Bernie Sanders Can Win the Iowa Caucus - Brent Budowsky/NYObserver

[WillyT]

Bernie Sanders Can Win the Iowa Caucus
A new Democratic star is born
By Brent Budowsky - NYObserver
06/15/15 10:00am


Bernie Sanders on June 12, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa.(Photo: Getty Images)

<snip>

Let me be the first commentator to state explicitly what many Democratic insiders fear and many of the most progressive activists in the party yearn for: There is a very real prospect that Senator Bernie Sanders wins an outright victory in the Iowa caucus and pulls off one of the most stunning upsets in modern political history.

At this moment I would put the odds that Mr. Sanders upsets Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucus at nearly 40 percent. As someone who can fairly be called a Democratic insider myself, I can report that some of the smartest Democratic strategists in national politics privately believe this but will not publicly state it. I just did.

To fully understand the powerful forces at work within the Democratic Party and national politics, and why Bernie Sanders has suddenly vaulted to a clear second place in the race for the Democratic nomination, lets briefly consider political events in the three days that began last Friday and ended on Sunday.

First, on Friday, President Obama was rebuked by Democrats in the House of Representatives over the fast track trade legislation which led—at least for now—to the bill being defeated in the House.

Then, on Saturday, Hillary Clinton made a major speech in New York in which she echoed many of the themes of progressive populist Democrats while appearing to wrap herself around the political mantle of President Obama with language so compelling it gave credence to the Republican charge that she is running for the third Obama term. I would emphasize—and this is important—that while Clinton was embracing Obama, progressives remember that not long ago Obama was personally and politically insulting prominent progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which I have previously written about in the Observer.

Next, on Sunday, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Clinton were both campaigning in Iowa, where he again aggressively opposed the trade bill and she implied that she would be a stronger trade negotiator than the president but again took no position on the trade bill.

The common denominators during these three days were that Bernie Sanders took a position of conviction and purpose opposing the trade bill, while Hillary Clinton took a position that the Washington Post today correctly reported left her “a lot of wiggle room” by failing to take any position on the trade bill.

These three days, from Friday through Sunday, are a microcosm of the forces at work within the Democratic Party that began in Washington and arrived in the heart of Iowa during campaigning for the caucus vote by the frontrunner candidate and her closest competitor.

The reason that Bernie Sanders has a viable chance of defeating Clinton in the Iowa caucus is...

<snip>

More: http://observer.com/2015/06/bernie-sanders-can-win-the-iowa-caucus/

[frazzled]

1. I think he can, too

But it doesn't necessarily mean he (or any other candidate who would win Iowa) would necessarily win the nomination, or the presidency. Can he win Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas? Those are relevant questions.

What do Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan have in common?

These former presidents all lost in the Iowa caucuses, but won their party's nomination and, of course, the subsequent general elections.

What about Mike Huckabee, Dick Gephardt and Tom Harkin? They came in first in Iowa but failed to become their party's standard-bearer.

Iowa has always chosen its presidential candidates using caucuses, but the caucuses didn't achieve the significance currently attributed to them until 1972, when the Democratic Party moved the contest to the beginning of the year.

Since then, however, only three non-incumbent candidates who won Iowa have gone on to win the presidency.

Seven democrats in 10 caucuses who won in Iowa have ended up winning their party's nomination, according to the Des Moines Register. (Two were incumbents who ran unopposed.)

Six Republican winners in Iowa, out of nine contests there, have gone on to win the GOP nomination. (Three were incumbents who ran unopposed.)

So a win in Iowa can give a candidate momentum, but by no means guarantees the party's nomination.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/03/past-iowa-caucus-winners_n_1182148.html

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

3. That's what the primaries will tell us.

After all, if Clinton can't even beat Bernie in the primaries, she wasn't going to win the general anyway. She'll likely be outspending him 10-1 as it is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The last six presidents have won the South Carolina primary.

[BrotherIvan]

8. What about California, New York and Florida?

Can he win those states? YES HE CAN. I would add all of the western and eastern coasts. He will win all the states that a Democrat can win in the general.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It appears he has some work to do

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

[BrotherIvan]

11. Fair enough

But the tide is turning and deep blue states are up for grabs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That's a fair response...Polls are only as relevant as the time they were taken.

Polls can change but to argue at this very moment that HRC is in danger of losing is disingenuous.

[BrotherIvan]

13. I don't disagree

She is still far ahead. And I will go further to say that like the goddess that is Serena Williams, the only person who can beat Serena is Serena. Same for Hillary. I personally think Hillary should run on her strengths, not run away from them. Her campaign managers are not doing her a great service.

