendees. IOW results of convention polls are dynamic and can have great variability between years.

A less general but pointed interpretation is that among dem activists who participated in the poll, Sanders had a strong following, a following much stronger than what shows up in national polling of dem leaning voters or the general population.

A more speculative interpretation, but probably one that is correct in its leaning, would be that among dem activists who participated in the poll, there is significant interest in a candidate that isn't viewed to be like the establishment dems who ran against and who lost to Walker.

I don't think any interpretation that approaches a reflection of reality would suggest that the straw poll is an indication of preference among convention attending dems who behaved in a manner that supported Walker's elections. This poll very simply doesn't incorporate opinions from and does not reflect Walker/anti-union preference among WI's republican leaning voters.

[Sheepshank]

20. while everything you said makes sense on paper or in theory....

...the end result is what I perceive as problematic. The majority of the voting public seems to have gone in a completely different direction than anticipated or expected.

IMHO Wisconsin is a bit of a wild card. It's not so much whether I think the polls are favorable or not to any particular candidate, it's that the final voting tally was much more conservative and I would ever have guessed.

[HereSince1628]

21. What's theoretical? Your comment is built around a red-herring

You posted a non sequitur that calls readers attention to an unrelated negative outcome. There's nothing theoretical about that.

There's nothing 'theoretical' about the possible alternative interpretations I presented. They are examples of where a reader gets to when the very real limits of the poll guide critical thinking.

[Sheepshank]

23. There was nothing theoretical about Walker and his office

There is nothing theoretical that Walker is batshit Republican. There's nothing theoretical that Walker won against the recall, and there is nothing theoretical about Walker and his election results. He won because he got the majority vote. A majority of Wisconsin constituency, voted in a conservative manner. I have no idea of their party affiliation, but they voted conservative.

Wisconsin was supposed to be all up in arms about the union busting. They were supposed to be all about unions and protecting them....when push came to shove, they didn't protect their unions...they did not vote in a progressive or liberal manner. They are unpredictable. You may not like it, but recent history...the actual history and not a straw poll, bears that out.