CBS/NYT Poll: Romney By 3

[ProSense]

CBS/NYT Poll: Romney By 3

A new national poll from CBS News and the New York Times shows former Massachusetts Gov. and likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney with a 3 point lead, 46 percent to 43 percent overall. The internals of the poll show Romney leading with men by 3 points, women by 2, and taking unaffiliated voters by 7. The TPM Poll Average shows Romney with a 1.9 percent lead at the moment.

“Romney now leads the President among independents; they were nearly tied among this group last month,” pollsters wrote in their analysis. “Obama beats Romney among moderates. Both candidates continue to perform well with their political base: the President gets solid support from Democrats and liberals, while Romney is running strong with Republicans and conservatives. More than seven in 10 white evangelicals are backing Romney – similar to last month.”

However, the poll was conducted in a different way than most surveys – pollsters interviewed registered voters that were surveyed by CBS/NYT in their April poll and called them back, which lessens the amount of people that can (and want to be) reached, which could give more weight to enthusiastic voters who want to give their opinion.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/cbs-nyt-poll-romney-by-3

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Romney leads Obama among registered voters, 46 percent to 43 percent. While this is the first time that Romney had led in the CBS News/New York Times poll, his lead is within the poll's margin of error for registered voters of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The poll is actually a panel-back survey: Respondents to this poll were originally interviewed in mid-April for the previous CBS News/New York Times poll. In the mid-April survey, Obama and Romney ran dead even, with each candidate earning 46 percent of the vote.

Panel-back surveys are conducted for a number of reasons: Some pollsters occasionally consider it instructive to interview the same universe of people before and after a specific event. In other cases, it is simply cheaper to dial phone numbers behind which pollsters know are voters who are willing to answer public-opinion surveys; in doing so, pollsters avoid many of the nearly four-in-five adults who decline to participate in telephone polls.

But the practice also has drawbacks. Not every respondent to the original poll is available or willing to be interviewed again; indeed, of the 852 registered voters interviewed last month, just 562 were re-interviewed for this survey. Some analysts also believe that the experience of being interviewed previously affects how they view the race, potentially making them more likely to seek out information about politics and the presidential race, though the results of the poll are virtually identical to those of the previous survey.

- more -

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/romney-edges-obama-in-panel-back-survey-20120514

"Romney By 3" if you stand on your head, close one eye and try to focus on a sign five yards away that says: "WTF?"

Poll this way!

[n2doc]

1. Oh yeah, Women gonna flock to his platform

"Please, please take away my rights, Mittens!"

[rfranklin]

2. I think we should err on the side of caution until the networks announce Obama the winner...

For instance, this a poll of likely voters. As you know there is a huge Republican effort to block as many Dem voters as possible this time. There will also be the usual misdirection through robotic calls and flyers sending people to the wrong polling places on the wrong day. Then there are the vagaries of electronic voting. There are a lot of things that can steal this election.

[Dawson Leery]

3. Rmoney is now leading with women?

The corporate media is at it again.

[Egalitarian Thug]

4. There's just no way in hell that the M$M is going to not make

this a horse race, Rmoney could be indicted for owning and running a slavery operation while being photographed making a blood offering to Satan, and somehow the polls will put him within the margin of error.

[Dawson Leery]

5. CBS admits this poll is incomplete as they re-interviewed the same people

from last months poll. Many of those people were not available for the interview.

[RBInMaine]

6. Romney over Obama with women? This is ABSOLUTE SHIT ! Corporate SHIT ! What CRAP !

[KoKo]

7. Romney is hanging by threads...We all know Obama is going to win Re-election...

and that's why it's hard to take this MSM stuff seriously since we know who is pushing it.

Obama is going to WIN...and that's why we Dems have to keep after him to keep him "honest."

It's our job to do this.

It's what he asked us to do when he ran for President.

[Marzupialis]

8. One day I will stop feeling sorry for the American voter

Voters elected George W. Bush; no surprise if Romney were elected by dumb-ass voters.

[Zax2me]

9. Bring it on! Then, when Obama wins by 10 points....

I will revel in the MSM corporate whores running for the hills post election.

[abolugi]

10. Snip Rmoney HAS to win Ohio

in order to even have a chance of getting to 270.
Obama is creaming him in the electoral math.

And no way in HELL is he ahead with women...
Although I noticed CNN ran with it all day...

[rufus dog]

11. Is the poll used as the baseline the one where CBS used a voter turnout from the 2010 election

Which way overstates Republicans? The only thing that scares me is they don't even try to hide the lies.

[tritsofme]

12. More relevant data point from this survey: Obama job approval @ 50%

Horserace numbers are pretty meaningless at this point.

[ProSense]

13. Beyond that, the "survey" is BS. n/t

[Arkana]

18. Which makes me wonder--how is his job approval at 50%

if he's only getting 43% of the vote?

No one is going to make the pollsters answer these questions. Instead, what the media will do is start with the "HORSE RACE!" meme.

[BlueDemKev]

14. May hasn't been a good month for us

We seem to be slightly trailing in most major polls. We can knock the CBS/NYT poll, but CBS and the NYT are not exactly pro-Republican.

Of course, there is still plenty of time to turn things around, and of course, all that matters at the end of the day is the electoral vote count. But the Obama camp may need to step back and reassess its game plan a little bit.

[ProSense]

15. This

"We seem to be slightly trailing in most major polls. We can knock the CBS/NYT poll, but CBS and the NYT are not exactly pro-Republican."

...is what we can "knock': "However, the poll was conducted in a different way than most surveys..."

It's a bullshit poll.

[BlueDemKev]

17. Maybe so, but....

....it doesn't help our campaign when people see these numbers and start thinking "Oh well, Obama is going down fast. Most women are supporting Romney even after all the hype about a 'war against women'...."

I haven't seen very many polls the last two weeks showing the president comfortably ahead.

[WI_DEM]

16. Couldn't CBS & the Times pay for a real poll? this one is BS