[roguevalley]

21. Serena is awesome indeed.

[Comrade Grumpy]

15. ...and we're a year out. n/t

[randys1]

30. Where was Obama at this time before 2008? Similar I bet ya.

Over the next year if Bernie keeps up this level of attention, he will gain and gain and gain.

Hillary has to be in lockstep with his populist positions to maintain her lead.

Either way WE win.

There is NO way Hillary wins the election on populist ideas then turns her back, she wont do it, she has no reason to.

But I think Bernie can win anyway...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. On Saturday I saw somebody on CNN cite a 6/07 NBC nat'l poll where BHO was fourteen points behind .

Here is where Senator Sanders stands now:




http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary.

[tblue37]

42. But it will give him a podium and megaphone to push the Dems to the left, toward

the principles our party supposedly stands for.

[arcane1]

2. It's almost as if hollow platitudes don't work any more.

[WillyT]

4. LOL !!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. They seem to be working very well Mr. Budowsky's musings notwithstanding.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls

[Gregorian]

9. Yeah, where's Ronald Reagan when you need him?

What I never expected was for Democrats to do the same.

Shit, we deserve to be excited about Bernie. We've waited long enough...

[Indepatriot]

19. Drops the mic....

[monmouth4]

5. I keep thinking of Truman vs. Dewey. It could happen...n/t

[Dems to Win]

14. I predict Bernie will WIN Iowa and New Hampshire

Straight talk from a guy I am certain is on my side is very, very appealing. And it makes the weaselly, squirelly, never-give-a-straight-answer-to-a-question talk from the presumed front runner sound awfully bad in comparison.

Feel The Bern

[LordGlenconner]

43. I think he will too

And I think he'll also do well in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and probably Oregon and Washington.

But I think he'll lose just about everywhere else.

[BeyondGeography]

16. Iowans are thorough

I've been very impressed with their judgments in 2004 and 2008. They take their time, get a lot of up-close time with the candidates and their thinking doesn't become clear until pretty late in the process.

I have no idea what's going to happen, and will not be taking any polling seriously until December. Can't see how anyone has a clear view right now.

[SaranchaIsWaiting]

28. If they are thorough, Bernie wins.

[Jefferson23]

17. Thanks, WillyT. I wish I lived in Iowa..for awhile anyway. lol

I have friends who were attending Grinnell College during the 2008 campaign...they met
everyone..all the candidates.

[WillyT]

32. You Are Quite Welcome !!!

[KoKo]

18. Interesting...I thought I read an article from him a couple weeks ago that Hillary would be the

best candidate for Democrats.

I must have mis-rememered.

So this is interesting...

[cantbeserious]

20. I Will No Longer Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go

eom

[Indepatriot]

22. Integrity is in short supply in the political arena.

People know it when they see it. The more Senator Sanders gets his message out, the more Americans will be drawn to his integrity. I'll go ahead right now and say it: Bernie Sanders will be the next President of The United States.

[Tashca]

23. Never a doubt in my mind

I just did not think anyone would notice so quickly.

The Clinton's historically do not fair well here.

[Art_from_Ark]

24. Thanks for the article, Willy

[WillyT]

33. Anytime, Art_from_Ark... Anytime...

[johnnyreb]

25. We will rise again.

[BeanMusical]

26. Kick and R

[ancianita]

27. That would be something, wouldn't it?

[Ed Suspicious]

29. Then we're going to New Hampshire, then South Carolina

Then Nevada!! YEAHHARRGG!! All good, just don't get Deaned. Lord knows the media will be looking for an opportunity to sink him.



Give'em he'll, Bernie.

[CharlotteVale]

34. K&R

[MohRokTah]

35. I simply do not see it happening. eom

[LWolf]

36. I have a broad enough vision to see him winning.

The reason that Bernie Sanders has a viable chance of defeating Clinton in the Iowa caucus is that caucus elections involve a far smaller pool of voters than primary elections.

Read more at http://observer.com/2015/06/bernie-sanders-can-win-the-iowa-caucus/#ixzz3dBLsjBs4
Follow us: @newyorkobserver on Twitter | newyorkobserver on Facebook

[WillyT]

37. Evening Kick !!!

[morningfog]

38. It's looking good. This is a marathon.

Iowa and NH will reframe the narrative. Bernie is working hard in each state. Good to see this kind of recognition.

[WillyT]

39. EXACTLY !!!

[WillyT]

40. Morning Kick !!!

[tblue37]

41. This!

From the linked article:

I believe it is profoundly helpful, for Democrats and for America, that Mr. Sanders is bringing his integrity, passion, sincerity and progressive principles to center stage in the presidential campaign. It is good for Democrats and for America that new people are being inspired to join the political process which can only revitalize our democracy.

Read more at http://observer.com/2015/06/bernie-sanders-can-win-the-iowa-caucus/#ixzz3dF1hHUNy